Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[PointOfViewGun]

We know for a fact that Russia does not rely solely on Nord Stream to deliver gas. Destroying it is not a means to completely cut off Russian gas exports.

[Septentrionalis]

We know for a fact that Russia does not rely solely on Nord Stream to deliver gas. Destroying it is not a means to completely cut off Russian gas exports.

True, but not really relevant to the matter of teaching Germany a lesson and getting them onboard the war that the alliance is trying to influence here at great cost. If western powers were at work here with that intention, the plan was successful. But of course we do not know.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I'm curious, which advanced military equipment has Germany refused to send to Ukraine?

The Leopard II from the 80s?

Ukraine has conquered 400 modern russian tanks in their Charkow - offensive, they need not more tanks atm.

Two days ago Germany has delivered the first of four brand new air defence system Iris-T to Ukraine, which is more needed against russian air strikes than some old western battle tank.

Military aid delivered so far:

5 armored recovery vehicle type 2*
30 GEPARD anti-aircraft tanks including around 6,000 rounds of anti-aircraft ammunition + 53,000 rounds of anti-aircraft ammunition*
3,000 rounds of 155 mm artillery ammunition (1000 flares/ 2000 smoke)
Artillery detection radar COBRA*
4,000 shots of anti-aircraft tank practice ammunition
54 M113 armored personnel carriers with armament (systems from Denmark, conversion financed by Germany)*
10 Panzerhaubitzen 2.000 including adaptation, training and spare parts (joint project with the Netherlands)
21.8 million rounds of handgun ammunition
10,500 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition
10 anti-drone cannons
14 anti-drone sensors and jammers

280 motor vehicles (trucks, minibuses, SUVs)
MiG-29 spare parts*
30 armored vehicles*
80 pickup*
3 MARS II multiple rocket launchers with ammunition
6 truck vehicle decontamination point HEP 70 including material for decontamination
10 vehicles HMMWV (8x ground radar carrier, 2x jammer/drone carrier)*
7 jammers*
8 mobile ground radars and thermal imaging devices*
4 mobile, remote-controlled and protected demining devices*
8 electronic anti-drone devices*
1 high-frequency device incl. equipment*
7,944 RGW 90 Matador anti-tank handguns*
1 air defense systems IRIS-T SLM*

Military equipment that is to deliver:

16 Zusana* self-propelled howitzers (joint project with Denmark and Norway)
10 bridge systems (heavy and medium bridge systems)*
3 medium girder bridge systems*
90 heavy-duty articulated trucks*
3 air defense systems IRIS-T SLM*
4 Panzerhaubitzen 2000 with ammunition package
2 MARS II multiple rocket launchers with ammunition
50 Dingo All-Protection Transport Vehicles
"Winter Package" (thermal clothing, generator sets, tents and food rations)
12 M1070 Oshkosh* heavy-duty articulated lorries
12 frequency scanners/frequency jammers*
Field hospital (role 2)*
20 rocket launchers 70mm on pick-up trucks with 2,000 rockets*
255 rounds of Vulcano artillery ammunition 155 mm*
10 armored recovery vehicles type 2*
10 (+10 optional) Autonomous Surface Drones*
43 Recon Drones*
10 protected vehicles*
1 vehicle decontamination point
5,032 anti-tank handguns*
200 trucks commercial vehicles*
24 anti-drone systems*
16 armored bridge-laying vehicles BIBER*

Militärische Unterstützungsleistungen für die Ukraine | Bundesregierung

Obviously Germany is supporting Ukraine already heavily.

Russia blowing up NS 1 + 2 makes perfect sense then, as blackmailing hasn't work and it causes panic at the energy stock and let the gas prices rise.

First version of this Biden video appeared in the net a half hour after the first news of NS 1 damaged.

Sounds like an orchestrated FSB propaganda operation for me to divide US and the EU.

And as LOT said, if the CIA did it, it would blow up NS 1 and N2 completely. Not only NS 1. Besides if this would be discovered, it would be a game changer in the public opinion in Europe.

German gas storages are 95 % full, although NS 1 and 2 are down.

[sumskilz]

Israel is allegedly not holding strictly to its proclaimed neutrality:

A senior Ukrainian official has said Israel is providing Ukraine with “basic intelligence” on Iranian suicide drones being deployed by the Russian army, according to a report in The New York Times.

Wednesday’s report, which cited an anonymous Ukrainian source, also said that a private Israeli security firm was giving the Ukrainians satellite imagery of Russian military positions.

Wednesday reportedly saw nine suicide drones shot down by Ukrainian forces, with some 50 shot down throughout the week, with the Ukrainian official adding that the drones have not been as effective as Moscow had hoped because they are “slow” and “easy to target.” The Times noted that it was unable to independently verify the statistics.

This is inline with what was reported a month back:

An Israeli defense contractor is supplying anti-drone systems to Ukraine’s military by way of Poland, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew sister site Zman Yirael reported Monday.

A source in the firm told Zman that the equipment was being sold to Poland to circumvent Israel’s refusal to sell advanced arms to Ukraine.

The company reported to the Defense Ministry that the sale was to Poland and appeared to be claiming not to be aware that Warsaw was acting as intermediary to transfer the weapons to Kyiv, which has been using the Israeli systems to fight against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Defense industry sources clarified that anti-drone systems — which can intercept and disrupt unmanned aerial vehicles — are classified as “advanced defensive technology” and therefore are not approved for sale to Ukraine. However, the Israeli government has appeared uninterested in torpedoing the deal.

There was no immediate comment from the Defense Ministry.

Meanwhile:

Russia on Monday night fired back at Israel for its condemnation of Moscow’s attacks on Ukrainian cities, saying Jerusalem had failed to do the same for Kyiv’s “terrorist attacks on civilians of Donbass” and numerous “murderous” actions.

The statement by Russia’s embassy in Israel came hours after Prime Minister Yair Lapid voiced his “strong” denunciation of the barrage of fatal bombardments across Ukraine.

The Israeli leader said these targeted “the civilian population in Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine.”

In its comments, the embassy asserted that its attacks were “a high-precision strike on the facilities of military control, communications and energy systems of Ukraine.

“It’s worth noticing, that, unfortunately, Israel chose to stand silent during eight years of ongoing Ukrainian terrorist attacks on civilians of Donbass, to turn a blind eye to the recent murderous Ukrainian attack on a refugee convoy in the Kharkov region, monstrous murders of civilians by Neo-nazi Azovs in Kupyansk and other Ukrainian cities, [the] vicious murder of a Russian journalist Darya Dugina, [the] recent Ukrainian terror attack on the Crimean Bridge as well as other numerous horrific and unpunished crimes of the Kyiv regime.”

[PointOfViewGun]

True, but not really relevant to the matter of teaching Germany a lesson and getting them onboard the war that the alliance is trying to influence here at great cost. If western powers were at work here with that intention, the plan was successful. But of course we do not know.

Nord Stream is not the only pipeline route that carried Russian gas to Germany. The price of teaching Germany a lesson there is quite high and I don't see how it would get them on board with the war. I also don't see how the plan was successful in getting Germany on board as Germany's stance did not change. Did they start dispatching large amounts of heavy weaponry to Ukraine? Or have they continued to trickle down to them some weapons as they have been doing since the start of the war?

[conon394]

Just to make it clear, I am not claiming that US or anyone in the west did it. I just find it baffling that next to no one is willing to consider that possibility, given how US said they would do it and in my opinion had much greater interest in doing it than Russia.

But the US had no particular reason to do it. Germany has not been acting like say Orban in Hungary. Its been planning for real difficult energy choices and has been a solid backer of the NATO proxy war. Sure it turns out say the Gepard transfer was easier said than done, some of pact era stuff was past its due date and like everyone else in the NATO world where air power is supposed to be there overwhelmingly turns out Germany can't deliver mid range AA any more than US or UK etc can on a dime. But when you add in financial backing Germany has been solid. So why would the US risk all that German support and across the EU for a mission that could have been detected before or after it was carried out or leave evidence?

--------------


Edit on the lighter side (if one can be had in a war) the Globe and Mail has nice editorial on the negotiation arguments [NOTE I should say I not a fan of Hitler comparisons but when done well they deserve recognition]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opin...ith-mr-hitler/

[Septentrionalis]

I can see that nothing can work as evidence for western involvement, and anything can work as evidence against it. I concede as I have no investment in who blew up those lines. The main thing is that someone did, and I hope that they return to finish their work if the gas starts flowing west and the money starts flowing east again.

[conon394]

I can see that nothing can work as evidence for western involvement, and anything can work as evidence against it. I concede as I have no investment in who blew up those lines. The main thing is that someone did, and I hope that they return to finish their work if the gas starts flowing west and the money starts flowing east again.

I not making the former argument I just saying one clip about Biden out of context does make the US guilty. And there are strong reasons to doubt the US would engage in such a policy when the EU and NATO are more or less with it all on the same page.

[PointOfViewGun]

I can see that nothing can work as evidence for western involvement, and anything can work as evidence against it. I concede as I have no investment in who blew up those lines. The main thing is that someone did, and I hope that they return to finish their work if the gas starts flowing west and the money starts flowing east again.

Evidence is evidence. What we have so far is not and they would classify barely as circumstantial evidence if we push for it. Yet, you seem to have acceptance for only one kid of "evidence" here.

[Septentrionalis]

Evidence is evidence. What we have so far is not and they would classify barely as circumstantial evidence if we push for it. Yet, you seem to have acceptance for only one kid of "evidence" here.

Perhaps you confound evidence with irrefutable evidence on a conceptual level. That is kind of okay, I guess. A lot of people do that. Waiting for your irrefutable evidence that Russia blew up their own pipelines.

[conon394]

Perhaps you confound evidence with irrefutable evidence on a conceptual level. That is kind of okay, I guess. A lot of people do that. Waiting for your irrefutable evidence that Russia blew up their own pipelines.

As anyone claimed irrefutable evidence?

[Septentrionalis]

As anyone claimed irrefutable evidence?

As I said, I concede. Nothing I brought up means anything, and the ad hoc explanation of Russia destroying its own infrastructure to send a signal that they might destroy someone else's infrastructure as well stands.

[PointOfViewGun]

Perhaps you confound evidence with irrefutable evidence on a conceptual level. That is kind of okay, I guess. A lot of people do that. Waiting for your irrefutable evidence that Russia blew up their own pipelines.

Not really. No one talked about irrefutable evidence. Yet, you haven't provided any evidence whatsoever either. Meeting criticism with misrepresentation of what people argue as you decided to do a few posts ago doesn't represent any merit as well. Funnily enough, it ended up being a case of projection of your own approach where it favors the Russian side through applying double standards.

[conon394]

and the ad hoc explanation of Russia destroying its own infrastructure to send a signal that they might destroy someone else's infrastructure as well stands.

Except that is not an argument I have made its rather one of the weakest ones to blame Russia or least to think that was their intent.

[Pontifex Maximus]

We know for a fact that Russia does not rely solely on Nord Stream to deliver gas. Destroying it is not a means to completely cut off Russian gas exports.

What are their other sources for gas? Where is Russia further exporting gas?

[conon394]

Note this is only NG obviously Oil is also exported

note also Power of Siberia delivers to China

https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/es/products-services/natural-gas/lp-gaswire

Also its not clear in the map but Power of Siberia two is almost close to linking to a pipeline that is nearly completed in China








This one is a bit older I think but covers oil and oil terminals

[PointOfViewGun]

What are their other sources for gas? Where is Russia further exporting gas?

This the case for Europe:

[Ludicus]

From the news, Russian forces at the gates of Bahamut

Meanwhile, the British Ministry of Defense said today that Russian troops appeared to be attempting to stabilize along a new front line west of the village of Milove in the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson.

----
We must never stop helping those in need- whether they are Christians or Muslims. But while our politicians are still granting several hundred million euros in financial assistance to Ukraine- we're already here: in this country, with the prices skyrocketing, there are poor people who pretend to be sick to get a free meal at the hospital emergency room. Pobres fingem-se doentes para comer nas urgências

At triage they make general, non-severe complaints and tend to remain under observation until food is delivered, either lunch or dinner. Some people request to be hospitalized.

Although helping others is important, charity begins at home.

Zelensky urged the ICC to set up a war crimes tribunal. Ukraine is yet to become an ICC state party. The question posed by many is: why? After all this time, why has Ukraine not ratified the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court?
Here’s the answer,

Given Ukraine’s reliance on international criminal justice, it is peculiar that it has not taken steps to becoming a fully-fledged state party to the Rome Statute by undertaking the process of ratification.

Indeed. It’s also peculiar that both the USA and Russia - like the devil runs from the cross-have the same behavior. It’s even more peculiar that no one urges Ukraine, the US and Russia to recognize the jurisdiction of the ICC. It seems that the important thing is to have a special court working in our favor when it suits us.

Meanwhile, PACE declares Russia a terrorist regime
It is the first time in the history of the EU that an invading country has been declared a terrorist country. But there are still some rational voices- in this case in the USA, Why the U.S. ShouldNot Designate Russia as a State Sponsor of Terrorism

The concern ... is that [this designation] would establish a precedent and expose the U.S. and its partners to similar kinds of designations by adversaries in the future.

---
It has long been known that “The Rand Corporation is the paramilitary academy of United States strategic thinking” (sic) The Rand Corporation and Our Policy Makers - The Atlantic
It is worth mentioning again. Here’s the US strategy outlined by the Rand Corporation before the war. Overextending and Unbalancing Russia - RAND Corporation

A short summary.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

RAND researchers conducted a qualitative assessment of “cost-imposing options” that could unbalance and overextend Russia. The work builds on the concept of long-term strategic competition developed during the Cold War.
Expanding U.S. energy production would stress Russia’s economy, potentially constraining its government budget and, by extension, its defense spending.
Imposing deeper trade and financial sanctions would also likely degrade the Russian economy,
Increasing Europe’s ability to import gas from suppliers other than Russia could economically extend Russia.
Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability. But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia.

That is exactly what is happening now, it's not a coincidence.

It is interesting to note that in his book “The Grand Chessboard-American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives”, Brzezinski advises the US government to reshape Europe according to the US strategic imperatives. Let me quote,

How the US both manipulates and accommodates the principal geostrategic players on the Eurasian chessboard and how it manages Eurasia's key geopolitical pivots will be critical to the longevity and stability of America's global primacy.
It follows that a wider Europe and an enlarged NATO will serve well both the short-term and the longer-term goals of U.S. policy. A larger Europe will expand the range of American influence—and, through the admission of new Central European members, also increase in the European councils the number of states with a pro American proclivity—without simultaneously creating a Europe politically so integrated that it could soon challenge the United States on geopolitical matters of high importance to America elsewhere, particularly in the Middle East”.

The domestication of Europe is a harsh term, but appropriate for a vassal in the making. Bruno Maçães, European politician, writes POLITICO’s Geopolitical Union column. One year ago, B.M. seemed resigned to the idea of accepting the US as the benign Master of Europe, POLITICO

(…) former U.S. Secretary of State and old transatlantic fox Henry Kissinger warned of in a prescient essay: What if Europe loses its independence not to Moscow or Beijing, but to Washington? In this scenario, the transatlantic community falls apart, but the U.S. remains in Europe as a sort of foreign power.
Some believe this may already be starting to play out. The political philosopher and historian Luuk van Middelaar concluded a recent lecture in Paris with the words: “In our relations with America, we may be moving from the status of partners to that of vassals”. Vimont fears “the concept of Europe as a vassal is more and more in the open.”
In her last months in office, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has been seemingly consumed by this question of European weakness and seems increasingly committed to making it a farewell warning to her fellow leaders.
With this type of defeatism taking over, the EU should just resign itself to its fate of becoming the political and economic dependent of a new American empire. And if it came down to that, I would join those timorous diplomats in choosing the American master over the available alternatives.

Trump is gone (for now) but the EU no longer counts in the world power strategy and may enter a process of great social and political turmoil that could replicate in a larger version the breakup of Yugoslavia. On a side note: as we know, Iraq war was illegal and breached the UN charter. Was the UN made irrelevant by the Iraq war? Was the UN made irrelevant by the U.N.G.A resolutions on Israel? Or when the U.N.G.A voted overwhelmingly to condemn the long-standing U.S. blockade of Cuba for the 29th time? Now that UN approval seems to be important, does it become relevant again? Ukraine war: UN General Assembly condemns Russia

It’s not appropriate to have double standards. Not long ago, Brookings pondered this question Is the UN a friend or foe? - Brookings Institution
How long have I been hearing that the UN is a leftist, world's largest and best organized anti-Israel, Jew hating organization on the planet?
--
Soon, Poland may play the role of a Trojan horse and initiate the European breakup. Twenty years ago, referring to the Iraq war, The Economist wrote Is Poland America's donkey or could it become NATO's horse?

The Poles would like the UN to pass a new Iraqi resolution to bless the operation but would probably go in without one—so long as America and others agree to pay.

They are same ones who now intend to have nuclear weapons at home. Poland suggests hosting US nuclear weapons

To conclude, in my opinion, Europe needs an independent Europe, not a submissive Europe. The invasion of Ukraine cannot be the pretext to justify the continuation of this dependency. Although the Baltic States and Poland are very satisfied with the current situation.
​2022 [FR] L'insoutenable simplicité de l'équation de la défense européenne
2021 [FR] L'Autonomie stratégique, cet obscur objet du désir

Ursula's constantly repeated claims that Europe is now stronger are misleading. For Europe today, it is only a matter of minimizing the damage in the future - if we do not become completely powerless to do so.
---
Bruno de Carvalho, war reporter, writes in his farewell to Donbass,

March was 15 kilos ago. One life. The Russian border guards don't seem to believe that I am the same guy that appears in my passport photo. They take me into a room with a tape measure on the wall and walk back and forth. I regret that I went to get my hair cut a few days before I left Donetsk. The hairdressers were laughing at the idea of having a foreigner as if it was an exotic event in a city at war. Through the mirror, beyond the excess of cut hair, I could see the store window covered by wooden boards. Months before, several rockets launched by Ukrainian artillery had hit a supermarket, an elementary school, a butcher shop, and this hairdresser.
For a month and a half, I walked around in the same boots and the same pants. It sounds absurd, but when I arrived in the Donbass the idea was to stay only one week. I ended up staying seven months with a two-week break in between.
Death has become a habit since I arrived at the end of March, so long ago it seems like years. War sucks. Especially for those who are forced to live it. For me, it was a choice, and so I never complained.
I was one of the Western reporters with more time in the field. I worked for Público, for CNN Portugal, for CNN International, for Nòs (Galicia), for Gara (Basque Country), and for A Voz do Operário. In all, about a hundred reports, chronicles, and direct reports.
While in Portugal there were those who waited for the slightest flaw to try to discredit my work, I was the most scrutinized Portuguese journalist. Fortunately, on this walk, thousands walked with me, and I felt the warmth of solidarity that can always do more than hatred”

I recommend reading his latest war chronicle. Use google translate Crônica desde o Donbass: Ekaterina, guerrilheira de Odessa como os seus avós
Chronicle from the Donbass: Ekaterina, Odessa's guerrilla like her grandparents
More here, CNN Portugal

[conon394]

From the news, Russian forces at the gates of Bahamut

Wow Russia has spend months battering away for a few 100 meters.

You might consider Russia in building trenches behind Popasna 30 Km or so to the east of Bahama. Which does not seem like a vote confidence for holding their gain of inches toward Bahama

It has long been known that “The Rand Corporation is the paramilitary academy of United States strategic thinking” (sic) The Rand Corporation and Our Policy Makers - The Atlantic

Too bad for Putin he lacked an independent think tank to point out his special military operation was a likely fiasco. Also not sure I see the value in a slightly hystical and a biased story from the mid 60s

That is exactly what is happening now, it's not a coincidence.

Err not its the US and its allies responding to a Russian war of choice. Enough with nobody has agency but the US.

Was the UN made irrelevant by the U.N.G.A resolutions on Israel? Or when the U.N.G.A voted overwhelmingly to condemn the long-standing U.S. blockade of Cuba for the 29th time? Now that UN approval seems to be important, does it become relevant again? Ukraine war: UN General Assembly condemns Russia

No it remains more or less irrelevant as it always has.

Soon, Poland may play the role of a Trojan horse and initiate the European breakup. Twenty years ago, referring to the Iraq war, The Economist wrote Is Poland America's donkey or could it become NATO's horse?

I got no ideal what this link is suppose get at.

To conclude, in my opinion, Europe needs an independent Europe, not a submissive Europe. The invasion of Ukraine cannot be the pretext to justify the continuation of this dependency. Although the Baltic States and Poland are very satisfied with the current situation.

Nobody is really stopping that but Europe itself.

--------------------


Also @Pontifex Maximus

https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/...al-gas-exports

Pretty good overview on Russian Options. China is farther away in terms of pipelines than I thought. Its LNG capacity would seem to smallish now and it bet big on the arctic and arctic ice braking tankers with it can seem to actually build while cut from European/US tech.

[Alastor]

To conclude, in my opinion, Europe needs an independent Europe, not a submissive Europe. The invasion of Ukraine cannot be the pretext to justify the continuation of this dependency. Although the Baltic States and Poland are very satisfied with the current situation.
​

Indeed, part of the reason why I'm so pissed with Poland, the Baltics aka the virulently anti-Russia crowd. They are not in it for the EU, but for themselves and they are happy to sacrifice the EU to the US to get their way.

Unfortunately, as I wrote earlier, the big loser from this whole story (aside from Ukraine obviously) is the EU.