View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    99 69.23%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.49%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.80%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    10 6.99%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.90%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.59%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #6081

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I also don't imagine how Ukraine manages to fully win, that is even if (and that is a huge "if") they got control of all Donbas and Crimea, they still wouldn't have anything to bargain with if they don't give up parts to Russia.
    It is unclear to me what you mean by getting control of those areas and then not having anything to bargain with. At this point of the conflict, the objective of Ukraine and its western supporters is that Russia will be beaten militarily and retreat from the entire area of Ukraine, and there will be no bargaining on the matter.

  2. #6082

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    It is unclear to me what you mean by getting control of those areas and then not having anything to bargain with. At this point of the conflict, the objective of Ukraine and its western supporters is that Russia will be beaten militarily and retreat from the entire area of Ukraine, and there will be no bargaining on the matter.
    As long as there's no official ceasefire, Ukraine won't be able to join NATO or EU to gain security guarantees. Even if Russia lose everything, the ceasefire itself is their bargaining chip. If the hostilities cease de fact, but not de jure, most of Europe will probably loosen sanctions, and Ukraine isn't insane enough to invade Russia proper in order to dictate terms from the position of force. So in the end, the ceasefire will be a trade of sorts. IMO most likely the only thing they'll get from it is indefinite lease of Sevastopol...although I'm not sure what utility they'll get from it now.

  3. #6083
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Afaik Sevastopol is almost 100% russian/pro-russian, so there isn't any chance it won't be part of Russia regardless of everything else.
    I think that if Ukraine can agree to recognize Crimea as de jure russian, it would be the more obvious way out of the war (Donbas returning to Ukraine/no autonomy).
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  4. #6084
    Vanoi's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/i...010014636.html

    Israel is slowly being dragged in to the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. Israel providing more non-military assistance to Ukraine and there are growing concerns among the Israelis that the Russians could be assisting Iran on it's nuclear program.

    I don't know if the Russians are helping Iran with it's possible nuclear ambitions, but I am sure Russia is giving Iran something in return for the weapons they are giving away.

  5. #6085

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Afaik Sevastopol is almost 100% russian/pro-russian, so there isn't any chance it won't be part of Russia regardless of everything else.
    I think that if Ukraine can agree to recognize Crimea as de jure russian, it would be the more obvious way out of the war (Donbas returning to Ukraine/no autonomy).
    Sevastopol is little less than 3/4th Russian but pro-Russian? Based on what exactly?
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  6. #6086

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Sar1n View Post
    As long as there's no official ceasefire, Ukraine won't be able to join NATO or EU to gain security guarantees. Even if Russia lose everything, the ceasefire itself is their bargaining chip.

    It would be quite bizarre if NATO let Russia blackmail them on a self-imposed technicality. The clause is there to prevent NATO being drawn into a conflict that it has nothing to do with due to an existing crisis of a candidate country. Not to prevent helping a prospective ally that is being subjected to a Russian onslaught, the prevention of which is pretty much the reason NATO exists in the first place. NATO countries are already involved in this conflict, and accepting Ukraine would not create a new conflict. I don't see any reason why NATO should hand Russia a bargaining chip like that.


    Quote Originally Posted by Sar1n View Post
    If the hostilities cease de fact, but not de jure, most of Europe will probably loosen sanctions, and Ukraine isn't insane enough to invade Russia proper in order to dictate terms from the position of force. So in the end, the ceasefire will be a trade of sorts.

    It would be a horrible mistake to just resume normal trade relations while the war criminals in Russia are in power. That wasn't done with Hitler or Japan, and I sure hope it won't be done now. Europe should have the good sense to shut Russia off until the damages have been paid and there is someone more trustworthy in power. If that isn't done, Europe surely deserves the next attack.

  7. #6087
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Russia can't manage (using conventional weapons) to even defeat Ukraine. What makes you think it can use such weapons to invade "Europe" (whatever that means; I suppose the Eu, though it doesn't have a common army)?
    Not seeing why it would want to do such either, at worst it could operate with russian minorities (as in Ukraine), but that concerns only a tiny number of (typically very small) Eu countries, in the baltic.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  8. #6088
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Afaik Sevastopol is almost 100% russian/pro-russian, so there isn't any chance it won't be part of Russia regardless of everything else.
    You know the idea of simply deporting all Russians from recaptured territory has been floated.

  9. #6089
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I also don't imagine how Ukraine manages to fully win, that is even if (and that is a huge "if") they got control of all Donbas and Crimea, they still wouldn't have anything to bargain with if they don't give up parts to Russia.
    There's always the chance this will go nuclear at some point, and from there it's anyone's guess what will happen.
    Ukraine can't win unless USA/NATO put boots in Ukraine, as the Ukranian army has been effectively destroyed (as I already mentioned). Which will result in Russia targeting any US units trying to set-up within Ukraine which will lead to a major escalation imo.
    Also Russia doesn't need to use nukes. These days Russia has precisely accurate ballistic missiles. Nukes is the old strategem when we had tech that wasn't nowhere near as precise/accurate.
    Just hitting near the target was effective as nukes are capable of massive damage but w the precision we got these days nukes are not needed in destroying a target.

  10. #6090
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    ^Yes, afaik nukes are good only if you want to annihilate densely populated cities and effectively remove them from human habitation. Certainly they aren't to be used against armies (this isn't Braveheart with the archers trick )
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  11. #6091
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Isn't there some reasonably developed tactical nuclear weapons and doctrine? Not just area denial and ship killing, actual terrestrial military applications?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    You know the idea of simply deporting all Russians from recaptured territory has been floated.
    Its a horrible possibility. Shamefully the Wesg allowed this in Kosovo, making the Serbs there pay for the crimes of war criminals elsewhere. I think its most likely many ethnic Russians in Ukraine will be treated far wirse as a result of his terrorism. They were in oart his wxcuse to attack, and they will be scapegoated once he is defeated.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  12. #6092
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It's not "area denial". If your largest cities get nuked, you are finished as a country. Includes the US, let alone Ukraine.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  13. #6093
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Ukraine can't win unless USA/NATO put boots in Ukraine, as the Ukranian army has been effectively destroyed (as I already mentioned)
    Repeating an unsubstantiated claim does not in fact make it true.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  14. #6094
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  15. #6095

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Stario View Post
    Ukraine can't win unless USA/NATO put boots in Ukraine, as the Ukranian army has been effectively destroyed (as I already mentioned). Which will result in Russia targeting any US units trying to set-up within Ukraine which will lead to a major escalation imo.
    Also Russia doesn't need to use nukes. These days Russia has precisely accurate ballistic missiles. Nukes is the old strategem when we had tech that wasn't nowhere near as precise/accurate.
    Just hitting near the target was effective as nukes are capable of massive damage but w the precision we got these days nukes are not needed in destroying a target.
    Not as you mentioned but as you lied repeatedly. No, Ukraine army is not effectively destroyed. Far from it. It's in a much better state than the Russian army.
    The Armenian Issue
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  16. #6096
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Soviet WWII tactics, NKVD barrier troops
    Their desperation is real...



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  17. #6097
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    The US exports almost no refined gas or other refined petroleum to Europe.
    Biden promised to send LNG to Europe, remember?
    US Europe gas supply: The problem with Joe Biden's promise
    The United States and European Union on Friday announced a new partnership to reduce the continent’s reliance on Russian energy, the start of a years-long initiative to further isolate Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine
    Europe has forgotten that a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.If Europe wanted to reduce its dependence on a single country, it had better do it... gradually. Scholz is now in China to avoid Germany's industrial catastrophe. Germany remains dependent on Chinese raw materials. Without rare earths there is no green energy.

    Scholz says,

    we don't want to decouple from China.No country is the “backyard” of another. It is here that new centers of power are emerging in a multipolar world, and we aim to establish and expand partnerships with all of them.

    At the end of next week, I will travel to Southeast Asia and the G20 summit, and while I’m visiting China, Germany’s federal president will be in Japan and Korea. with regard to China, is that this country, with its 1.4 billion inhabitants and its economic power will, of course, play a key role on the world stage in the future — just as it has done for long periods throughout history. But this justifies neither the calls by some to isolate China, nor a quest for hegemonic Chinese dominance, or even a Sino-centric world order.
    China remains an important business and trading partner for Germany and Europe — we don’t want to decouple from it.

    A significant amount of trade between Germany and China concerns products where there is neither a lack of alternative suppliers nor a risk of dangerous monopolies. Instead, China, Germany and Europe benefit equally...we must explore where cooperation remains in our mutual interest. Ultimately, the world needs China.

    China also has a crucial role to play in ending the worldwide food crisis, in supporting highly indebted countries and in reaching the U.N.’s Sustainable Development Goals. Without resolute action to reduce emissions in China, we cannot win the fight against climate change. It is, therefore, good to see that Beijing has set ambitious targets for expanding renewable's
    ---
    POLITICO

    In an op-ed for POLITICO and the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Scholz said Berlin's goal was not to "decouple" its industry from China and also echoed warnings from his predecessor Angela Merkel that the U.S. should not whip up a new Cold War against China.

    It's the economy, stupid

    On the business side, big companies like Siemens, BASF or Volkswagen seem undeterred by Germany's Russia fiasco and have been pushing Scholz not to abandon the business-friendly China policies of the Merkel-era — particularly now, as they hope for a further investment boom as the COVID pandemic recedes.
    "I think there's an urgent need for us to get away from China-bashing and take a bit of a self-critical look at ourselves," BASF chief Martin Brudermüller said last week, as his company announced the relocation of some of its chemical production from Germany to China.

    China, "with its 1.4 billion inhabitants and its economic power will, of course, play a key role on the world stage in the future," he wrote.
    When you repeat a mistake, it is not a mistake anymore: it's a decision.This is what Scholz wants to avoid,against the judgement of the irresponsible German Greens.

    --

    Erdogan, Putin agreed to send Russian grains to poor African countries for free- Reuters

    Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that he had agreed with counterpart Vladimir Putin that Russian grains sent under the Black Sea export deal should go to poor African countries for free.
    "In my phone call with Vladimir Putin, he said 'Let's send this grain to countries such as Djibouti, Somalia and Sudan for free' - and we agreed," Erdogan said in a speech to businesspeople in Istanbul.
    Erdogan is a key mediator in Ukraine war, but unfortunately, he belongs to the "jungle". That's why Turkey has waited decades - but has already given up - to become part of the "Borrell’s Garden", which by its own admission... "...is only 5% of the world's population."

    According the the European Garden, Turkey: persistently further from EU values and standards. But, of course, in order to be part of NATO none of that is necessary. It would be nice if Stoltenberg would stop talking about "our values”.

    ---
    No, calling for diplomacy is not a 'Westsplaining'

    Since the start of the Ukraine war last February, many arguments have been deployed against the notion that the United States should engage in serious diplomatic efforts to negotiate an end to the war. One of the most persuasive has cast the idea as a form of neo-imperialism.
    Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD) has called it a “bad colonial habit” that assumes peace “depends upon the wishes of the great powers and the great powers alone,” as he renounced the letter he had signed calling for greater U.S. involvement in diplomacy.
    His words echo the charge of “Westsplaining” that has frequently been lodged against those calling for peace talks. The correct position, according to these voices, is for Washington and Ukraine’s other military backers relatively unaffected by the conflict to simply support Ukraine’s leaders as long as they are willing to fight ― even if, as the White House openly acknowledges, this path increases the risks of nuclear escalation.
    This ignores, of course, the enormous costs being disproportionately paid by the Global South as a result of the war’s prolongation and the fact that it’s overwhelmingly developing countries ― which continue to struggle with the legacy of centuries of Western colonialism ― calling for negotiations.
    A brief and incomplete list of the states that have added their voices to this appeal for negotiations to end the war includes China, India, Turkey, Indonesia, Pakistan, Mexico, South Africa, the 22-member-state Arab League, and the 55-member-state African Union. To that list we can add Brazil, where both just-defeated far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro and his victorious left-wing challenger Lula da Silva have separately called for talks to end the conflict. Together, these governments and bodies represent over 5 billion people, or roughly 65 percent of the world’s population.
    The 30 member states of NATO, by contrast, are ― other than Turkey ― all located in the Global North, many of them the former colonial powers that carved up and subjugated the countries listed above
    They represent just shy of 950 million people, though adding prospective new members Finland and Sweden, as well as Ukraine’s pre-war population, would put this a hair over one billion, or roughly 13 percent of the world’s population.
    It’s also not surprising when you factor in the disproportionate costs being paid right now by the developing world as a result of the war’s economic ripple effects. Between January and September, more than 90 countries were gripped by sometimes deadly protests over skyrocketing fuel prices, a third of them countries that saw no such protests a year earlier. Washington’s own ambassador to the United Nations warned in August that the war is plunging 40 million people into food insecurity, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, while France’s permanent mission to the UN estimates 13 million more people could face starvation over this and next year.
    A World Food Program regional chief has warned of impending widespread famine to explain why “ending the war is critical.”
    Not only has the war in Ukraine forced cash-strapped African governments still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic to spend more of their meager resources on preserving their social safety nets, thus diverting funds from long-term development projects, but war-induced inflation has resulted in a sharp increase in global interest rates that makes it much more difficult for these governments to service their external debt.
    When an African Development Bank asked Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland ― who has said that the world will only be safe when “the Russian tyrant and his armies are entirely vanquished” ― about signals from the West that the massive deliveries of aid to Ukraine would mean fewer resources would flow to Africa, and the dangers of the continent “backsliding” as a result, Freeland responded that “democracy can only be defended by people themselves if they’re actually prepared to die for their democracy.”
    “[Ukrainians] are fighting for themselves,” she said. “The countries of Africa ― this is a choice they need to make for themselves. … We have to set aside paternalism.”

    This notion – that the war must continue no matter the risks and the suffering borne by both Ukrainians and the rest of the world — while dominant in Western discourse, gains little currency elsewhere and particularly in the Global South where the vast majority of the world’s population resides. It is only a relative fraction of the world’s nation states ― concentrated in the wealthy, former imperial powers and their allies in the Global North — that appear indifferent to the suffering of their former colonial subjects ― and that view talks to end the war as soon as possible as being out of the question.

    Calls for diplomacy aren’t part of a “colonial reflex.” But rejecting them might just be.
    Last edited by Ludicus; November 04, 2022 at 11:48 AM.
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  18. #6098
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    You should not hold back that Scholz had at least achieved that Xi had openly declared, that the use of atomic weapons or threatening with them is unacceptable and his red line.

    The Rest ist dirty business Policy or Realpolitik.
    Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; November 04, 2022 at 12:15 PM.
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  19. #6099
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Biden promised to send LNG to Europe, remember?
    US Europe gas supply: The problem with Joe Biden's promise
    Umm you are confusing as I tried to point out the different use of 'gas'. He was not and has considered stopping LGN exports. His concern was and is the American fetish for huge vehicles means that prices at the pump for gasoline and diesel are and remain an issue. The US/EU trade in those is trivial (see my link) and the EU is a net exporter in them to the US. BUT again LNG that was not the 'gas' being discussed.

    In some way I'm surprised he did not a gasoline and diesel ban or limits would hurt the global south not Europe and most Americans can't find that on the map and if would knocked something of the top of gas prices it might have been worth it going into the mid terms. But by the numbers he have had to spend the next two years trying to paper over relation with Mexico/and the rest of the Americas.

    The Problem in the Fortune link is completely different is just having enough terminals in working order on either side of the Atlantic. If I'm not mistaken Biden has done a fair amount to expedite all LNG terminal construction and approval at the moment and getting flack from the hard green side of his base.

    It is however silly if what you is agreeing to Putin's demands under the threat of nuclear blackmail and simply imposing them on Ukraine.
    Last edited by conon394; November 04, 2022 at 04:07 PM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  20. #6100
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I don't like at all the angle of "we have to keep the war going, so as to ensure there is peace (afterwards)". A bit too much like the more direct and honest "war is peace" from 1984. At least there the government wasn't trying to pretend it's something other than ensuring continuous focus on a war economy.
    At the current projection, it won't be a surprise if we also get to "ignorance is strength", whereas the "freedom is slavery" already is considerably closer.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










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