View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    92 69.17%
  • I support Russia fully.

    14 10.53%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 3.01%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    8 6.02%
  • Not sure.

    7 5.26%
  • I don't care.

    8 6.02%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #6681
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    My friend nhytgbvfeco2 ( (ven among friends it is possible to strongly disagree) must be the only Israeli citizen not to realize that Israel non- intervention policy is a strategic imperative.
    Highly informative!


    ----
    There is not a single Israeli government with common sense that wants to antagonize Russia, whatever it may be.

    Analysts Split on Whether Criticism of Russia by Israel's Lapid

    “Lapid made a relatively cautious move in the hopes that it wouldn’t affect ties even though he made less than complimentary comments and received a less then complimentary response,” Zvi Magen, a research fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies, said.
    “We must remember that Israel is not providing Ukraine with weapons and has not joined sanctions against Russia,” added Magen, who was Israel’s ambassador to Ukraine from 1993 to 1997, and ambassador to Russia from 1998 to 1999.
    Prof. Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security...argued. “We should continue our policy of opacity in this conflict because Israel has an interest in the north and Russia is our neighbor. We don’t want to have an angry neighbor.”
    Finally, comparing a hypothetical invasion of Portugal by Spain with the causes that led to the Ukrainian war is a completely inappropriate argument. To the (anti-fascist, I know) Spaniard who brought this unfortunate argument here, I must remind him that he should concern himself more with the Catalan Independence Movement, and less with absurd comparisons, which aim to divert attention from the causes that led to the Ukrainian war.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une me perverse. Cest d'avoir une me habitue
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing.
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  2. #6682

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Dissing people when a given comparison is not convenient for your narrative is not exactly a good argument. Trying to shift focus to an non-comparable example is even a worse one. Ukraine is a sovereign state with internationally recognized borders. One that let go its major defense deterrence just to appease Russia in the past.
    The Armenian Issue
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    "We're nice mainly because we're rich and comfortable."

  3. #6683
    nhytgbvfeco2's Avatar Praefectus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    My friend nhytgbvfeco2 ( (ven among friends it is possible to strongly disagree) must be the only Israeli citizen not to realize that Israel non- intervention policy is a strategic imperative.
    Highly informative!
    It's really not, though. Russia's entire sphere of influence is on fire. Azerbaijan literally invaded Armenia proper and remains within it's territory, yet instead of it triggering a response by CSTO Russia is so bogged down in Ukraine that all it could manage was a slap on the wrist. Israel could do whatever it wants in Syria right now and Russia wouldn't lift a finger.
    There is not a single Israeli government with common sense that wants to antagonize Russia, whatever it may be.
    Except mr flip flop, apparently. Not that I think he will, mind.
    Finally, comparing a hypothetical invasion of Portugal by Spain with the causes that led to the Ukrainian war is a completely inappropriate argument. To the (anti-fascist, I know) Spaniard who brought this unfortunate argument here, I must remind him that he should concern himself more with the Catalan Independence Movement, and less with absurd comparisons, which aim to divert attention from the causes that led to the Ukrainian war.
    Personally I think Spain should occupy Porto, and then armed troops can rally the locals by going door to door with guns in hand, and have them vote on whether they want to become part of the Spanish province of Galicia. Of course out of the 20,000 potential voters who would remain in the occupied territory after such an occupation 400,000 will participate in the vote (a voter turnout of 98.9%, naturally) with a 99.3% voting in favour.

  4. #6684

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Why find it reasonable for Russia to give up even Crimea? They sort of clearly won the 2014 war.
    A compromise would be to give up the rest, but get de jure recognition for Crimea.
    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    To approve of this action is to acknowledge that countries can get away with doing it. It sets a new precedent.
    And a very dangerous precedent. I cannot believe someone actually defends Russia's interest because their aggression was a success. If that is a majority sentiment in Greece, I think the west should push for a compromise that Turkey keeps the Greek islands and Eastern Macedonia, while Greece keeps the rest. I mean they sort of clearly won the 2027 invasion.

  5. #6685
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    And a very dangerous precedent. I cannot believe someone actually defends Russia's interest because their aggression was a success. If that is a majority sentiment in Greece, I think the west should push for a compromise that Turkey keeps the Greek islands and Eastern Macedonia, while Greece keeps the rest. I mean they sort of clearly won the 2027 invasion.
    You are from 2027 now? Then I guess you should wait till then to post about it, unless you want to mess with the space-time-seriousness continuum
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  6. #6686
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    You are from 2027 now? Then I guess you should wait till then to post about it, unless you want to mess with the space-time-seriousness continuum
    They're suggesting what will happen if we go back to disputing borders like the 19th century in a way that you might understand.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM

  7. #6687
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I understood it fine, no need for the stupid Turkey-Greece junk to be in this thread; it's offtopic if not worse.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  8. #6688

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It illustrates glaring hypocrisy though.
    The Armenian Issue
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    "We're nice mainly because we're rich and comfortable."

  9. #6689
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I understood it fine, no need for the stupid Turkey-Greece junk to be in this thread; it's offtopic if not worse.
    "Then I guess you should wait till then to post about it, unless you want to mess with the space-time-seriousness continuum"

    - You didn't seem to get it.

    The point is that allowing Russia to unilaterally attack and seize territory off neighbours would set a precedent. In this scenario, it is acceptable to look at what that precedent might mean in practice. To look at the consequences of allowing Russia's action to stand by illustrating how it might impact on other territorial disputes around the world.

    In this context, not only is it on-topic, but it is arguably the most important and essential part of the topic.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM

  10. #6690

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    My comparison indeed was a last-ditch effort to try to appeal to the good sense of a fellow debater.

    I am not sure if a similar practice exists in other cultures or the English-language debate internationally, but one Finnish politician I respect has been a proponent of a a practice he called, roughly translated, "replacing the replaceables". To test the moral and intellectual integrity of your thoughts, beliefs, and claims, you should frequently assess them with key parties reversed or changed. You can learn a lot about your own prejudices and skewed perceptions that way and avoid glaring hypocrisy, as POVG accurately described it.

  11. #6691
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    On my part, I think it best to not attempt to pontificate as to what the other poster can or cannot do. That said, it's not like I have anything against you, Septen Just struggle to imagine a scenario where I'd personally need to focus on the tiniest dx so as to realize you were going for a derivative.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  12. #6692

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    I machine translated and manually corrected (in a cursory fashion) part five in a series of blog posts on the problems of the Russian military. It is written by an ethnic Russian politician and academic living in Finland called Andrey Sergeyev. This part is about corruption in the Russian military and society and highlights what the practical consequences of the Russian kind of corruption are, as witnessed in the war at hand. I very much recommend reading it.
    Here is another piece by the same politician on why Russia seems dead set to finish the war quickly when concerns of military efficiency would dictate him to take his time. I recommend reading the previous one as well, if you haven't.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    I will return to the discussion that the Kremlin is apparently aiming for a relatively quick military solution in Ukraine instead of gathering its forces and trying again in the spring.

    Or at least that's what you can conclude from the fact that worn out units are not pulled out to get rest and be replenished, but are thrown back into the frying pan. Also, new recruits conscripted in the mobilization are not properly trained or equipped, but are instead sent out to the front lines right away.

    The Kremlin has clearly become aware that Russia is not capable of conducting a prolonged war, but that some critical resources are bound to run out. Later history alone will reveal what exactly is the Kremlin's situation right now, but along with the ammunition shortage and equipment problems, at least the following factors will certainly be known.

    First, the death of technology. When Western imports stopped, the conditions for continuing production also ended for much of the Russian industry. There are no more components for industrial products, but also no spare parts for the equipment that are used in manufacturing those products.

    The situation in the aviation industry is illustrative. When Putin seized the planes leased from Western countries, aviation technology experts circled the date on their calendars when some of these stolen planes would have to be dismantled for spare parts for others. So that even a part of them could be kept in the air.

    And those experts were absolutely right. That date was in August and the planes have already been "cannibalized". Sooner or later, Russian domestic planes will start falling from the sky.

    A similar cycle of gradual disintegration is now underway throughout Russia. Special elevators, industrial machines and equipment... Everything is soon капут. Including the equipment of the oil industry, of which Russia is completely dependent.

    Another phenomenon is the shocking loss of population. Putin has not tried in any way to prevent leaving Russia. Even more, he has emphasized in his speeches that if dear Mother Russia is not to your liking, then you can get the hell out. But apparently he didn't realize how many people would actually choose the latter option.

    Since the beginning of the mobilization, up to 900,000 people have left Russia. The next even number is a million. The scale of this population flight is beyond comprehension.

    And, of course, those who leave are exactly those who would be needed within the country. That is, people who have the education, skills, health, and financial means to leave. In other words, there will soon be only babushkas and burlaks left on the Russian labor market.

    Good luck running a war economy with that.
    Last edited by Septentrionalis; December 11, 2022 at 03:25 PM.

  13. #6693
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Thx Sep.

    This level of damage to Russia is bad for everyone.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  14. #6694

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post

    Russia is in dire need of weapons and now their legendary arms dealer is back in the business again.
    You do understand that he doesn't just wave his hands and tanks appear out of thin air? His network has long since been compromised or taken over by others. He is a nobody.

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    And a very dangerous precedent. I cannot believe someone actually defends Russia's interest because their aggression was a success.
    And the apologists have never given us any indication that their craven appeasement has a limit. If Russia gets Ukraine because the apologists give it to them, what's to stop them from demanding Poland next? Or Germany? Or the dissolution of NATO? Why not just cut out the middle and crown Putin dictator over all of humanity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post

    This level of damage to Russia is bad for everyone.
    Disagree. The best thing to happen would be the collapse of Russia into fifty or so mutually hostile states that are to busy fighting each other too threaten the rest of us.

  15. #6695

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    "Then I guess you should wait till then to post about it, unless you want to mess with the space-time-seriousness continuum"

    - You didn't seem to get it.

    The point is that allowing Russia to unilaterally attack and seize territory off neighbours would set a precedent. In this scenario, it is acceptable to look at what that precedent might mean in practice. To look at the consequences of allowing Russia's action to stand by illustrating how it might impact on other territorial disputes around the world.

    In this context, not only is it on-topic, but it is arguably the most important and essential part of the topic.
    It depends on what the precedent is, exactly. Ukraine itself has not been completely consistent on questions of principle; for instance the recent push to recognize Chechnya/Ichkeria as occupied and a similar draft resolution regarding Tatarstan. The problem is that this shoots themselves in the foot a bit because recognizing ethnic separatism sets an awkward precedent for their own situation regarding Crimea. On the other hand, if as has been previously insisted the borders of the former SSRs constitute the basis of the post-Soviet national borders, then there isn't much grounds for supporting Chechen independence.

    Of course, all of the above is equally true for the Russians.

  16. #6696
    mishkin's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    The best thing to happen would be the collapse of Russia into fifty or so mutually hostile states that are to busy fighting each other too threaten the rest of us.
    Said in this way, it seems that we are indifferent to the sufferings of the russians and that we consider them something like rabid dogs incapable of more than fighting and rejoicing in misery.

  17. #6697
    EmperorBatman999's Avatar I say, what, what?
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    Disagree. The best thing to happen would be the collapse of Russia into fifty or so mutually hostile states that are to busy fighting each other too threaten the rest of us.
    In this scenario, where will the nukes go? Russia is a rational actor when it comes to its nuclear doctrine, but the same cannot be said for any hypothetical warlords, who might sell off the weapons for quick cash, or deploy them against one another to gain an advantage in the succession crisis.

  18. #6698

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by EmperorBatman999 View Post
    In this scenario, where will the nukes go? Russia is a rational actor when it comes to its nuclear doctrine,
    I suppose we don't even know for sure where they are and whether the warlords would be able to use them. This kind of situation could perhaps somehow allow us to deactivate some of them. By buying them off or somehow else. It is clear that even if they are a rational actor in the sense of not (yet) starting a nuclear war, just their belief they are entitled to reduce countries to rubble and threaten others with nukes makes them definitely not a responsible enough an actor to have nuclear weapons. Nuclear disarmament of Russia may be prohibitively difficult to do, but a worthy goal.

  19. #6699

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    If we survived the fall of the Soviets without a single missile fired I bet we can survive the fall of Russia the same way.
    The Armenian Issue
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    "We're nice mainly because we're rich and comfortable."

  20. #6700

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    If we survived the fall of the Soviets without a single missile fired I bet we can survive the fall of Russia the same way.
    That is a fair point and gives some hope in this situation, but the Soviet union dissolved quite peacefully, partially because of various constituent republics wanting that along with a good number of Russians, and finally the Soviet powers just let go of it without a fight. And, importantly, they weren't threatening any outsiders with anything.

    This time we have war crazy, self-proclaimed Peter the Great on a rampage and not having any intention of giving anything up while issuing threats left and right. So the situations are not sadly entirely comparable.

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