Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Sar1n]

Its funny, because despite symbolic aid, it is pretty clear that both vegetable-in-chief in US and the EU oligarchy are already bending the knee to Kremlin, at least judging by where energy deals are going. I wonder what Russians have on our boy blunder here in Canada, that got him to waggle his tail at Putin with such vigor, but I assume its probably some kind of money laundering scheme that Western "leaders" got so involved in Ukraine to begin with.

Just FIY, that "symbolic" aid is already on the level of, and probably already exceeding, Russia's annual military budget. And based on reports, it's quite effective. Even Russia admitted that HIMARS are tearing it a new one.

[Ludicus]

Conon, Churchill never posed for Vogue during the WW2. Boris insists Churchill’s "spirit walking with" Ukraine president Zelensky. What’s going on is the romanticization of the war. And for publicity purposes, nothing beats posing for Vogue.

Zelensky is not Churchill; Zelensky has long had the most powerful army in Europe,but at the time that the UK declared war on Germany, Churchill had a weak army and when the invasion of Britain seemed imminent, there were no crowds to greet him, on May 10, 1940, when called to replace Neville Chamberlain as British prime minister (Churchill had not chosen to become PM) and after the military disaster at Dunkirk, he was faced with an deadly test, the victory seemed a distant prospect, and above all, Churchill was not a Biden's sacrificed pawn in the chess game of the US. In fact, Churchill regularly expressed searing criticism of the United States. Churchill: "The Americans’ love of doing good business may lead them to denude us of all our realizable resources before they show any inclination to be the Good Samaritan.”"(1941)

In New Year’s Day 1943,"They are so slow in training their army and getting it over here", "USA really wants to fight Japan and not Germany or Italy"; "The USA cannot have Supreme Commanders both here and in the Mediterranean and we must not allow it”.

To say that Zelensky is the Churchill of the 21st century is an insult to Churchill's memory.

Let that this:

"2) secondary condemnation belongs to the US (NATO) in deliberately provoking a war with Russia by implacably pushing its hostile military organization, despite Moscow’s repeated notifications about crossing red lines, right up to the gates of Russia. This war did not have to be if Ukranian neutrality, á la Finland and Austria, had been accepted. Instead Washington has called for clear Russian defeat."
I find this statement pretty much divorced fro reality.

Far away from that, in my opinion. Moscow’s repeated notifications about crossing red lines are a fact.in 2021 Russia proposes a New Security Architecture in Europe and Beyond
And it was ignored. And please read below , from a previous post, the US key ideas to weaken Russia, long foreseen/planned. Once again, Rand corporation works closely with the US Department of State and has played a vital role in connecting military planning with research and development decisions since its founding in the wake of World War II. I have already mentioned here the policy followed long ago by the American government, years before the war in Ukraine, described here in detail, Overextending and Unbalancing Russia - RAND Corporation

This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines nonviolent, cost imposing options that the United States and its allies could pursue across economic, political, and military areas to stress—overextend and unbalance—Russia’s economy and armed forces and the regime’s political standing at home and abroad… Providing lethal aid to Ukraine would exploit Russia’s greatest point of external vulnerability. But any increase in U.S. military arms and advice to Ukraine would need to be carefully calibrated to increase the costs to Russia of sustaining its existing commitment without provoking a much wider conflict in which Russia, by reason of proximity, would have significant advantages…

It is evident that the West in several areas threatened Russia’s interests. It clear that Russia made objections to the expansion of Western influence/NATO, and the massive militarization of Ukraine. The West largely ignored these objections. A lengthy discussion,The Russian Military Intervention in Ukraine: A Theoretical on the Ukrainian Crisis.

The purpose of this research is to explain why Russia made a military intervention in Ukraine. The paper offers a realist and a liberal perspective on the crisis and analysis whether these perspectives can explain why the conflict occurred. The realist perspective is mainly based on John Mearsheimer’s essay, Why the Ukrainian Crisis is the West’s Fault. While the liberal perspective utilizes Michael McFaul’s essay, Faulty Powers: Who Started the Ukrainian Crisis?

Conclusion.

... Consequently, the Russian military intervention in Ukraine can be explained by the West’s misunderstanding of the lengths Russia would go to in order to protect its strategic objectives and its security. In the case of Ukraine, it is clear that it was unacceptable for Russia to have a neighbor state, as strategic important as Ukraine, falling into the hands of the West. Therefore, Russia chose to make a military intervention in order to regain control over Ukraine. Russia acted as realist theory dictates.

[Heathen Hammer]

Just FIY, that "symbolic" aid is already on the level of, and probably already exceeding, Russia's annual military budget. And based on reports, it's quite effective. Even Russia admitted that HIMARS are tearing it a new one.

Yeah yeah, Russia will lose in 2 weeks, been hearing that one since since early March, only thing that changes in these stale talking points is the title of this week's overrated western wunderwaffe. Having said that almost every setback faced by Russian military has been primary result of bad decisions of Russian side, while budgets are more about Western officials making money on shady weapons deals, rather then trying to "turn the tide" or whatever NATO cultists dream of these days.

[Ludicus]

@Ludicus
A humble reminder to you, Ukrainians have agency, too. In case you didn't notice.

It's a matter of choosing wisely or not.If my country which has 900 years of independence (Ukraine has +-32 years) was geographically located in a conflict zone between the US and Russia, I would choose neutrality.A Polish general once complained, referring to his country's turbulent past: "I would trade all the past glories of my country for better geography"

[Sar1n]

Yeah yeah, Russia will lose in 2 weeks, been hearing that one since since early March, only thing that changes in these stale talking points is the title of this week's overrated western wunderwaffe. Having said that almost every setback faced by Russian military has been primary result of bad decisions of Russian side, while budgets are more about Western officials making money on shady weapons deals, rather then trying to "turn the tide" or whatever NATO cultists dream of these days.

I wrote it elsewhere a few months ago, but I predict that Russia's forces in Ukraine will disintegrate with a massive spring/summer offensive in 2023, followed by massive internal tensions, possibly third Chechen war, and virtually every country within Russia's sphere of influence abandoning it. Anything sooner than that will be a pleasant surprise to me.

Speaking of "wunderwaffe", where are T-14, SU-57 and so on? How come that only handful of Kinzhals have been launched throughout the conflict, with dubious effectiveness?

[Ludicus]

I wrote it elsewhere a few months ago, but I predict that Russia's forces in Ukraine will disintegrate with a massive spring/summer offensive in 2023, followed by massive internal tensions, possibly third Chechen war, and virtually every country within Russia's sphere of influence abandoning it. Anything sooner than that will be a pleasant surprise to me.

Please read attentively Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War-Rand Corporation.

---

Ludi, buddy, Lavrov already announced that Russia intends to push for a regime change in Ukraine. What negotiations?

My dear friend, it's war propaganda. Ukraine also says that it will take back Crimea. I believe that everything is negotiable.

[Heathen Hammer]

I wrote it elsewhere a few months ago, but I predict that Russia's forces in Ukraine will disintegrate with a massive spring/summer offensive in 2023, followed by massive internal tensions, possibly third Chechen war, and virtually every country within Russia's sphere of influence abandoning it. Anything sooner than that will be a pleasant surprise to me.

Speaking of "wunderwaffe", where are T-14, SU-57 and so on? How come that only handful of Kinzhals have been launched throughout the conflict, with dubious effectiveness?

That sounds somewhat... unrealistic? Ukraine has no capacity to launch an offensive, nor does Russia have internal tensions. In fact, the only coup I can envision in Russia is if Putin gets ousted for "not doing enough" or something, by even bigger hardliners in Russian alphabet agencies.
Kinda goes to show that being in echo chamber of corporate media, reddit and twitter may negatively effect your perception of reality.

[Sar1n]

That sounds somewhat... unrealistic? Ukraine has no capacity to launch an offensive, nor does Russia have internal tensions. In fact, the only coup I can envision in Russia is if Putin gets ousted for "not doing enough" or something, by even bigger hardliners in Russian alphabet agencies.
Kinda goes to show that being in echo chamber of corporate media, reddit and twitter may negatively effect your perception of reality.

...you have no idea what you're talking about. Chechnya is the prime example-despite the wars, they're still an unruly member of RF that's only held by iron fist of the Kadyrov proxy. There are, in fact, Chechens currently fighting for Ukraine. Do you really think that, with Russia severely weakened by this conflict, they'll simply stop fighting once they come home? The third Chechen war is a very likely possibility. And there's a bunch of other RF members that might use the advantage of Russia's exhaustion. With military exhausted and disillusioned, popular coup is also a possibility. Russia is not as stable as you think.

As for Ukrainian forces...
9-12 months. That's how long you need to turn fresh recruits into passable artillery, tank or other heavy weapons crews under wartime conditions. Which means that by spring, Ukraine will have more than enough such crews coming from those over 500k conscripted troops. By then, those promised hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces will be delivered. If the west keeps its promises, and so far there is every indication that it will, Ukraine will be poised to strike hard once the spring rasputitsa passes. Russia, on the other hand, will be more worn out.

[Lord Thesaurian]

How it started:

US can't do anything.In my opinion, there will be no invasion.

One thing is very obvious, our European governments aren’t willing to consider sanctions on Russian energy exports

From my point of view, Russia isn’t about to attack Ukraine.

Russia will not invade Ukraine.

No one in Europe or in Ukraine or in Russia is interested in a new war. The Kremlin document in the ten pages letter reads,"There is no "Russian invasion" of Ukraine, which the US and its allies have been announcing officially since last fall, and it is not planned, therefore, statements about "Russia’s responsibility for escalation" can be regarded as an attempt to exert pressure and devalue Russia’s proposals for security guarantees"

Who knows, but I'm convinced that Russia doesn't want to invade Europe.What does the US want? the full control of Europe.

How it’s going.

Conon, Churchill never posed for Vogue during the WW2. Boris insists Churchill’s "spirit walking with" Ukraine president Zelensky. What’s going on is the romanticization of the war. And for publicity purposes, nothing beats posing for Vogue.

Alas, Putin was trying to give us fair warning all along. If only western analysts had picked up what he was throwing down.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Ludicus]

Before the invasion few believed it would happen.
Zelensky even asked, Ukraine crisis: Don't create panic, Zelensky tells West
Also Putin Decided Last-Minute to Invade, Intelligence Officials Say

In December, the CIA issued classified reports concluding that Putin hadn’t yet committed to an invasion…“The CIA was saying through January that Putin had not made a decision to invade. I think Putin was still keeping his options open

Again. In 2021, before the invasion, (17.12.2021) Russia proposes a new Security system in Europe.So, at that time, the invasion was not yet decided.

Originally Posted by Ludicus
Who knows, but I'm convinced that Russia doesn't want to invade Europe. What does the US want? the full control of Europe.

I don't think I mixed these two statements in the same post, but it is undeniable that it is no longer possible to consider the EU and NATO as separate entities in practice, only formally.Meirsheimer rightly says that Germany, the engine of Europe, even for historical reasons, does what the US decides.The US has already the full control of the EU.

Remember? whoever does not do what the US decides is sanctioned, even the faithful Germany,
Already a few years ago U.S. warns German companies of possible sanctions over

The United States has warned German companies involved in the Russian-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that they could face sanctions if they stick with the project.
‘UNACCEPTABLE THREATS’
Juergen Hardt, foreign policy spokesman for Merkel’s conservatives in parliament, was scathing in his criticism of the U.S. move.
“That the U.S. ambassador is now turning to German companies with direct threats is a new and unacceptable one-sided tightening of the tone in the transatlantic relationship,” Hardt said.

Alas, Putin was trying to give us fair warning all along.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

It makes no sense to say that this photo was a "warning" from Putin. The man liked to show off his masculinity. No comparison can be made with the obvious romanticization of war displayed in the Vogue photographs.I don't remember any European or American leader during WW2 who took pictures for fashion magazines, to encourage the citizens of their countries.

[Laser101]

Err I would e pretty much misses on all swings but...

Let that this:

"2) secondary condemnation belongs to the US (NATO) in deliberately provoking a war with Russia by implacably pushing its hostile military organization, despite Moscow’s repeated notifications about crossing red lines, right up to the gates of Russia. This war did not have to be if Ukranian neutrality, á la Finland and Austria, had been accepted. Instead Washington has called for clear Russian defeat."

I find this statement pretty much divorced fro reality. But I would ask that you paraphrase that so I understand how you see and find it correct. If you don't have the time I wait a bit.

It would probably be more accurate to say that US policy regarding Ukrainian NATO membership has been a 'worst of both worlds' situation; non-committal promises that have been sufficient to cause alarm in Russia but not provided any effective deterrence. The US should have either fully committed much earlier or ruled it out entirely.

[conon394]

Conon, Churchill never posed for Vogue during the WW2

That was not my point. It was that the Ukraine is fighting for national survival and so as done nothing including propaganda that the UK did not do.

Churchill had a weak army and when the invasion of Britain seemed imminent,

Yes well good thing he had a superior air force, and a vastly superior Navy and that the German plans for crossing the channel were so laughably poor that no modern war game of them as even managed to get the Germans across (to than loose) without a list of assumptions that are preposterous.

In New Year’s Day 1943,"They are so slow in training their army and getting it over here", "USA really wants to fight Japan and not Germany or Italy"; "The USA cannot have Supreme Commanders both here and in the Mediterranean and we must not allow it”.

Slow in training huh? Good thing I think. I would rather not have trusted the man behind Gallipoli and Deippe or the ridiculous decision to halt operation Compass for an amazingly pointless waste of men and equipment in Greece with deciding when to invade France. Really Rather glad IKE got to make the call on when a channel invasion was possible.

Zelensky has long had the most powerful army in Europe

Umm Err what? How do you figure that?

Far away from that, in my opinion. Moscow’s repeated notifications about crossing red lines

What red line I like a list. I mean that chronologically so we can compare NATO and Russian actions at the time of these red line declarations. And also look at what was happening in NATO and particularity in the new members. In particular to hear the IR neo realist talk you would think when the ex Warsaw pact members joined NATO the old NATO army in Ester Germany simply moved to the Polish boarder while the Exp Pact countries maintained their cold war armies butting what 3 or 4 million men on the Border with the ex USSR... which of course did not happen. Rather under NATO Western and Eastern Europe massively disarmed, American troops did base themselves in Poland and most left Europe in droves.

It is evident that the West in several areas threatened Russia’s interests. It clear that Russia made objections to the expansion of Western influence/NATO, and the massive militarization of Ukraine

Massive militarization of the Ukraine when? Before the events of 2014 not at all, and even than hardly except when Putin invaded.

I like how you ignore say Russia behavior. Umm Lets see violating Ukrainian sovereignty, aside from just being a recognized UN member state, Russia was violating its guarantees of Ukrainian territorial integrity. Violating it agreement to withdraw from Moldavian territory. To say nothing of interference in Georgia. Russia does not seem in any hurry to return Kaliningrad to nature owners. You do seem to have a particular one directional view of grievances.

I would choose neutrality

Nothing suggests Ukraine ever had in the view of Russia this mythical option.

"Meirsheimer rightly" lives in a fantasy world. where Russia is a great Power. Be realistic but for his nuclear stockpile Putin could not even be thinking of trying his invasion plan.

Again. In 2021, before the invasion, (17.12.2021) Russia proposes a new Security system in Europe.So, at that time, the invasion was not yet decided.

Ahh good time for that one. I suppose It assumes locking in the Russian belief no former soviet state has sovereignty of any kind?

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Yeah yeah, Russia will lose in 2 weeks, been hearing that one since since early March, only thing that changes in these stale talking points is the title of this week's overrated western wunderwaffe.

And yet it has been 5 months an Russia STILL has not even taken the Donbass. This is beyond pathetic for the "2nd strongest military in the world". Maybe 2nd strongest military in Ukraine. How many tens of thousands more sons will Russia lose for Mussolini 1.2's hollow ambitions and delusions of grandeur?

My dear friend, it's war propaganda. Ukraine also says that it will take back Crimea. I believe that everything is negotiable.

No, it's not. For the second time in his life (first time was him revealing his anti-semetism) Lavrov is being honest. You're naive to think Russia would settle for Ukranian neutrality. This is like thinking that Hitler only wanted Austria, or only wanted the Sudetenland, or only wanted Czechoslovakia, or only wanted Danzig..
Enough appeasement. At some point we have to say "Enough. You can't invade that."

[Ludicus]

I'll be quick, I'm very busy today. To conclude what I said in my last post: anyone who is not in bad faith, understands what I mean when I say that the US can end this war in 24 hours, The War in Ukraine Can Be Over, if the U.S. Wants It

Hawks will misconstrue this as appeasement and tirelessly invoke Neville Chamberlain, as if all modern foreign policy were an exact repetition of a war fought 80 years ago. Nazi Germany conquered France in a matter of weeks; Putin’s Russia cannot even get close to Odesa.
The endgame of the war must be a negotiated settlement, and, yes, it will be up to the U.S. to broker one. The sooner the Biden administration and its European allies move to aggressively bring Moscow and Kyiv to the table, in spite of those like the U.K.’s Johnson who would rather scuttle such talks, the sooner the slaughter can end. Diplomacy is not appeasement. It is the only way out.

Because the longer this war drags on, the worse, and the more likely the use of nuclear weapons will become. Hasn't anyone realized yet that Russia will not give up?

[Lord Thesaurian]

The US can end this war in 24 hours……. Hasn't anyone realized yet that Russia will not give up?

Comical and morally bankrupt anti-US double think, abridged. Gotta love the implicit admission that the US should somehow force Kiev to unconditionally surrender.

[Ludicus]

A final note,

Lavrov is being honest. You're naive to think Russia would settle for Ukranian neutrality.

May be yes, may be no, to me it’s war propaganda. But if this is the case, they should seek advice from the US, which is an expert in the matter of switching governments in foreign countries.

[Coughdrop addict]

You could save a lot of time and effort if you just posted "Russia Stonk!" instead of Kremlin propaganda textwalls. It'd be just as effective.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

I'll be quick, I'm very busy today. To conclude what I said in my last post: anyone who is not in bad faith, understands what I mean when I say that the US can end this war in 24 hours, The War in Ukraine Can Be Over, if the U.S. Wants It

"The nazi invasion of Poland can be ended by the UK and France in 24 hours, just make them give up Daznig"
That's how you sound.
Ukraine and Ukranians are opposed to territorial concessions to Russia. This is up to Ukraine, not anyone else.

A final note,

May be yes, may be no, to me it’s war propaganda. But if this is the case, they should seek advice from the US, which is an expert in the matter of switching governments in foreign countries.

"US bad, therfore Russia should be allowed to annex and genocide whoever and whatever."
Yeah, nah.

[conon394]

But if this is the case, they should seek advice from the US, which is an expert in the matter of switching governments in foreign countries.

Nobody should listen to a bloating war criminal like Kissinger. I bet the man never lost a second of sleep for the harm and bloodshed he wrecked in Laos or Cambodia... But hey they are just little people living in not great powers so who cares right Ludicus?

[Sar1n]

I'll be quick, I'm very busy today. To conclude what I said in my last post: anyone who is not in bad faith, understands what I mean when I say that the US can end this war in 24 hours, The War in Ukraine Can Be Over, if the U.S. Wants It

Because the longer this war drags on, the worse, and the more likely the use of nuclear weapons will become. Hasn't anyone realized yet that Russia will not give up?

Despite the denial, it would be exact same mistake as Chamberlain did. Because there are undeniable parallels between mentality driving current Russia's campaign, and Reich. The fall of Soviet Union and following depression during pro-western Yeltsin administration left the Russian public disillusioned and bitter, as it saw the rise of oligarchs at the expense of common people. Putin managed to get a handle on economy (although in truth, it was the previous administration that started it) and started profiling himself as saviour of Russia, promising return to the "good old days". He spent twenty years ramping up the propaganda and his latest speeches, in which he claimed he'll retake everything that used to be at any time Russian territory and restore the Soviet sphere of influence are comparable to the infamous "lebensraum". It would be a mistake to think that at some point, he'll have his fill. Every victory-from Georgia in 2008 to Crimea 2014-emboldened him and his supporters (which is, according to latest polls, majority of Russians) even more and so would any further concessions in Ukraine. Just like he came back for more after Crimea, he'd go after the rest of Ukraine once his army recovers, and then...Moldova, which will fold instantly, and Baltic states. Their independence is intolerable for imperialistic Russia under Putin for several reasons, and he outright stated he intends to claim them. But those are NATO members. Unlike the war in Ukraine, the use of nuclear weaponry in that conflict is tangible.