Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[conon394]

Hm! Yes, but warscore in Vic II keeps rising even if you control just a few of the provinces that make up the region ^^ So maybe combined it still gives them enough for one smaller region?

Never got around to Vicy 2. So not as bad in EU4 when you are hope for a short victorious and accidentally picked/got/have a fortified province as your fabricated claim for a war.

[Kyriakos]

Yes, In Vic those regions break up into multiple provinces, so chances are not all will be massively fortified

[Alastor]

I would say that comparing this conflict to a Vic2 game is in bad taste, since real lives are at stake. But then again all this kill count bragging, coupled with detailed pictures of how much damage has each side dealt the other that are flooding official social media accounts have already turned this into a game long ago. So yeah, nothing out of the ordinary to see here.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

What offensive? Didn’t Russian Command just order a ceasefire for Christmas?

You think Putin's Russia would ever honour a promise/agreement/anything? A bit late to start now innit?

[Kyriakos]

I would say that comparing this conflict to a Vic2 game is in bad taste, since real lives are at stake. But then again all this kill count bragging, coupled with detailed pictures of how much damage has each side dealt the other that are flooding official social media accounts have already turned this into a game long ago. So yeah, nothing out of the ordinary to see here.

And at least no one is killed in a game metaphor. Unlike actual war news bragging :S

[Cyclops]

Truth is an elusive concept in Russia, they can both have a ceasefire and an offensive at the same time. No problem here.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/li...ceasefire-live

...and as it was written, so it was.

No doubt Russian shills have a screed provided about how Ukrainians fired on their own positions or some nonsense.

I wonder if Russia has rhe command integrity to even deliver a ceasefire if they wanted too. Im not suggesting they are a leaderless rabble just yet, but theres a variety of forces, mostly low morale, including Nazi-worshipping Wagner mercenaries and brigands posing as pretend militia. The latter have shot down civilian airliners, so they've proved themselves to be out of control before.

[Mithradates]

You bet I will...

It's just the 319 day of Putin's 3 day war, so let's not jump to conclusions about who is winning and who has lost the war on day 4.

Lmao. I don't watch news at all I'm afraid. Ukraine is winning, because all Russia has done since July is retreat. But yeah, they've made some progress in 1 village (Soledar) today. Truly impressive.

Yep, Soledar is still a grey zone. (I highly recommend this channel)

[Laser101]

If you look at 2014 more closely, then you'll see that territory, controlled by Ukraine changed quite drastically over time. At first separatists gain a lot of ground - they just moved armed groups into new settlement, kicked out local administration and claimed place for their own. What support? They didn't care much. And after ukrainian forces came, those settlements returned into Ukraine just as easily.
Did you know what even in Donetsk peoples lived peacefully and under still working ukrainian administration up till 16 jule? Yeah, 3 months after the start of armed confrontation in some places, 2 months after so called referendum for independence. Peoples might support "peaceful annexation like in Crimea" (and no, not all of them, probably not even majority), but no one wanted to go to war with Ukraine. Russian paramilitary forces made them.

And no, russian proxy groups failed to win against army (even tho it was in really sorry state then) in the end. Only use of russian army forces at the end of august-september defeated ukrainian army. And then, in 2014, they take as much ground as Russia wanted. They could have more - it's not question of population support, only military plans at the moment.

I didn't say they had much support, and given events it seems like support in the Donbas was non-zero but rather weak.

On the other hand, recent Ukrainian government rhetoric regarding Crimea has suggested 'decolonization' of the peninsula, which combined with implausibly inflated claims regarding Russian immigration since 2014 starts to sound like pretext for ethnic cleansing.

As to why I care about that, the simple answer is that a sizable portion of Western support for Ukraine has been based off a desire to protect Ukrainian civilians from Russian atrocities, justifiably enough. But if the Ukrainians start committing the same atrocities against Russians, then that justification looks extremely hollow. It also makes demands for 'justice' look extremely one-eyed; if you want a principle to be worth anything, then it needs to be upheld even when it is not convenient.

[Nebaki]

I didn't say "any day now", I specifically predicted late Dec/early Jan (go reread my posts).
Based on some research and accounts of family/friends close to the warzone...seems I was fairly spot on.

[Stario]

And now the heir of stalin - putin repeats the same path of his, with repression and war. A russian nationalist, if he is thinking, will always be an enemy of putin's regime.

In a nutshell:
1. We have to remember it was the Ukranians shelling Donetsk and Luhansk independent republics since 2014.
2. It was the Ukranians that violated 'Minsk' agreement.
3. Azov is neo nazi organisation banned by murica in the past (yet now we are supposed to support Azov!?).
4. Russia wanted ethnically Russian Ukranian citizens to be treated as equals w Ukranian citizens. Again Zelensky refused and made it difficult for them to speak their own language (Russian), build their own churches etc. Zelensky even said to the Russians in Ukraine "Ukranian'ize" (if that's even a world but I think you get the gist) or leave.
The problem is we are human beings and one can't simply force human beings to give up their own culture, their own language or stop them from practising their own religion.
This is the kind of stuff that leads to conflict. And now (w murica's meddling), the Zelensky regime is reaping what they sowed imo...

judging by the avatar, do you support stalin...

I dunno...what do you think? I got Stalin doning Mario pants w suspenders. Does that SCREAM!!! Support!?

What offensive? Didn’t Russian Command just order a ceasefire for Christmas?

No Ukranians denied ceasefire and so...
"On and on through the years.
The war continues on.
Why can't we see the truth?
We are all one"...

[Loyt]

On the other hand, recent Ukrainian government rhetoric regarding Crimea has suggested 'decolonization' of the peninsula, which combined with implausibly inflated claims regarding Russian immigration since 2014 starts to sound like pretext for ethnic cleansing.

Can you give the source for that info? Because earlier they said "all Crimean residents before 2014 can stay, all new residents after annexation should be approved individually first" (checking theirs political views and background). Obviously peoples actively helping russian military, FSB or involved in russian politics will be in trouble too - that's also expected. But decolonization?

But if the Ukrainians start committing the same atrocities against Russians, then that justification looks extremely hollow.

True. But will they start? As of now, it doesn't seem probable.

[Loyt]

In a nutshell:
1. We have to remember it was the Ukranians shelling Donetsk and Luhansk independent republics since 2014.

Lies. Most shellings happened during active fighting in 2014-early 2015. After that number of civilian victims dropped drastically and have been reducing every year. And most of those were victims of landmines and custom explosive traps, not artillery.

2. It was the Ukranians that violated 'Minsk' agreement.

Both sides did. No one removed heavy artillery as they suppose to do, for example.
And assault on Debaltseve happened, russians so love to forget, that it was ukrainian territory by Minsk agreements.

3. Azov is neo nazi organisation banned by murica in the past (yet now we are supposed to support Azov!?).

It was at first, then it was volunteer batallion. In 2015 it was reformed and made part of state armed forces, loosing its controvercial political views.

4. Russia wanted ethnically Russian Ukranian citizens to be treated as equals w Ukranian citizens.

They are treated equally. Russia wanted full control over Ukraine, everything else is just excuses.

Again Zelensky refused and made it difficult for them to speak their own language (Russian), build their own churches etc.

There are no bans on russian speach, and Zelensky has no power over that churches do.
By the way, even after Poroshenko promoted getting tomos and authonomy for ukrainian ortodox church, most of churches under Moscow Pariarchy stayed as they was. It only started to change after war started - you can rely on Putin to achieve results completely opposite to that he claimed as his goals.

Zelensky even said to the Russians in Ukraine "Ukranian'ize" (if that's even a world but I think you get the gist) or leave.
The problem is we are human beings and one can't simply force human beings to give up their own culture, their own language or stop them from practising their own religion.

The only thing required from all citizen of Ukraine is learning ukrainian language (and even that is not strictly nessesary, you could live without alright). I remind you, same requirement exists in Russia too.
Zelensky himself didn't know ukrainian language before his presidency, it's not that hard to learn, especially since it's closely related to russian. And of course it's not a tragedy, if your children will learn second language in school. No one forces no one to give up their own culture or language.
And about religion - that's just ridiculous. You realize, that ukrainian ortodoxy and russian ortodoxy are the same religion?

[Nebaki]

In a nutshell:
1. We have to remember it was the Ukranians shelling Donetsk and Luhansk independent republics since 2014.

[Laser101]

Can you give the source for that info? Because earlier they said "all Crimean residents before 2014 can stay, all new residents after annexation should be approved individually first" (checking theirs political views and background). Obviously peoples actively helping russian military, FSB or involved in russian politics will be in trouble too - that's also expected. But decolonization?

True. But will they start? As of now, it doesn't seem probable.

I suppose that will be the test if they do succeed.

[StarDreamer]

Ah yes the famous "independent" Russian puppet republics. Almost as independent as the famous DDR was democratic.

[Nebaki]

2. It was the Ukranians that violated 'Minsk' agreement.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Skips the part when Russia acknowledged his own Puppet States which it had created on Ukrainian territory and that followed a full-scale Invasion.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

In a nutshell:
1. We have to remember it was the Ukranians shelling Donetsk and Luhansk independent republics since 2014.

Since 2016 and until the Russian invasion 365 civilians died, on both sides combined, over the span of over 5 years. The fighting against the separatist republics over the 2 years it took place, 2014-2015, led to about 15k deaths in total, both sides combined and including combatants.
Let's compare that to how Russia dealt with separatists: When the Chechen republic of Ichkeria declared independence Russia fought two wars. The first lasted 1 year and 8 months, and resulted in up to 100,000 dead civilians according to the UN, and up to 40,000 according to Russia.
Russia lost, but came back for round 2. This lasted for 8 months, and led to another somehwere between 30,000 and 80,000 dead civilians.
If you think that 15,000 dead on both sides combined from an insurrection is cause for invasion you must think that Russia should be wiped off of the face of the earth, right?

2. It was the Ukranians that violated 'Minsk' agreement.

Both sides violated the Minsk agreement.

3. Azov is neo nazi organisation banned by murica in the past (yet now we are supposed to support Azov!?).

That was 2014 Azov, not the Azov that exists today. Azov has been made a proper part of the military, no longer a separate organisation, and extremist elements have largely been either removed or have lost traction. Azov, btw, numbered 2500 men before the invasion. Yes, that's literally it.

4. Russia wanted ethnically Russian Ukranian citizens to be treated as equals w Ukranian citizens. Again Zelensky refused and made it difficult for them to speak their own language (Russian), build their own churches etc. Zelensky even said to the Russians in Ukraine "Ukranian'ize" (if that's even a world but I think you get the gist) or leave.

In what way is it difficult to speak the Russian language in Ukraine? You joking mate? Maybe now due to the invasion as there's an ever growing anti-Russian sentiment, but Zelenskyy himself is a native Russian speaker.

The problem is we are human beings and one can't simply force human beings to give up their own culture, their own language or stop them from practising their own religion.

Tell that to Putin, because that's literally the goal of this invasion, if you've not been paying attention (it's okay, we know you haven't).

[Nebaki]

Maybe someone can enlight us about Wagner Group and why the heck someone got more of these kind People especially what they define as "Neonazi" today.

3. Azov is neo nazi organisation banned by murica in the past (yet now we are supposed to support Azov!?).

Azov was only more organized and developed anti-russianism in the first attempt of Russian Invasion.

[Loyt]

Azov was only more organized and developed anti-russianism in the first attempt of Russian Invasion.

Not really true, they had indeed a lot of neo-nazi contingent at the start. And organization quality wasn't good either, there was many bad incidents involving them, which could be considered as war crimes in 2014. Self-commanding militia forces are not known for the great discipline. Those problems were ammended later on, but they stained reputation of "Azov" for a long time.

Ironically, despite being pictured as pro-Bandera nazi in russian propaganda, it was not the case with "Azov". Those were primarily "slavic nazi" (white power, arians, triune rus nation - that kind of crap), and they had many relations with similar groups and movements in Russia. Until invasion - then all ties with Russia were cut off. And yeah, they had a lot of ethnical russians in their ranks right from the start.

[Nebaki]

they had indeed a lot of neo-nazi contingent at the start.

Nothing similar to be compared what Russia has to offer under his Command. It was literally a wannabe Community of White-Supremacist which already evolved into a Multi-Ethnic-Force thanks to actions from Russia