View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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100. You may not vote on this poll
  • I support Ukraine fully.

    65 65.00%
  • I support Russia fully.

    12 12.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 4.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    6 6.00%
  • Not sure.

    6 6.00%
  • I don't care.

    7 7.00%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #4301
    z3n's Avatar State of Mind
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    The dude rate seems normal. Its not Russia looks to also not a have high dud rate in it rocket systems as well. I think the key think is neither side right now gives a damn about long term consequences like you do when fighting a major for fo big time goals. A 10-20 percent failure rate in the cluster munition is fairly low.

    Also you kinda passed over the terrain specif reasons the rate may have been high.

    Third you ignoring the context of the story. The cluster munition is deemed a failure because of the non exploded rate something the US fighting non existential wars and not wanting lots stories about dead Iraqi children digging one up was able to care about.

    From a Ukrainian perspective in the now - It weapon that adds capabilities and critically the US has a crap ton of ammo in storage for them... Ukraine does not ban cluster munitions.
    I have only seen guided missiles talked about, so this could be that either the US have decided not to use them for bombardment purposes anymore due to their general ineffectiveness toward unarmoured Chevrolet SUVs or simply a doctrinal decision due to the dud rate. And well if I was writing an essay, I probably would have mentioned that soft terrain e.g. the famous muddy fields of a Ukranian or Russian spring could negatively affect the American MLRS bombardment ammo.

    Lastly I personally don't really think the US cares about collateral damage during a war they want to win, so not sure why you mentioned that. Maybe to further reinforce my point that they probably won't be using bombardment ammo?
    Last edited by z3n; June 01, 2022 at 01:04 PM.
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  2. #4302
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by reavertm View Post
    ... I will ask it again: do you think Ukrainians have anything to say in that matter?
    You need to ask them.The people. In the west and in the east.The west is largely Catholic; the east largely Russian Orthodox. The west speaks Ukrainian; the east speaks mostly Russian.
    Kissinger, in 2014,
    In my life, I have seen four wars begun with great enthusiasm and public support, all of which we did not know how to end and from three of which we withdrew unilaterally. The test of policy is how it ends, not how it begins.
    (…) A wise U.S. policy toward Ukraine would seek a way for the two parts of the country to cooperate with each other. We should seek reconciliation, not the domination of a faction.
    What happened? the US government made no secret of its support of the anti-Yanukovich demonstrators. A phone call was taped between the American ambassador Pyatt and Victoria Nuland, discussing which politicians should form a transitional government-more than two weeks before Yanukovich finally fled the presidential palace on February 22

    Quote Originally Posted by reavertm View Post
    Or it's all US, mind controlling poor Ukrainians to fight Russia despite their "best interest"
    It seems that the best interest of the US is to weaken Russia. I hope not to the point of a complete material and human devastation of the country.
    Yes, the United States Should Weaken Russia - Foreign Policy
    By John R. Deni, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute and a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
    …reducing its power—defined more broadly than Austin probably intended—to threaten vital U.S. and Western interests on a whim ought to be at the core of a new U.S. strategy toward Russia.
    That’s what’s is going on. I completely agree with Micheal Hirsh,
    Biden's Dangerous New Ukraine Endgame: No Endgame -Foreign Policy.

    By Michael Hirsh, a senior correspondent at Foreign Policy.

    With his strategy to “weaken” Russia, the U.S. president may be turning the Ukraine war into a global one.
    In a dramatic series of shifts this week, U.S. President Joe Biden and his NATO allies have escalated their policy of helping to defend Ukraine against Russian aggression into a policy of undermining the power and influence of Russia itself. In so doing, some observers fear, they are leaving Russian President Vladimir Putin little choice but to surrender or double down militarily, raising the possibility of widening his war beyond Ukraine."
    George Beebe, a former chief of Russia analysis for the CIA, said that the Biden administration may be in danger of forgetting that 'the most important national interest that the United States has is avoiding a nuclear conflict with Russia.' He added that 'the Russians have the ability to make sure everyone else loses if they lose too. And that may be where we’re heading. It’s a dangerous corner to turn.
    'It’s getting more dangerous,' said Charles Kupchan, a former senior U.S. official and now a scholar of international relations at Georgetown University. 'We need to start moving beyond Javelins and anti-tank missiles and talk about a political endgame.
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  3. #4303
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Lastly I personally don't really think the US cares about collateral damage during a war they want to win, so not sure why you mentioned that. Maybe to further reinforce my point that they probably won't be using bombardment ammo?
    Actually the US very much does. That why it crated up the cluster munitions and stopped using them. The PR was just to bad when kids or peasants stumbled into them and the cost of getting down to something like 1% sub munitions non failure or all self destruct was not working out.

    toward unarmoured Chevrolet SUVs
    Something the times story more or less reports without any particular effort to make it easy verify the fact they claim. And even a modestly damaged vehicle can be a mission kill.


    -------------


    That’s what’s is going on. I completely agree with Micheal Hirsh,
    Biden's Dangerous New Ukraine Endgame: No Endgame -Foreign Policy.

    By Michael Hirsh, a senior correspondent at Foreign Policy.
    Again Putin's feeling are so bloody important. I just curious if LBJ said said he would have bad feeling about North Vietnam wining and if if China and Russia did not stop arming it he would nuke them you say well China hand Russia have take LBJ's feeling into consideration.
    Last edited by conon394; June 01, 2022 at 01:56 PM.
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  4. #4304

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Actually the US very much does. That why it crated up the cluster munitions and stopped using them. The PR was just to bad when kids or peasants stumbled into them and the cost of getting down to something like 1% sub munitions non failure or all self destruct was not working out.
    I doubt it's that to be honest. It's just problematic when you saturate an area with munitions, that your own troops then have to re-take and walk over. That's not bad PR at that point, that's just taking pointless casualties when we could just spend more money and use a PGM instead.

    We're also comparing Apples to Oranges. Nobody in NATO, including United States has been in large-scale combat since Iraq. We bombed plenty of civilian areas with impunity and lack of care for collateral damage. By comparison, extended COIN operations do care about collateral damage because you are occupying the area. Killing the locals is counter-intuitive to your goals.

    Put United States instead of Russia in Ukraine and you will still see a lot of civilian casualties. Significantly less of course, and Mariupol probably wouldn't be destroyed, but who knows? United State didn't face stiff opposition like Russia is facing it right now. In fact, you could say that it would take United States just as long as Russia to take a city and opposition like Mariupol because we really do over-think our operations and try to minimize personnel casualties.

  5. #4305
    z3n's Avatar State of Mind
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Actually the US very much does. That why it crated up the cluster munitions and stopped using them. The PR was just to bad when kids or peasants stumbled into them and the cost of getting down to something like 1% sub munitions non failure or all self destruct was not working out.



    Something the times story more or less reports without any particular effort to make it easy verify the fact they claim. And even a modestly damaged vehicle can be a mission kill.


    -------------




    Again Putin's feeling are so bloody important. I just curious if LBJ said said he would have bad feeling about North Vietnam wining and if if China and Russia did not stop arming it he would nuke them you say well China hand Russia have take LBJ's feeling into consideration.
    I don't know why you're accusing the NYTimes of being unreliable in this instance, given that they had an interview with the squadron operations officer at the time, Mark Hertling in 2017; wherein he would be the source for the "failed to damage unarmoured Chevrolet SUVs" quote.


    Don't really believe the US cares, the casualty counts for civilians caught in the crossfire tells otherwise, for pretty much any war that comes to mind. I agree it's bad press though, there's a lot of different situations we can point to like this one where seven children were killed in collateral damage by a drone strike. IMO they could have at least waited until the children were out of the blast radius or done it before. Furthermore, investigation by the Times showed what the military claimed was completely false.

    You're right that it could be press related though.

    Experts who examined photos and videos pointed out that, although there was clear evidence of a missile strike and subsequent vehicle fire, there were no collapsed or blown-out walls, no destroyed vegetation, and only one dent in the entrance gate, indicating a single shock wave.


    “It seriously questions the credibility of the intelligence or technology utilized to determine this was a legitimate target,” said Chris Cobb-Smith, a British Army veteran and security consultant.
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  6. #4306

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by z3n View Post
    I don't know why you're accusing the NYTimes of being unreliable in this instance, given that they had an interview with the squadron operations officer at the time, Mark Hertling in 2017; wherein he would be the source for the "failed to damage unarmoured Chevrolet SUVs" quote.
    They also published some truly awful articles about the F-35, so I'm not necessarily inclined to believe NYT when it comes to military expertise.

  7. #4307
    z3n's Avatar State of Mind
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    They also published some truly awful articles about the F-35, so I'm not necessarily inclined to believe NYT when it comes to military expertise.
    John Ismay seems rather qualified on the topic and consulted at least one other expert (Mark Hertling); so I don't think we can point to this instance as the NYT being unreliable.

    A graduate of the U.S. Naval Academy, Mr. Ismay served as the gunnery officer aboard a destroyer in the Pacific before becoming a Navy special operations officer, qualified in deep-sea diving and salvage, parachuting and bomb disposal. He completed a number of overseas deployments, including one to northern Iraq during the 2007 surge.

    John Ismay is a Pentagon correspondent in the Washington bureau, and previously served as the At War reporter covering armed conflict for The New York Times Magazine. He was part of a team of New York Times reporters awarded a George A. Polk Award in 2015 for their coverage of SEAL Team Six.
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  8. #4308

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by z3n View Post
    John Ismay seems rather qualified on the topic and consulted at least one other expert (Mark Hertling); so I don't think we can point to this instance as the NYT being unreliable.
    Maybe, I try to go with consensus, rather than qualified experts unless I'm familiar with the topic and I know who is who, but I'm inclined to believe you simply because NATO doctrine does not really rely all that much on MLRS or artillery. NATO is predominantly reliant on air-power, and they have a lot less artillery than Russia. I'm not familiar with Germany's force structure, but if you just look at the equipment on hand, there really isn't a lot of artillery of any kind, considering the size of Germany's army.

    Looking at Poland, it seems that the same was true of Poland, at least until 2018. They made massive investments to improve their indirect fire. Though, I would also point out that comparatively, the Polish Air Force has a small air force. I can certainly accept that HIMARS is a sub-standard MLRS platform right now. It probably has plenty of space for improvements though. MLRS effectiveness is really about the rockets, the platform itself is just an aiming tool. BM-21 Grad for example is just a truck with a few analog aiming devices, that shoots modern missiles.

  9. #4309
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Accession of Ukraine to the European Union
    The Flash Eurobarometer survey conducted in April in all EU countries shows the greatest support for Ukraine's accession to the EU in Portugal where 87% of respondents supported...Hungarians are the most skeptical about Ukraine's accession, with only 48% of respondents supporting the idea (37% against).
    So, Igor Zhovkva, Zelensky's special envoy is here. Portugal will provide technical support to Ukraine in its EU accession process Portugal vai partilhar com a Ucrânia "know-how acumulado" sobre adesão à UE

    Igor Zhovkva says,
    It may take time, it may take months or years, but it depends very much on the European Commission. But yes, we want a fast procedure.
    It will take years.France says Ukraine entry into EU will not happen for '15 or 20 years ...
    Some EU leaders share France's scepticism about a rapid acceptance of Ukraine's membership bid, concerned that it will take time to rebuild a war-shattered economy, reduce corruption and adopt far-reaching economic and legal reforms.
    German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said there were "no shortcuts" to joining and the accession process "is not a matter of a few months or years"
    Last edited by Ludicus; June 01, 2022 at 03:23 PM.
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  10. #4310

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Accession of Ukraine to the European Union
    So, Igor Zhovkva, Zelensky's special envoy is here. Portugal will provide technical support to Ukraine in its EU accession process Portugal vai partilhar com a Ucrânia "know-how acumulado" sobre adesão à UE
    Igor Zhovkva says,
    It will take years.France says Ukraine entry into EU will not happen for '15 or 20 years ...
    So?
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  11. #4311
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    So, Zelensky has called for Ukraine's immediate EU membership. Zelensky appealed to the EU on February 28 "for the immediate accession of Ukraine via a new special procedure.""Our goal is to be with all Europeans and, most importantly, to be equal. I'm sure that's fair. I am sure we deserve it"
    -----
    -----
    Until now, this was (also) a US proxy war to weaken Russia. A more worrisome development is that for the first time, the US has admitted direct offensive actions against Russia. The US admits to be directly involved in the war. The US Cyber Command chief confirms US took part in offensive cyber operations,

    US military hackers conducting offensive operations.

    In an exclusive interview with Sky News, General Paul Nakasone confirmed for the first time that the US had "conducted a series of operations" in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
    We've conducted a series of operations across the full spectrum; offensive, defensive, [and] information operations."
    --
    Edit.
    Expect civil unrest in Europe in a few months.
    Euro zone inflation hits yet another record high as food and energy prices soar.
    In Germany German inflation at highest level in nearly half a century
    French Inflation Hits Another Record, Feeding Rate Debate
    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 




    And… the US /NATO says it's ready to back Kyiv for years in war against Russia
    Last edited by Ludicus; June 01, 2022 at 05:29 PM.
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  12. #4312
    reavertm's Avatar Decanus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I agree with Ludicus. I expect more civil unrest in Europe, to pressure their governments to impose even harsher sanctions and send more weapons. B'cause everyone understands well who started all of this and nobody understands why Russia does not want to stop killing people.

  13. #4313
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The impacts of this conflict on the wider global economy are troubling in a number of different ways. But I just don't see an ethical way to avoid this outcome without some sort of Russian capitulation (de facto or de jure) that doesn't allow for continued mass deportations, ethnic cleansing, random executions, arbitrary imprisonment, coerced enlistment of Ukrainian citizens etc... etc... etc...

    So there's a balance to be made here. The world's economy will recover or rebalance with enough time to react to current circumstances. It might even encourage greater use of renewables in Europe, better diversification of global food networks etc. The world isn't passive - where there's money to be made from changing circumstance, it will be made. On the other hand, will those summarily executed on the streets be unexecuted?


    Quote Originally Posted by z3n View Post
    Not sure where you're getting this from? American MLRS ammo Ukraine will get and HIMARS rate of fire isn't really even the point of it, they launch guided missiles and aren't meant to bombard. They're more like an Iskander missile with significantly less range (80km~) but more numbers. It's more of a precision weapon since their weak point is actually bombardment, the MLRS that Russia uses is more for bombardment with a 90-120km range unless we are talking about Iskanders with 500km+ in reach.
    Totally... Thomas Theiner did a great thread that has been retweeted by a number of US current and former generals and logisticians that predicted what might be deployed (prior to announcement) and outlined how they might be deployed. Their potential use by Ukraine places them kind of mid way between local and theatre wide tactical use... Certainly useful to push back Russian artillery, but perhaps more useful to use to target logistics hubs and rail assets that are currently out of reach - with more affect than could be achieved with limited stocks of mid range ballistic missiles. But also useful when used in tandem with artillery to target breakthrough attempts.

    It also looks now like they'll be getting both systems (Some from Germany/UK)
    Last edited by antaeus; June 01, 2022 at 07:51 PM.
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  14. #4314
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Have to agree people calling for balance directly after a massive assault approve the assault. I'll support a balanced approach once Ukraine advances the same distance into Russia as Russia did into Ukraine.

    Then we compromise, Russia withdraws to its internationally agreed borders, and negotiations begin in good faith.

    Clamouring for a stop to the madness immediately after a savage attack is just accepting the savage attack is acceptable, and its not.

    It has slowly crystallised in my mind that this shabby bull**** scenario is as if I claim Ludicius owes me some money (which he disputes), I assault him on the street and steal his wallet, and then the rest of you approach and tell me to give half his money back....but I can keep the Crimean wallet because my dad used to have one like it...and everyone knows i have an AR15 vat home and I keep hinting I will shoot up the neighbourhood if anyone annoys me too much.
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  15. #4315
    z3n's Avatar State of Mind
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    The impacts of this conflict on the wider global economy are troubling in a number of different ways. But I just don't see an ethical way to avoid this outcome without some sort of Russian capitulation (de facto or de jure) that doesn't allow for continued mass deportations, ethnic cleansing, random executions, arbitrary imprisonment, coerced enlistment of Ukrainian citizens etc... etc... etc...

    So there's a balance to be made here. The world's economy will recover or rebalance with enough time to react to current circumstances. It might even encourage greater use of renewables in Europe, better diversification of global food networks etc. The world isn't passive - where there's money to be made from changing circumstance, it will be made. On the other hand, will those summarily executed on the streets be unexecuted?




    Totally... Thomas Theiner did a great thread that has been retweeted by a number of US current and former generals and logisticians that predicted what might be deployed (prior to announcement) and outlined how they might be deployed. Their potential use by Ukraine places them kind of mid way between local and theatre wide tactical use... Certainly useful to push back Russian artillery, but perhaps more useful to use to target logistics hubs and rail assets that are currently out of reach - with more affect than could be achieved with limited stocks of mid range ballistic missiles. But also useful when used in tandem with artillery to target breakthrough attempts.

    It also looks now like they'll be getting both systems (Some from Germany/UK)
    I still dont see how are they going to push back Iskanders with a 500km range or Russian MLRS with longer range when theyre significantly outnumbered. Guided missiles are useful though the Iskander really seems much better (CEP of 2 meters which is very accurate) at the types of things you listed.

  16. #4316
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by z3n View Post
    I still dont see how are they going to push back Iskanders with a 500km range or Russian MLRS with longer range when theyre significantly outnumbered. Guided missiles are useful though the Iskander really seems much better (CEP of 2 meters which is very accurate) at the types of things you listed.
    I don't think they are there to push back Iskanders, nor in the numbers supplied are they there to duel MLRS - I don't think this is a threat that is possible to target at all. I think they're there to add an extra layer of firepower that reduces Russian forces ability to manoeuvre and resupply. I think as I described they would also provide a useful secondary role being responsive to urgent need - being able to quickly suppress localised attacks, or identified concentrations.

    But in the numbers we're seeing for delivery, they're there to supplement rather than to replace existing artillery. And to an extent, be used in lieu of airpower at ranges beyond artillery.
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  17. #4317
    Vanoi's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...es-2022-06-01/

    The US is planning to sell Ukraine armed Gray Eagle drones. The MQ-1C is the US army version of the Predator. Can fly up to 30 hours and carry up to 8 hellfire missiles. It's a significant leap in Ukraine's drone capabilities if they are able to aquire them

  18. #4318

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Vanoi View Post
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...es-2022-06-01/

    The US is planning to sell Ukraine armed Gray Eagle drones. The MQ-1C is the US army version of the Predator. Can fly up to 30 hours and carry up to 8 hellfire missiles. It's a significant leap in Ukraine's drone capabilities if they are able to aquire them
    If they bother using them. With only 4, it's likely they'll only use them for recon, and the U.S. drone will probably have the best drone optics in the entire theatre. Ukraine has been using the TB-2 as a spotter as well.

  19. #4319
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    If they bother using them. With only 4, it's likely they'll only use them for recon, and the U.S. drone will probably have the best drone optics in the entire theatre. Ukraine has been using the TB-2 as a spotter as well.
    I figured they would arm to to hit Russian logistics hubs or infrastructure behind enemy lines since the Gray Eagle can loiter around for so long. They need more than 4.

  20. #4320

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Strike drones are vastly overrated in general. There's a reason why the footage around them has continuously decreased as the war has gone on, to the point where it's been near non-existent in May. Well actually, there are many reasons, but either way.

    The real drone success story of this war is the small recon drone, and how proliferating them among your units vastly raises your situational awareness. Again, back to the basics, force structure and capabilities are what matter, fancy tech can only do so much on its own.

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