Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alexander78]

Regardless of what you all think, Russians are connected with Ukrainians not only by traditions, faith and common history for centuries, they are also close relatives. Half of Russians have close relatives in Ukraine. Now ask yourself the question: how unfounded are Russia's interests in Ukraine. When Nuland says that Russia cannot have interests in Ukraine, I just smile. Whether the United States wants it or not, Ukraine is an integral part of Russia, just as Texas is an integral part of the United States. Another issue is geopolitics, in which the United States wants to remain in the role of the main character. I will not judge how it turns out. But I will only say that Ukraine can really become the cause of terrible events if some hot (stupid) talking heads in NATO or Congress do not understand that it's time to hit the brakes and not provoke the Russians in the sphere of their interests and influence.

[Infidel144]

The answer to that question is "nothing".

It is almost as though you are very consistent.

Now that we got over this issue, will you finally attempt to rationalize why should American taxpayer care about foreign conflict that doesn't affect him in any way?

LOL...

[Heathen Hammer]

multilateral international community recognizes Crimea as a part of Ukraine.

It can recognize it as part of Uruguay if it wants to, but it won't change the fact that Crimea is part of Russia.

Sort of like how Putin gifted himself Crimea with very little legality and everyone ultimately had little choice but to roll with it.

Crimeans voted for it, at the end of the day that's the only thing that matters. Ukrainian government and its Western owners do not like that? Well, too bad, "multilateral international community" of globalist interests better get used to things happening, that they will neither like nor find legitimate, because there's more where that came from. I mean that's how West itself acted only a decade ago.

[antaeus]

Crimeans* voted for it, at the end of the day that's the only thing that matters. Ukrainian government and its Western owners do not like that? Well, too bad, "multilateral international community" of globalist interests better get used to things happening, that they will neither like nor find legitimate

*some did. But it was hardly an election held under fair and equitable circumstances.

As for what the multilateral international community might do about it? The most discussed option at this stage seems to be to cut Russia off from the SWIFT payment messaging system. This was threatened in 2014 and was actually done to Iran in 2012 (causing an instant 30% loss in oil revenue - seriously impacting on Iran's ability to fund anything).

The Kremlin or realistically Putin (as Russia isn't an independent actor these days) has admitted this would be a serious threat. It wouldn't be quite as impactful as it would have been in 2014 where Medvedev suggested it would be tantamount to a declaration of war. Russia has since moved to mitigate the impact of this, but even with the alternatives in place, it would still basically break the Russian economy - and hurt a lot of Russian businesses and individuals for the long term (currently between 70 and 80% of all transactions in or with Russia are managed through SWIFT). It would ultimately cost the European and American economies more damage in dollar values - because they are exposed in the Russian finance sector. But given that Russia isn't that much larger than Australia or Italy financially, it doesn't have a lot of resilience by comparison - particularly once the cost of Covid has been factored in.

The other possible consequence for Putin, is that continued pressure on Ukraine might actually bring about that which he is trying to avoid - by giving NATO back it's original mission purpose - with or without Ukraine, he might strengthen it.

Thus a Russian invasion of the Ukraine (while very unlikely for the reasons Cookie mentioned) would provide Russia with an internally fragile and weak ally that would be an absolute financial drain to maintain, a disgruntled and armed violent Ukrainian opposition with a strong anti-Russian purpose and likely American funding that would have to be managed, an astronomical financial loss that would hit the Russian people hardest for the short to medium term while they bring alternatives online, and a more robust, refocussed and rejuvenated NATO in Eastern Europe right on it's doorstep. That's about what the multilateral international community might do about it.

But I suspect Putin knows this. And what we're seeing is posturing to do exactly what everyone else is doing. To keep the plate spinning game going until someone else drops one. I also think there might be a touch of personal ego involved. Biden has been all about China for the last year. Putin has never liked 'not being an important global player'. So rather than pairing up with China to make global issues overwhelming for Biden, he's throwing his toys because he felt ignored in his corner.

[Heathen Hammer]

Silly me, I keep forgetting that elections that don't result with a pro-Western outcome don't count as legitimate. But seriously, in the article you posted it literally says how Crimeans invited the observers and they refused to come, so if anything it sounds like international observers aren't worth that much.
SWIFT isn't really something US controls, and half of the pathetic joke that we call "multilateral international community" has too much ties to Russia and Russian money to make it even something that can be on the table.
Biden even somewhat admitted that, when he essentially capitulated on all the huffing and puffing about Ukraine Murreka was doing since 2014 and said that he pretty much won't do anything even if Russia invades directly.
Putin clearly doesn't care about NATO, since he practically has half of NATO countries in his pocket, in EU especially.
So yeah, Russia can and likely will annex parts of Ukraine, if not the whole thing with zero to little negative consequences. Let's just stop pretending that its 2001 and admit that America and West in general are no longer world's only power blocks that everyone has to obey.
If Americans are smart, they'll try and get Russia on their side against China... or get tag teamed by the both.

[antaeus]

Again... This debate is full of people referencing their opinions, and all you respond with is unreferenced rant.

elections that don't result with a pro-Western outcome don't count as legitimate.

Evidence this claim.

sounds like international observers aren't worth that much.

Evidence this claim.

half of the pathetic joke that we call "multilateral international community" has too much ties to Russia and Russian money to make it even something that can be on the table.

Evidence this claim.

Biden even somewhat admitted that, when he essentially capitulated on all the huffing and puffing about Ukraine Murreka was doing since 2014 and said that he pretty much won't do anything even if Russia invades directly.

Evidence this claim.

Putin clearly doesn't care about NATO, since he practically has half of NATO countries in his pocket, in EU especially.

Evidence this claim.

Let's just stop pretending that its 2001 and admit that America and West in general are no longer world's only power blocks that everyone has to obey.

This is just speculative. You don't need to evidence this opinion.

If Americans are smart, they'll try and get Russia on their side against China... or get tag teamed by the both.

This is just speculative. You don't need to evidence this opinion.

Blah sophistry. Blah gainsaying.

[Heathen Hammer]

Again... This debate is full of people referencing their opinions, and all you respond with is unreferenced rant.



Evidence this claim.



Evidence this claim.



Evidence this claim.



Evidence this claim.



Evidence this claim.



This is just speculative. You don't need to evidence this opinion.



This is just speculative. You don't need to evidence this opinion.

*cuts out the part of the post* @ *asks for the part of the posts that was cut out*
Yep, gainsying and empty sophistry but now with extra steps.

[antaeus]

*cuts out the part of the post* @ *asks for the part of the posts that was cut out*
Yep, gainsying and empty sophistry but now with extra steps.

I'm asking you to link me to external documents that support your claims.

Until you provide this, I'll leave it on the opinion pile... which you are entirely welcome to hold, but I am not obliged to refute.

[PointOfViewGun]

That sounds like Europe's problem. Maybe they shouldn't have recognized USSR's regime's legitimacy in 1920s and did more to help White Army in Russian Civil War. "Not my monkey, not my circus".

The approach is noted. It's quite obviously self explanatory that it requires no addressal. Thank you for making it clear.

[Legio_Italica]

But I suspect Putin knows this. And what we're seeing is posturing to do exactly what everyone else is doing. To keep the plate spinning game going until someone else drops one. I also think there might be a touch of personal ego involved. Biden has been all about China for the last year. Putin has never liked 'not being an important global player'. So rather than pairing up with China to make global issues overwhelming for Biden, he's throwing his toys because he felt ignored in his corner.

There’s that angle to consider, yes, but it would make threats like kicking Russia off SWIFT or continuing to link Ukraine with NATO even more nonsensical, if what Putin is really concerned about is irrelevance.

The surest sign of Putin’s resolve to prevent China from becoming the world’s Number 2 is Russia’s recent entrance into East Asia’s imbroglios caused by China, especially in the South China Sea disputes––not to forge an alliance with China to fend off the U.S., but to prevent China’s foray from becoming purely a U.S. vs China dichotomy.

https://www.hoover.org/research/russ...-not-dominance

There is validity to the idea and it features prominently not just in some American circles but also in other environments like the Indian nationalist outlet I linked earlier. Tbh though I don’t quite buy it, if only because I’m suspicious of perspectives that suggest seemingly intractable geopolitical problems are actually solving themselves. The cruise control attitude has done the US few favors in the current era. Consider:

The continued tendency to dismiss Russia as a “has been” or declining power whose bark will always be worse than its bite can lead to the United States overextending itself, making unrealistic commitments, and risking a dangerous escalation with the one country that is still its nuclear peer competitor. The push to expand NATO without taking into account the possibility of Russia reemerging as a major military power was an example of such thinking, which is to be avoided in the future.

At the same time, the scope and scale of the threat that Russia’s global activism poses to U.S. interests will depend largely on how Washington defines those interests in regions where Russia has expanded its footprint over the past decade. Absent a sober assessment of Russia’s gains and tools for power projection, the United States will position itself to needlessly chase after the specter of Russian expansionism in distant corners of the world where major U.S. interests are not at stake.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2021/0...licy-pub-84845

Either because Russia is so weak or because it’s stronger than the West might be used to believing, current policy as an end in itself is misguided for all the above reasons. US adversaries under threat of US financial tools (Russia, China, Iran) have already begun working together to circumvent SWIFT and USD to blunt those effects. Sure, those effects are still quite powerful, but recent history has proven it’s as effective at driving US adversaries into the same corner as it is in disrupting their ability to harm US interests, and those tools will likely become less and less powerful over time as efforts to counteract them build steam.

Given these are the supposed “nuclear” options Biden is putting on the table, a sound US policy means accepting the limits of these options (it’s 2021 not 2001), adjusting to the new reality of great power competition, and giving Russia what it really wants according to either theory: relevance and a place at the table. Leveraging the power dynamic the US currently enjoys to force Moscow to the negotiating table can only work if there’s something to negotiate. So long as Moscow’s alternative to threats of force is quiet submission, Putin has every incentive to avoid the latter and the irrelevance that comes with it.

Administration officials have suggested that the U.S. will press Ukraine to formally cede a measure of autonomy to eastern Ukrainian lands now controlled by Russia-backed separatists who rose up against Kyiv in 2014. An undefined “special status” for those areas was laid out in an ambiguous, European-brokered peace deal in 2015, but it has never taken hold.

And yet

The U.S. and NATO reject Putin’s demands that they guarantee Ukraine won’t be admitted to the Western military alliance.

https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden...4a37fa325f07b5

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Alexander78]

I will try to explain to you very briefly why Moscow takes the Ukrainian issue so seriously. Do you remember the Caribbean crisis? Moscow treats the situation in Ukraine the same way Washington once treated the situation in Cuba. The only difference is that Russians have a lot of relatives in addition to everything in Ukraine.

In turn, I ask you to answer my question: do ordinary people in the West need Ukraine? And are ordinary Americans and Europeans ready to die for Ukraine in the event of a conflict? My second question is not threatening or intimidating, I'm just wondering what you are willing to do for the sake of Ukraine, which you were not interested in a few years ago.

[Heathen Hammer]

I'm asking you to link me to external documents that support your claims.

Strange request for "external documents" from someone who posted literally none in this thread, despite making outrageous claims left right and center.
Serves me right for engaging with your original #44 post in good faith, I guess.

I will try to explain to you very briefly why Moscow takes the Ukrainian issue so seriously. Do you remember the Caribbean crisis? Moscow treats the situation in Ukraine the same way Washington once treated the situation in Cuba. The only difference is that Russians have a lot of relatives in addition to everything in Ukraine.

In turn, I ask you to answer my question: do ordinary people in the West need Ukraine? And are ordinary Americans and Europeans ready to die for Ukraine in the event of a conflict? My second question is not threatening or intimidating, I'm just wondering what you are willing to do for the sake of Ukraine, which you were not interested in a few years ago.

They want to feel good about something in themselves, but don't want to make an effort. I somehow doubt that pro-Ukraine posters would enroll with those sketchy "territorial battalions" or would even just donate.

[komisarek]

My wife is from Kiev (Russian heritage) and I'm Polish. Imagine the heat this topic is generating at home. It's a shame we don't have batteries because I wouldn't have to pay for electricity for the next 10 years

[Legio_Italica]

My wife is from Kiev (Russian heritage) and I'm Polish. Imagine the heat this topic is generating at home. It's a shame we don't have batteries because I wouldn't have to pay for electricity for the next 10 years

I’d be interested to hear more about it.

[komisarek]

I’d be interested to hear more about it.

I try to stay away from the topic but I can give you a summary. She's been very resentful towards the last revolution - it couldn't have happened at a worse time for her, and everything was worse since then. She believes: it was a result of western meddling in Ukrainian politics, to steer it away from Russia. The government which captured power consists of dangerous nationalists. People in the east refused to recognise said government, and Ukrainians moved in, killing anyone who identified themselves as opposition. She thinks the Ukrainians are about to attack Donbass, and Russian army will be there to stop it happening.

In my view Ukraine is 1939's Poland. It has the unfortunate position of being a border between the East and the West. I agree with my wife on a lot of things, but I also think Russia has more to do with the situation than she is willing to admit. For example, I believe that capture of Crimea was because of the Ukrainian hope to develop gas fields in the black sea. I'm convinced that Russia doesn't want to take territory from Ukraine - they just want the republics in the east to get autonomous status within federalised Ukraine, and veto power when it comes to decisions like joining NATO and the EU (which I don't see happening anytime soon anyway). IMO Russia runs on gas - it's all it has (the oligarchs do anyway). Syria was about gas, Azerbaijan and Georgia were about gas... Ukraine, to an extent, is also about gas (and preventing NATO on the border I suppose).

I think that the migrant crises on border with Belarus was designed to create a wedge between Poland and the EU (since the relations are tense), but it did quite the opposite; certainly something I didn't expect. I think Russian government hoped that squabbling EU would then not act together on Ukraine, but alas, that did not work.

That's a quick summary.

[Legio_Italica]

I disagree with the premise that the transatlantic alliance will actually break up to the point where US and Russian interests no longer conflict, and the US finds itself trying to curb European hegemony. However, I do agree that, all things equal, the US and Russia theoretically have more interests in common than against, and if we were ever to put our differences aside and shake hands, we could carve up the world however we wanted and no one could stop us, not even China, just like old times. I don’t want to see Moscow subjugated to Beijing any more than Putin does. And unlike last time, Moscow poses no threat of world communism. Sigh. A girl can dream. I’ve still got my fingers crossed for CANZUK.

[antaeus]

Russia has completed the shakedown and made public their list of demands for diffusing the Ukraine situation... Sorry... I mean phishing for compromises at the literal point of a gun.

https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso...90818/?lang=en

In effect... they want no new NATO memberships for former Soviet states and a rollback of NATO deployments and co-operations and exercises in Eastern Europe in general... no American nukes in Europe etc etc... blah blah... more stuff nobody will ever agree to on principle... blah blah...

The draft paper is quite obviously a diplomatic troll designed for a Russian audience. And it quite obviously dismisses the independence of foreign policy decision making for a bunch of countries and in general treats Eastern Europe as if it was 1898 Africa.

I mean, the document title... lol. Sorry France. Nobody cares about you. Go home.

[Vanoi]

The proposal is ridiculous and shows Russia isn't serious when it comes to diplomacy. Send more weapons to Ukraine and start the process of NATO membership. No need to back down now.

[Legio_Italica]

Lol the endless competition between which side can be more unreasonable for the sake of it. Again I ask, to what end? Gonna have Russia join NATO at some point? There’s no regime change scenario where Russia no longer has fundamental geopolitical interests contingent on domination of eastern Europe, for the same reason there’s no scenario where the US has no interest in dominating Canada and Mexico.

[Sir Adrian]

Russia has been a tumor in this part of Europe for over 2 centuries. There is no possible scenario in which Russia starts behaving like a normal country. The only sensible path for a sustainable future is the dissolution of the Russian Federation and the integration of the more reasonable fragments into NATO and the EU.