Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Sir Adrian]

@Sir Adrian

Historically, I would agree that Ukrainian record of treating minorities, Jews especially, isn't something to be proud of. However, how do the current "Nazis are ruling Ukraine" slogans deal with the fact that president Zelensky is Jewish.
Wouldn't you agree there's more to it?

Your point becomes moot when the Ukrainian National Guard includes these guys , when Svoboda was part of the government until barely 6 years ago, and would still be part of the government if not for daddy Putin feeding their electorate to the anti russian far right group, when the Ukrainian government is actively maintaining monuments to SS collaborators and war criminals , when state sanctioned historians defend and honor said collaborators and when you have government officials honoring the birth Stepan Bandera in 2019

PS: Zelensky may be a jew but he is the right kind of jew, a Ukrainian jew, and one who accelerated the forced assimilation policy at that.

[Cyclops]

Feeling horrible about this. Did a Russian spokesman really say "Russia never attacks anyone?" holy moly. I tend to personalise these things and there's a lovely Ukrainian family at my boy's school, I'd hate for their family back home (whether Russian, Ukrainian or other ethnic identity) to get blown up. I guess Putin and Biden need some people to die.

...In terms of "who was here first"...

As a hairy stout person with a developed occipital bun and huge cranial dimensions I am very happy to stand as a representative for the original Neanderthal population's claims to the entire extra-African Anthroposphere. H. Erectus GTFO with those phony claims though, #NoOchreNoHuman.

[swabian]

Did he say "Extra-African Anthroposophere"?

This inspires me for a jolly rant about the strong forehead of the australopithecus afarensis.

[PointOfViewGun]

I keep reading statement from Biden and the US government about their certainty that Putin has already decided to invade Ukraine. Even if that was true and they had a way of reading Putin's mind, what is the benefit of such statements? How do they help in de-escalating this crisis? What is the strategy employed?

They're likely made to buy time, hoping that Putin would not act just to prove them wrong. Troop movements have been indicating an imminent attack for sometime now. I'd worry when they stop making those statements.

Who knows, but I'm convinced that Russia doesn't want to invade Europe. What does the US want? the full control of Europe. In my opinion, Ukraine should drop its bid to join NATO. Geographically speaking, its under Russia's sphere of influence. Europe should be concerned about the economic impact of a hypothetical war in Ukraine; the war could make Europe energy crisis worse, among other severe economic consequences for the European people. Let’s also keep in mind that a potential war in Europe/Ukraine inevitably results in a huge wave of refugees from Ukraine (over 3 million). I can see the reason why the US refuses to grant Russia's right to a security space. Washington has everything to gain and nothing to lose.
---
Eight years ago, the CATO Institute admitted “The current U.S. attitude is more than a little hypocritical”. The US Needs to Recognize Russia's Monroe Doctrine

Poland ready for million refugees if Russia invades Ukraine

“Ready”, they say? who is ready to accept 5 million refugees?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Answer: not the United States

Everyone knows. It's no secret that Russia wants ex-Soviet breakaway states under its full control for varying reasons. Everyone also knows that USA doesn't want full control of Europe. That's quite extreme to claim that. It's especially extremely faulty analysis to paint Russia the way you do only to use different standards for USA. If Ukraine wants to join NATO it should be their choice. The same goes for CSTO.

[swabian]

That is one of the problems with those tyrants: It really does depend on their lifespan and lifetime too much. Putin is showing believable willingness to even confront NATO militarily. What if the guy is actually mentally ill? What if he is a psychopath or an undiagnosed psychotic who has some kind of vision of the future with him as the world's star in it? He might say to himself: après moi le déluge.

Nobody has the right to put the world at risk for their own gain. This individual deserves all the hell the NSA can bring down upon him. How occupied with their impotent toilet business are those guys actually?

[Cope]

I keep reading statement from Biden and the US government about their certainty that Putin has already decided to invade Ukraine. Even if that was true and they had a way of reading Putin's mind, what is the benefit of such statements? How do they help in de-escalating this crisis? What is the strategy employed?

The primary purpose is to cultivate an image of competence. If Russia invades, they were prepared and expectant; if not, they heroically averted a crisis (a la 1962). Framing Russia as an existential threat has other benefits too w/regard to foreign policy objectives and the security state.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

I keep reading statement from Biden and the US government about their certainty that Putin has already decided to invade Ukraine. Even if that was true and they had a way of reading Putin's mind, what is the benefit of such statements? How do they help in de-escalating this crisis? What is the strategy employed?

The strategy is to demonize the enemy.

Like this one: Russia Planning Post-Invasion Arrest and Assassination Campaign in Ukraine, U.S. Officials Say (foreignpolicy.com)

Today's Russia is depicted as evil as Sovietunion and Nazi-Germany.

So even if no invasion will happen, Europe will buy more LNG from US and Qatar.

And if a invasion happens, even better:

The US LNG industry will export more of their LNG to Europe, if Russia's natural gas imports are stopped because of sanctions.

Germany is not the only country, which is high dependant on natural gas.

For example Finland too:

5_2018_Finland's+security+of+supply+and+Russia’s+ability+to+influence+through+energy+under+energy+transition.pdf (tietokayttoon.fi)

A market without russian competition means profit for LNG producers like US and Qatar (yeah awesome to change a dependency from russian gas against one of the middle east, a region known for nearly no troubles).

[swabian]

A market without russian competition means profit for LNG producers like US and Qatar (yeah awesome to change a dependancy from russian gas against one of the middle east, a region known for nearly no troubles).

The US is playing with us no doubt. It is beyond obvious: they want us to depend on them (without having an actual plan about how this is supposed to work), they impulsively try to get us out of the dependency of Russian gas. Which is why France has the right of it. They heavily invest in nuclear power now, so in 20 years, we can flip off both, the Russians and the US.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Nuclear power is not the answer:

Cold wave: France relies on electricity imports from Germany - electricity prices are climbing

Münster - The current cold spell in Germany is spilling over to France, where it is also increasing the demand for electricity. As a result of the low temperatures, prices on the European electricity exchange are rising across the board. But there are also beneficiaries.

In France, electricity is often used for heating, and during a cold spell, the demand for electricity sometimes increases so much that French power plants reach their limits. The currently high demand is also driving electricity prices on the exchanges, but at the same time has a positive effect on the EEG account in Germany.

France relies on electricity imports despite nuclear power plants - Germany exports

France has the most nuclear power plants in Europe and is currently dependent on electricity imports. According to the French grid operator RTE, the peak power requirement today is over 80,000 MW. This means that France is still a long way from the record demand for electricity from 2012 of 102,000 MW. Despite this, France has to import electricity almost all day long. At its peak (08:00), electricity with a capacity of around 8,000 MW has been imported, of which 4,900 MW came from Belgium/Germany, 2,000 MW from Spain and 1,100 MW from Switzerland. Although France exported electricity with a total output of 3,500 MW to Great Britain and Italy at the same time, on balance France had to import electricity from abroad with a previous maximum output of over 4,000 MW.

France's nuclear power plants not fully connected to the grid

Although France can in principle fall back on 56 nuclear power plants with a capacity of 61,370 MW (as of January 1st, 2021), these are apparently not fully available for various reasons or cannot be used. According to the current power plant performance data, French nuclear power plants with an output of just 47,000 MW are currently connected to the grid, which is an utilization of only 76.6 percent, based on the total nuclear power plant capacity in France.

Increasing electricity prices on the stock exchange relieve the burden on the EEG account in Germany

The cold snap in Western Europe leads to sharply rising prices on the electricity exchange. For example, the kilowatt hour of electricity in day-ahead trading (delivery: February 9th, 2021) for the Germany / Luxembourg market area is set at 6.4 ct/kWh (base load), at the peak tomorrow between 9:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. even for 8.1 cents/kWh. The high electricity sales prices have a positive effect on electricity producers and power plant operators, who can improve their margins. The EEG account is also relieved, because the higher sales proceeds for the EEG green electricity lead to increasing income here.

Source: IWR Online
Kältewelle: Frankreich auf Stromimporte aus Deutschland angewiesen - Strompreise klettern (iwr.de)

The future will be hydrogen gas produced by renewable energy.

But we should not get offroad with a nuclear power yes - no debate.

[swabian]

Nuclear power is not the answer:


Cold wave: France relies on electricity imports from Germany - electricity prices are climbing

Münster - The current cold spell in Germany is spilling over to France, where it is also increasing the demand for electricity. As a result of the low temperatures, prices on the European electricity exchange are rising across the board. But there are also beneficiaries.

In France, electricity is often used for heating, and during a cold spell, the demand for electricity sometimes increases so much that French power plants reach their limits. The currently high demand is also driving electricity prices on the exchanges, but at the same time has a positive effect on the EEG account in Germany.

France relies on electricity imports despite nuclear power plants - Germany exports

France has the most nuclear power plants in Europe and is currently dependent on electricity imports. According to the French grid operator RTE, the peak power requirement today is over 80,000 MW. This means that France is still a long way from the record demand for electricity from 2012 of 102,000 MW. Despite this, France has to import electricity almost all day long. At its peak (08:00), electricity with a capacity of around 8,000 MW has been imported, of which 4,900 MW came from Belgium/Germany, 2,000 MW from Spain and 1,100 MW from Switzerland. Although France exported electricity with a total output of 3,500 MW to Great Britain and Italy at the same time, on balance France had to import electricity from abroad with a previous maximum output of over 4,000 MW.

France's nuclear power plants not fully connected to the grid

Although France can in principle fall back on 56 nuclear power plants with a capacity of 61,370 MW (as of January 1st, 2021), these are apparently not fully available for various reasons or cannot be used. According to the current power plant performance data, French nuclear power plants with an output of just 47,000 MW are currently connected to the grid, which is an utilization of only 76.6 percent, based on the total nuclear power plant capacity in France.

Increasing electricity prices on the stock exchange relieve the burden on the EEG account in Germany

The cold snap in Western Europe leads to sharply rising prices on the electricity exchange. For example, the kilowatt hour of electricity in day-ahead trading (delivery: February 9th, 2021) for the Germany / Luxembourg market area is set at 6.4 ct/kWh (base load), at the peak tomorrow between 9:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. even for 8.1 cents/kWh. The high electricity sales prices have a positive effect on electricity producers and power plant operators, who can improve their margins. The EEG account is also relieved, because the higher sales proceeds for the EEG green electricity lead to increasing income here.

Source: IWR Online
Kältewelle: Frankreich auf Stromimporte aus Deutschland angewiesen - Strompreise klettern (iwr.de)

The future will be hydrogen gas produced by renewable energy.

This is exactly why France is doing it: to sell cheap electricty to the so far economical powerhouse in Europe. And idealism like this WILL sell us out to them no doubt.

What does your idealism achieve? It achieves that Germany is getting ed over. Nothing else. Do you think the world will follow Germany's example? The they will do, they will be thankful for the energy prizes we emmit to them.

What will happen is this: everyone except us (if you are German) will use nuclear energy and you greenlords will ruin Germany in the meantime. Congratulations.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Do you even read the article? France must import electricity, because many of its nuclear plants are offline because of maintenance. Regularily.

And the german nuclear industry had get billions of public subsidies to be competitive because high security standards and repairs because of machine fatique by radiation are expensive. And no plan still today what to do with the waste.

And the Greenlords are representing the will of the majority in Germany 56 % for exist from nuclear power (Allensbach Institute, 2021).

And even more important the german energy companies want no revival of nuclear power.

[swabian]

Do you even read the article?

Of course not.

France must import electricity, because many of its nuclear plants are offline because of maintenance. Regularily.

Well, that's a pity. So it has to be Germany again.

And the german nuclear industry had get billions of public subsidies to be competitive because high security standards and repairs because of machine fatique by radiation are expensive. And no plan still today what to do with the waste.

The nuclear industry certainly doesn't get subsidies. They have been driven out of the country, together with the technology. An entire industry branch like this to be not feasable against all odds of populist demand, that requires laws to work againmst it. And, surprise, they are present in Germany since Merkel had her magical self-reflection after vigorously defendinding nuclear tech. The self reflection was of course Fukushima and the sentiment in the population, so the chancelloress reacted accordingly... in a populist way, because staying in power is fun.

The industry doesn't care, if Germany seizesceseses not mean it's rational or in any way sensible.

And the Greenlords are representing the will of the majority in Germany 56 % (Allensbach institute, 2021).

Ohh, really Allensbach? Wow, that has got to impress, doesn't it. No it doesn't. Neither does that occasional mood that has been surveilled at too few times, nor does the will of the plebs represent anything useful. I could bring up other failures of public opinions, but that would redirect us to the ever so popular topic of the 2nd world wor, i wager.

Seriously: you cannot make these things dependent on ing polls...

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

The nuclear industry certainly doesn't get subsidies.

204 billion € from 1950 - 2010.

Atomstrom - mit 304 Milliarden Euro subventioniert | Greenpeace

The real subsidies of 204 billion euros include direct financial aid from the federal government, research funding, costs for the nuclear waste repositories Asse II and Morsleben or for the decommissioning of the East German nuclear reactors.

Of course not.

Ok, then why should i discuss with you further? Because you want your radiant toys, which are exported no where as US, french or russian power plants are cheaper?

But most important: Even the german energy companies want no revival of nuclear power.

To come back on track:

Nuclear power can't replace russian natural gas.

[swabian]

Do you even read the article?

Of course not.

France must import electricity, because many of its nuclear plants are offline because of maintenance. Regularily.

Well, that's a pity. So it has to be Germany again.

And the german nuclear industry had get billions of public subsidies to be competitive because high security standards and repairs because of machine fatique by radiation are expensive. And no plan still today what to do with the waste.

The nuclear industry certainly doesn't get subsidies. They have been driven out of the country, together with the technology. An entire industry breanch like this can only be cast out by a populist majority. And, surprise, they are present in Germany since Merkel had her magical self-reflection after vigorously defendinding nuclear tech. The self reflection was of course Fukushima and the sentiment in the population, so the chancelloress reacted accordingly... in a populist way, because staying in power is fun.
The industry doesn't care, if Germany ceases to be rational, there are other customers, of course.

And the Greenlords are representing the will of the majority in Germany 56 % (Allensbach institute, 2021).

Ohh, really Allensbach? Wow, that has got to impress, doesn't it. No it doesn't. Neither does that occasional mood that has been surveilled at too few times, nor does the will of the plebs represent anything useful. I could bring up other failures of public opinions, but that would redirect us to the ever so popular topic of the 2nd world wor, i wager.

Seriously: you cannot make these things dependent on ing polls...

Germany is not exposed to earthquakes. There will be no Fukishimas here. These kind of fears stem from a vaccinophobic populace that also is afraid of "chemistry" and "genes" popping up in food.

[Sir Adrian]

This is exactly why France is doing it: to sell cheap electricty to the so far economical powerhouse in Europe. And idealism like this WILL sell us out to them no doubt.

What does your idealism achieve? It achieves that Germany is getting ed over. Nothing else. Do you think the world will follow Germany's example? The they will do, they will be thankful for the energy prizes we emmit to them.

What will happen is this: everyone except us (if you are German) will use nuclear energy and you greenlords will ruin Germany in the meantime. Congratulations.

Nuclear power is the only safe way to get off the Russian tit. Do you know what Europe and the US currently do with their solar panels and wind turbines? They don't recycle them, because it's cheaper to make new ones. They dump them all into East Africa where they pollute the rivers and lakes and eventually end up in the Indian Ocean.

[swabian]

Nuclear power is the only safe way to get off the Russian tit. Do you know what Europe and the US currently do with their solar panels and wind turbines? They don't recycle them, because it's cheaper to make new ones. They dump them all into East Africa where they pollute the rivers and lakes and eventually end up in the Indian Ocean.

The materials to construct and recycle RE are also running out. Except i guess with wind turbines hacking away at bird populations.

[swabian]

Like that does anything srsly...

[Heathen Hammer]

Did you seriously think I was promoting pan-Turkism or are you intentionally dodging the point I made: that bringing up who inhabited there for "centuries" is not an argument for Russia's right to control.

So... if Erdogan decides to give up part of Turkey that was populated by Turks since middle ages to another state without population's consent and then that new state starts preventing Turks from that region seeking independence, it would be okay?

Nature has a great system for ending tyranny. It is called the limited lifespan of humans. It is also one of the main reasons why West managed to create resilient, dynamic and stable societies compared to rest of the world.

Granted by whim of circumstance combined with unprecedented period of stability, which is by all metrics over. West today is far worse off then it was in 70s and if deterioration continues, it will be back to square one.

Tl;dr: Just as you were wrong with Trump, you will likely be wrong with the future of West and Russia as well. Russia will soon lose it's edge over Ukraine completely and become irrelevant to Europe. Especially as green energy adoption, gas from alternative sources like Gulf, Azerbaijan and American fracking fills in the energy gap for Germany. In the East, the weakened bear will lose it's sphere to China. Fİnally, the already dying system will not be able to carry this "stuck" structure as newer generations want more from life. But heyya, this is just what I think.

I think when you research the way EU treats is nuclear power potential, you'll be very disappointed as you realize that EU's dependency on fossil fuel is for good, thanks to A. Merkel and her energy sector illiteracy/stupidity.
So yeah, the problem here is that Europe is crumbling at a much faster rate while remaining dependent on Russia for the foreseeable future. There is no evidence that Ukraine will outpace Russia on anything, despite both nations being similar in their state systems, Russia is bigger and has more resources. Essentially what will likely happen is that Ukraine will attempt to retake the Republics, Russia will intervene, Zelensky will either capitulate or flee and that will be that.
I think the smart thing for Russian would be to let Western Ukraine keep its autonomy, maybe even help them take over power from Zelensky's weakened regime. In general, for expansion of its influence in Europe, Russia needs to abandon its Soviet vestiges and embrace itself as more of populist pro-European power. Russia must reconcile with Europe, granted not in Europe's current state, but after a few regime changes help mitigate excesses of globalism that is.

I thought I clear stated that I am all for giving Donbass and Crimea to Russia.

That part of your opinion is 100% correct.

[dogukan]

Some analysis for anyone interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPGZFSFCZsM

[Ludicus]

If Ukraine wants to join NATO it should be their choice... different standards for USA

The standards are the same.Back then in the 60's, Cuba was not allowed to have a military alliance with the USSR.Kennedy's decision is the one I would make too, if I were in his place.
Now, Russian leaders see the political/military integration of Ukraine with NATO as a direct threat to Russia.The same would be said by the US if Cuba or Venezuela were included in a military alliance with Russia. In 1962, the U.S. and Russia faced off during the Cuban missile crisis. On Oct. 22, Kennedy delivered a televised address announcing the naval quarantine of Cuba.The Cuban Missile Crisis ended when Kennedy, in response to Khrushchev's offer, agreed to remove missiles placed in Turkey and in southern Italy. Russia has now asked for the removal of NATO offensive weapons and personnel from Ukraine and the cessation of military activities in Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, and Central Asia. History is repeating itself.

So yeah, the problem here is that Europe is crumbling

The news of the death of Europe are greatly exaggerated.

Russia must reconcile with Europe, granted not in Europe's current state, but after a few regime changes help mitigate excesses of globalism that is

Globalism denies sovereignty and denies democracy, but it is possible to overcome hyper-capitalism without nationalist/racist identity based policies. Inequality (not poverty) is behind the global rise of identity politics. For example, in India. (*) In this country, the rising inequality in the midst of declining poverty has resulted in the rise of "identity politics" where identities are forged on the basis of caste and/or religion. The rise of identity politics deeply harms marginalized communities anywhere in the world. In the US- and in other countries- the racist rise of white identity policies feeds inequality.To sum up,inequality and white identity politics feed each other.
(*) recommended reading: “Indian Income Inequality, 1922-2015: From British Raj to Billionaire Raj?”

It is also widely well know that the the support for nationalist forces goes well beyond people "left behind" by globalization. Its not a coincidence that Putin's regime loves the American supreme leader, Donald Trump, and Trump supporters love the autocratic,nationalist Russian regime.

Are You with the Globalists or Patriots? - Russia in Global Affairs
Russian historian and political scientist, is Program Director of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Professor, MGIMO University.

Donald Trump’s remarks at the 74th Session of the UN General Assembly quickly became famous: “If you want democracy, hold on to your sovereignty. And if you want peace, love your nation. Wise leaders always put the good of their own people and their own country first. The future does not belong to globalists. The future belongs to patriots.”

Trump’s “patriotism” is in high demand where elites of a country base their ideology and electoral values on nationalism and stronger sovereignty motives.

Trump’s entire life shows that he will not surrender without a fight. For this reason, the upcoming presidential election in the U.S. is acquiring a huge global dimension

(...) numerous states seeking to strengthen their influence in the world choose Trump. Trump’s entire life shows that he will not surrender without a fight. In a nutshell, if you want to grow and be important in the world, be a Trump-style patriot, because with him gone, the alternative so much desired by many will disappear as well—in the East, in the developing world as a whole, and in the West itself too.

Oh dear.