View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    65 65.00%
  • I support Russia fully.

    12 12.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 4.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    6 6.00%
  • Not sure.

    6 6.00%
  • I don't care.

    7 7.00%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #4341
    Alastor's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    There's more to life than money. How high Russian foreign reserves get isn't particularly relevant. The bigger deal is getting cut off from the largest economies of the world, and that's not bound to change anytime soon. United States and EU comprise 40% of the world economy. If you add in other allies like Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Canada (who's economy is just as large as Russia's), etc, that probably adds up to another 10-20% of the global GDP. Meaning Russia is sanctioned by half of the world. The technologically advanced half.
    For now. In the long term who knows and in the short term Russia wins. The article I shared does mention that the sanctions may in the long term hurt Russia more, but that's a may and it also implies a level of commitment and consistency that politics generally lacks.

  2. #4342

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by AqD View Post
    Germany was the one who kept increasing reliance on Russian gas.
    France was the one who refused to accept Georgia before they were invaded by Russia.

    Perhaps they shouldn't lead EU politics anymore, not until Russian collaborators are kicked out.
    France and Germany make up the majority of the economic/political power of the EU, especially now that UK has left the EU. You're never going to kick them out of the leadership position and it wouldn't make sense to anyway. Without France and Germany to lead the Union, the Union does not really make much sense. Instead, a political iteration of something like the Three Seas Initiative would be much more sensible.

    Because unlike spineless German and French politicians, they do value freedom and long term prospect.
    I mean I personally think that's a bit of a funny take. All countries are obsessed with their national security and all national security experts always consider the worst case scenario. For years, the Baltics have been crying about an imminent Russian invasion when analysts like Kofman and myself personally, pointed out that Russia is much more likely to invade and be worried about border states that are explicitly NOT NATO members, and countries that might present a much more direct threat to Russia's interests.

    People who have been paying attention would've seen the deterioration of Russo-Ukrainian dialogue from Minsk-2 onwards and saw the warning signs of a military conflict as early as Autumn of 2020 when dialogue completely collapsed. In a way, every time Poland and the Baltics have cried wolf, diverted attention from the actual problem, which was the unresolved nature of the Minsk-2 agreement and its potential for sparking a confrontation in Europe. This war has exacted its toll on everyone, and nobody is winning from it. I supposed my country, United States, stands triumphant as it has greatly damaged its foes without so much as firing a shot or expending any political capital.

    Anyway, considering the interior politics of the Baltics and Poland, and the occasional irredentism they display, it is a little comical to think that any of these countries value Western norms or freedom more than France or Germany. France and Germany genuinely don't have any plans to partition Russia or re-distribute past territory. The Baltics? Not so much.

    All in all, if we are going to reject Russian irredentism and historical revisionism, we should probably apply those ideals to everyone.

  3. #4343
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Finally caught up with an army friend and his take onthe war is interesting, echoing a lot of opinions on here. He feels the morale and small unit training of Ukraine is contrasting positively with Russia, range of supply has apparently been mentioned (I didn't fully understand this but seemingly Ukraine has a stronger mobility vs Russia being tied to roads, I was unsure if thats because Ukraine is on home ground or some logistic problem with Russian vehicles?) and the UK, US and Polish special forces on the ground directing recon and liaising is said to be really important.

    Most of all Ukraine had a plan they worked on for 6 years and shared up and down the command chain, the Russian plan looks very tampered with and not everyone knew what they were supposed to do. All stuff various people have mentioned here.

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    ...

    All in all, if we are going to reject Russian irredentism and historical revisionism, we should probably apply those ideals to everyone.
    Completely agree. My country plays power politics in the Pacific and we're incensed when China attempts the same. Its very hypocritical, especially when the bone of contention is mostly in the mouth of Wall Street and the Tech Billionaires.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  4. #4344
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Completely agree. My country plays power politics in the Pacific and we're incensed when China attempts the same. Its very hypocritical, especially when the bone of contention is mostly in the mouth of Wall Street and the Tech Billionaires.
    I'll support your government regardless.

    It's never about moral or holding everyone to the same standard - our national security is much more important than theirs.


    Just think what Putin would do in your position.

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    Anyway, considering the interior politics of the Baltics and Poland, and the occasional irredentism they display, it is a little comical to think that any of these countries value Western norms or freedom more than France or Germany. France and Germany genuinely don't have any plans to partition Russia or re-distribute past territory. The Baltics? Not so much.
    What's wrong with that? Soviet was built on robbing other countries' and peoples' land. It's only right the land is given back.

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    All in all, if we are going to reject Russian irredentism and historical revisionism, we should probably apply those ideals to everyone.
    No.

    The war is a slap on the faces of those idealistic idiots who dream of a global harmony. It didn't work. Time to wake up and focus on saving our own asses.
    Last edited by AqD; June 04, 2022 at 01:29 PM.

  5. #4345
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Anyway, considering the interior politics of the Baltics and Poland, and the occasional irredentism they display, it is a little comical to think that any of these countries value Western norms or freedom more than France or Germany. France and Germany genuinely don't have any plans to partition Russia or re-distribute past territory. The Baltics? Not so much.
    Pretty weal link for serious irredentism. Also of course by Putin standards they would be right about Kaliningrad it just Stalin Era (that is now defunct USSR not Russia) spoils with no historical connection to Russia. When you can find me a link that that current Polish leaders are writing essays saying Belarus does not exist and is just full of Poles who are not being taught Polish I will say you you have found real comparable irredentism (or at minimum all of Belarus on a north south line just a tad west of Minsk (*))

    * I mean if they wanted go real irredentism they could form a union with Lithuania and than claim all of Belarus and some big bite of the Ukraine... bit again not seeing that in party platforms etc.
    Last edited by conon394; June 04, 2022 at 03:40 PM.
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  6. #4346
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Ukraine anger as Macron says 'Don't humiliate Russia' - BBC
    The French attempts to maintain a dialogue with the Kremlin leader contrast with the US and UK positions.
    Foreign minister Kuleba said in a tweet that "calls to avoid humiliation of Russia can only humiliate France and every other country that would call for it".
    ---
    For Zelensky, only military victory matters, even if Ukraine is razed to the ground.
    Some wealthy bureaucrats warn that Europeans must be ready to sacrifice themselves for an extended period that can be months or years. Fuel prices are already reaching unacceptable levels, food prices keep rising. Let's see how long this will be possible without provoking civil unrest, political instability, and a fragmented EU. On a side note, many of these sophisticated weapons sent to Ukraine will later end up on the black market and will be sold to European and foreign terrorists.

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    the unresolved nature of the Minsk-2 agreement and its potential for sparking a confrontation in Europe
    Ukraine sees 2015 agreement as an instrument to re-establish control over the southern independentist, pró-Russian territories. Russia sees Minsk-2 as a way to guarantee its central security demand, that Ukraine is never allowed to join NATO, and the control of Donbas.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    An interesting article: https://consortiumnews.com/2022/06/0...nsortium-news/
    It appears that the fight to quell dissenting views continues:
    So it seems.
    As Orwellian as the Disinformation Governance Board may be, it’s not even the most immediate threat to our freedom of speech, writes John Kiriakou. Are we guarding the news against misinformation, or are we guarding the country from the news? Guarding Democracy from News
    The past month has seen blows against freedom of speech for independent news outlets and, indeed, for all Americans. I’m not being hyperbolic here. There are real threats to our freedom of speech against which we ought to mobilize.
    First, the Biden administration named something called a “Disinformation Governance Board,” housed in the Department of Homeland Security, whose job will supposedly be to “standardize the treatment of disinformation by the agencies it oversees.” That means that the government will be the final arbiter of what disinformation is. It will decide what we can and can’t read. At least that’s the plan. (It is now on hold after an angry backlash.)...
    etc.
    ----
    Edit,
    Quote Originally Posted by AqD View Post
    (Poland and the Baltic states)Because unlike spineless German and French politicians, they do value freedom .
    Freedom is very important, no doubt: if I remember well, Ulysses Grant argued that the American Civil War was God’s punishment for the capture of 55% of the Mexican territory. Well, it seems that Russia’s Manifest Destiny is the capture of the pro-Russian Donbas. Don’t worry, God will punish Russia in the long run.
    On a more seriously note, China and India are rivals, but now, the China/India/Russia’s love triangle is here to stay…and Pakistan, go figure, The formation of a new Quad…..China, India, Russia and Pakistan.
    So, China, India and Pakistan are all on Russia’s side now. Voila, here’s the new Quad: China, India, Russia and Pakistan. No matter the denials, there is great consternation in Washington D.C., over New Delhi’s support of Moscow.
    Last edited by Ludicus; June 05, 2022 at 05:30 AM.
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  7. #4347
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    double post.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
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  8. #4348
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Ukraine anger as Macron says 'Don't humiliate Russia' - BBC

    ---
    For Zelensky, only military victory matters, even if Ukraine is razed to the ground.
    Some wealthy bureaucrats warn that Europeans must be ready to sacrifice themselves for an extended period that can be months or years. Fuel prices are already reaching unacceptable levels, food prices keep rising. Let's see how long this will be possible without provoking civil unrest, political instability, and a fragmented EU. On a side note, many of these sophisticated weapons sent to Ukraine will later end up on the black market and will be sold to European and foreign terrorists.
    I can see it now. al-Qeada driving around in HIMARs and Leopard 2s.

  9. #4349
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Let's not exaggerate but, Flood of weapons to Ukraine raises fear of arms smuggling

    Ukraine’s illicit arms market has ballooned since Russia’s initial invasion in 2014, buttressed by a surplus of loose weapons and limited controls on their use.

    This uncomfortable reality for the United States and its allies comes amid urgent pleas from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to provide artillery needed to counter Russian forces in the country’s east and south...The U.S. government is well aware of the country’s challenges with weapons proliferation, though it has been vague in describing the precautions it’s taking
    ------
    Mr. Kuleba should try to be more humble and show more respect to France. France has been tireless in its aid to Ukraine. France sending 'significant equipment' to Ukraine to fight Russia
    France will increase financial aid to Ukraine by $300 ... - Reuters

    Macron looks at the future, and, like me, is not interested in Europe ending up as the main loser in this war. Boris, always in a euphoric state (Ukraine will win war and “be free”) does not show interest in starting negotiations, which makes me think that Europe looks like the Titanic. The orchestra plays and there is a party in the first class, while Ukraine is underwater in the third class.
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
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  10. #4350
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Macron looks at the future, and, like me, is not interested in Europe ending up as the main loser in this war. Boris, always in a euphoric state (Ukraine will win war and “be free”) does not show interest in starting negotiations, which makes me think that Europe looks like the Titanic. The orchestra plays and there is a party in the first class, while Ukraine is underwater in the third class.
    Macron was making some good sense. As usual he is one of the few European leaders with a modicum of vision. I found the vehement "we shall not negotiate" and "to the end" response from Kiev, coupled with what was effectively a rebuke towards Macron, as fairly ungrateful. But then again, that's not news from Kiev. It also dispels the myth that its Russia alone that doesn't want negotiations.

    Either way, as I've said before, if Kiev wants to keep fighting until there is nothing left, ok their call, I don't understand why the EU needs to follow them down that path though? We already have done enough damage to our economies and we have nothing to show for it. Not even gratitude.

  11. #4351

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Reports say Russian airstrikes are hitting civilian infrastructure in Kiev to prevent overland grain exports, despite insisting it’s Ukraine that is blocking them by sea. Does the Kremlin really think they can convince the global south to blame Ukraine/the West for skyrocketing prices and shortages?
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    I'm convinced that if the U.S. wanted, they could solve the conflict in 48 hours.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  12. #4352

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Macron was making some good sense. As usual he is one of the few European leaders with a modicum of vision. I found the vehement "we shall not negotiate" and "to the end" response from Kiev, coupled with what was effectively a rebuke towards Macron, as fairly ungrateful. But then again, that's not news from Kiev. It also dispels the myth that its Russia alone that doesn't want negotiations.

    Either way, as I've said before, if Kiev wants to keep fighting until there is nothing left, ok their call, I don't understand why the EU needs to follow them down that path though? We already have done enough damage to our economies and we have nothing to show for it. Not even gratitude.
    Whether or not the Ukrainians are willing to negotiate or not at this point is kind of irrelevant, since the Russians have not made any indication of being willing to negotiate either at present. If they were interested, then the calculation changes somewhat.

  13. #4353
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I think we can finally stop fantasizing about negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. They really are at total war stage and there will be not one thought at diplomacy until one side (preferably Russia) basically is really crippled. This is beyond awful, but it must not be that Ukraine loses this. There can be only one positive outcome and that is a Ukrainian victory and Russia must not get anything. Yes Putin would be humiliated... he would be humiliated by anything at this point (like a fly on his nose). The Ukrainians probably will go on a counter offense to fight free their citizens held hostage by Russia. This is especially where there can be no more discussions in the West. It needs to be proven beyond any doubt, that all the promises towards supporting Ukraine are worth a €. This is extremely important.
    Last edited by swabian; June 05, 2022 at 08:11 PM.

  14. #4354
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Mr. Kuleba should try to be more humble and show more respect to France. France has been tireless in its aid to Ukraine. France sending 'significant equipment' to Ukraine to fight Russia
    France will increase financial aid to Ukraine by $300 ... - Reuters
    Interesting how opaque their discloses are however its pretty hard not to notice Poland is probably providing far more aid.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  15. #4355
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-g...181140936.html

    A reporter of the Russian state media is claiming that another Russian general has been killed in Ukraine. How many is that now confirmed?

  16. #4356
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-g...181140936.html

    A reporter of the Russian state media is claiming that another Russian general has been killed in Ukraine. How many is that now confirmed?
    4 confirmed. A whole bunch more unconfirmed/claimed/haven't been seen in a while/have no family so can be denied.
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  17. #4357
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    4 confirmed. A whole bunch more unconfirmed/claimed/haven't been seen in a while/have no family so can be denied.
    It seems the Russians are still having problems coordinating it's troops at a tactical level forcing Russian generals to be on the Frontline. Whenever this dampens Russia's offensive is yet to be seen. Still heaving fighting going on in Severodonetsk.

  18. #4358
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    It seems the Russians are still having problems coordinating it's troops at a tactical level forcing Russian generals to be on the Frontline. Whenever this dampens Russia's offensive is yet to be seen. Still heaving fighting going on in Severodonetsk.
    Others will be able to explain it better, but some of that is a structural thing. Russians express mentorship and experience at different levels and in different ways to Western forces. So they probably anticipate more losses in these ranks than Western forces might.
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  19. #4359
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Others will be able to explain it better, but some of that is a structural thing. Russians express mentorship and experience at different levels and in different ways to Western forces. So they probably anticipate more losses in these ranks than Western forces might.
    I'm aware that Russia's army is structured differently than Western armies like the lack of NCOs but that's why Russia has so many junior officers. They are supposed to be on the frontline making these tactical decsions, not generals. Russia's lack of NCO corps isn't the real problem. People don't realize the Ukrainians themselves don't have a large NCO corps. They still somewhat fight based on Soviet doctrine. Yet the Ukrainians don't seem to have their generals dying at the same rate as the Russians.

    https://warontherocks.com/2022/06/no...-force-design/

    That's a great article that's goes in depth on Russia's military. From the reforms it has conducted, the structure of it's military and size of it's BTGs, to the conscription and contract soldiers.
    Last edited by Vanoi; June 06, 2022 at 02:59 AM.

  20. #4360
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Although we don't have great visibility of Ukrainian losses at any level, apart from high level rough estimates from Zelenskyy. If we're seeing up to 100 KIA per day for Ukrainian forces, and many of the KIA are coming from Russian fires, then there's probably a spread of ranks.

    And we have also seen indications over time that Ukraine (and perhaps with US intelligence assistance) has been deliberately targeting administrative nodes in Russia's command structure (easy to do when they're using cellphones ), so Russian generals don't have to be face to face with Ukraine's infantry. Just at the wrong forward base at the wrong time. I mean, Zelenskyy himself has spent time over the last week, within Russian artillery and air range so even he is one unlucky moment away from catastrophe.
    Last edited by antaeus; June 06, 2022 at 05:53 AM. Reason: Too many althoughs
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