Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Coughdrop addict]

Russia has attacked the harbour of Odessa with Kalibr missiles.

https://www.dw.com/en/russia-ukraine...eal/a-62571574

You simply can't trust Putin.

Sure you can. You can trust him to lie, steal, and murder. He is the most predictable man in the world in that regard.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

A day after telling the Turks that Russia had nothing to do with the missile attack on Odessa, Russia admitted responsibility for the attack on Odessa, thus admitting to have violated the agreement less than 24 hours after it was signed.

[conon394]

They going to ask for a Mulligan on the treaty than?

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Another blow to the "Peace by Negotiations" - nonsense:

7:09 p.m
Lavrov: Moscow wants regime change in Ukraine

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that Russia wants to overthrow the Ukrainian government. "We are definitely helping the Ukrainian people to liberate themselves from the regime that is absolutely hostile to the people and history," Lavrov said in Cairo on Sunday. The Russian and Ukrainian people would henceforth live together.

The statement contrasts with previous statements by the Russian leadership that the overthrow of the Ukrainian government is not an aim of the invasion. In the past few days, Russia had publicly tightened its position in the Ukraine war. On Wednesday, Lavrov threatened to occupy other areas outside of the Donbass. In view of the western supply of arms and their longer range, it is necessary to further push the Kiev troops away from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, which Moscow has recognized as independent.

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/polit...-blog-100.html

(in german)

He is obviously talking of annexation of great parts of Ukraine and making the rest to a Satellite state.

[AqD]

Now that Germany/EU can breathe a collective sigh of relief, it is the right time to impose more sanctions on Russia (insert irony). The new (the seventh) package will introduce a new import ban on Russian gold. Zelensky, as usual, is not satisfied, says these sanctions are not enough.

Sanctions are only enough when Putin is chained and dragged to the Hague like a street criminal he is.

While there is still time, make peace, because the world is already on fire.

Why not tell Putin then? All it takes to end the mess is for him to surrender. Or he could wait until his world is burned out.

In Mariupol, at the Azovstal factory, it was reported for two months that two thousand Ukrainian civilians were trapped inside the facility because the Russians were preventing them from leaving safely - which they denied. But all it took was for Guterres to go to Moscow to speak with Putin and then to send a UN delegation to Mariupol, and within two days all the civilians were safely out. After all, as it was easy to guess, they were being held hostage by the Azov Battalion, which only let them leave using them as shields.

Everyone could go home if Russians withdraw from the factory.

Stop citing UN or international laws, we don't care. This war is between Putin and the western power. Rules do not apply to enforcers.

And while buying russian gas for work and home we still financed easy life on the Iberian Peninsula:

2020 Portugal 3,3 Billion € Surplus

This decision will be remembered in the next financial crisis, which will come like the river is flowing to the Ocean.

Times of crisis are the times, in which you can see who you can trust on and who not.

Do we really benefit by turning off gas now though?

Putin can have money but so would we. The main benefits of sanctions are to bar them from buying anything useful and pushing their educated class and wealth out of the country. If they can't do anything with money, why not let them keep it, sending to our banks or spending on yachts we build?

[conon394]

After all, as it was easy to guess, they were being held hostage by the Azov Battalion, which only let them leave using them as shields.

Missed that. So umm Just making stuff then are we?


@Morticia Iunia Bruti

You misssed the thing Ludicus will key in on

" In view of the western supply of arms and their longer range, it is necessary to further push the Kiev troops away from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, which Moscow has recognized as independent."

You see 'Poor Russia' is just reacting to the west giving Ukraine weapons out of the blue or something. It had to it was forced etc.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Yeah i guess this is a cognitive dissonance in some parts of the public, which confuses victim and offender. I'm sure it will be called in few years "The Mearsheimer Syndrome".

[reavertm]

Yeah i guess this is a cognitive dissonance in some parts of the public, which confuses victim and offender. I'm sure it will be called in few years "The Mearsheimer Syndrome".

You won the Internets today for me, my friend.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Ukraine has received the first Gepard anti-aircraft tanks from Germany. "The first three Gepards officially arrived today," Defense Minister Oleksiy Resnikov said on Ukrainian television on Monday. Several tens of thousands of shots were also handed over. In total, Ukraine expects 15 Gepard machines, Reznikov added.

https://www.spiegel.de/ausland/krieg...a-d88e06062684

@reavertm: You are welcome.

[Heathen Hammer]

Ah yes when free Peasants under Poland/Lithuania found out that Russian serfdom sets you free...

Poland/Lithuania had serfdom too, so did most of "Enlightened" Western Europe at the time as well.

It’s like you didn’t even read what you replied to.
Kievan Rus was not founded in the 5th century.
There were multiple Ukrainian states pre 1917, it just wasn’t called Ukrainian then but instead ruthenian.

That's a pretty cute wacky pseudo-historical theory. Since we already established that Zaporozhian Cossacks were not "Ukrainian", what were those mysterious "Ukrainian states"? Rurikid principalities from middle ages? East Slav population of those principalities that Poland/Lithuania later enslaved until Russian Empire liberated them? Territories occupied by Ottomans?

No.
Cossacks were by and large from other ruthenian territories controlled by Poland-Lithuania who migrated southwards.

You do realize Ruthenian is just an old-timey name for Russian, right?

Even if there wasn’t ever a Ukrainian state before, it does not give Russia the right to murder hundreds of children and thousands of civilians. That you excuse a fascist regime is no surprise, however. We all know who the real nazi’s in this “war of denazification” are.

Globalist puppet regime in Kiev has been murdering children and civilians in Donbass for like over 8 years now. The war started long before 2022, it just entered new phase in April.

[conon394]

Poland/Lithuania had serfdom too, so did most of "Enlightened" Western Europe at the time as well.

Yet it was still a much slower walk than in say France or Russia to a more absolute fro of serfdom. And second it was never so absolute as in Russia (you didn't see Polish surfs fleeing to Russia). So any answer on the rest of my post?

You do realize Ruthenian is just an old-timey name for Russian, right?

Err no.

Globalist puppet regime in Kiev has been murdering children and civilians in Donbass for like over 8 years now. The war started long before 2022, it just entered new phase in April.

Whatever.

Russian Empire liberated them?

So Catherine liberated the Tartars of the Crimea from their own state?

[Heathen Hammer]

Yet it was still a much slower walk than in say France or Russia to a more absolute fro of serfdom. And second it was never so absolute as in Russia (you didn't see Polish surfs fleeing to Russia). So any answer on the rest of my post?

Vicious inhumanity of French revolution, directed at peasants in places like Vendée is clear indicator that more then often, Russian Empire was epicenter of human rights in comparison to some of the more progressive places in Western Europe. I already addressed the rest.

Err no.

Gainsaying isn't an argument, my guy.

Whatever.

That just goes to show how fake Western concerns over "human rights" are.

[conon394]

Vicious inhumanity of French revolution, directed at peasants in places like Vendée is clear indicator that more then often, Russian Empire was epicenter of human rights in comparison to some of the more progressive places in Western Europe. I already addressed the rest.

That my friend is massive leap of non logic to go the events of Vendee to somehow Russian serfdom was an epicenter of human rights.

I already addressed the rest.

You did where? Otherwise I will assume you agree a hypothetical Polish Lithuanian union can liberate the Grodno region.

Gainsaying isn't an argument, my guy.

Its not gainsaying to point a decidedly false statement.

That just goes to show how fake Western concerns over "human rights" are.

Whatever because you are spewing RT trash. So find a link of Russian speaking children and civilians dying in Donbas before Putin engineered war and bid for annexing part of Ukraine. I suppose the Globalist Ukraine government also managed to sneak a Buk missile launcher into the occupied Donbas and shoot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 and sneak back home ?

[nhytgbvfeco2]

That's a pretty cute wacky pseudo-historical theory. Since we already established that Zaporozhian Cossacks were not "Ukrainian"

We established the exact opposite. Zaporozhian Cossacks were Ukranians, who came from other Ruthenian (Ukranian by and large) populated territories of Poland-Lithuania.

what were those mysterious "Ukrainian states"?

Hetmanate, Principality of Kiev, multiple entities during the Russian civil war (Makhnovshina, Green Ukraine, Ukranian state etc)

Rurikid principalities from middle ages?

Some could be considered as such eventually, after all you consider Rurikid Kievan Rus as a Russian state.

East Slav population of those principalities that Poland/Lithuania later enslaved until Russian Empire liberated them? Territories occupied by Ottomans?

Enslaved ROFL. They had a lot more freedom under Poland-Lithuania than they ever did under Russia. So much so that they became dominant in the GDL (to the point of modern Belarussians attempting to claim it was a Belarussian state) and almost became their own entity under the proposal of the Polish-Lithuanian-Ruthenian commonwealth.

You do realize Ruthenian is just an old-timey name for Russian, right?

No, it isn't. If you want to get technical it's the Latin term, whereas Russian is the Greek term. However beyond being a word in a different language, it means something different. Ruthenian is a term that was used to call what we now call Ukranians and Belarussians.

Globalist puppet regime in Kiev has been murdering children and civilians in Donbass for like over 8 years now. The war started long before 2022, it just entered new phase in April.

Muh Donbass for 8 years.
Can you give me a year by year breakdown? How many children were killed by Ukraine in territories controlled by DNR and LNR in 2021? How about 2020? 2019? 2018..?
Do you want me to give you the number of civilian casualties (not just children), on both sides, for the whole of 2016 - 2021? It's 365.
This is a pathetic excuse. As is anyone using it.

Russian Empire was epicenter of human rights

Man, can I have some of what you're smoking? It's like you live in an alternate reality.
Russia is, and has almost always been, one of the worst places to live in terms of human rights. I say this as an ethnic Russian. The people living under the yoke of Russia have never in history been free, always going from one hyper authoritarian dictator to the next, sometimes being a bit more free due to said dictator's sheer incompetence. Human rights isn't even Human suggestions in Russia, it's a list of what not to do. You'd enjoy greater freedom in prison than you would in Russia.

[Mithradates]

A day after telling the Turks that Russia had nothing to do with the missile attack on Odessa, Russia admitted responsibility for the attack on Odessa, thus admitting to have violated the agreement less than 24 hours after it was signed.

Its like it caught them off guard too, first denying it, then admiting it was them when it becomes clear it was Kalibr missiles and everybody knows only they have those in the area.
I dont believe they violated the agreement on purpose, it happened in the worst time for them, right when Lavrov starts his "Lets Find New Friends for Russia Tour" in Africa. Egypt gets 80% of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine and just one day after the Russian strike on Odessa, Lavrov now has to convince them that Russia will honor the agreement, pinky swear.

It happened so soon after the agreement that I think it was incompetence, someone in the Russian army failed to do his job to order their artillery to stop targeting Odessa.

Still, its Russia's fault.

[Ludicus]

The EU plan to limit natural gas usage as it is drawn up is an ill-conceived plan. The European Commission considered that Portugal can share gas with the rest of Europe by diverting ships and deliveries of liquefied natural gas to other European ports. Doesn’t make sense. 2022 is the year of the worst drought in this country, facing worst drought since records began

Solidarity does not exist to benefit some and harm others. The country has already increased electricity imports by 61%. To cut gas usage it would hamper electricity production. It is perfectly understandable that we would be willing to ration gas, when we have gas, if that would serve some European need. That’s not the case. Portugal believes that this issue should be negotiated in the European Council. In Spain, Ribera Rodríguez, was crystal clear “Unlike other countries, we Spaniards have not lived beyond our means from an energy point of view.”
It's a reference to the excesses of Schäuble’s ordoliberal austerity and the confession by the German Foreign Minister Heiko Mass: “The strict austerity and the Troika were torture tools."

Anyway, the European energy ministers are expected to meet tomorrow, and Brussels' 'save gas' emergency plan shows signs of softening
...but the news are not good for anyone,

Just after 3pm today various tweets appeared suggesting Russian energy company Gazprom has just halted another engine at its Nord Stream 1 pipeline – meaning daily gas flows are declining further (than they have already). From40% to 20%.The price of gas instantly started rising.

In a statement, executive director Fatih Birol said “the world is going through the first real global energy crisis in history”.

The EU (Ursula) keeps saying: "Russia is using gas as a weapon”. Well, the same applies to Ukraine who didn't want Nordstream 1 to work again and because of that launched a violent attack on Trudeau. Nobody dares to criticize Zelensky. I think Zelensky is happy now, that's what he wanted.

According to the W.S.J.

The statement helped send wholesale European gas prices up 6.9% Monday to 175.74 euros a megawatt-hour, equivalent to about $180. They have more than doubled so far this year and are expected by analysts to keep rising as winter approaches, adding to inflation that is straining economies, governments and financial markets in the region.

It has been said here (Morticia, referring to the EU's coronavirus relief deal) that Germany should vote against helping the Iberian countries at the next opportunity, as revenge for their refusal to share gas with other countries. I have explained before that this makes no sense, but let's get to the bottom of this issue. The EU's coronavirus relief deal was formally proposed by Mario Centeno, the Portuguese President of the Eurogroup in 2020. But the 500 billion euros is almost entirely loans, so the return of the fiscal compact next year will mean levels of austerity for a very large part of Europe, and above all, for the usual suspects... what is coming is another austerity plan, we will be hit by a secondary recessionary wave that will be imposed by Brussels/Frankfurt, while endless billions are generously pumped into one of the most corrupt countries in the world, Ukraine, that doesn't even belong to the EU.
It will be the coming back to Black Zero rule. Not because Scholz (a social-democrat) wants it, but because his coalition is fragile and can collapse at any moment. The most famous of all depictions of a black zero: The staff of the Federal Ministry of Finance forms a “black zero” to wave Wolfgang Schäuble goodbye in 2017.




Someone please tell me this is not going to happen, because -for example - Italy is going to have to borrow huge quantities of money, and according to some economists there will be a substantial GDP collapse in Italy, of at least 10%. The deficit will be gigantic. Based on current polls, the obvious favorite in September’s election in Italy is a coalition led by the far-right Brothers of Italy. Giorgia Meloni is harshly critical of the EU and its policies. Her motto “In defence of God, fatherland and family” is the very same as Bolsonaro's motto and before that, a long time ago, it was the motto of integralism, a Brazilian fascist-inspired movement founded in 1932.It was also the motto of the Iberian dictators. It is also the motto of Orban– and frankly we all know that Orban merely wants to profit from the EU while negotiating with Putin to buy gas on favorable terms; for him, it’s the best of two worlds. Btw, Viktor Orbán sparks outrage with attack on 'race mixing' in Europe

It is somewhat ironic to see that while we are waiting for the economic destruction of Europe, Ukraine’s "vibrant democracy" has already received more than 16.5 billion in macro-financial assistance since 2014 and more on the way: EU pledges $9.5B in macro-financial assistance to Ukraine

It is a bottomless pit in financial terms. Billions that since 2014 have been used to help build the most powerful army in Europe and to pump money into the pockets of the officials of one of the most corrupt countries in the world. Not to mention the billions that have been coming from the US for all those years. Whitewashing Ukraine's Corruption - Cato Institute
---
It is incomprehensible that our so-called West has been obstinately disregarding Russia's repeated security concerns for three decades- from Gorbachev to Putin to Yeltsin- and insisting on bringing Ukraine into NATO. A compromise with Russia, making Ukraine a geopolitical neutral state, would have been a bearable solution and would have prevented the war. Is there is any imperial nostalgia in Putin's game? I don’t know, but there is a sense that Russia was being suffocated by NATO, step by step. For historical and geopolitical reasons, Putin chose Ukraine as the last permissible trench of NATO's advance, it was chosen by Putin as the terrain of confrontation with NATO, but it was also chosen by NATO as the field of confrontation with Russia, since NATO had long been arming and training the Ukrainian Army.
As someone has already said,the invasion of Ukraine was a crime, but the crime is bilateral, for if Ukraine has not yet formally entered NATO, NATO has entered Ukraine in force and is delighted there.
---
Orban is the new passion of American Conservatives Authoritarian Viktor Orbán to Speak at US Conservatives

in August Orbán will join allies of former President Donald Trump

As you all know, the Republican Party is not my cup of tea. But it must be said that being part of the GOP does not always mean you are wrong. Rebekah Koffler is President of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, former DIA intelligence officer, and belongs to the Republican Party. From an American conservative perspective Biden's Recklessness Is Turning Ukraine Into Another Afghanistan
---
German President Steinmeier said yesterday that "Putin's war against Ukraine is also a war against the unity of Europe".

However, this war is, in fact, being fought between the US and Russia, and therein lies the hard core of the peace problem. The U.S. intends to prolong the war indefinitely, for months or years, until Russia's economic capacity is exhausted.
The European economy has suffered a sharp decline and could enter a prolonged period of stagflation: in these four months of war and sanctions, the euro has depreciated by 12%, and average inflation on the continent is around 8.5%, reaching nearly 20% in some Baltic countries; and the trade balance of Germany itself, Europe's largest exporting economy, had a negative balance last May of 1 billion dollars.

What are we waiting for? waiting for Godot? what have we achieved so far? galloping inflation in many countries, governments resigning, a drop in industrial production, the spectre of recession and once again the Protestant austerity on the horizon, social protest in several countries, etc. I would say that political autism and arrogance prevent our European leaders from seeing the advantages of not fueling the prolongation of the conflict. We now run the risk that this war will make Europe even more geopolitical irrelevant. As someone said, the "war in Ukraine may have been the final nail in the coffin of a friendly relationship" of Europe with Russia and China". Ukraine Has Soured the European Union on China

The true is that the US/allies have not succeeded in isolating and excluding Russia from the international economic and political system. Only 21% of UN member states supported the economic sanctions imposed on Russia, and in these four months of war, Russia has managed to maintain and expand its business with China, India and most countries in Asia, and the Middle East, including Israel (the only western country that does not exercise any sanctions against Russian entities or capital) Israeli-Russian trade still prospering despite Ukraine War , Africa and Latin America (including Brazil).

The head of the Office of Zelensky wrote a few months ago-last may: “Russia’s war against Ukraine is a rejection of all Westphalian principles” We are denied the right to sovereignty”.

I would say that the new world order increasingly resembles the model created by the Peace of Westphalia in 1648: there will no longer be a hegemonic power or region of the world that unilaterally defines its rules. Why the peace treaty of 1648 merits scrutiny today

The various Christian groups had been killing each other until they finally decided that they had to live together, but in separate units.” There was no clear winner or loser. The peace was based on “the necessity to come to an arrangement with each other, not on some sort of superior morality”.

[conon394]

Not sure its it worth posting since I can't find a Polish or non Ukrainian source to confirm that outside of news.az (looks like they just are relying on the same sources out of Ukraine) - it looks Poland has started sending its PT-91s to Ukraine. Since the 116 second batch of Abrams the Poles bought are M1A1 to be upgraded later seems to mean they are available for immediate delivery that seems credible. Thus it looks like Poland is off loading all its T72 based kit. PT-91s would be a nice back bone of refreshed maneuver units for offensive operations in the south.

Poor move by Putin if he both finally convinced Poland to stop fiddling around trying to upgrade again both its T72s and PT-91s and just buy new but still also find a useful home for its old gear that harms Him (Putin)

[conon394]

From an American conservative perspective Biden's Recklessness Is Turning Ukraine Into Another Afghanistan

Ahh Newsweek has not been a real thing since the WaPO solid it Ludicus it is a fringe right rag more or less now a zombie of what it was.

From you Link...

"the country remains one of the most corrupt places in the world, ranking 123rd out of the 180 countries on the corruption scale"

Gasp their is corruption in the Ukraine? You know who rates worse or the same Mexico, Philippines, Egypt, Algeria, Thailand, Kenya. I suppose we got up a lot of aid and friendly relations cut ties and only help the pure and good. Also You it not like the US is up there with NZ and Denmark. Middle of the pack pot should not toss too many stones. Fat Leonard scandal anyone(*)

"That a U.S. Congresswoman would side with a foreign leader against an American colleague for trying to ensure that American taxpayers are not taken for a ride by corrupt politicians is despicable."

You know that might be a point when the author writes a similar paper demanding to know why the Pentagon looses so much money every year I will care.

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fat_Leonard_scandal

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Russia also rates worse for corruption than Ukraine, yet bringing up corruption in Ukraine is a favourite tactic of the supports of the fascist Putin regime.

Ludicus, you going to respond to the post earlier linking to Lavrov openly stating Russia wishes to establish a puppet regime in Ukraine? Or how about the violation of the grain agreement in under 24 hours from when it was signed? Still think negotiations can yield results?

Stop peddling Russian propaganda. Russia lies. All. The. Time.

[conon394]

Africa

Great amazing market access at 2.6 trillion but that will surely make for loosing the 44 trillion combined markets of the US/EU and just Japan. Add in Taiwan to the NATO side and Russia going to shopping for those missing chips where again oh right China one can only speculate at the cost.