View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

Voters
143. You may not vote on this poll
  • I support Ukraine fully.

    99 69.23%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.49%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.80%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    10 6.99%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.90%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.59%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #6561
    Mithradates's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    The fact that an action causes suffering to the civilian population does not a priori make it a war crime though. The Americans hit electrical grids in Yugoslavia and Iraq after all.
    'Dual-use' utilities like electrical or rail infrastructure have rather obvious military as well as civil applications. Furthermore, I don't think that trying to disrupt an enemy's industrial capabilities (which electricity is of course critical to) is considered a war crime either. So trying to declare Russia's current attacks a war crime opens a rather large can of worms.
    No, it isnt automatically a war crime but since Peskov made it clear that the primary goal of the repeated missile barrages against the Ukrainian power grid is to cause suffering to the civilians to force the population to demand surrender from their government, in this case this is a war crime.

  2. #6562
    nhytgbvfeco2's Avatar Praefectus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    You see this is where it gets complicated. One can argue the DPR/LPR don't want to be part of the woke west.
    One can't make this argument, because no one asked the people there before the separatists took over and killed and tortured anyone who disagreed. It's like an armed robber walking into a bank, shooting half the people there, and declaring that the people of the bank voluntarily decided to give him all their money.

    And so Zelenskyy declared them "terrorists" and commenced shelling them in his "Anti-Terrorist Operation" of 2014-22.
    Likewise Zelenskyy denied it as being a war but rather referred to it as an "Operation".
    Sometimes I think Putin is taking the mickey out of that comedian Zelenskyy when he called his own "Special Operation"...
    Remind me, when was it that Zelenskyy became president again?

    The woke left is big on the 'cancel culture'. One knows one won the argument when the woke left resort to cancelling/muting/fact-checking one... 🤣
    If I'm watching TV and CNN comes on and I switch the channel, does it mean CNN won?
    A person choosing to ignore you is not cancel culture.

  3. #6563
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I wonder if we will be in "always war" territory, given the military-industrial complex can sell weapons fine while "always war" against another major power (proxy war atm), and doesn't need politicians to be defending own-wars against others.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  4. #6564
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I wonder if we will be in "always war" territory, given the military-industrial complex can sell weapons fine while "always war" against another major power (proxy war atm), and doesn't need politicians to be defending own-wars against others.
    We? This is Putins war. It seems as long as he is in power Russia will continue to go to war with its neighbours.

    Youre right the MIC does well out of conflicts, but they can't declare war for states. Or invade without a declaration of war, targetting civilians with missile attacks.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  5. #6565
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Nothing shameful about recognizing the vile nature of the arguments
    Shameful and vile is the an intellectual dishonesty characteristic of those who think they own the truth.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    How is it unrealistic or hypocritical to help Ukraine with weapons to defend themselves from Russian aggression?
    I have a different question: what can you expect from an invading army that feels its back against the wall by NATO weapons? to surrender? or do you expect Putin to challenge Zelensky to a duel? or use the atom bomb? what you see is what happens in every war, as it happened in the past and will happen in the future.Even if it is not proportional, this is what any army that feels harassed does in every war, and lack of proportionality is something that has never been missing in the American invasions everywhere in the world, even without being in trouble. Hypocrisy and double standards...
    -----
    -----
    Russia's current priority is to destroy Ukraine's power grid in order to make logistics difficult for the Ukrainian military. Almost 90% of Ukrainian rail traffic is driven by electric locomotives. The plan B to keep trains running in Ukraine - RailTech.com
    Due to the different gauges of Ukraine's rail network, electric locomotives cannot be replaced by Western diesel locomotives. Without electricity, there are almost no supplies of arms and ammunition, including Western supplies, to the front in the Donbass. As a consequence, millions of families are affected, without electricity, gas and water,with or without proportionality.
    And again, only a quick and honest willingness to negotiate and reach a compromise between Ukraine and Russia could still avoid the catastrophe Ukraine is heading towards. At the same time, a huge refugee wave of 3 to 5 million people will turn towards the EU and especially Germany.
    ---
    After the German sanctions against Russia, the German government agreed a contract with Qatar and had sought LNG supplies. But Qatar wanted binding contracts for a long-term commitment and long-term purchase by Germany. But the Greens did not want to go along with this.
    After all, Habeck want to get off gas as quickly as possible to save the climate, and that is why the industrialized German country has to be ruined.

    In fact, Habeck had agreed on an energy partnership with Qatar during his visit to Doha in March. But with the incessant attacks by German politicians and media against the ruling elite in Qatar for "human rights violations," nothing more could be expected. More recently, Habeck had declared that the idea of a World Cup in Qatar was "crazy."

    The conclusion according to Western energy experts is that there is no substitute for Russian gas on the world market. Those who don't want Russian gas must enter the intense competition from rising liquefied natural gas prices, which has also extended to scarce transportation capacities with special LNG ships
    Europe can't live without Russian gas. Can this tiny Middle
    Europe's plans to replace Russian gas are deemed 'wildly optimistic— and could hammer its economy
    Europe still can't live without this Russian energy export – CNN 10 Nevember
    While Russian exports of coal, oil and natural gas carried via pipelines to Europe have fallen sharply since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, imports of Russian LNG — a chilled, liquid form of gas that can be transported via sea tankers — have risen.
    Europe ramped up imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2022
    While the Russian share in Europe's LNG imports has decreased since the war began, the European Union still imported 11.8 million tons of LNG from Moscow between March and October this year. That is 2 million tons more than in the same period in 2021.
    --
    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    trying to declare Russia's current attacks a war crime opens a rather large can of worms.
    That is exactly why the US has not and will never do it. Last September, Biden has made a final decision against designating Russia as a state sponsor of terror
    Last edited by Ludicus; November 30, 2022 at 03:22 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
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  6. #6566

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    What Putin wants is a buffer zone,
    Putin has no right to claim any country as his buffer zone. In the free world we have this principle that countries can take a look at the options and approach whomever they think they might have the best ride with.

    Seeing what Russia offers its own people and does to others makes it a no-brainer that the ride would be better with the west. Belarus, or at least its leader, chose Russia. As you can see, no one from the west is destroying Belarusian civilian infrastructure to create a buffer zone or in retaliation for Belarus having the nerve to choose Russia over EU and NATO.

    In the free world, we believe that we can convince people to join us voluntarily by behaving like someone you could have a good ride with.

  7. #6567

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Shameful and vile is the an intellectual dishonesty characteristic of those who think they own the truth.
    You're making up characteristics to make what you say fancy now, OK.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    I have a different question: what can you expect from an invading army that feels its back against the wall by NATO weapons? to surrender? or do you expect Putin to challenge Zelensky to a duel? or use the atom bomb? what you see is what happens in every war, as it happened in the past and will happen in the future. Even if it is not proportional, this is what any army that feels harassed does in every war, and lack of proportionality is something that has never been missing in the American invasions everywhere in the world, even without being in trouble. Hypocrisy and double standards...
    What I asked you was quite simple. You seem to be unable to substantiate simple claims you make in your vile and shameful defense of Russia's raping of Ukraine. What a disgusting viewpoint to defend. Sigh... What I expect when a nation successfully defends itself against Russian aggression? For Russia to leave that nation's territories. Your attempts to stupefy a quite logically discussable topic like that is a quite intellectually dishonest tactic to utilize here. Wherever such criminal use of force is used we should be speaking against it. As I pointed out before you have done so in other examples, yet, somehow you chose to defend Russia's raping. We have not been able to find a reasoning for that.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Russia's current priority is to destroy Ukraine's power grid in order to make logistics difficult for the Ukrainian military. Almost 90% of Ukrainian rail traffic is driven by electric locomotives. The plan B to keep trains running in Ukraine - RailTech.com
    Due to the different gauges of Ukraine's rail network, electric locomotives cannot be replaced by Western diesel locomotives. Without electricity, there are almost no supplies of arms and ammunition, including Western supplies, to the front in the Donbass. As a consequence, millions of families are affected, without electricity, gas and water, with or without proportionality.
    And again, only a quick and honest willingness to negotiate and reach a compromise between Ukraine and Russia could still avoid the catastrophe Ukraine is heading towards. At the same time, a huge refugee wave of 3 to 5 million people will turn towards the EU and especially Germany.
    If you're gonna defend Russia's raping of Ukraine you could at least not lie about basic facts that we can Google. Ukrainian rail network is not 90% electrified. 45% is. In any case, its quite easy to switch to other types of locomotives. Your own source talks of ease of switching to diesel locomotives yet you talk as if its impossible to do so. Why would you even lie against your own source? Easiest way to cripple a railway network is to target crucial infrastructure like rail bridges or over passes that can not be replaced easily and quickly. Trying to destroy the entire energy infrastructure of Ukraine does very little to the railway network of Ukraine.

    How a catastrophe can be avoided? By Russia leaving Ukraine. You can continue to blame Ukraine for being raped all you want but in the least we except an ounce of intelligence from your arguments. Certainly not this drivel.
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  8. #6568
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Ukrainian rail network is not 90% electrified.
    What matters in practical terms, and what I meant,

    Ukraine Railway Assessment - View Source

    Electric traction carries out 93,3 % of all freight and passenger traffic.
    Number of electric locomotives 2,718
    Number of diesel multiple units 186
    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    its quite easy to switch to other types of locomotives
    What did I write? "Due to the different gauges of Ukraine's rail network, electric locomotives cannot be replaced by Western diesel locomotives”

    It’s possible may be, but not practical. Ukraine has a broad-gauge railway network, which is 1520 mm wide. In most European countries, the tracks are 1435 mm wide.


    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    How a catastrophe can be avoided? By Russia leaving Ukraine.
    A not very useful idiotic rhetoric. You know that’s not going to happen, a negotiated peace is the only way to end the war.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    What a disgusting viewpoint to defend
    This?
    “ I have a different question: what can you expect from an invading army that feels its back against the wall by NATO weapons? to surrender? or do you expect Putin to challenge Zelensky to a duel? or use the atom bomb? what you see is what happens in every war, as it happened in the past and will happen in the future. Even if it is not proportional, this is what any army that feels harassed does in every war, and lack of proportionality is something that has never been missing in the American invasions everywhere in the world, even without being in trouble. Hypocrisy and double standards...”

    I’m right, there is nothing disgusting here, just because you say it. Indeed, this is what happens in every single war, and the history of the American warfare proves me right, when I talk about hypocrisy and double standards. Don't like it? it's your problem, not mine.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    What I expect when a nation successfully defends itself against Russian aggression? For Russia to leave that nation's territories.
    Is Russia already defeated, really ? "As anyone with an ounce of intelligence” will tell you, that’s not the case.

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    somehow you chose to defend Russia's raping.
    Somehow you chose an idiotic, myopic, repetitive, offensive, approach to the question.

    ---

    According to the news,
    Brussels' uphill battle to confiscate Russian assets - POLITICO
    …there is no recent and valid precedent for any of these options.
    Venezuela. Conservatives are not happy.
    Biden's Dirty Oil Deal With Venezuela - WSJ
    GOP lawmakers blast Biden for turning to Venezuelan dictator
    Biden is shoring up South American ties to help counter Russia

    The meeting comes days after a secret trip to Venezuela...Officials told reporters it was the first such high-level visit since the late 1990s.
    “Shoring up South American ties”…it isn’t an easy task. The US cannot ignore the new 'pink tide' in Latin America

    The return of leftist governments in the region is a clear indication of region-wide rejection of US policies.
    In 2019, US President Donald Trump’s National Security Adviser John Bolton declared the return of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, according to which the US claimed Latin America as its own backyard and warned all foreign powers to stay away. He had, however, clearly misread the continent-wide rejection of his ideas.
    Latin America is open to dialogue with the US, but this has to be a respectful exchange of opinions, not a top-down lecture. It is time for a recalibration of prevailing ideas about the region, for a policy of pragmatism and constructive engagement.
    Last edited by Ludicus; November 30, 2022 at 07:35 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  9. #6569

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    No, it isnt automatically a war crime but since Peskov made it clear that the primary goal of the repeated missile barrages against the Ukrainian power grid is to cause suffering to the civilians to force the population to demand surrender from their government, in this case this is a war crime.
    Disrupting an enemy's trade has been considered fair game for the past century, and that generally has the effect of severely inconveniencing the civilian population in order to put pressure on an opponent. Not to mention sanctions policies where this is often the desired effect.

  10. #6570
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    Disrupting an enemy's trade has been considered fair game for the past century, and that generally has the effect of severely inconveniencing the civilian population in order to put pressure on an opponent. Not to mention sanctions policies where this is often the desired effect.
    Blockades didn't mind causing starvation either - at times that was exactly their goal. Again as means to force the other side to surrender.
    It's how Sparta ultimately won the Peloponnesian war, after Lysander captured the Athenian fleet.
    Of course the war-crime accusation was against Athens (for "crimes against Hellenism", which is the time's version of "crimes against humanity", which is largely a "you are worse so stfu").
    Last edited by Kyriakos; November 30, 2022 at 11:55 PM.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  11. #6571

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    What matters in practical terms, and what I meant,
    Ukraine Railway Assessment - View Source
    Oh no. That's not what you meant. You're being as deceptive as possible. You're selectively quoting and the underlined part is from the South western railway section which is the area around Kyiv. In fact this is criminally deceptive. You're comparing electric locomotives with diesel multiple points (multiple points are self-propelled train units). Diesel is rarely used for self propelled cars while electrification is quite easy for the same use. Looking at the Ukraine Railway Statistics table that you selectively used electric cars represent 66% of all locomotives with 1796 electric locomotives out of 2718 total number of locomotives. Your own source also puts electrification of Ukrainian railway at 45%. As you move closer to the front lines, where supply lines with trains matter, electrification rate decreases.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    What did I write? "Due to the different gauges of Ukraine's rail network, electric locomotives cannot be replaced by Western diesel locomotives”
    It’s possible may be, but not practical. Ukraine has a broad-gauge railway network, which is 1520 mm wide. In most European countries, the tracks are 1435 mm wide.
    Ukraine already has an abundance of diesel locomotives per your own source. Their 1.520mm gauge is not unique either. Other countries in the world, including some NATO countries, do use the same gauge. The bogie's on the train can be changed and it is in fact done on a daily basis with the passengers still inside the cars to service the line that goes into Poland from Moscow through Belarus. It's as practical as it gets.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    A not very useful idiotic rhetoric. You know that’s not going to happen, a negotiated peace is the only way to end the war.
    A while ago we wouldn't think Russians would be forced to retreat from the only major city they have taken over. It's not an idiotic rhetoric to demand Russia to go back to its internationally recognized borders. It's the sensible rhetoric. Your approach is not that a negotiated peace is the only way to end the bloodshed where Ukraine will unfortunately have to make some compromises. One can acknowledge the Russian aggression and crimes while arguing that. That's not what you have been arguing at all. Your approach have been to argue that Ukraine should accept any and all demands of Russia to appease them. You classify that as a negotiated peace.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    This?
    “ I have a different question: what can you expect from an invading army that feels its back against the wall by NATO weapons? to surrender? or do you expect Putin to challenge Zelensky to a duel? or use the atom bomb? what you see is what happens in every war, as it happened in the past and will happen in the future. Even if it is not proportional, this is what any army that feels harassed does in every war, and lack of proportionality is something that has never been missing in the American invasions everywhere in the world, even without being in trouble. Hypocrisy and double standards...”

    I’m right, there is nothing disgusting here, just because you say it. Indeed, this is what happens in every single war, and the history of the American warfare proves me right, when I talk about hypocrisy and double standards. Don't like it? it's your problem, not mine.
    You don't get to be right just because you say so. It's quite ironic that you throw that at me and then talk about not liking your statements and that its my problem. You are exhibiting that while claiming it on me. The least you could do is not to make it so obvious.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Is Russia already defeated, really ? "As anyone with an ounce of intelligence” will tell you, that’s not the case.
    From the perspective of Ukrainians, they're getting there. From the perspective of the rest of the world, yes, Russia already lost immensely by being unable to even hold its ground against a much smaller country. It showed that the Russian army is worthless without the threat of nuclear weapons. In their cowardice they had to resort to lashing out with missiles at civilian targets. You are defending coward rapists.


    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Somehow you chose an idiotic, myopic, repetitive, offensive, approach to the question.
    What's offensive is for you to religiously and deceptively defend Russia's rapping of Ukraine. Your main position can be classified as the "short skirt" argument and you have shown no limits in your argument to lie and deceive to accomplish that goal. It's a disgusting argument and it should be called out as such.
    The Armenian Issue
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  12. #6572

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    Disrupting an enemy's trade has been considered fair game for the past century, and that generally has the effect of severely inconveniencing the civilian population in order to put pressure on an opponent. Not to mention sanctions policies where this is often the desired effect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Blockades didn't mind causing starvation either - at times that was exactly their goal. Again as means to force the other side to surrender.
    It's how Sparta ultimately won the Peloponnesian war, after Lysander captured the Athenian fleet.
    Of course the war-crime accusation was against Athens (for "crimes against Hellenism", which is the time's version of "crimes against humanity", which is largely a "you are worse so stfu").
    So, the World Trade Center towers were justified targets? Are we discussing a war in 2022 based on 2022 standards or what? Please express explicitly so that we can treat you based on the era you're relying on.
    The Armenian Issue
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    "We're nice mainly because we're rich and comfortable."

  13. #6573

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    So, the World Trade Center towers were justified targets? Are we discussing a war in 2022 based on 2022 standards or what? Please express explicitly so that we can treat you based on the era you're relying on.
    Blockades and trade interdiction were used during the World Wars, and I don't think there was any change that made such actions illegal post-1945 (given that the Allies had used it, it would have looked rather ridiculous to claim such).

  14. #6574
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    Blockades and trade interdiction were used during the World Wars, and I don't think there was any change that made such actions illegal post-1945 (given that the Allies had used it, it would have looked rather ridiculous to claim such).
    Pretty obviously true
    Financial ruin (through blockade/sanctions etc) can and does cause death too, it's just that at times it is entirely meant to cause death.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  15. #6575
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Ukraine already has an abundance of diesel locomotives per your own source. Their 1.520mm gauge is not unique either. Other countries in the world, including some NATO countries, do use the same gauge. The bogie's on the train can be changed and it is in fact done on a daily basis with the passengers still inside the cars to service the line that goes into Poland from Moscow through Belarus. It's as practical as it gets.
    Wiki link to the Polish system

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SUW_2000
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

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  16. #6576
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It is already clear that the destruction of the Ukrainian power grid is greatly affecting freight transport, which is done mainly by electric trains (93%), and which are the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian trains. So no, Ukraine doesn’t "already has an abundance of diesel locomotives per your own source":
    Ukraine Railway Assessment - View Source
    Ukraine Railway Statistics

    Number of locomotives

    2,718
    Number of electric locomotives
    1,796
    Number of electric multiple units
    1,443
    Number of diesel multiple units
    186
    Number of employees
    375,900
    Number of specially branded passenger trains
    62
    And many (I suppose) have already been destroyed, because these numbers are from before the beginning of the war. Diesel trains are very few and imported diesel trains from Europe will be very inefficient, for the reasons already explained.

    And read,it's not as simple as one might think, Not broad gauge to Europe, but normal gauge to Ukraine

    Gauge change


    The two countries currently have a broad gauge railway network, which is 1520 mm wide. In most European countries, the tracks are 1435 mm wide. This gauge difference means that cargo needs to be reloaded on the border, or wherever the gauge change occurs. This results in additional transit time.

    Feasible?

    Although the TEN-T network is constantly adjusted and extended, the building of new railway lines is a costly and time-consuming development. Until now, the focus of the industry was more often on the extension of broad gauge towards Europe. For example, a consortium formed by ÖBB-Infrastruktur AG, Slovak Railways, Russian Railways and Ukrainian Railways considered extending the broad gauge line from the Slovak city of Kosice to Vienna in Austria. However, the funds were never collected, and with the start of the war in Ukraine, this project was cancelled.

    The broad gauge line of Ukraine currently runs up till the Polish city of Slavkov, a railway line that is successfully operated by PKP LHS with the purpose of transporting cargo only. Other cross-border rail freight is transloaded on the busy border crossings.

    Changing to European track gauge? 'Not just different width, a a different philosophy’.


    Different principles


    “Railway infrastructure with a 1435mm-wide and 1520mm-wide gauge are built according to different basic principles”, explains Zavgorodnii. “Let’s start with the simplest: the weight and length of the train that is able to run on these tracks. On a 1435mm-wide track, trains are 600 meters long and have an axle load of 20 tons. On the wide gauge track, trains weigh up to 1800 tons and are 840 meters.

    “This means that for the transportation of the same volume of cargo, more wagons and locomotives will be needed if the European gauge is used.”

    This is not only a challenge for Ukrainian Railways, but, even more so, for the many private railway companies in the country, he continues. “They are clearly not ready to move to another infrastructure.”
    Ukraine, in desperation, has even considered using steam locomotives, which is why I posted this link here, in a previous post. The plan B to keep trains running in Ukraine - RailTech.com

    The question is to what extent also old-fashioned steam locomotives could really be used for regular rail services, as the trains from the video runs on a small, narrow-gauge railway of which there are only a few sections left. According to Oleksandr Shevchenko, Deputy Director of the Passenger branch of Ukrainian Railways, there is at least one steam train that can run on the standard Ukrainian railway gauge, and two that can run on narrow-gauge lines, he said to RailTech. These trains are normally used for entertainment purposes, such as with Christmas
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Although I have tried over the months to avoid an exchange of insults with X or Y, or whoever, I am no saint, and since insults seem to be freely allowed, I say that only someone who is not intelligent enough (the terms I am using are the same terms he uses) to realize that there are no limits to escalating wars, keeps saying what he says, claiming moral reasons, when I have never seen him condemn his country for doing even worse, and under very favorable circumstances, which is not the case with Russia here. This is the "vile" hypocrisy of double standards, to employ a term he uses repeatedly.
    It is also an unintelligent joke, in my opinion,e to say that Russia has only one thing to do, and that is to accept defeat.


    ---
    Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, and this is also my opinion
    Playing With Fire in Ukraine: The Underappreciated Risks of Catastrophic Escalation - August 2022

    Key points

    -To understand the dynamics of escalation in Ukraine, start with each side’s goals. Since the war began, both Moscow and Washington have raised their ambitions significantly, and both are now deeply committed to winning the war and achieving formidable political aims. As a result, each side has powerful incentives to find ways to prevail and, more important, to avoid losing. In practice, this means that the United States might join the fighting either if it is desperate to win or to prevent Ukraine from losing, while Russia might use nuclear weapons if it is desperate to win or faces imminent defeat, which would be likely if U.S. forces were drawn into the fighting.

    -In effect, the absence of a possible diplomatic solution provides an added incentive for both sides to climb up the escalation ladder. What lies further up the rungs could be something truly catastrophic: a level of death and destruction exceeding that of World War II.

    -The United States and its allies initially backed Ukraine to prevent a Russian victory and help negotiate a favorable end to the fighting. But once the Ukrainian military began hammering Russian forces, especially around Kyiv, the Biden administration shifted course and committed itself to helping Ukraine win the war against Russia. It also sought to severely damage Russia’s economy by imposing unprecedented sanctions
    -What’s more, the United States has tied its own reputation to the outcome of the conflict. U.S. President Joe Biden has labelled Russia’s war in Ukraine a “genocide” nd accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of being a “war criminal” who should face a “war crimes trial.”

    -Presidential proclamations such as these make it hard to imagine Washington backing down; if Russia prevailed in Ukraine, the United States’ position in the world would suffer a serious blow.

    -Contrary to the conventional wisdom in the West, Moscow did not invade Ukraine to conquer it and make it part of a Greater Russia. It was principally concerned with preventing Ukraine from becoming a Western bulwark on the Russian border. Putin and his advisers were especially concerned about Ukraine eventually joining NATO

    -Toward that end, it appears that Russia’s territorial goals have expanded markedly since the war started

    -The threat to Russia today is even greater than it was before the war, mainly because the Biden administration is now determined to roll back Russia’s territorial gains and permanently cripple Russian power.
    -Moscow cannot afford to lose in Ukraine, and it will use every means available to avoid defeat.

    -Ukraine, for its part, has the same goals as the Biden administration. The Ukrainians are bent on recapturing territory lost to Russia—including Crimea

    -In essence, Kyiv, Washington, and Moscow are all deeply committed to winning at the expense of their adversary, which leaves little room for compromise. Neither Ukraine nor the United States, for example, is likely to accept a neutral Ukraine; in fact, Ukraine is becoming more closely tied with the West by the day. Nor is Russia likely to return all or even most of the territory it has taken from Ukraine, especially since the animosities that have fueled the conflict in the Donbas between pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian government for the past eight years are more intense than ever.

    -These conflicting interests explain why so many observers believe that a negotiated settlement will not happen any time soon and thus foresee a bloody stalemate. They are right about that. But observers are underestimating the potential for catastrophic escalation that is built into a protracted war in Ukraine.

    There are three basic routes to escalation inherent in the conduct of war: one or both sides deliberately escalate to win, one or both sides deliberately escalate to prevent defeat, or the fighting escalates not by deliberate choice but inadvertently. Each pathway holds the potential to bring the United States into the fighting or lead Russia to use nuclear weapons, and possibly both.

    ENTER AMERICA

    Once the Biden administration concluded that Russia could be beaten in Ukraine, it sent more (and more powerful) arms to Kyiv. The West began increasing Ukraine’s offensive capability by sending weapons such as the HIMARS multiple launch rocket system, in addition to “defensive” ones

    -The United States and its allies are also training the Ukrainian military and providing it with vital intelligence that it is using to destroy key Russian targets. Moreover, as The New York Times has reported, the West has “a stealthy network of commandos and spies” on the ground inside Ukraine.

    -Washington may not be directly engaged in the fighting, but it is deeply involved in the war. And it is now just a short step away from having its own soldiers pulling triggers and its own pilots pressing buttons.

    -At the same time, Washington is desperate to end the war—perhaps because it needs to focus on containing China or because the economic costs of backing Ukraine are causing political problems at home and in Europe. In those circumstances, U.S. policymakers would have every reason to consider taking riskier steps—such as imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine or inserting small contingents of U.S. ground forces—to help Ukraine defeat Russia.

    -A more likely scenario for U.S. intervention would come about if the Ukrainian army began to collapse and Russia seemed likely to win a major victory. In that case, given the Biden administration’s deep commitment to preventing that outcome, the United States could try to turn the tide by getting directly involved in the fighting.

    -Lastly, there is a chance that the fighting in southern Ukraine will damage the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, to the point where it spews radiation around the region, leading Russia to respond in kind.

    -Although Russia’s military has done enormous damage to Ukraine, Moscow has, so far, been reluctant to escalate to win the war. Putin has not expanded the size of his force through large-scale conscription. Nor has he targeted Ukraine’s electrical grid, which would be relatively easy to do and would inflict massive damage on that country. (1)

    -Indeed, many Russians have taken him to task for not waging the war more vigorously. Putin has acknowledged this criticism but has let it be known that he would escalate if necessary.

    GOING NUCLEAR

    -There are three circumstances in which Putin might use nuclear weapons.

    -In the third scenario, the war settles into a protracted stalemate that has no diplomatic solution and becomes exceedingly costly for Moscow. Desperate to end the conflict on favorable terms, Putin might pursue nuclear escalation to win.

    As with the previous scenario, where he escalates to avoid defeat, U.S. nuclear retaliation would be highly unlikely. In both scenarios, Russia is likely to use tactical nuclear weapons against a small set of military targets, at least initially. It could strike towns and cities in later attacks if necessary. Gaining a military advantage would be one aim of the strategy, but the more important one would be to deal a game-changing blow—to create such fear in the West that the United States and its allies move quickly to end the conflict on terms favorable to Moscow. No wonder William Burns, the director of the CIA, remarked in April, “None of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons.”

    COURTING CATASTROPHE

    -In fact, the conventional view vastly understates the dangers of escalation in Ukraine. For starters, wars tend to have a logic of their own, which makes it difficult to predict their course. Anyone who says that they know with confidence what path the war in Ukraine will take is mistaken

    -This perilous situation creates a powerful incentive to find a diplomatic solution to the war. Regrettably, however, there is no political settlement in sight, as both sides are firmly committed to war aims that make compromise almost impossible. The Biden administration should have worked with Russia to settle the Ukraine crisis before war broke out in February.

    -One can only hope that leaders on both sides will manage the war in ways that avoid catastrophic escalation. For the tens of millions of people whose lives are at stake, however, that is cold comfort.
    (1) under way.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  17. #6577
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Oh got you tankie commander back huh? Mearshimer...

    "-Contrary to the conventional wisdom in the West, Moscow did not invade Ukraine to conquer it and make it part of a Greater Russia. It was principally concerned with preventing Ukraine from becoming a Western bulwark on the Russian border. Putin and his advisers were especially concerned about Ukraine eventually joining NATO"

    I see nothing to justify that assertion, in either Russian actions or words. Both which clearly indicate otherwise.

    "-At the same time, Washington is desperate to end the war—perhaps because it needs to focus on containing China or because the economic costs of backing Ukraine are causing political problems at home and in Europe. In those circumstances, U.S. policymakers would have every reason to consider taking riskier steps—such as imposing a no-fly zone over Ukraine or inserting small contingents of U.S. ground forces—to help Ukraine defeat Russia."

    I see nothing to justify any assertion made here either. There zero indication Biden will implement a no fly zone or put boots on the ground. I see no way Ukraine distracts from a focus on China. Last I checked Chain looks to doing own goal work right now anyway. The War in Ukraine is not distracting from the USN or the Airforce if the man means in military terms. The economic cost of backing the Ukraine are what again trivial for watching an adversary ground down.

    -Ukraine, for its part, has the same goals as the Biden administration. The Ukrainians are bent on recapturing territory lost to Russia—including Crimea
    What a surprise the Ukraine wants the territorial integrity its supposed to have as a UN member and under the Budapest Memorandum.

    -Lastly, there is a chance that the fighting in southern Ukraine will damage the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, the largest in Europe, to the point where it spews radiation around the region, leading Russia to respond in kind.
    So Russia going to retaliate for a problem that only existd because it invaded Ukraine and caused the problem. Russia's lack of agency is like profound. US bad and caused this...

    Alternative takes on your man

    https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p...chotiner?sd=pf

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...-months-of-war

    https://danieldrezner.substack.com/p...-a-comparative

    https://newrepublic.com/article/1656...perialism-nato

    edit:

    also

    Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, and this is also my opinion
    Is that not more properly an opinion (lacking much evidence if any) I support

    In any case with Mearshimer you seem to not be able to realize he as driven off to the same place Victor David Hansen has in is golden years. A one critical and noted scholar in his field who now plays the famous name that gets lots of media attention and of course is the smartest guy in the room because well his name gets mentioned a lot so even when obviously wrong he still sucks up air time/print time as a celebrity. Not as bad as Kissinger who really needs to die on trial in the Hauge but similar but I fear the deal for his soul might have included a clause for him to be inflicted on on us in perpetuity.
    Last edited by conon394; December 01, 2022 at 09:53 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  18. #6578

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    It is already clear that the destruction of the Ukrainian power grid is greatly affecting freight transport, which is done mainly by electric trains (93%), and which are the overwhelming majority of Ukrainian trains. So no, Ukraine doesn’t "already has an abundance of diesel locomotives per your own source":
    Ukraine Railway Assessment - View Source
    Ukraine Railway Statistics
    And many (I suppose) have already been destroyed, because these numbers are from before the beginning of the war. Diesel trains are very few and imported diesel trains from Europe will be very inefficient, for the reasons already explained.
    And read,it's not as simple as one might think, Not broad gauge to Europe, but normal gauge to Ukraine
    Changing to European track gauge? 'Not just different width, a a different philosophy’.

    Different principles

    Ukraine, in desperation, has even considered using steam locomotives, which is why I posted this link here, in a previous post. The plan B to keep trains running in Ukraine - RailTech.com
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 
    Although I have tried over the months to avoid an exchange of insults with X or Y, or whoever, I am no saint, and since insults seem to be freely allowed, I say that only someone who is not intelligent enough (the terms I am using are the same terms he uses) to realize that there are no limits to escalating wars, keeps saying what he says, claiming moral reasons, when I have never seen him condemn his country for doing even worse, and under very favorable circumstances, which is not the case with Russia here. This is the "vile" hypocrisy of double standards, to employ a term he uses repeatedly.
    It is also an unintelligent joke, in my opinion,e to say that Russia has only one thing to do, and that is to accept defeat.
    Why you choose to lie about basic facts is beyond me. 93% figure is not about the entirety of Ukrainian railway network but of a specific region. This is quite clearly stated in your own source. No number from your source can be interpreted to argue that overwhelming majority of Ukrainian trains are electric. Electric locomotive representation is at 66%. Non-electric locomotives sit at 922. That's plenty. Why lie about basics like this?
    The Armenian Issue
    http://www.twcenter.net/forums/group.php?groupid=1930

    "We're nice mainly because we're rich and comfortable."

  19. #6579
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    93% figure is not about the entirety of Ukrainian railway network but of a specific region. This is quite clearly stated in your own source, no number from your source can be interpreted to argue that overwhelming majority of Ukrainian trains are electric.
    How come? If I understood it well, the tittle "Ukraine Railway Statistics" doesn't refer to a specific region.

    Edit,
    I get it now. I was adding the number of electric locomotives to the number of multiple unit trains powered by electricity- as separate entities. So, you are right, the number of diesel trains is 922, and the number of electric trains tout court is 1,796.Anyway the electric trains are still a majority.

    --

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Is that not more properly an opinion (lacking much evidence if any) I support
    Don't be dogmatic.I don't agree. There is a lot of evidence there.
    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    What a surprise the Ukraine wants the territorial integrity
    No, it is not a surprise.Who said that?
    But,
    Available December 19.The Tragedy of Ukraine - What Classical Greek Tragedy Can Teach Us About Conflict Resolution - Nicolai Pietro
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 






    Review, Writing the Ukraine War history, as it happens

    The tragedy of Crimea - Responsible Statecraft Written by
    Nicolai Petro NOVEMBER 25, 2022


    A history of the region’s relationship with Ukrainian rule before 2014 shows why Kyiv’s attempt to retake it would be so difficult.
    Recent media reports have highlighted Ukraine’s intention to retake Crimea, particularly after its success in recapturing Kherson. This has been the stated policy of the Ukrainian government since losing it to Russia in 2014.
    A brief history of the region’s difficult relationship with Ukrainian rule before 2014, however, shows why this would be extremely difficult.

    It is well known that in 1954 the region was transferred from the Russian SFSR (Soviet Federative Socialist Republic,) to the Ukrainian SSR (Soviet Socialist Republic) as a “gift” to the Ukrainian people in honor of the 300th anniversary of the Pereyaslavl Rada that joined Ukraine to Russia. Less known, however, is that in January 1991, as the USSR was disintegrating, the Crimean regional government decided to hold its own referendum on restoring the autonomy of Crimea.

    Nearly 84 percent of registered voters participated in this referendum, and 93 percent voted for Crimean sovereignty. This opened the door to potentially separating Crimea from both the USSR and the Ukrainian SSR, thus potentially allowing it to join the new Union Treaty then being proposed by Mikhail Gorbachev as an independent member.

    …From the outset, however, both sides had diametrically opposed interpretations of what Crimean “sovereignty” meant — Simferopol, Crimea’s capital, wanted sovereignty, while the Ukrainian capital of Kiev a weak form of autonomy within a unitary state in which Ukrainian language and culture would be the norm.
    On May 5, 1992, the Supreme Soviet of the ACR effectively declared total independence from Ukraine and announced a new referendum to be held in August 1992.

    The Ukrainian parliament declared Crimea’s independence illegal and authorized President Kravchuk to use any means necessary to prevent it. After a two-week stalemate, the Crimean parliament rescinded its declaration of independence in exchange for a negotiated devolution of power from Kiev to Simferopol. Crimea was given its own president and prime minister, as well as the authority to hold its own local referendums.
    The crisis was averted, but only temporarily, since it did not deal with the core issue — the desire of a large portion of the Crimean population to be part of Russia rather than
    Ukraine.
    It therefore resurfaced in 1994, when Yuri Meshkov and his “Russia Bloc” party won the presidency of Crimea on a platform advocating reunification with Russia. Again, an incipient crisis was averted on March 16-17, 1995, when Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, after consulting with his Russian President Boris Yeltsin and receiving his support, sent Ukrainian special forces to arrest the Crimean government.
    Meshkov was deported to Russia, and, that same day, the Rada abrogated the Crimean Constitution and abolished the Crimean presidency.
    Still, it took three more years to pass a new Crimean constitution that declared Ukrainian the sole official language of Crimea and specified that Crimea was an inalienable part of Ukraine.

    In a surprisingly candid interview in 2018, the last Ukrainian-appointed prime minister of Crimea, Anatoly Mogiloyv, explained that Crimea had always been “a Russian region,” and said that he repeatedly warned Kiev that, if it refused to grant the peninsula more autonomy, it would bolt to Russia.

    The results of the Crimean referendum of March 16, 2014, have been rightly called into question because of the anomalous conditions under which it was held, but they were hardly surprising. Anatoly Karlin has conveniently compiled a list of 30 public opinion surveys taken between 1994 and 2016. Twenty-five show Russophile sentiment at over 70 percent, and five at 25–55 percent.
    One of Crimea’s foremost sociologists, Natalia Kiselyova, says that the percentage of Crimeans who “yearned for Russia” between 1991 and 2014 was always greater than 50 percent, while the percentage that favored Crimean regionalism was never less than 55–60 percent.

    Since 2014, a number of Western-sponsored polls have likewise shown a high level of support for reunification with Russia.

    Thus, a Pew survey from April 2014 showed that 91 percent of Crimean respondents believed the 2014 referendum was free and fair.

    A June 2014 poll, this one by Gallup, found nearly 83 percent of the Crimean population (94 percent of ethnic Russians and 68 percent of ethnic Ukrainians) thought the 2014 referendum reflected the views of the people.
    A spring 2017 survey conducted by the German-based Center for East European and International Studies found that, if asked to vote again then, 79 percent said they would cast the same vote.
    Most striking of all has been the turnaround in the attitude of Crimean Tatars. A 2020 report in Foreign Affairs found that the proportion of Tatars who indicated that they thought being part of Russia would make them better off rose from 50 percent in 2014 to 81 percent in 2019.

    Many leading Ukrainian political and cultural figures, including the writers Vasyl Shklyar, Yuri Andrukhovych, and former President Viktor Yushchenko, have referred to Crimea as foreign to Ukraine and depicted its multiculturalism as a threat to the nationalist Ukraine they were trying to create.

    After 2013, some have suggested letting this territory go its own way. The danger of doing so now, however, according to President Poroshenko’s permanent representative in Crimea, Boris Babin, is that “if we don’t liberate Crimea and the East [militarily], then all of Ukraine will become the East and Crimea.”

    The history of Crimea since 1991 thus offers a vivid illustration of how nationalism can lead national elites to self-delusion.

    Knowing full well the region’s long-standing aspirations for autonomy, Kiev’s nationalist politicians chose to ignore or suppress them.

    The same problems could also arise for Russia, though, until now, it has managed to avoid them through a mixture of pragmatism and massive investments in areas of concern to the local population.
    For Crimean Tatars, these include the April 21, 2014, decree rehabilitating the deported peoples of Crimea, additional federal funding for the expansion of education in the Tatar language, the construction of more than 150 new mosques, and recognition of the Tatar language as official in Crimea, something never achieved under Ukrainian rule.

    Critics counter that Russia is only pretending to address the concerns of the Crimean Tatars. In reality, they say, there has been a tenfold reduction in the number of Tatars in positions of authority in Crimea, because the Crimean Tatar Mejlis (Assembly) is now outlawed, and Tatars must run for office within different parties.

    It probably has not helped the overall popularity of the Mejlis in Crimea, however, that some of its exiled leaders in Ukraine support the policies of the Ukrainian government, which include the possible deportation of several hundred thousand Russian residents of the peninsula.

    To be clear, the loss of Crimea stems directly from Russia’s illegal annexation, but, as Ukraine’s first president, Leonid Kravchuk, acknowledged in 2019, it was fed by years of “very aggressive attacks of one region [Galicia in Western Ukraine – NP], which often believes that its ideology is the most correct, the most essential for the Ukrainian people; [and it] encounters the opposition of all regions of Ukraine that have a different ideology, or maybe different views, to be more precise, on the situation in Ukraine.”
    To regain their loyalty, Kiev will have to acknowledge the role that its own policies, most notably forcible Ukrainianization, have played in fracturing Ukrainian society, or face the prospect that recapturing these territories will result in a new cycle of violence, at some point in the future.
    It's very well explained.From this one can see that the Russian annexation - with no return, realistically speaking - will not terribly upset the people of Crimea.
    Last edited by Ludicus; December 01, 2022 at 02:05 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  20. #6580

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    How come? If I understood it well, the tittle "Ukraine Railway Statistics" doesn't refer to a specific region.
    Edit,
    I get it now. I was adding the number of electric locomotives to the number of multiple unit trains powered by electricity- as separate entities. So, you are right, the number of diesel trains is 922, and the number of electric trains tout court is 1,796.Anyway the electric trains are still a majority.
    That's quite a bad cop out. You don't get 93% with that "mistake" you mentioned. What you tried to do earlier is that use the 93% number explicitly mentioned next to the South Western Railway section, which is the area around Kyiv, and wanted us to think it represents the entirety of the network's volume. In fact, first you used that figure to claim that it represented traffic of freight and passengers (post #6568). Then you forgot about the passenger part and used the same figure for freight traffic (post #6576). Of course, number of locomotives tell us nothing about value of traffic as we do not know the number of cars they're pulling. As passenger locomotives generally pull less cars they mean much less in numbers. Ukraine has plenty of diesel ones and they have been using them to man the electrified lines in absence of electricity. It is extremely idiotic to argue that Russia's indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian infrastructure is done to disrupt rail service.

    This all leads us to one obvious question: why have you been lying so poorly to defend Russia's raping of Ukraine?
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