Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[mishkin]

It can hardly be said the NATO is sitting idly by in this conflict. It is propping up Ukraine in all manners available short of getting directly involved (as far as we know anyway). Evidently, the hope is that Putin will wear himself out against the Ukraine. And as horribly cynical is to acknowledge that Ukraine is basically serving as a punch bag, in the grand scheme of things, it is still preferable to both giving Putin what he wants and escalating to WWIII, even if it stays conventional. Can't blame Zelenski for not seeing it that way, of course. That is why we don't really have much moral ground to berate him for accidentally landing a rocket in Poland, or blaming Russia for it. Hell, I wouldn't even blame him for trying a false flag operation. I definitely would blame those who would fall for it though.

now I don't know if I'm contradicting myself but I agree with you. I guess it's just the position of some Europeans that annoys me.

[Alastor]

no one stopped Hirohito/Mussolini/Hitler ibecause europe was terrified of getting into another war. Sounds pretty familiar, stop making excuses

No one? Really? I guess I missed that chapter in history that said the world was ruled by Hitler and co for decades and there never was a WW2. Europe (or what counts as the good guys in Europe at the time, the future allies, victors of the war and our political forefathers) was afraid of WW2 and rightly so, they still fought that war when it was deemed, rightly or not, necessary, but not to fear a large scale war is folly. You see that is the issue here, you are really making the argument here that Putin is worth a 3rd world war? A potentially nuclear one no less? Is he really that great a threat to Europe? No. Always keep in mind that the alternative to appeasement is not a bad peace, but a war. And war is always bad.

[Kyriakos]

Another problem with world wars is that pretty soon you get to the draft, then people die in huge numbers.
That's even without taking into account that you won't soundly defeat a nuclear power, so at best you'd make peace with ww1 Germany, which led to it becoming far more racist and aggressive than before.

[Cyclops]

"OMG Putin escalated another border war better give him everything or its our fault" is a trash argument, and its also the best pro Putin noise out there.

This is a sickening conflict, the instigator is Putin and he needs to unilaterally stop.

He cannot offer peace terms as he has not declared war. Any and all conventional retribution is acceptable until he retreats from 100% of Ukraine.

He doesnt get toconduct a terror operation and also claim protection under the norms if international relations. He left the shade of that tree.

And he doesnt get to threaten nukes and conduct terror attacks without becoming North Korea. Well done Vlad you are nearly there.

[PointOfViewGun]

now I don't know if I'm contradicting myself but I agree with you. I guess it's just the position of some Europeans that annoys me.

One contradiction that went ignored is how Russian oil is being carried. Oil tankers from Greece, a NATO country, have been largely carrying Russian oil through ship to ship transfers.

[Cyclops]

One contradiction that went ignored is how Russian oil is being carried. Oil tankers from Greece, a NATO country, have been largely carrying Russian oil through ship to ship transfers.

If they are doing it then it's a smart move from Hellas: plenty of outside states are profiting from this horrible conflict and they are just taking their slice. Hellas is somewhat reliant on moral support from the (once again) orthodox Power, which is another aspect of why Putin's suicidal assault on Ukraine is so disappointing. Russia gutting itself on the barbed wire serves no purpose and hurts their wider sphere of influence, and their allies and friends.

Has Russia ever directly intervened in the Hellenic Republic's dealings with Turkiyye? I know there's been a sort of bogeyman role "invade us and you'll kick of WW3" but that bogeyman is fading. I hope Erdogan doesn't get bold with the Thracian border now Putin is burning his cards.

Putin's failure to effectively support Armenia seems a foreshadowing of the Ukraine disaster, he just lacks the strength to support regional partners anymore. Belarus is on the brink I think.

[Ludicus]

now I don't know if I'm contradicting myself but I agree with you. I guess it's just the position of some Europeans that annoys me.

So be it.
Edit: and non-europeans, btw, including the Pope,
For those who continue to say that morality regarding the use of the atomic bomb has changed in recent decades: yesterday, I wrote this Americans weigh in on nuclear war | Stanford News

Even today (2017) a new Stanford study suggests that “American public opinion on nuclear weapons usage has not fundamentally changed since 1945”
The results showed little support for the so-called “nuclear taboo” thesis. When considering the use of nuclear weapons, the majority of Americans prioritize protecting U.S. troops and achieving American war aims, even when doing so would result in the deliberate killing of millions of foreign noncombatants.

--

Why exactly would the US intervene? You can do better than this.

That's my question. This conversation started when Cyclops said that in his opinion, the US would have to enter the war.

the studies I posted are all for wars using Hiroshima level nukes

The explosive yield of tactical nuclear weapons can range from under one kiloton to about 100 kilotons. The nuclear weapon dropped in Hiroshima had an explosive yield of the equivalent of about 15 kilotons. Eventually, Russia could conduct a strike against Ukrainian infrastructure, like a Ukrainian military base. Jake Sullivan said on "Face the Nation" that Biden has warned Russia of "catastrophic consequences" if it resorts to using nuclear weapons, and I quote: “but he offered no further specificity”

In the highly unlikely event that the US directly attacks the Russian army, I think that this will be the first step of the Russian response. They will not sit around waiting to be defeated.
Read the Bulletin of the atomic scientists.
Read the fine print: Russia's nuclear weapon use policy
Nuclear threats and what they mean for the Doomsday Clock

Members of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists are due to meet next month to discuss the aftermath of the past year — and perhaps the clock could be moved even closer to midnight.

What I don't understand is what makes you certain that Russia will not respond to a direct US attack with a nuclear response. No one knows.

[PointOfViewGun]

If they are doing it then it's a smart move from Hellas: plenty of outside states are profiting from this horrible conflict and they are just taking their slice. Hellas is somewhat reliant on moral support from the (once again) orthodox Power, which is another aspect of why Putin's suicidal assault on Ukraine is so disappointing. Russia gutting itself on the barbed wire serves no purpose and hurts their wider sphere of influence, and their allies and friends.

Has Russia ever directly intervened in the Hellenic Republic's dealings with Turkiyye? I know there's been a sort of bogeyman role "invade us and you'll kick of WW3" but that bogeyman is fading. I hope Erdogan doesn't get bold with the Thracian border now Putin is burning his cards.

Putin's failure to effectively support Armenia seems a foreshadowing of the Ukraine disaster, he just lacks the strength to support regional partners anymore. Belarus is on the brink I think.

Greece got outside of Russian influence long time. If Turkey was ever gonna invade Greece it was never stopped because of Russian connection. They're simply profiting from this conflict as their oil industry practically and entirely lifted Russian oil transportation.

[Cyclops]

Greece got outside of Russian influence long time. If Turkey was ever gonna invade Greece it was never stopped because of Russian connection.

Some of my Hellenic mates feel that Russia and even the Soviets were some sort of umbrella, keeping Turkiye honest: maybe that's a bit of a myth, similar to how Ireland and Poland feel like the US is a strong friend rather than a pragmatic ally. The view from Australia is the US is the only power on earth that can invade us, so its all the way with USA!

They're simply profiting from this conflict as their oil industry practically and entirely lifted Russian oil transportation.

Yes there are a lot of powers exploiting this situation. Russia has benefited the US and Hellas and probably many more states more than itself with its blundering. The heat has been taken off China (somewhat) and the Saudis too.

Has Erdogan made any hay? I know he's tried to play Black Sea peacemaker, a not unreasonable role. Has he helped at all?

[PointOfViewGun]

Some of my Hellenic mates feel that Russia and even the Soviets were some sort of umbrella, keeping Turkiye honest: maybe that's a bit of a myth, similar to how Ireland and Poland feel like the US is a strong friend rather than a pragmatic ally. The view from Australia is the US is the only power on earth that can invade us, so its all the way with USA!

In the minds of many, divorced from the reality, the cogs don't spread beyond their own borders.

Yes there are a lot of powers exploiting this situation. Russia has benefited the US and Hellas and probably many more states more than itself with its blundering. The heat has been taken off China (somewhat) and the Saudis too.

Has Erdogan made any hay? I know he's tried to play Black Sea peacemaker, a not unreasonable role. Has he helped at all?

Not monetarily so far, I think, but the balancing act that Macron alluded to earlier did help boost his image domestically. It was not a bad policy either. He got to support Ukraine substantially and kept dialogue routes open with Russia.

[Nebaki]

The view from Australia is the US is the only power on earth that can invade us, so its all the way with USA!

What about former past Imperial Japan now Communist China?

Has Erdogan made any hay? I know he's tried to play Black Sea peacemaker, a not unreasonable role. Has he helped at all?

Well on some unimportant places for Westerners he helped. That is the area where the most poor People live and are depended on some grain to sustain their existence. But how a "Dictator" can do such a cruel thing?

[Sir Adrian]

That's my question. This conversation started when Cyclops said that in his opinion, the US would have to enter the war.



The explosive yield of tactical nuclear weapons can range from under one kiloton to about 100 kilotons. The nuclear weapon dropped in Hiroshima had an explosive yield of the equivalent of about 15 kilotons. Eventually, Russia could conduct a strike against Ukrainian infrastructure, like a Ukrainian military base. Jake Sullivan said on "Face the Nation" that Biden has warned Russia of "catastrophic consequences" if it resorts to using nuclear weapons, and I quote: “but he offered no further specificity”

In the highly unlikely event that the US directly attacks the Russian army, I think that this will be the first step of the Russian response. They will not sit around waiting to be defeated.
Read the Bulletin of the atomic scientists.
Read the fine print: Russia's nuclear weapon use policy
Nuclear threats and what they mean for the Doomsday Clock


What I don't understand is what makes you certain that Russia will not respond to a direct US attack with a nuclear response. No one knows.

I told you on the last page why Russia will not use nuclear weapons.

[Ludicus]

You don't know for sure, its just your opinion.In fact, no one knows.
---

But we now know, according to CNN, that Biden scolded Zelensky, through Sullivan, for his irresponsible behavior, which discredits him. Biden only spoke with the Polish President.

Zelensky, bewildered, asked to speak directly with Biden , which he was refused. Now he says he doesn't know what happened.

This gives me some hope that we may eventually be moving towards a peace process. Who knows.

As for the EU, I must say that it was not created for war, it was created for peace, not to impose sanctions. And it baffles me - and many European diplomats who have worked in the EU for many years - how it can be the President of the European Commission (Ursula) leading all of this. At the very least it should be the President of the Council. The role of the European Commission is to execute the measures decided by the Council of Ministers- and many agree that these sanctions are destroying the EU and destroying the European democracies.
(Thank you, CNN Prime time - right now )

[Muizer]

"OMG Putin escalated another border war better give him everything or its our fault" is a trash argument, and its also the best pro Putin noise out there.

This is a sickening conflict, the instigator is Putin and he needs to unilaterally stop.

He cannot offer peace terms as he has not declared war. Any and all conventional retribution is acceptable until he retreats from 100% of Ukraine.

He doesnt get toconduct a terror operation and also claim protection under the norms if international relations. He left the shade of that tree.

And he doesnt get to threaten nukes and conduct terror attacks without becoming North Korea. Well done Vlad you are nearly there.

Ever since the Russian retreat from Kiiv, it's become rather obvious giving Putin what he wants is not a serious option. The choice NATO is facing is between sticking with the current course of propping up Ukraine with arms and intel, or getting actively and openly involved. And this question is asked currently in a context where Ukraine appears to be denying Putin victory at the least and possibly forcing a retreat. What is the cost/benefit of NATO escalating the conflict? It could possibly be worth it if Putin could quickly be forced to accept a ceasefire and a negotiated peace. Is that likely to happen? I don't think so. I think NATO could win, but to do so, things would get a lot worse first. Worse than anything currently happening in Ukraine with always the risk of the conflict going nuclear. It all hinges on the sanity of one man and going by the rhetoric we have to seriously consider the possibility that he might not feel a Russia that bends the knee to the West is worth saving.

[conon394]

This gives me some hope that we may eventually be moving towards a peace process. Who knows.

Based on What?

[Stario]

But Zelensky is convinced that he will win the war next summer, and insists, "If we survive this winter, and we will do it, Ukraine will definitely win this war". I don't know what Zelensky means by "we will survive this winter”. The question is, is he referring to the Ukrainian army or the Ukrainian people?

Ukranian army is already effectively destroyed (as far as offensive capabilities), due to massive losses they just can't replace due to their tiny size relative to Russia. Russia too suffered large losses but due to size managed to replace same.
I think Zelenskyy is referring to the massive 300k+ Russian Troops preparing/training/equipping to mop up Ukraine once ground freezes over and full-scale military operations can resume.
As he has thus far failed to get US/NATO directly involved (even w his bombings of Poland and then lying about it trying to blame Russia), and he knows Ukraine can't do it alone, "the noose around this comedian is tightening"...

[StarDreamer]

Ukranian army is already effectively destroyed (as far as offensive capabilities), due to massive losses they just can't replace due to their tiny size relative to Russia. Russia too suffered large losses but due to size managed to replace same.
I think Zelenskyy is referring to the massive 300k+ Russian Troops preparing/training/equipping to mop up Ukraine once ground freezes over and full-scale military operations can resume.
As he has thus far failed to get US/NATO directly involved (even w his bombings of Poland and then lying about it trying to blame Russia), and he knows Ukraine can't do it alone, "the noose around this comedian is tightening"...

Ah yes, the army that just retook the largest city Russia had managed to capture since escalating into a full scale war. That "effectively destroyed" army... If this is the level of analysis that Russian high command also has? This would be a much shorter war as Russia would keep on throwing lives away in their fultile assaults while muttering " just one more assault and they will break". If the Ukrainian army is effectively destroyed, why would Russia not be capturing huge swaths of land instead of resorting to terror bombings?

[fkizz]

Ukranian army is already effectively destroyed (as far as offensive capabilities), due to massive losses they just can't replace due to their tiny size relative to Russia. Russia too suffered large losses but due to size managed to replace same.

You said this a few days before Putin retreated from Kherson, Ukranians gaining control of it..

[Coughdrop addict]

Ah yes, the army that just retook the largest city Russia had managed to capture since escalating into a full scale war. That "effectively destroyed" army... If this is the level of analysis that Russian high command also has? This would be a much shorter war as Russia would keep on throwing lives away in their fultile assaults while muttering " just one more assault and they will break". If the Ukrainian army is effectively destroyed, why would Russia not be capturing huge swaths of land instead of resorting to terror bombings?

The official cope from Russia has been that the US military and NATO are in Ukraine and that's really who they have been fighting, but it's being kept a secret from the US and NATO public. As if you could just sneak tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of vehicles into a Ukraine without anyone noticing!

Yes it's an obvious lie, but the only alternative would be for Russia to admit that they have been beaten by Ukrainians, a people they have always considered inferior.

[Kyriakos]

If it would get to "nato sends armies against Russia", it is pretty obvious that most of nato's countries would not do it, since they have no nuclear weapons to act as a defense to being nuked, nor are they an ocean and a couple of seas away from Russia.
I doubt it would be more than the US sending an army - if it even did, which going by what we are seeing is not their plan.
Ukraine getting some areas back by conquest, has its own limiting factor: when they reach a major river. They have to agree to peace with some concessions, the most anodyne of which is to simply identify Crimea as de jure russian (and be given back Donbas). Again, this depends also on whether Russia can accept that, but it would be the closest to a "noble peace" imo.