View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    65 65.00%
  • I support Russia fully.

    12 12.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 4.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    6 6.00%
  • Not sure.

    6 6.00%
  • I don't care.

    7 7.00%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #4281
    Mithradates's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    I don't believe that article was "pro-Russia". Much less "way too pro-Russia" as you said. That politico comment was not about this article anyway, it was about Trump during the Trump-era, when if you dared say that Trump is not Putin's devil lapdog you were an agent of the tiny Czar. We should be careful not to commit a similar mistake here. Just because an article doesn't go at length about how the brave Ukrainian democratic heroes are routing the evil Russian fascist orcs, doesn't mean the article is pro-Russia.
    Okay, You dont believe it is pro-Russia, I do.

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    BTW the Serhi Lapko quote comes from the Washington Post, the article I shared quotes that article directly. Just because sth doesn't "sound right", it doesn't mean it's not. The original article is here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...severodonetsk/
    I know, z3n posted it yesterday.

    If I had a car and was told that my comrade is wounded somewhere, I’d come anytime and get him,” said Lapko, who used his own beat-up car to travel from Lysychansk to the hotel.
    Khrus and his platoon, his commander said, have killed more than 50 Russian soldiers in close-up battles.
    ...
    no one showed Lapko’s men how to use the RPGs.
    I think they just want to go home, I understand that.

  2. #4282
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    So since you are aware this article comes from the Washington Post, why blame the national interest for quoting it? Is the Washington Post also pro-Russia? There is nothing wrong with questioning or even disbelieving sth a source says, the more you do that the better, but if you are going to dismiss a source just because "it doesn't sound right" according to what you want to hear, then that is a problem.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    I think they just want to go home, I understand that.
    The car comment had to do with the indifference of his commanders, who have taken the proper cars assigned to his company for their own use and don't come when their men need them. He was saying that if he had such a car and was asked to go, he would go. His car is obviously not up to par. Don't be so quick to dismiss them as "cowards" who wanted to desert. The whole sentence:
    Sometimes, the men have to carry an injured soldier on a stretcher as far as two miles on foot to find a vehicle, Lapko said. Two vehicles assigned to his company never arrived, he said, and are being used instead by people at military headquarters.

    “If I had a car and was told that my comrade is wounded somewhere, I’d come anytime and get him,” said Lapko, who used his own beat-up car to travel from Lysychansk to the hotel. “But I don’t have the necessary transport to get there.”

    Either way, it's getting tiresome having to defend any and all source, in case it dares not to be firmly pro-Ukrainian. So I'll stop here.
    Last edited by Alastor; May 30, 2022 at 10:48 AM.

  3. #4283
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    So since you are aware this article comes from the Washington Post, why blame the national interest for quoting it? Is the Washington Post also pro-Russia? There is nothing wrong with questioning or even disbelieving sth a source says, the more you do that the better, but if you are going to dismiss a source just because "it doesn't sound right" according to what you want to hear, then that is a problem.
    The car comment had to do with the indifference of his commanders, who have taken the proper cars assigned to his company for their own use and don't come when their men need them. He was saying that if he had such a car and was asked to go, he would go. His car is obviously not up to par. Don't be so quick to dismiss them as "cowards" who wanted to desert. The whole sentence:

    Either way, it's getting tiresome having to defend any and all source, in case it dares not to be firmly pro-Ukrainian. So I'll stop here.
    Im not blaming them. I had these "this sounds like something from RT" vibes while I read their articles, this one and another one about how NATO wouldnt benefit from Finland joining or something (Finland has the biggest artillery force in Europe btw) that is RT material.

    And those two dudes, okay I say it out, they are ting, they are deserters.

  4. #4284
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    Im not blaming them. I had these "this sounds like something from RT" vibes while I read their articles, this one and another one about how NATO wouldnt benefit from Finland joining or something (Finland has the biggest artillery force in Europe btw) that is RT material.

    And those two dudes, okay I say it out, they are ting, they are deserters.
    Ok, so the National Interest and the Washington Post are posting RT material. What's next? Should they be banned like RT was? Should all of them be banned until only pro-Ukrainian sources remain?

    Yes, it was clear that's what you thought of them, at least it's in the open now. But I would caution against such sweeping proclamations, they could be telling the truth, in fact it is rather likely that they are telling at least one part of the jigsaw that's the truth.

  5. #4285
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Ok, so the National Interest and the Washington Post are posting RT material. What's next? Should they be banned like RT was? Should all of them be banned until only pro-Ukrainian sources remain?

    Yes, it was clear that's what you thought of them, at least it's in the open now. But I would caution against such sweeping proclamations, they could be telling the truth, in fact it is rather likely that they are telling at least one part of the jigsaw that's the truth.
    Banning RT was stupid, I was actually surprised that the EU did that.

    The dudes story is all over the place, half an hour training then massacring the Russians then not knowing how to use an RPG then not having a car but having a car etc I dont buy it.

  6. #4286
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    Banning RT was stupid, I was actually surprised that the EU did that.

    The dudes story is all over the place, half an hour training then massacring the Russians then not knowing how to use an RPG then not having a car but having a car etc I dont buy it.
    It's not just one dude. It's two dudes (the commander Lapko and Khrus) plus a platoon. A frontline commmander also wouldn't say that unless his troops supported him, otherwise he would get shot accidently or the shot would be attributed to the "Russians".

    But Lapko and Khrus’s concerns were echoed recently by a platoon of the 115th Brigade 3rd Battalion, based nearby in the besieged city of Severodonetsk. In a video uploaded to Telegram on May 24, and confirmed as authentic by an aide to Haidai, volunteers said they will no longer fight because they lacked proper weapons, rear support and military leadership
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Ok, so the National Interest
    I would not call the National Interest pro Russian out of hand. The page you linked to is very much taking a inevitable Russian victory with some cherry picking, Ukraine is loosing by what facts it chooses to relate and work into its narrative. I have doubts about any report from the LPR and a competent story would have also cited what the Ukraine ministry of defense says. ISW does not seem to believe an encirclement has happened yet.

    https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...essment-may-29

    The story also sidesteps entirely Ukrainian attacks in the south.

    "The invading Russian forces, buoyed by a slate of logistical, numerical, and qualitative advantages, are forging ahead with their strategy of encircling pockets of Ukrainian troops while choking off major Ukrainian-held cities from supplies and reinforcements."

    I grant numerical, not seeing the other advantages. What major cities aside from ones seized in the opening days of the war? Severodonetsk is a largish town but it at the far end of a salient - the very far end. Even Ukraine abandons it we are talking some strategic victory like a drive from Izyum to Horlivica trapping massive number of Ukrainian force or even Popasna to Yampil. In fact to grind out it advances in and around Severodonetsk Russia seems to have to but on hold any real attempts to move out of Izyum.
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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

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  8. #4288
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I grant numerical, not seeing the other advantages. What major cities aside from ones seized in the opening days of the war? Severodonetsk is a largish town but it at the far end of a salient - the very far end. Even Ukraine abandons it we are talking some strategic victory like a drive from Izyum to Horlivica trapping massive number of Ukrainian force or even Popasna to Yampil. In fact to grind out it advances in and around Severodonetsk Russia seems to have to but on hold any real attempts to move out of Izyum.
    Severodonetsk is a big loss considering the reframed reduced scope of the conflict. More importantly, it is a political victory for Putin - a named town that was the focus of fighting that was lost in 2014 and couldn't be regained before Minsk. A retreat to 'easier to defend' positions is still a retreat, no matter how euphemistically it is announced.

    What this means in the longer term is up for debate. Territory has been bouncing back and forth around Popasna, so the flanks of this caldron are not stable. Many pundits were predicting that Russia would force it's way to take control of much of the Donbas over the next few weeks before they culminate, and there's not a lot Ukraine can do about it in the short term other than make the gains expensive.

    The question will be what happens when Russia culminates with a tactically muddy or fluid situation still occurring. Ukraine aren't supplying their frontline forces in the East adequately - that much is clear from stories listed above. And they're giving ground when at risk of being overrun. But whether this is a deliberate low cost approach so as to not bleed out newly acquired Western resources before they can be used at scale, or whether they're being prevented from resupply by Russian air/fires is up for debate. My inkling is that they're holding back for a counter offensive in the summer - which is dangerous because their own forces are starting to complain.
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  9. #4289

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Severodonetsk is a big loss considering the reframed reduced scope of the conflict. More importantly, it is a political victory for Putin - a named town that was the focus of fighting that was lost in 2014 and couldn't be regained before Minsk. A retreat to 'easier to defend' positions is still a retreat, no matter how euphemistically it is announced.

    What this means in the longer term is up for debate. Territory has been bouncing back and forth around Popasna, so the flanks of this caldron are not stable. Many pundits were predicting that Russia would force it's way to take control of much of the Donbas over the next few weeks before they culminate, and there's not a lot Ukraine can do about it in the short term other than make the gains expensive.

    The question will be what happens when Russia culminates with a tactically muddy or fluid situation still occurring. Ukraine aren't supplying their frontline forces in the East adequately - that much is clear from stories listed above. And they're giving ground when at risk of being overrun. But whether this is a deliberate low cost approach so as to not bleed out newly acquired Western resources before they can be used at scale, or whether they're being prevented from resupply by Russian air/fires is up for debate. My inkling is that they're holding back for a counter offensive in the summer - which is dangerous because their own forces are starting to complain.
    That would seem to suggest that the Russians could manage to occupy the entire Donbass before their offensive culminates, but they probably won't be able to push much further than that (they're moving very slowly).
    The real question will then be what happens during the Ukrainian summer offensive. If the Russians are able to hold their front effectively, then there will probably be an opening for a Korea-style ceasefire line arrangement. On the other hand, if they can't, then the Russians may well get pushed back to near the pre-Feb 24 positions.

  10. #4290
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    That would seem to suggest that the Russians could manage to occupy the entire Donbass before their offensive culminates, but they probably won't be able to push much further than that (they're moving very slowly).
    The real question will then be what happens during the Ukrainian summer offensive. If the Russians are able to hold their front effectively, then there will probably be an opening for a Korea-style ceasefire line arrangement. On the other hand, if they can't, then the Russians may well get pushed back to near the pre-Feb 24 positions.
    I'm not suggesting that Russia will succeed in taking all the Donbas, but they have already taken enough of it for them to consider it a tactical victory, and they will take more, even if not much and even if it ends up a strategic catastrophe in the long term.

    The story that keeps playing in my head now is the last year of WW1 in the West. When Germany threw everything they had, which ended up being too much to replace once they culminated. With regards to Korea... that only stabilised because of Chinese involvement. The North had collapsed entirely. Russia doesn't have any China to pump a million troops into the battle. Once they culminate they're going to be hard pressed. Only then we'll see what Ukraine has left in the tank.
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  11. #4291
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    Severodonetsk is a big loss considering the reframed reduced scope of the conflict. More importantly, it is a political victory for Putin - a named town that was the focus of fighting that was lost in 2014 and couldn't be regained before Minsk. A retreat to 'easier to defend' positions is still a retreat, no matter how euphemistically it is announced.
    Its a loss. But problematically Russia has defaulted to grinding wins via artillery. So its gain is a wreak. Second it does seem to have required stripping it forces from other vectors of advance as those have gone cold (on its new Version three of what victory is)

    What this means in the longer term is up for debate. Territory has been bouncing back and forth around Popasna, so the flanks of this caldron are not stable. Many pundits were predicting that Russia would force it's way to take control of much of the Donbas over the next few weeks before they culminate, and there's not a lot Ukraine can do about it in the short term other than make the gains expensive.
    Agree a lot will depend on how much cost Russia is paying for the attack Severodonetsk. If the Ukraine are forced out but remain in good order and say Russia can't turn and make progress out of Izyum or push back against Ukrainian efforts in the south or around Kharkiv that would seem to set the stage for maybe they (Russians) spent too much and than we wait and see who can put togather force some new large attack first.

    The question will be what happens when Russia culminates with a tactically muddy or fluid situation still occurring. Ukraine aren't supplying their frontline forces in the East adequately - that much is clear from stories listed above. And they're giving ground when at risk of being overrun. But whether this is a deliberate low cost approach so as to not bleed out newly acquired Western resources before they can be used at scale, or whether they're being prevented from resupply by Russian air/fires is up for debate. My inkling is that they're holding back for a counter offensive in the summer - which is dangerous because their own forces are starting to complain.
    All armies are going to complain(*). But I agree Ukraine is taking a bit a risk in probably leaving some units hung out to dry facing Russia's default to artillery first fighting in order to not just drip in NATO gear and given the recent US and UK pledges that could be a valid choice. That is waiting till they bring reequipped formation into play on a large scale. I Mean the Polish and other Warsaw pact heavy equipment dumps are really just now sort reaching Ukraine in volume. And for example SP artillery altogether from NATO is still 12+18+12+ 10 etc. That s enough if concentrated to back a well planed offensive thrust but likely not more than one unless to want to use the Russian playbook send to little to too many places.

    *Probably more since really this is basically a war nobody has fought since Korea. A peer war with realistically given western backing for Ukraine is an even playing field. And while there is much amusement at Russia's logistical short comings and equipment failures... the west should be careful of its Schadenfreude. I have no doubt say the M1A1SEP3 is very much superior and more survivable than anything Russia is using (unless find a way to suddenly make the T14). But how many is/was the US planning? Maybe 200? after that the US has sure a nominal ~8000. But how fast can the the US put any of the ~35000 of those in storage into service? Only got one production plant and one set of two depot sites that repair and refit. How many countries are like Germany with the nominal Gepard donation... err yes well we used to ammo for it but it seems well you know it was just cheaper to count as in storage and look good.
    Last edited by conon394; May 31, 2022 at 11:00 AM.
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    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  12. #4292

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Been a while.

    Northern Front

    The Kharkiv offensive stalled out a few weeks ago, Ukraine re-deployed most troops in other areas. Russia has been grinding some of their losses here back under their control.

    This is the latest Russian claimed map.

    Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 


    Donbass AO

    Russia is effectively rotating troops. They are also taking turns with sustaining offensive action. I.E., if there is an offensive out of Popasna, when it stops, there will be an offensive out of Izyum or Donetsk. This effectively keeps pressure on Ukranian forces pinned in the Donbass AO.

    Russia's breakout of Popasna since mid-May has been effective. They have occupied part of the Bakhmut-Lysichansk highway, rendering this pathway unusable. Routes in an out of the salient still exist, but they are all well within the range of Russian artillery. Further South, Svetlodarsk has largely fallen without a big fight.

    The Izyum axis is currently centered around Liman. Ukrainian forces fled the city after fiercely fighting for a few days. Russians purposely left an "escape" route open to encourage Ukrainian military forces to exit the city, lest the path be closed off completely. Russians claim that they closed the path anyway, to catch the soldiers retreating. I cannot verify that claim and I am skeptical of boisterous Russian claims for obvious reasons. Nevertheless, it is highly likely that some retreating units were indeed captured, though that numbers is probably very small.

    Either way, the capture of Liman was swift and possibly suggests Russia's new-found expertise with urban warfare. One thing people overlook with Mariupol, is that the siege period was over relatively quickly. The "mop-up" took a long time due to a small number of Russian units committed. It was clear that Russia favored a very systematic approach that minimized casualties and manpower requirements. Speed was not a major factor. Hence why Azovstal was surrounded for several weeks afterwards. At least that's what Kofman and Rob Lee suggested when this subject came up on a video conference a couple weeks ago. This "expertise" has reportedly transferred over to Russia's other units as they've taken key concepts out of that siege and applied them to other cities. The capture of Liman was lightning quick, Ukraine's willingness to retreat here has certainly helped, but the assault itself was definitely competently executed.

    With the Fall of Liman, the entire northern side of the Donetsk river is now firmly under Russian control. Russia does not need to necessarily force a crossing, as they already control a major crossing point at Izyum, and they are likely going to seize Lysichansk. The next few objectives in the Donbass AO is thus the destruction of the Severodonetsk salient, the capture and crossing of the Bakhmut valley, and then, perhaps, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.

    Kherson AO

    Kherson Oblast has been under Russia's full control for roughly 3-4 weeks now. Reportedly, Ukraine has gathered up to 30 Battalions to reclaim this area. The first two attacks were battalion sized in the area of Davidy Brod, and a couple other towns that I don't know the name of in English. Either way, these offensives have been reportedly crushed, and I'm not getting a lot of chatter from Ukrainian channels about any real offensive success, so I am inclined to believe Russian claims.

    However, these are small attacks, the Ukrainian offensive on Kherson has not really started at all. I would expect at least a massive artillery barrage before a major offensive. A Brusilov treatment, so to say. This hasn't happened yet. 30 Battalions is a big force, that's 18-26,000 troops and a lot of armor. Moreover, this equipment will be fresh and Western-supplied. Ukraine has the force concentration needed for a breakthrough. Russia's defenses consist of... maybe 10-14 confirmed BTGs? Either way, VERY ROUGHLY, some 10,000 troops. These troops have seen combat for 30-45 days straight. They've taken losses (albeit light ones). However, they've been dug in for 3 weeks and expecting a major attack. This will be the first time where Ukraine is the attacker and Russia is the Defender.

    As you can see, the 3:1 adage of Attackerefender here is met. Moreover, this ratio will only increase due to Ukraine being the attacker, and therefore, having their choice of the battlefield and time of the attack. Local superiority can be easily achieved here. I am expecting an assault on the Northern half of Kherson Oblast, to throw the Russian forces back across the river. Then, an offensive to force Russian forces back into Kherson, before finally, besieging and taking the settlement. The time span for this operation could be weeks if not months, so don't be in too much of a hurry.

  13. #4293
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    As you can see, the 3:1 adage of Attackerefender here is met. Moreover, this ratio will only increase due to Ukraine being the attacker, and therefore, having their choice of the battlefield and time of the attack. Local superiority can be easily achieved here. I am expecting an assault on the Northern half of Kherson Oblast, to throw the Russian forces back across the river. Then, an offensive to force Russian forces back into Kherson, before finally, besieging and taking the settlement. The time span for this operation could be weeks if not months, so don't be in too much of a hurry.
    There has been a few videos published of Ukrainian forces advancing, but you're right, it has gone dark so who knows what's happening there. Ukraine do seem to be tempering their attacks - nibbling more than biting. Either way... it seems to have petered out or been restricted to a local operation.

    The White House has made more announcements today. A further $700m aid package... confirmation that rocket systems are definitely on the way (coming from existing active US stocks currently being replaced by upgraded systems). I'd hesitate to call them a game changer, but systems that can fire 5 times the speed of Russian systems, with significantly more accuracy and range - They are the kinds of weapons that would reduce the cost of a Kherson offensive significantly and very much change the tactical reality for Russian forces defending. But this will take time to come online and careful use by relatively green troops - but today's announcement, and Biden's guest essay in the NYT also confirmed that the US will not pressure Ukraine to cede land for peace, and that they see principles at stake.

    Part of me feels like in the long term, Kherson is likely a blocking or holding operation at scale - That plans for a Kherson's people's republic are the psy-ops part of this blocking operation. Capture of Kherson by Ukraine would be a morale boost... but that just leaves them with the question of what to do about that giant river - it's almost a dead end operation.
    Last edited by antaeus; May 31, 2022 at 07:45 PM.
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  14. #4294

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Its good that we are sending military aid, but additional 100,000 cap for Ukrainian refugees is an utter joke. The process itself is a joke. I can only hope that this war will finally quash some of the anti-immigrant and anti-refugee sentiment in this country. Aid that really matters is humanitarian and economic aid.

  15. #4295
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    BERLIN (Reuters) - Germany will supply Ukraine with the IRIS-T medium-range surface-to-air defence system, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, following pleas from Kyiv as well as German opposition parties to step up heavy weapons deliveries to the country.

    Germany to Send IRIS-T Air Defence System to Ukraine -Scholz | World News | US News

    Within the MEADS program, the German Air Force plans to integrate a surface-launched (SL) radar-guided version of the missile, called IRIS-T SL. It has a pointed nose, unlike the regular IRIS-T, with a jettisonable drag-reducing nose cone.[17][18] It is built in two variants, IRIS-T SLS (short-range) and IRIS-T SLM (medium range); IRIS-T SLX (long range) variant is in development as of April 2022.[19] The IRIS-T SL qualification tests were completed during January 2015 at the Denel Overberg Test Range in South Africa.[20] Operational testing of IRIS-T SLM was completed in January 2022.

    IRIS-T - Wikipedia

    Germany has also agreed to a Ringtausch with Greece:Germany announces new deal with Greece to send tanks to Ukraine

    Berlin has already agreed a similar tank swap deal with Prague and says it’s working to implement one with Warsaw as well after criticism.

    Germany will help get Soviet-era tanks from Greece to Ukraine by sending Athens modern German vehicles as a replacement, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced Tuesday.
    Scholz told reporters at the end of a two-day European Council meeting of EU leaders in Brussels that he had spoken to Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis to enable such a tank swap, also known as a Ringtausch in German.
    “This will now be discussed in very concrete terms between the defense ministries [of both countries] and can then also be implemented quickly,” the chancellor said.
    Germany already implemented such a Ringtausch with the Czech Republic but has faced criticism from Poland for not yet implementing a similar arrangement with Warsaw.

    Scholz had proposed the tank swap scheme in April as an alternative to Germany directly sending Ukraine its more modern Western tanks like the Leopard or the Marder infantry fighting vehicle — something the chancellor has avoided doing so far as he fears it could drag NATO into Russia’s war with Ukraine. Under the Ringtausch scheme, countries that still have Soviet-era gear like the T-72 battle tank or the BMP infantry fighting vehicle can send them to Ukraine and receive more modern German tanks as replacements.
    This allows Western countries to maintain a certain level of deniability because those Soviet-era tanks are identical to the ones Ukraine uses, meaning it’s harder for Russia to argue that NATO is getting involved in the war by sending its top gear to Kyiv.
    Meanwhile, German officials argue that the tank swap is advantageous for Kyiv because Ukraine will get the same tank models its soldiers and mechanics are already familiar with, while NATO partners like Greece can upgrade their military gear with the newer German tanks.
    Scholz did not say what kind of Soviet-era tanks Greece would send to Ukraine. But in a press release, the Greek defense ministry said it would send BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine and receive “an equal number” of German Marder infantry fighting vehicles in exchange, without saying how many tanks are involved in the agreement.

    The Greek defense ministry also mentioned that, ironically, the vehicles being sent to Ukraine are “of East German origin” and sent to Greece in 1994 — meaning that, indirectly, Scholz is sending vehicles of German background to Ukraine.

    The deal didn’t please everyone in Greece. The country’s main opposition party, Syriza, quickly blasted the government over the deal — a reflection of the tepid public support for sending weapons to Ukraine.

    “The government must stop making decisions in secret on critical national issues,” Syriza said in a statement. “Even more so when the majority of the Greek people are opposed to choices that pose risks to the country’s security and are contrary to our national interests.”

    Under Germany’s deal with Prague, the Czech Republic is set to receive 14 Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks and one Leopard tank recovery vehicle in exchange for sending Soviet tanks to Ukraine.
    Berlin appears to be struggling to implement a similar exchange with Poland, however. Last week, Polish President Andrzej Duda accused Scholz’s government of breaking its word on delivering the desired German tanks to Warsaw.
    Scholz said Tuesday that he had talked to Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki during this week’s EU summit “about the question of how we can advance such good agreements also with Poland, as we did with the Czech Republic and now also soon with Greece, and there are also some other countries in the pipeline.”
    “We both want this to happen in the best possible cooperation,” Scholz said.

    Germany announces new deal with Greece to send tanks to Ukraine – POLITICO
    Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; June 01, 2022 at 04:04 AM.
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  16. #4296
    antaeus's Avatar Cool and normal
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Love Mountain View Post
    Its good that we are sending military aid, but additional 100,000 cap for Ukrainian refugees is an utter joke. The process itself is a joke. I can only hope that this war will finally quash some of the anti-immigrant and anti-refugee sentiment in this country. Aid that really matters is humanitarian and economic aid.
    Yeah... too much of a political hot potato. I think if any of that cash ends up in Poland or Slovakia or Moldova, It would do more good.
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  17. #4297
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Tribunus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Part of me feels like in the long term, Kherson is likely a blocking or holding operation at scale - That plans for a Kherson's people's republic are the psy-ops part of this blocking operation. Capture of Kherson by Ukraine would be a morale boost... but that just leaves them with the question of what to do about that giant river - it's almost a dead end operation.
    But it would prevent, that Russia can block the Dnepr for transportation of goods.
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  18. #4298
    z3n's Avatar State of Mind
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    There has been a few videos published of Ukrainian forces advancing, but you're right, it has gone dark so who knows what's happening there. Ukraine do seem to be tempering their attacks - nibbling more than biting. Either way... it seems to have petered out or been restricted to a local operation.

    The White House has made more announcements today. A further $700m aid package... confirmation that rocket systems are definitely on the way (coming from existing active US stocks currently being replaced by upgraded systems). I'd hesitate to call them a game changer, but systems that can fire 5 times the speed of Russian systems, with significantly more accuracy and range - They are the kinds of weapons that would reduce the cost of a Kherson offensive significantly and very much change the tactical reality for Russian forces defending. But this will take time to come online and careful use by relatively green troops - but today's announcement, and Biden's guest essay in the NYT also confirmed that the US will not pressure Ukraine to cede land for peace, and that they see principles at stake.

    Part of me feels like in the long term, Kherson is likely a blocking or holding operation at scale - That plans for a Kherson's people's republic are the psy-ops part of this blocking operation. Capture of Kherson by Ukraine would be a morale boost... but that just leaves them with the question of what to do about that giant river - it's almost a dead end operation.
    Not sure where you're getting this from? American MLRS ammo Ukraine will get and HIMARS rate of fire isn't really even the point of it, they launch guided missiles and aren't meant to bombard. They're more like an Iskander missile with significantly less range (80km~) but more numbers. It's more of a precision weapon since their weak point is actually bombardment, the MLRS that Russia uses is more for bombardment with a 90-120km range unless we are talking about Iskanders with 500km+ in reach.


    How did these rocket and artillery bomblets perform in combat?

    In many cases, they failed to work as advertised. They were supposed to be able to destroy Soviet armored vehicles, with small armor-piercing warheads. But the attack on the First Armored Unit shows that the DPICMs not only failed to destroy Bradley Fighting Vehicles; they also failed to destroy the troop’s unarmored Chevrolet S.U.V.s — even those that took more than one direct hit.

    These weapons had a much more pernicious effect, though, that was barely mentioned in the Army’s 1993 history. American howitzers fired nearly 27,450 cluster shells in the war, and batteries fired more than 17,000 submunition-loaded rockets. In all, those munitions disgorged 13.7 million DPICM grenades on Iraq and Kuwait. Pentagon documents estimate that between 10 and 20 percent or more likely failed to explode on impact, littering the battlefield with highly dangerous duds that would still explode if disturbed
    Last edited by z3n; June 01, 2022 at 09:22 AM.
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  19. #4299
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    At least 231 children killed in Russian attacks so far: Ukraine

    All lives are precious, but it seems that some lives are more valuable than others,

    Razing the Truth About Sanctions Against Iraq - Geneva

    Especially the downplaying of the calamitous impact of the sanctions on hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqi children is repugnant. To reiterate a statement made by Ambassador Agam Hasmy of Malaysia at the UN Security Council in 2000: “How ironic is it that the same policy that is supposed to disarm Iraq of its weapons of mass destruction has itself become a weapon of mass destruction!”

    The crimes committed against the Iraqi civilian population under the brutal and uncompromising sanctions regime must finally be addressed and all perpetrators must be held accountable.
    Have the Afghan people been forgotten? - Responsible Statecraft.
    Those familiar with the U.S. embargo against Iraq in the 1990s know the devastation wrought by that cynical policy, with an estimated 500,000 Iraqi children perishing due to a lack of food and essential supplies that the nation was unable to import.
    The near-future outlook for Afghans isn’t very bright, either
    .
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  20. #4300
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    In many cases, they failed to work as advertised. They were supposed to be able to destroy Soviet armored vehicles, with small armor-piercing warheads. But the attack on the First Armored Unit shows that the DPICMs not only failed to destroy Bradley Fighting Vehicles; they also failed to destroy the troop’s unarmored Chevrolet S.U.V.s — even those that took more than one direct hit.

    The dude rate seems normal. Its not Russia looks to also not a have high dud rate in it rocket systems as well. I think the key think is neither side right now gives a damn about long term consequences like you do when fighting a major for fo big time goals. A 10-20 percent failure rate in the cluster munition is fairly low.

    Also you kinda passed over the terrain specif reasons the rate may have been high.

    Third you ignoring the context of the story. The cluster munition is deemed a failure because of the non exploded rate something the US fighting non existential wars and not wanting lots stories about dead Iraqi children digging one up was able to care about.

    From a Ukrainian perspective in the now - It weapon that adds capabilities and critically the US has a crap ton of ammo in storage for them... Ukraine does not ban cluster munitions.
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