Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Sar1n]

And deprive themselves of their own leverage in the process? That's some 4D chess move you are describing there.

That leverage is gone already. The only scenario that would see some return to Nord Stream involves immediate removal of Putin from power. If you want to know what Russia gains from this, look at what it did for gas prices in Germany.

[Alastor]

That leverage was anything but gone. I even shared an article earlier describing how the EU is a few cold weeks away from big trouble. As far as gas prices in Germany go... well if there was no leverage and Germany is energy secure why does this incident matter? if the prices are rising, then Germany is not secure.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Gas prices are objects of speculation. Every good news will let them fall, every bad news will let them rise. Not necessarily related to reality.

[Alastor]

Gas prices are objects of speculation. Every good news will let them fall, every bad news will let them rise.

Of course. Which is utterly moronic and a big source of the current instability. But that doesn't change the earlier argument. The idea that Russia is responsible for torpedoing their own pipelines, including the one they were trying hard to get opened, the one Biden pledged to kill, is still absurd. The idea that Russia's leverage over Germany when it comes to gas had evaporated is also wrong. Just look at all the ifs here: https://www.dw.com/en/forget-putin-e...ter/a-63215617

[Vanoi]

Not one source has mentioned these blasts being intentional. The pipeline blasts could have been accidents.

[Cyclops]

Geez remember when this war was about...Nazis or laboratories or something? Now its about terrorism against god-fearing oligarchs and their money.

Sorry should have put in a trigger warning, remember when this "special operation" was about ...what was it, the Ukrainians detonating their own reactors? And secret bunkers full of frozen corpses?

I have to say Putin has proved himself beyond doubt to be a useless scumbag brigand. I want the best for our Russian friends and their supporters, perhaps its time for a peaceful transition of power by the robust Russian democratic process. Who it the leader of the opposition?

Not one source has mentioned these blasts being intentional. The pipeline blasts could have been accidents.

Given Russia's absolute clownshoes performance in this war I'd say skill issue would be the most likely explanation for the pipelines blowing up.

That said Putin has made some staggering strategic blunders too, so self harm like this is not beyond the realms of possibility.

The third option, muh alphabets, is definitely on the table too. No doubt the CIA are enjoying a fine old time not seen since they sent poisoned cigars to Cuba.

Russia has responded by giving Edward Snowden Russian citizenship. Cruel and unusual.

[Ludicus]

Who indeed...

It's Russia, Alastor. It's Russia sabotaging itself (even losing money) to make sure that Europe doesn't get the gas it needs now that winter is approaching. They could simply close the Nordstream 1, but it's better to destroy the pipelines. This is how the Russian machiavellian mindset works.
And we know that because Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, said on Twitter: “‘Gas leak’ from NS-1 is nothing more than a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression towards the EU. Russia wants to destabilise the economic situation in Europe "

Podolyak reasoning is is perfectly understandable and logical.

[conon394]

@Ludicus

So I'm the ignore list you don't want to address the silly draft articles you posted? Well the first is silly the second serious but still sorta un moored from us history in general.

nor have you coherently suggested how Ukraine gives up declares neutrality and accepts all Russian land annexation and gets useful security guarantees from some country not named the US with NATO.

[fkizz]

Geez remember when this war was about...Nazis or laboratories or something? Now its about terrorism against god-fearing oligarchs and their money.

Sorry should have put in a trigger warning, remember when this "special operation" was about ...what was it, the Ukrainians detonating their own reactors? And secret bunkers full of frozen corpses?

Remember when this was a "special operation" instead of a "partial mobilization" with some say to have only precedents in 1812 and 1941. Except Russia was defending in those 2 occasions.

On Pipelines, considering both sides, given I don't factually know who did it. (there are theories/guesses that make more sense than others, but objectively speaking, it's unknown)

1.If it was from the West (we don't know), couldn't have happened without fear felt in Eastern Europe/Baltics over Russia.
2.If it was Russia (we don't know), could be a move for Putin to transfer power from the Gas big players to himself, now that he sees his political situation more unstable.
3.If it was a more neutral situation (we don't know) Technical upkeep was ignored until critical mass because pipelines were seen as a sunk investment.

Either way I'm just going to wait this one. Too easy to just make very different theories by now.

[tgoodenow]

Not one source has mentioned these blasts being intentional. The pipeline blasts could have been accidents.

It is "very clear from the seismic record that these are blasts," Björn Lund‬, director of the Swedish National Seismic Network at Uppsala University told NPR in a phone interview. "These are not earthquakes; they are not landslides underwater."

...

Lund says both the Swedish network and the Danish Seismic Network picked up the explosions on Monday. The first blast occurred at 2:03 a.m. Swedish time, and a second, larger explosion occurred at 7:04 p.m. "Preliminary estimates would say that this is at least equivalent to 100 kilograms of dynamite," he says.

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/27/11254...l-gas-sabotage

[Pinarius]

Not one source has mentioned these blasts being intentional. The pipeline blasts could have been accidents.

This is from Februar 7 2022:

Pres. Biden: "If Russia invades...then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it."

Reporter: "But how will you do that, exactly, since...the project is in Germany's control?"

Biden: "I promise you, we will be able to do that." http://abcn.ws/3B5SScx

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1490792461979078662

[Papay]

Sigh... Your arguments are devoid of any intelligent thought. There are worlds apart between flooding Ukraine with weapons and not providing any aid. Why waste time with such idiotic arguments? What do you think you accomplish with it?

The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine (cnbc.com)

US and Europe are running out of weapons to give to Ukraine. Of course this doesnt mean they dont have weapons but all the extra weapons that they could give are finishing. They must raise production in order to keep up with the pace of the war. This shows the staggering amount of weapons the west has given to Ukraine. Feel free to claim that its all rubbish and that i dont know what i am talking about

[Ludicus]

Biden said that. There are precedents, which are not to be disregarded
Angela Merkel hits out at US sanctions on Nord Stream 2 ...
And even before that, in 2017.Germany′s Angela Merkel slams planned US sanctions ... - DW

But Biden is always saying a lot of things, making constant threats, which are then denied by the US state department, as in the case of Formosa, or in other cases.
It could be a neuropsychological change caused by brain senescence, which makes many elderly people particularly impulsive and irritable.I give the US the benefit of doubt.
----
For the United States and its most European loyal allies, Poland and the Baltic States, Germany and France are the scapegoats of the war in Ukraine,

Baltic States Wanted German Tanks in Ukraine Yesterday

In the eyes of Berlin’s NATO allies in Eastern Europe, particularly the countries that border Russia, Germany, the economic and political power center of Europe, isn’t doing nearly enough…The same questions Berlin faces are also being directed at France.
Emily Haber, Germany’s ambassador to the United States, responded to recent criticism over the pace of the country’s military aid to Ukraine in a Twitter thread: “No other nation has so far provided Ukraine with Western-made battle tanks. This is not a trivial detail,” she wrote.

The German Greens and Ursula may wear yellow and blue every day, but they will not escape harsh criticism from the US,
John R. Deni is a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute Putin is mobilizing. Germany and France are unlikely to step up

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent decision to partially mobilize Russian reservists represents a significant escalation in his war against Ukraine.

Over the coming weeks and months, this could inject as many as 300,000 additional Russian troops into the Kremlin’s war effort — and just as Ukraine has achieved some battlefield success. Increased Western assistance is now vital for Kyiv to leverage and expand its gains and build up defensive positions, before additional Russian forces enter the fight.

The Franco-German engine has powered the European Union for over 70 years. Today, however, that engine has stalled... The Continent’s most powerful economy and its most powerful military are failing to meet the moment.

(…) the actions of Europe’s political dynamic duo have failed to match their own rhetoric.

Germany’s sheer unwillingness to send heavy armored forces — like tanks and infantry fighting vehicles — has prompted criticism…
Meanwhile, France has been willfully curtailing its assistance in hopes of playing the role of neutral arbiter when the shooting stops. Macron irreparably damaged his claim to European leadership when he called on Ukraine to avoid humiliating Putin,

Clearly, these leading European countries have both failed to rise to the occasion

Residual illusions of French grandeur lie at the heart of Macron’s efforts to walk an elusive middle ground between the West and Russia

Unfortunately, as this French pursuit of greatness continues to endure and 50 years of German foreign policy won’t be changed overnight, neither of these European powers is likely to play a leading role in helping Ukraine in the short run.

there are still many reasons to think Russia is far from being knocked out of the conflict…For one thing, Ukraine’s progress in the south — where it had begun shifting resources from Kharkiv — remains slow and arduous. Additionally, Moscow retains the ability to conduct precision long-range strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. Most importantly, though, Russia still holds both qualitative and quantitative military advantages over Ukraine in terms of both manpower and equipment.

For all these reasons — especially given Putin’s partial mobilization — the war will most likely continue to unfold over the coming months, if not years.

The United States, the U.K., Poland, and other allies are all currently providing substantial training, equipment, expertise and intelligence.

both France and Germany have an opportunity to do so as well — but whether and when they will fulfill their potential remains to be seen.

In the struggle for world hegemony, the US wants a strong Ukraine, but not a Germany or France that defends its national interests. I won't go so far as to say that they want the deindustrialization of Germany, and turn it into an agricultural country, as was proposed at the end of World War II, but the US is not in love with the two economic engines of Europe.

[conon394]

I won't go so far as to say that they want the deindustrialization of Germany, and turn it into an agricultural country, as was proposed at the end of World War II, but the US is not in love with the two economic engines of Europe.

And the US is de industrializing how because of the US again?

but not a Germany or France that defends its national interests

So Germany should defend its national interests

And even before that, in 2017.Germany′s Angela Merkel slams planned US sanctions ... - DW

But you back Merkle here with this link suggusting the US not do the same but defere to German intrests. Seems like the US was laready doing that by leting Germany be nato and reap the post cold war peace dividend the US did not.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

In retrospective Merkel was too blue-eyed towards Putin's Russia with the gas contracts, but could someone explain to me why Russia is the good guy by making Germany and many other european countries gas addictives, which is in the end russian hegemony with economic means? Why is this not bad while this is obviously only in Russia's agenda? Is only US with agenda bad?

[conon394]

In retrospective Merkel was too blue-eyed towards Putin's Russia with the gas contracts, but could someone explain to me why Russia is the good guy by making Germany and many other european countries gas addictives, which is in the end russian hegemony with economic means? Why is this not bad while this is obviously only in Russia's agenda? Is only US with agenda bad?

Well I can't speak for Ludicus who seems v2.0 of Tankie. The perceived wisdom is that somehow German (or European) industry was dependent on cheap gas since it provided a competitive advantage. However this is/was marginal at best internal prices in the US for natural gas particularity in the period where fracking was booming and LGN export had not yet really grown gave the US even lower prices for NG. Yet its is chemical and manufacturing sectors did not suddenly boom out of some input advantage. Also I am pretty sure the UK had cheap gas over the last 30 years and one did not see mass re industrialization in Liverpool or Manchester.

In retrospective Merkel was too blue-eyed towards Putin's Russia with the gas contracts

And gave into the panic after Fukushima on Nuclear power and actual bridge energy source. NG is really all that great when you remember to add in the greenhouse gas emissions involved in the product and not just the burning (be that in the US or Russia or Australia etc)

Why is this not bad while this is obviously only in Russia's agenda? Is only US with agenda bad?

Well obviously and Russia is always a victim.

[Pinarius]

"Thank you, USA." said Radosław Sikorski, a Polish politician, who is a Member of European Parliament. He was also a former Minister of Foreign Affairs.
https://twitter.com/radeksikorski/st...00653724966915

This is from June:

BALTIC SEA — A significant focus of BALTOPS every year is the demonstration of NATO mine hunting capabilities, and this year the U.S. Navy continues to use the exercise as an opportunity to test emerging technology, U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa Public Affairs said June 14.

In support of BALTOPS, U.S. Navy 6th Fleet partnered with U.S. Navy research and warfare centers to bring the latest advancements in unmanned underwater vehicle mine hunting technology to the Baltic Sea to demonstrate the vehicle’s effectiveness in operational scenarios.

Experimentation was conducted off the coast of Bornholm, Denmark, with participants from Naval Information Warfare Center Pacific, Naval Undersea Warfare Center Newport, and Mine Warfare Readiness and Effectiveness Measuring all under the direction of U.S. 6th Fleet Task Force 68.

more at: https://seapowermagazine.org/baltops...ew-technology/

[PointOfViewGun]

The U.S. and Europe are running out of weapons to send to Ukraine (cnbc.com)

US and Europe are running out of weapons to give to Ukraine. Of course this doesnt mean they dont have weapons but all the extra weapons that they could give are finishing. They must raise production in order to keep up with the pace of the war. This shows the staggering amount of weapons the west has given to Ukraine. Feel free to claim that its all rubbish and that i dont know what i am talking about

Sigh... You didn't read that article yourself, didn't you? The weapons and ammo they're giving to Ukraine are spare units, not their own. None of that supports your idea that they are flooding Ukraine with weapons. There is a reason why you failed to explain to us how what they promised to send differ from what they actually send.

[Ludicus]

Polish MEP Radoslaw Sikorski of the EPP political group -, on Tuesday thanked the United States for allegedly causing damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines. Radek Sikorski MEP on Twitter: "Thank you, USA.

And he adds, “All Ukrainian and Baltic Sea states have opposed Nordstream's construction for 20 years. Now $20 billion of scrap metal lies at the bottom of the sea”

Meanwhile Europe vows response to suspected abotage of two Russian gas pipelines.

In a statement on behalf of all 27 members, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said “Any deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure is utterly unacceptable and will be met with a robust and united response.”

I think Sikorski is a troll. Anyway, probably what the Polish government wishes had happened.

Edit.Two hours ago,
Russia asks US President Joe Biden point-blank if America Sabotaged Nord Stream

On February 7, 2022, Joe Biden threatened to end #NordStream.
@POTUS must give a definitive answer whether the United States acted on its threat on September 25 and 26, 2022!

--

The perceived wisdom is that somehow German (or European) industry was dependent on cheap gas since it provided a competitive advantage. .

So it seems.
Is the energy crisis the final nail in Germany′s export ... - DW

Gas games

While Nölke argues that Germany's export exposure risk has been apparent for years, one of the latest and most pressing threats is the crisis around Russian energy, particularly gas.
Europe's largest economy has been one of the most dependent on Russian energy for decades, but the war has forced a colossal rethink. With the EU rushing to cut back on imports of Russian energy and Russia itself cutting the amount it supplies, many large exporting industries in Germany are wondering how they can survive without the relatively cheap energy they have relied upon for so long.
A survey of 3,500 companies recently carried out by Germany's Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) found that 16% were either scaling back production or partially discontinuing business operations due to rising energy prices.
"These are alarming figures," said DIHK President Peter Adrian. "They show how permanently high energy prices are a burden."
The warnings have been getting more and more dire. Commerzbank, one of the biggest German corporate lenders, said in August that the gas crisis could lead to a "severe recession", comparing the consequences to the global financial crisis in 2008.

Also, reread the post #5416

Factbox: Could the U.S. ship more LNG to Europe? - Reuters

"But that EIA outlook was before the Freeport LNG plant in Texas shut on June 8. Freeport LNG estimated the plant, which was consuming about 2 bcfd of gas before it shut, could resume operations by October. Some analysts, however, think the outage will last longer.
So far in 2022, the United States exported about 11.0 bcfd of gas as LNG with 7.5 bcfd, or 68%, going to Europe - where prices have averaged $33 per mmBtu versus $29 in Asia"

More US gas may explode prices in Europe, experts warn

"If there is going to be competition with Asia, prices could be really crazy,"

US natural gas prices surge - Financial Times.

"with prices hitting the highest in more than a decade and Europe and Asia ready to pay more to import American supplies… “It’s as simple as that.”
The idea that LNG exports are boosting U.S. prices has now become something close to conventional wisdom among energy analysts"

This has nothing to do with prices varying according to good and bad news.

[AqD]

That leverage is gone already. The only scenario that would see some return to Nord Stream involves immediate removal of Putin from power. If you want to know what Russia gains from this, look at what it did for gas prices in Germany.

We should sabotage Russian gas sent elsewhere.

If we cannot buy their gas, no-one else can. Also they need the west for equipment repairs.


EU has been far too passive. Against Putin no laws or morality should apply.