Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Pontifex Maximus]

We can have peace after Russia surrenders its nuclear weapons. Yep, the same kind of deal Romans offered Carthaginians.

As if Carthage would ever have surrendered its nuclear arsenal. This is the problem. Brinksman libs are convinced Putin (a mad man) won't do (mad) things. It won't feel great being right as we bask in the radioactive glow of a mushroom cloud, and I will find little solace in the fact a geriatric KGB mad man was disallowed annexing some country I don't care about into his irrelevant kleptocracy.

[Sar1n]

Fuel train on Kerch bridge hit, part of the road has collapsed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578599931363065857
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578604875629617153

Whether it was sabotage or missile/drone attack, it's quite impressive feat.

Happy birthday, Vlad. Here are your fireworks.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

The Kerch bridge collapsing and being on fire is, like every single other event during this war, according to plan. It is in fact a brilliant move to boost tourism to the region, as the bridge has been refitted to not lead to the uninteresting Crimea peninsula, but instead the bridge will now lead straight to the Moskva, Russia's famous flagship turned submarine.

[Vanoi]

This was a masterful act of sabotage. Ukrainians parked a truck bomb on the bridge and waited for fuel train to pass by before exploding.

Russia will find it incredibly hard to supply it's forces in Southern Ukraine and Crimea. Supplies will have to come now via Dontesk or by boat.

[Mithradates]

The "Special Bridge Maintenance Operation" is going according to the plan!

[conon394]

I beginning to think the Russians are not good at modern warfare. Although would seem to be a FSB failure - who is going trip down the stairs/window for this one MoD or FSB leadership. Also I assume Russia will follow up with missiles on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure now.

[swabian]

Ludicus, you're completely lost. I have rarely ever seen someone being so lost and all over the place to relativize this atrocious Russian campaign. I don't know what to make of it.

You remind me of one of those middle aged moms when I was a kid who separated the bullies and their victims only to afterwards blame everyone equally for daring to having been involved in conflict, whether anyone had a choice or not. You're not a die hard russophile communist, I think. Your motives clearly lie in undifferentiatedly blaming the US for everything, even though it's clear who the uniquely guilty party is. It's messed up. You're carried away by rationalization after rationalization, nobody can even follow you anymore.

[AqD]

As if Carthage would ever have surrendered its nuclear arsenal. This is the problem. Brinksman libs are convinced Putin (a mad man) won't do (mad) things. It won't feel great being right as we bask in the radioactive glow of a mushroom cloud, and I will find little solace in the fact a geriatric KGB mad man was disallowed annexing some country I don't care about into his irrelevant kleptocracy.

Of course he will do mad things. Why do you think he keeps mobilizing more of useless manpower? He will not back down. He cannot back down.

We need to show Russians that we're willing to do whatever it takes, and force them to choose whether they want to live, or not.

I doubt most of their nukes even work. It's a chance we should have taken long ago.

I don't care about into his irrelevant kleptocracy.

You're free to withdraw. Europe shall not. And the war will be brought to you either way since Putin believes we're all US puppets.

[swabian]

You're free to withdraw. Europe shall not. And the war will be brought to you either way since Putin believes we're all US puppets.

The US support for Ukraine is really crucial.



Khodorkovsky describes here that Putin's leadership actually suffer from all the problems an early dictatorship could possibly have. He's not competent to lead and will fail eventually, I would agree. But Russia is still not easy to fight and the US provide not only weapons and ammunition, but also excellent surveillance and intelligence. It's a matter of time, I think, but only because of US support and only if it is kept up at the current level or enhanced.

There will be a time when this has to be normalized and calmed down and a divided Western position would be a problem then, because Russia will need a chance to rearrange itself and not remain cornered. They will have to be re-introduced to normal diplomacy and an economical network. I think to forever shut them out because they have done this is absolutely the wrong way to go. Only US diplomacy could fix this and guide this properly mid term and long term. The EU simply cannot act as its own face in an important affair like that, they are completely at odds with each other and there is no real leadership besides bureaucratic structures.

[swabian]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/pentagon-...141150716.html

Putin can sabre rattle all he wants but there is no indication that Putin is planning to use nuclear
weapons in Ukraine.

Actually he doesn't need any leg up to escalate the war to that level. Every Western interference at this point could be rationalized as an entry point to a nuclear level of escalation infront of his fanboys.

They would of course, in this case, resort to small bombs (tactical), but it doesn't help, because Ukraine is huge and there are no choke points building up (Ukrainian troops amassing at one location significantly, where nukes can do something). As soon as there are building up choke points, I think they would likely do one single attack with a <150kT weapon, hoping that would demoralize Ukraine and make Putin's childish point.

If they would use more, they would risk to suffer from their own fallout or risk provoking neutrals with it. But everything points to this being an actual possibility. They are certainly not above harming their own troops or country.

What would happen then? The Western nations would sharpen up their diplomacy immensly, but Putin's trajectory is already irreversible. Can he benefit in any way in Russia? Probably not.

I think he's eager to be the first rectum in history to do that. Only to "prove" the point that he's not threatening in vain, because "serious KGB officer is serious". I think he would retreat after that, but he's likely to to do that and we need to be aware of that danger.

[conon394]

I think he's eager to be the first rectum in history to do that. Only to "prove" the point that he's not threatening in vain, because "serious KGB officer is serious". I think he would retreat after that, but he's likely to to do that and we need to be aware of that danger.

I not so sure he going to risk it. It really depends on if believes Biden is will to play the same escalate and deescalate game. If thinks NATO will at minimum deliver a massive swift attack on all Russian military assets in and around Ukraine and than stand back. He gets nothing out of a tactical nuclear strike. Really his best strategy is to toss the cannon fodder in hold what he can and still hope winter, inflation etc crack resolve on the part of NATO. And also that maybe by spring he can pull together new actually trained formations so that Europe looks a second bad winter.

[Holger Danske]

Pyrrhic victory would not be a loss to Putin as Russian soldiers are disposable to him.

Sanctions are not going to stop after their defeat or victory. Oil profits are not going to be affected in the long run since it'd just change buyers and sellers. Victory or not the future of Russia has already been decided.

But given the recent performance, it looks like their command structure has collapsed and there is no one left to train soldiers. Why worry about 300,000 or one million of sobbing slaves forced to war? One million bullets are not much.

Why aren't we talking about nukes? It's a very viable option for Putin to use tactical nukes, to force NATO's hand and give himself a perfect excuse to end the war with his crown intact, even at the cost of hundreds of thousands of Russian lives and the entire fleet. In fact he does not have any other option left.

Exactly. Even if Russia somehow was able to militarily defeat and occupy all of Ukraine in the fall (too many variables that has to go different here to start with) it would very likely face a partisan war that would dwarf both Afghanistan wars, and Iraq, combined.

[conon394]

Exactly. Even if Russia somehow was able to militarily defeat and occupy all of Ukraine in the fall (too many variables that has to go different here to start with) it would very likely face a partisan war that would dwarf both Afghanistan wars, and Iraq, combined.

Although theoretically had Russia executed its military and decapitation strategy effectively it would have had something the US did not. That being intent to stay. Thus was always undermined in A-stan and Iraq because the locals knew the US was going maybe not today or tomorrow but it was leaving. A lighting campaign combined with meh from the EU and NATO similar to Georgia and I think Iraq and A-stan are bad comparisons.

[conon394]

As if Carthage would ever have surrendered its nuclear arsenal. This is the problem. Brinksman libs are convinced Putin (a mad man) won't do (mad) things. It won't feel great being right as we bask in the radioactive glow of a mushroom cloud, and I will find little solace in the fact a geriatric KGB mad man was disallowed annexing some country I don't care about into his irrelevant kleptocracy.

You should care I for one don't like ideal of Putin having control of most of the worlds supply of Noble gas (hello chip production and scientific equipment production) to add to China's near monopoly on rare earth production and the fact Taiwan's status as the world premiere supplier of chips kinds makes war China inevitable if they invade... Nope I rather prefer a Ukraine in at least the EU and not in Putin's orbit. Also you got the food and fertilizer aspect as well.

Give me a bi partisan 25 year industrial policy plan to solve those issues and maybe you can convince me about the irrelevancy of Ukraine or Taiwan

[AqD]

Give me a bi partisan 25 year industrial policy plan to solve those issues and maybe you can convince me about the irrelevancy of Ukraine or Taiwan

It'd still be a danger to Europe. We're not safe until Putin and all his far-right supporters are sent to Siberia.

[Pontifex Maximus]

Thank God we've managed to lurch even further into the possibility of nuclear Armageddon. We might all die agonizing deaths, but at least we will do so in the knowledge that we had the moral high ground. We will freeze, starve, and die in a nuclear holocaust to own Putin and the evil Russians.

[swabian]

delete

[swabian]

This is . I mean absoulte and utter garbage.

[Septentrionalis]

God forbid there should be any pursuit for peace, right? Europe must freeze and starve for Ukraine and if necessary the whole west must tolerate nuclear war for Ukraine, because "It Is The Right Thing To Do" tm.

I am glad that American civilian and military leaders do not share that strange belief that this is about Ukraine. Because it is not. This is about who calls the shots in this world and what the world will be like for the generations to come. If we start bending a knee in front of every single dictatorship to avoid getting hurt, they will take over. And, eventually, they will come knocking on America's door, too.

The evil must be fought where ever it tries to exert itself. This time it happens to be in Ukraine. We are not supplying Ukraine only because we like Ukraine so much, but because we cannot allow countries like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea to start dictating matters in this world. The American experts on global politics probably understand that America cannot safely and happily exist as the sole democracy left on Earth, and they are recommending taking action for the long-term interest of the western world and the benefit of future Americans within it.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Thank God we've managed to lurch even further into the possibility of nuclear Armageddon. We might all die agonizing deaths, but at least we will do so in the knowledge that we had the moral high ground. We will freeze, starve, and die in a nuclear holocaust to own Putin and the evil Russians.

Would you rather stop them in Ukraine, or wait until they're in Berlin? Paris? On American soil?