Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Coughdrop addict]

I have it on good authority that the evil US launched a false flag attack on Poland to blame Putin and further Ukraine's war of aggression against sweet, angelic Russia. Also those alleged victims are all crisis actors who just got done feeding ballots to Jewish transgender chickens to power Hunter's woke biolabs. Any so-called "evidence" to the contrary is part of the conspiracy. I know this because it constantly "proves" me wrong, but it is impossible for me to be wrong. Wake up sheeple!

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Sounds like a recipe for escalation IMHO.

Quite the different. It would be deescalating by preventing missiles crossing accidently the Nato Border and forcing the polnish government to do something because of civilian deaths.

By the way it is Russia, which is escalating the war by intentionally destroying the critical civilian energy infrastructure in face of coming winter. Its a warcrime to bomb intentionally civilian infrastructure, even more if its happening before Winter to cause civilian deads and masssuffering of the population to break the enemies morale.

Which wasn't successfull in every past war.

[Roma_Victrix]

I know i know!

The escalation is when Russia invades without a declaration of war.

They refuse to negotiate.

Then they target civilians.

And then they shoot missile into neighboring states.

Russia has been escalating from day 1.

While some people are being hysterical and ridiculous for thinking this will trigger NATO's Article 5 and hence WWIII, involving a hot war between nuclear armed powers, at the same time I have no doubt NATO is going to punish Russia in some sort of significant way for this. Let's gather all the facts first, though. If it was a missile fired from Belarus and was deliberately targeting something in Poland dealing with supplies or power, that's a red line that should be counteracted and punished with surgical but extreme force. If it was just some missile aimed at Lviv and intercepted by Ukrainian missile defense with debris falling in Poland, that hardly makes it an international incident of grave proportions.

RIP to the Polish villagers, though. They didn't deserve to get involved in any of this barbarity.

[Abdülmecid I]

As neither the Polish nor the American government have made official announcements yet, the certainty and sarcasm in some of the previous comments seem a bit premature. Now these anonymous US officials point towards Ukraine having fired the missile.

Biden has confirmed the experts' assessment that it was an Ukrainian missile. Poland has also refrained from evoking article 4. Not that surprised that journalists overreacted without first waiting for corroboration, but Kiev should have been more careful, before making open accusations. This blunder just gives the Kremlin an easy way to portray Ukraine as an unreliable partner. The Ukrainian officials should have instead recognised the mistake and apologised for the friendly-fire incident.

[Cyclops]

The best spin Russia can place on this is that during their unconscionable terror attacks on Ukrainian civilians, their dangerously uncontrolled ordinance has hit some NATO members civilians.

Its a very predictable outcome of Russias terrorist policy.

I think the sober sensible respose is the one Putin is gaming for: personally I support Poland joining the war at once if they want to, and I expect NATO to support them.

Russia doesnt get to keep taking swings with their decrepit useless hardware setting fire to the innocent in pursuit of their lying terrorist agenda.

Mad dogs get put down for the good of the community. This dog Putin is definitely frothing.

[Muizer]

Quite the different. It would be deescalating by preventing missiles crossing accidently the Nato Border and forcing the polnish government to do something because of civilian deaths.

It's a recipe for escalation because accidents happen. I would not bet the fate of the world on NATO missiles never going astray. It's also a recipe for escalation if NATO patriots start intercepting Russian missiles targeting Ukrainian targets. Either way, it would make NATO an active combatant.

Better to 'sell' them to the Ukraine and have them do the shooting. That's the current complexion of the war and it is not in the interest of NATO to change that especially now that it's generally going badly for Russia.

By the way it is Russia, which is escalating the war by intentionally destroying the critical civilian energy infrastructure in face of coming winter. Its a warcrime to bomb intentionally civilian infrastructure, even more if its happening before Winter to cause civilian deads and masssuffering of the population to break the enemies morale.

Which wasn't successfull in every past war.

As far as escalation goes, it's nothing compared to NATO becoming openly involved in the conflict as a combatant.

As bad as the war in Ukraine is, atm it looks like Russia is going to lose, or at least not win. Why reshuffle the deck now and bring the great equalizer of MAD into play?

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

The accidents will increase with time, if Russia is hitting more and more on the energy infrastructure of ukrainian cities at the ukranian - polnish border and its the only kind of "success" Putin can present to his nation atm.

Modern western AA systems will come in some months at best. Sorry to say but Hawk is an AA system, which my 76 year old father was trained in the 60s. The Iris T needs also months to be produced because we now have peace time production facilities, not cold war ones.

Tell then the Poles, if some misled russian "cruise missile" or ukrainian air to air missile, which missed a russian one, hits a polnish marketplace full of people: "Accidents happens."

You simply ignore the russian escalation because of "MAD" and let things get worse, till a polnish government MUST DO something.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

If someone is interested in realtime NG and LNG statistics:

Energy Crisis Tracker: Real-Time Statistics on Europe's Gas Supplies - DER SPIEGEL

[Muizer]

The accidents will increase with time, if Russia is hitting more and more on the energy infrastructure of ukrainian cities at the ukranian - polnish border and its the only kind of "success" Putin can present to his nation atm.

Modern western AA systems will come in some months at best. Sorry to say but Hawk is an AA system, which my 76 year old father was trained in the 60s. The Iris T needs also months to be produced because we now have peace time production facilities, not cold war ones.

Tell then the Poles, if some misled russian "cruise missile" or ukrainian air to air missile, which missed a russian one, hits a polnish marketplace full of people: "Accidents happens."

You simply ignore the russian escalation because of "MAD" and let things get worse, till a polnish government MUST DO something.

The invasion in Iraq was the result of the US' need to "do something" in response to 9/11. I hope the Polish are not so dumb.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Lettting the pressure increase on national govenments to do something is increasing the risk for dumb and shortsighted decisions. Sitting there and hoping the best that nothing happens, is the wrong way.

I would prefer a 150 km deep defensive air security zone along the polnish-slovakian-hungarian-romanian - ukrainian border in multilateral nato hands about doing nothing and hoping a national government in election mode next year is doing the right thing.

And what are you saying about the Blackouts in Moldova because of the attacks on the ukrainian energy net? Russia isn't caring about their actions nor about escalation on other countries.

[PointOfViewGun]

As neither the Polish nor the American government have made official announcements yet, the certainty and sarcasm in some of the previous comments seem a bit premature. Now these anonymous US officials point towards Ukraine having fired the missile.

Biden has confirmed the experts' assessment that it was an Ukrainian missile. Poland has also refrained from evoking article 4. Not that surprised that journalists overreacted without first waiting for corroboration, but Kiev should have been more careful, before making open accusations. This blunder just gives the Kremlin an easy way to portray Ukraine as an unreliable partner. The Ukrainian officials should have instead recognised the mistake and apologised for the friendly-fire incident.

Stoltenberg also confirmed that the initial findings point towards an Ukrainian S-300 missile. Haven't seen much of Kiev accusing Russia of directly bombing Poland but NATO being straight with the truth was an important test of credibility. The missile was likely a failed interception of a Russian missile directed towards Lviv. Ukraine has nothing to apologize about that. It was not a mistake but a possible failed interception that Ukraine might not have been aware of.

[reavertm]

That is why no-fly-zone (including missiles) needs to be established over Ukraine by NATO, to protect Baltics, Poland, Slovakia and Romania from unaccounted garbage falling from the sky.

[Abdülmecid I]

Stoltenberg also confirmed that the initial findings point towards an Ukrainian S-300 missile. Haven't seen much of Kiev accusing Russia of directly bombing Poland but NATO being straight with the truth was an important test of credibility. The missile was likely a failed interception of a Russian missile directed towards Lviv. Ukraine has nothing to apologize about that. It was not a mistake but a possible failed interception that Ukraine might not have been aware of.

Zelensky blamed Russia for the strike yesterday. Same as the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs.

[Mithradates]

Those air defence missiles wouldn’t have been fired if Russia wasn’t bombarding Ukrainian cities in the first place. Either way it's Russia's responsiblity.

[Kyriakos]

Those air defence missiles wouldn’t have been fired if Russia wasn’t bombarding Ukrainian cities in the first place. Either way it's Russia's responsiblity.

You can't be responsible for the defense against you being unable to hit your missile and instead landing in another country and killing two people; that's just illogical.
Should be highlighted, imo, how irresponsible it was for Zelensky to make a statement claiming the missile was fired by Russia.

If one would like to read something positive in all this, it can be mentioned that Biden had no intention to bring nato officially any closer to the war - is fine with it being a proxy war. Hopefully it will stay that way.

Is it known is the s300 was one of Ukraine's own stock (before the invasion) or one of those gifted to it?

[conon394]

The invasion in Iraq was the result of the US' need to "do something" in response to 9/11. I hope the Polish are not so dumb.

Well technically that was A-stan. Iraq was a fantasy brewed up a Cheney and Team B leftovers to hijack the state of mind of the US to try fix the end of the Gulf war they did not like.

[PointOfViewGun]

Zelensky blamed Russia for the strike yesterday. Same as the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs.

At a time when about 100 Russian missiles targeted Ukrainian cities all around the country.

[Ludicus]

Zelensky blamed Russia for the strike yesterday. Same as the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs.

Exactly. And he added, "action is needed".


Poland says missile that hit it was Ukrainian stray ... - Reuters

A missile that hit Poland was probably a stray fired by Ukraine's air defences and not a Russian strike, Poland and NATO said on Wednesday

I just heard, a few minutes ago, military experts on CNN explaining that the accident was not caused by a Russian missile.

That said,the new version by some NATO members is that the responsibility for the accident lies with the aggressor power, although they acknowledge that it was caused by a Ukrainian missile.
As of now, Zelensky has carte blanche to reproduce the accident, because the "responsibility lies with Russia", and he will continue to try to engage NATO directly in a world conflict, which will inevitably be nuclear.

[Muizer]

Any NATO military activity over Russian, Belarussian or Ukrainian territory, whether planes or missiles, would up the ante and make it absolutely clear for all to see that this is between NATO and Russia. No more plausible deniability. I know many think Putin does not care for anything but his own vision, but that does not mean it won't still make a huge difference in his favour if he gets public opinion actively behind him, which we have no reason to doubt is what would happen. Half a century cold war isn't that readily forgotten. At a stroke, everything Putin has been claiming about NATO will become the obvious truth. And if anyone wants to argue that we had 'good reasons' for it or 'but Putin started it himself', well what can I say is "grow up already". That's kindergarten playground logic. There's no adult you can run to to validate your pov. It will be their bombs against ours that decides.

[Ludicus]

Yesterday,Poland’s foreign minister said it was a Russian missile. Poland's Foreign Ministry says Russian-made missile

It was at Biden's insistence that the Polish government was forced to admit the truth, and, as far as I know, in a few hours Poland will give up invoking NATO's Article 4.Biden pledged US support for "as long as it takes", but not to the point of intervening directly in the war, with NATO forces, because he knows well that Russia would be forced to act, using its nuclear power.