Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[conon394]

Indeed, but wartime industry has not emerged in Ukraine as a primary means of the patriotic mobilization of society, unlike what happened in the US and Russia during the WW2,
CEO of Ukraine's Motor Sich arrested, accused of treason

Umm err not sure what your point is. Wow a case of treason. Show me the country without such? Says nothing about the Ukrainian arms industry in general.

Was Kutuzov's retreat to Moscow in 1812 a bad thing? It certainly was, but for... Napoleon. In 1942, the battle along the banks of the Volga river..how well did this work...for Hitler?

Biting hard into the Russian spin are we? In any case the analogy does not work so well well when you are recapturing your own territory vs invading someplace else.

What will happen to the Ukrainian civilian population if Russia starts destroying power plants across Ukraine again when temperatures drop to -20 degrees Celsius? Winter favors Russia and will be bloody.

Indeed. One supposed Russia could stop and go home? Has Moscow withdrawn all its annexations to just Donbas and Crimea?

[Kyriakos]

There's the persistent rumor that a considerable percentage of the gifted weapons, then gets sold by Ukraine in the black market.

[saamohod]

There's the persistent rumor that a considerable percentage of the gifted weapons, then gets sold by Ukraine in the black market.

You forgot to add ".. rumor spread by Russia and its proxies .."

[conon394]

There's the persistent rumor that a considerable percentage of the gifted weapons, then gets sold by Ukraine in the black market.

And a persistent lack of any credible evidence.

[Nebaki]

then gets sold by Ukraine in the black market.

Who they gonna sell NATO-Standard Arms which are depended on Western Supply Chain - greece?

[conon394]

Who they gonna sell NATO-Standard Arms which are depended on Western Supply Chain - greece?

My guess at the ragged edge like any war small stuff is getting pilfered. But put that in perspective I mean how long would it take me to find a dozen stories about US aid military or otherwise being lost to corruption in A-stan or Iraq over the 20 years of those ventures or aid going unaccounted for or lost?

Also let's be fair last I checked Russia and Ukraine are sorta fighting the largest war in Europe in quite a while I really doubt even with both sides run by absolute saints of accounting they could account for all there kit and gear and supplies. Its a war. Hell the Pentagon got a crap ton bigger budget then both together and can't even pass its own audits in more or less peace time
https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news...teady-progress

[Cyclops]

Not sure about all this guff. Winter does not favour Russia because they are Nirds with 50% frost resistance.

On the steppe swamps and forests of Eastern Europe armies that storm in under prepared expecting a quick win and get stuck suffer. EG Russia in Finland 1940 Nazis in 1941, Napoleon 1812, Putin 2022.

Well led and supplied forces suffer less, EG Central Powers 1917: this favours Ukraine at present. Likely Russian winter gear has been sold by corrupt officers just like the rest of their stuff, if it was provided at all.

The idea Ukraine is selling all the donated weapons is weird: if so Russia is getting caned by unarmed Ukrainians?

The idea the Ukrainian army is 70% NATO is also an odd lie to peddle, surely thats (yet another) nuclear red line Putin threatened us all with?

Putin is getting desperate. I suspect his forces will suffer worse than the Ukrainian civilians he is torturing.

What a low immoral scum Putin is, tormenting civilians and his own soldiers. Better get a taster to sample all the banan, Vladimir, I think a Russian election is coming.

[Nebaki]

My guess at the ragged edge like any war small stuff is getting pilfered. But put that in perspective I mean how long would it take me to find a dozen stories about US aid military or otherwise being lost to corruption in A-stan or Iraq over the 20 years of those ventures or aid going unaccounted for or lost?

Main Issue there is variety which is a huge complicated logistical task even to maintain those arms is really difficult. But Ukraine was already procuring even before the Invasion western based arms aswell equipment and changing his own standard to became less dependent from Russia. I don´t think that most arms especially from USA will change like in Middle East or elsewhere his owner. They already build some kind inner-alliance with east-european countries former warsaw-pact members especially Poland since they share some historic-cultural heritage. Some of those probably return to those countries, an example would be German made arms changing their owner from Ukraine to some Baltic Country since they procured their arms from Germany and would suit their standard.

On the other hand returning these back to arms industry is still a option which gonna refurbish them and sell to someone else or recycling an amount of which are already in such bad condition that any further use makes no sense.

[Kyriakos]

Not sure about all this guff. Winter does not favour Russia because they are Nirds with 50% frost resistance.

On the steppe swamps and forests of Eastern Europe armies that storm in under prepared expecting a quick win and get stuck suffer. EG Russia in Finland 1940 Nazis in 1941, Napoleon 1812, Putin 2022.

Well led and supplied forces suffer less, EG Central Powers 1917: this favours Ukraine at present. Likely Russian winter gear has been sold by corrupt officers just like the rest of their stuff, if it was provided at all.

The idea Ukraine is selling all the donated weapons is weird: if so Russia is getting caned by unarmed Ukrainians?

The idea the Ukrainian army is 70% NATO is also an odd lie to peddle, surely thats (yet another) nuclear red line Putin threatened us all with?

Putin is getting desperate. I suspect his forces will suffer worse than the Ukrainian civilians he is torturing.

What a low immoral scum Putin is, tormenting civilians and his own soldiers. Better get a taster to sample all the banan, Vladimir, I think a Russian election is coming.

Hey, it'd be pretty silly if one was to think they are selling US weapons in the black market. Most of what they are given are old soviet stuff - part of the scheme to have nato countries (clearly not US ) get rid of them - and those are easier to push to various armies that aren't very potent (africa, central asia etc).

[Cyclops]

Hey, it'd be pretty silly if one was to think they are selling US weapons in the black market. Most of what they are given are old soviet stuff - part of the scheme to have nato countries (clearly not US ) get rid of them - and those are easier to push to various armies that aren't very potent (africa, central asia etc).

Right so the ex-Soviet weapons are sold and they are pushing Putins scav army back with what? Harsh language?

The Russian army is being outperformed. Its likely this is (among other reasons) because the Ukrainians have higher morale.

Lower morale tends to lead to (among other things) material lose due to corruption and pilfering.

Its more likely the Russian forces have suffered material liss through corruption and pilfering.

This is like the fake "General Winter is a Russian" narrative. Most likely pilfering and corruption has degraded Russian operational effectiveness.

Nazism, aggresion, dirty bombs, plans for ethnic cleansing, degraded morale, war crimes: all accusations levelled by the Kremlin that seem more true of Russia itself.

[Kyriakos]

They don't need old stuff to push Russia back, besides, the stuff rumored to be sold in the black market aren't heavy machinery like tanks, but secondary.

[PointOfViewGun]

It's funny how when one is pressed on such rumors they get leveled down to insignificant small arms...

[Ludicus]

Wow a case of treason. Show me the country without such?

If I remember well,the American war industry during the WW2. I don't remember them transferring helicopter engines to the Germany Army
(Btw, the JSC Motor Sich is one of the largest engine manufacturers for airplanes and helicopters worldwide)

After Kherson, can Ukraine and Russia talk peace?

Zelenskyy’s government is reportedly under pressure from Washington to soften its uncompromising stance.
To stress his point about peace, Milley evoked the great powers’ failure to negotiate at an earlier stage in World War I – a mistake that led to millions more casualties and catastrophic developments in several countries, notably the Russian Empire.
Milley’s remarks represent a change of tack in the official US rhetoric, raising questions about a possible push for peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv. What is more, in the weeks preceding the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, the United States and Russia resumed communication about Ukraine at the level of top security officials.

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson could have been prevented by the Ukrainian army, which did nothing to hinder the withdrawal. Kherson keeps getting bombed by the Russians? nope.Right now Kherson is the safest place in Ukraine: Zelensky was there today. Rumors of peace negotiations are increasing.
Let's wait and see.

[conon394]

If I remember well,the American war industry during the WW2. I don't remember them transferring helicopter engines to the Germany Army
(Btw, the JSC Motor Sich is one of the largest engine manufacturers for airplanes and helicopters worldwide)

After Kherson, can Ukraine and Russia talk peace?


The Russian withdrawal from Kherson could have been prevented by the Ukrainian army, which did nothing to hinder the withdrawal. Kherson keeps getting bombed by the Russians? nope.Right now Kherson is the safest place in Ukraine: Zelensky was there today. Rumors of peace negotiations are increasing.
Let's wait and see.

I do believe Jake Sullivan just had something to say on that


'I’ve obviously seen a number of press statements on this topic, and I thank you for the opportunity to lay down what I think are the four core elements of consensus in the US government, and, fundamentally, what President Biden believes about this question.



The first is: He said in the press conference it’s up to Ukraine to decide when and how they want to negotiate. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. We’re not going to pressure them; we’re not going to dictate to them.


The second is that we believe in a just peace based on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that are not things we made up but are embedded in the U.N. charter. The G7 leaders spoke to these principles of a just peace, including territorial integrity. President Zelenskyy has spoken to these.


The third point is that Russia is doubling down on its “annexation” – quote, unquote – annexation of Ukrainian territory. That’s not exactly a sign of seriousness about negotiating. As long as Russia holds the position that it simply gets to grab as much territory as it wants by force, it’s hard to see them as a good-faith counterparty in a negotiation.


And the fourth and final point is that the U.S. approach remains the same today as it was six months ago, which is that we’re going to do everything we can, including our announcement, our military announcement – our military security announcement yesterday – to put Ukraine in the best possible position on the battlefield so that when they make their determination to proceed, they’re in the best possible position at the negotiating table.


And one more big-ticket item. So there’s this kind of sense about when is Ukraine going to negotiate. Okay, ultimately, at a 30,000-foot level, Ukraine is the party of peace in this conflict, and Russia is the party of war. Russia invaded Ukraine. If Russia chose to stop fighting in Ukraine and left, it would be the end of the war. If Ukraine chose to stop fighting and give up, it would be the end of Ukraine.


So this whole notion, I think, in the Western press, of “When is Ukraine going to negotiate?” misses the underlying fundamentals, which is that Russia continues, even as recently as the last 24 hours, to make these outlandish claims about annexed Russian territory quote unquote – “Russian territory” – including territory they just left.'

Note deliver on Air Force One - Might also be interpreted as Milley better go have cup of STFU

Also

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/14/polit...art/index.html

Ankara meeting explicitly not about negotiations

The Russian withdrawal from Kherson could have been prevented by the Ukrainian army

Really Field Marshal Ludicus? At what cost? Ukrainian military advances have been one of rapid maneuver and right now that is not in the cards till the Winter goes hard cold. Certainly nothing that involved getting sucked into a urban fight over Kherson could be to their advantage. Even warm body 50 year cannon fodder could do damage in an urban fight. Ukraine has had the advantage in long range fires and with western AA over Manpad level finally arriving why not Russia leave relatively easy.

---

If I remember well,the American war industry during the WW2. I don't remember them transferring helicopter engines to the Germany Army
(Btw, the JSC Motor Sich is one of the largest engine manufacturers for airplanes and helicopters worldwide)

Hmm I do recall these people

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_spies

or how bout some Benedict Arnold.

Also you can find German American who transferred Industrial and military manufacturing information to Germany during WW2 and were discovered and arrested.

[Nebaki]

It's funny how when one is pressed on such rumors they get leveled down to insignificant small arms...

Russia is no longer a conventionally serious threat, yet we still got some kind rejection to the harsh reality.

[Cyclops]

Russia is no longer a conventionally serious threat, yet we still got some kind rejection to the harsh reality.

Reality can be what you want ut to be

NATO is the aggressor (Russia is the aggressor)
When will Ukraine negotiate? (Russia is the aggressor)
Ukraine army is corrupt war criminals ( the Russians are)
Winter is coming (for the Russians)

Both sides play the propaganda game but boy are the Russians doing it wrong. So far from reapity their narative keeps breaking down.

[antaeus]

Reality can be what you want ut to be

Both sides play the propaganda game but boy are the Russians doing it wrong. So far from reapity their narative keeps breaking down.

That entirely depends on who your audience is. The populations in all those countries who abstain at UN votes and the fringe political elements in Western countries will lap it up. They just need to throw stuff against the wall to see what sticks - confirmation bias and all. But for sure, we certainly aren't that audience. Well you and I aren't. I can't speak for others in this thread...

[Nebaki]

Both sides play the propaganda game but boy are the Russians doing it wrong. So far from reapity their narative keeps breaking down.

In the meantime those breaking downs happening on a timeline of just under 24h< and we are obviously seeing that here.

[Mithradates]

US official: Russian missiles crossed into Poland, killing 2

Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller did not immediately confirm the information, but said top leaders were holding an emergency meeting due to a “crisis situation.”

Polish media reported that two people died Tuesday afternoon after a projectile struck an area where grain was drying in Przewodów, a Polish village near the border with Ukraine.

Probably unintentional but NATO can't ignore it.

[PointOfViewGun]

You know what's a good thing to do to signal that you're willing to negotiation? Discriminately bombing cities...

Russia launches fresh missile strikes across Ukraine as G20 leaders meet

Russia launched a wave of missile strikes across Ukraine on Tuesday, leaving many cities without power, as G20 leaders met in Bali.

Ukrainian authorities said it was another planned attack aimed at the country’s energy infrastructure facilities. The deputy head of presidential administration, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, wrote on Telegram that the energy situation across Ukraine was “critical” as a result.

Ukraine’s public broadcaster reported that the strikes targeted Kyiv, Kyiv region, Kharkiv city as well as Poltava, Mykolaiv, Dnipro, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskiy, Lviv, Volyn, Rivne, Cherkassy, Odesa, Kirovohrad, and Chernihiv regions.