View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

Voters
100. You may not vote on this poll
  • I support Ukraine fully.

    65 65.00%
  • I support Russia fully.

    12 12.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 4.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    6 6.00%
  • Not sure.

    6 6.00%
  • I don't care.

    7 7.00%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #4201
    Praeses
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Australia
    Posts
    7,754

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    The present situation at least has the advantage that it is clear who has the weapons.
    Yes its the guy who keeps hinting he's going to use them.

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    If Russian nuclear weapons got on the black market it would be a rather difficult situation.
    That would be disastrous. That said Putin's invasion being defeated does not lead directly to this scenario. There are scenarios where Putin wins and sels nukes too, equally unlikely.

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    That isn't quite what I meant. What I meant was that if the Russian public were genuinely suffering as a consequence of Western economic sanctions, then it may very well lead to someone taking power who was willing to see Russia destroyed if America and Europe were also destroyed (which doesn't appear true of Putin).
    I disagree, he is literally plundering neighbouring countries under his nuclear umbrella. Some Serb aligned forces used this method in their crime ridden Balkan wars too.

    I mean ploughing into Ukraine only to have his arse handed to him is pretty suicidal, or incompetent. I do not advocate regime change in Russia as a policy setting, but we should not avoid resisting Russian expansionism because of the remote possibility of a change of leaders, and that somehow comes up with someone worse than Putin.

    There are sensible sounding parts to your argument but the logic gaps are huge. Putin is a present risk, a repeat offender. I don't think the West can force Ukraine to fold just because there's imaginary futures where a Russian leader behaves worse, there isn't much lower such a person could go.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  2. #4202
    Mithradates's Avatar Campidoctor
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    1,965

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    And I have also mentioned the relevant fact that most Europeans do not want to send weapons to Ukraine, as well as the fact that without Russia, there will never be a stability pact for Europe.
    You mean this survey?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    The article quoted below addresses the imperative need, the importance of the stability to Europe in the long run, and it also mentions (and this is not an irrelevant fact, which cannot be ignored) that a recent survey of public opinion - Link (April 2022) - across 27 Western countries found (see summary of the findings, first page) that on average only 36% support their country providing weapons to the Ukrainian military in the conflict.
    Nope, most Europeans do want to send weapons to Ukraine:
    page 13
    "[My country] should provide weapons such as guns and anti-tank weapons to the Ukrainian military"

    Netherlands 65%
    Great Britain 63%
    Sweden 61%

    Canada 58%
    Poland 58%
    Germany 55%
    France 53%

    Australia 50%
    Spain 46%
    Belgium 44%

    South Korea 39%
    India 38%
    Italy 32%
    Japan 25%
    South Africa 25%
    Brazil 24%
    Saudi Arabia 22%
    Chile 21%
    Turkey 19%
    Israel 18%
    Malaysia 18%
    Colombia 17%
    Hungary 15%
    Mexico 15%
    Argentina 14%
    Peru 13%

  3. #4203
    alhoon's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Chania, Greece
    Posts
    23,690

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Reminder: According to mudpit rules you should try to make your posts impersonal. The thread is about Russia, USA and Ukraine in the recent invasion. While discussing the opinions stated by a poster is fine, posts should be impersonal, so please focus on mentioning the subject and arguments a poster makes.
    Future posts that remain too personal and focus on the poster and not the post will be deleted.
    alhoon is not a member of the infamous Hoons: a (fictional) nazi-sympathizer KKK clan. Of course, no Hoon would openly admit affiliation to the uninitiated.
    "Angry Uncle Gordon" describes me well.
    _______________________________________________________
    Beta-tester for Darthmod Empire, the default modification for Empire Total War that does not ask for your money behind patreon.
    Developer of Causa Belli submod for Darthmod, headed by Hammeredalways and a ton of other people.
    Developer of LtC: Random maps submod for Lands to Conquer (that brings a multitude of random maps and other features).

  4. #4204
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
    Patrician Artifex

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Netherlands
    Posts
    10,434

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Please quote me.
    Not a chance. Oh, wait .....
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  5. #4205

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    While Russians are making fierce offensives in Eastern Donbass with some sucess,
    Seems T-62 tanks is what the Russian AF are mostly using now. More seen than the T-74s and T-80s and T-90s.
    This is at least a sign of some fatigue on the mechanized cavalry side.

    Also reports of them setting a third line of defense in conquered areas. While there is an ambiguity if they russian AF are on the offensive or defensive, it's objective that the settings are that of a protracted war.
    Last edited by fkizz; May 27, 2022 at 06:14 AM.
    It will be seen that, as used, the word ‘Fascism’ is almost entirely meaningless. In conversation, of course, it is used even more wildly than in print. I have heard it applied to farmers, shopkeepers, Social Credit, corporal punishment, fox-hunting, bull-fighting, the 1922 Committee, the 1941 Committee, Kipling, Gandhi, Chiang Kai-Shek, homosexuality, Priestley's broadcasts, Youth Hostels, astrology, women, dogs and I do not know what else.

    -George Orwell

  6. #4206
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Colfax WA, neat I have a barn and 49 acres - I have 2 horses, 15 chickens - but no more pigs
    Posts
    15,119

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    That’s my opinion, is also the opinion of political scientists, military experts, and major European leaders:
    I believe you dropped the word some out of that sentence.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  7. #4207
    Alastor's Avatar Campidoctor
    Join Date
    May 2012
    Location
    Not home
    Posts
    1,879

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    An interesting article discussing propaganda: https://dissidentvoice.org/2022/05/t...tist-rhetoric/

  8. #4208
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
    Citizen

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    12,484

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    According to a Ukrainian scholar, Denys Kiryukhin,
    “For a part of the Russian-speaking population of the country, it is not a problem to give up Russian…their preference to speak Russian does not coincide with their (ideological) image of a citizen of the Ukrainian state...they are aware of their own deficiency and inadequacy
    Roots and Features of Modern Ukrainian National Identity and Nationalism.

    They are aware of their own deficiency and inadequacy”. I question whether most American citizens agree with this reasoning. In the south of Ukraine, we are also faced with a double war of secession and a double nationalism. The wars of secession, throughout history, have been the most brutal, and the most difficult to solve. For an independent and structured analysis of the situation in Ukraine, we must try to understand its genesis and the motivations that led to the military conflict.
    ----
    Meanwhile, BMW board member Milan Nedeljkovic tells Reuters that “our industry accounts for about 37% of natural gas consumption in Germany” which will sink without Russian gas supplies. BMW exploring energy investments to reduce dependence

    Not just BMW but the entire sector would come to a standstill.
    ----

    US preparing to approve long-range rocket system for Ukraine

    the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS. The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers…the Biden administration waivered for weeks, however, on whether to send the systems, amid concerns raised within the National Security Council that Ukraine could use the systems to carry out offensive attacks inside Russia.

    Russia warns West against providing Ukraine long-range ...
    Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says supplying arms capable of hitting Russian territory would be a step towards ‘unacceptable escalation
    ----
    Debate
    Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University,

    I would agree with Professor Mearsheimer that there has been a change in the Biden administration. They have recognized that the only way to stop Vladimir Putin is not through sanctions, not through trying to appeal to the Russian people, but it's by defeating Russia on the battlefield as fast as possible.
    I don't think we should be deterred by this fear that he's going to reach for nuclear weapons. We cannot rule it out. I'm not dismissing it. But I also think that the objective that we have right now, the stakes are so high.
    And we're fighting here to stop Vladimir Putin to essentially reasserting a sphere of influence system, which is what we put to bed after the end of World War II.
    John Mearsheimer


    Well, I think it's very important to understand that, if he were to use nuclear weapons, he would use them, in all likelihood, in Western Ukraine.
    And there are no NATO or American forces in Western Ukraine. So he would not be attacking us. He would be using those weapons in Ukraine. And the question is, what do we do then? And I'm not sure what we would do then. Would we use nuclear weapons? Would we then get dragged into the war?
    When Professor Farkas talks about the consequences of this for the world order, I'm more worried about the consequences if we ended up getting hit with nuclear weapons.
    I mean, we want to remember what President Kennedy did during the Cuban Missile Crisis. He was in a similar situation. What he did was, he tried to dampen the conflict. He tried to work out some sort of deal with Khrushchev, so we could both avoid getting vaporized.
    What the Biden administration is doing is exactly the opposite. It's upping the ante. It's putting Putin in a position where he might very well use nuclear weapons. Again, I think this is remarkably foolish.
    The near future will tell who is right.

    ---
    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    You mean this survey?
    Nope
    Nope? are you saying that the summary of the findings in the first page is wrong? How can you deny what is written there? It says: "On average across 27 countries: 36% support their country providing weapons to the Ukrainian military in the conflict"
    Click on the link: voilà!
    Last edited by Ludicus; May 27, 2022 at 12:06 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  9. #4209
    AqD's Avatar 。◕‿◕。
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    🏡🐰🐿️🐴🌳
    Posts
    10,822

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by antaeus View Post
    When the Soviet Union fragmented, outside powers helped secure the nukes, and negotiate their centralisation.

    Of course, I'm not an advocate of this kind of scenario, but I don't think it is worst case.
    They wont need to negotiate because we can just buy them on bidding market. Surely corrupted officers and warlords would be happy to exchange nukes with gold and weapons they can actually use in a civil war. And we have plenty of both.

    Meanwhile we can resume missile defense system.

  10. #4210
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
    Citizen

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    12,484

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    According to the Institute of War, May 26, 2022
    Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days…Russian forces have now taken control of over 95% of Luhansk Oblast and will likely continue efforts to complete the capture of Severodonetsk in the coming days
    Ukrainians "Eager To Talk To Putin But...": President Zelensky

    Russia-Ukraine war: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday said the country has to face the reality that talks with Russia will likely be necessary to end the war… there are things to discuss with the Russian leader. I'm not telling you that to me our people are eager to talk to him, but we have to face the realities of what we are living through," Zelenskiy said
    The promised long-range missiles will make him change his mind, while the human and material devastation of Ukraine continues.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  11. #4211
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    4,147

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by AqD View Post
    They wont need to negotiate because we can just buy them on bidding market. Surely corrupted officers and warlords would be happy to exchange nukes with gold and weapons they can actually use in a civil war. And we have plenty of both.

    Meanwhile we can resume missile defense system.
    Nobody wants to face an age of nuclear terrorism, so Russia needs to be disarmed piece by piece and we will all say "thank you" for each and every item we receive and can take away and dismantle. If that it is all that it takes to get that threat out of the calculation then what is the problem. We will have to buy that rusted, rotten, toxic crap away from them at really, really high prices. Now where to store it? How to destroy it? There should be already a dismantling industry with IPO's to speculate on.

  12. #4212
    Mithradates's Avatar Campidoctor
    Join Date
    Nov 2006
    Location
    Hungary
    Posts
    1,965

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Nope? are you saying that the summary of the findings in the first page is wrong? How can you deny what is written there? It says: "On average across 27 countries: 36% support their country providing weapons to the Ukrainian military in the conflict"
    Click on the link: voilà!
    ???

    Dude, YOU should click on the link and read more than just the first page so you would know that those 27 countries are NOT the EU, those are random countries like Argentina, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Malaysia etc.
    I literally posted the relevant data, out of the top 10 countries in that survey who want to support Ukraine with weapons, 8 of them are European countries.
    Europeans do want to send weapons to Ukraine.

  13. #4213
    z3n's Avatar State of Mind
    Patrician Artifex

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Posts
    4,610

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    An interesting article discussing propaganda: https://dissidentvoice.org/2022/05/t...tist-rhetoric/
    I don't think the western population is properly conditioned for that article, its certainly an interesting read though. Probably each of their first impressions ever as a young boy or girl about Russia was that it was a scary bad enemy.


    The reverse of course for eastern populations is the exact same. Hence why eastern European countries are generally more accepting of Russia than western. Given the recent MLRS situation this becomes even more clear, it's easy to understand why this is such a red line for Russia, as the "fires" in Russia would probably become open attacks via MLRS instead of "karma". If that does occur, western Ukraine wouldn't just face a punitive raid or effort to replace the government, they'd probably receive a so-called righteous bombardment of tactical nukes. Similar to how USA reacted to 9/11 (a massive overreaction).
    The AI Workshop Creator
    Europa Barbaroum II AI/Game Mechanics Developer
    The Northern Crusades Lead Developer
    Classical Age Total War Retired Lead Developer
    Rome: Total Realism Animation Developer
    RTW Workshop Assistance MTW2 AI Tutorial & Assistance
    Broken Crescent Submod (M2TW)/IB VGR Submod (BI)/Animation (RTW/BI/ALX)/TATW PCP Submod (M2TW)/TATW DaC Submod (M2TW)/DeI Submod (TWR2)/SS6.4 Northern European UI Mod (M2TW)

  14. #4214
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    4,147

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    The reverse of course for eastern populations is the exact same. Hence why eastern European countries are generally more accepting of Russia than western.
    Go and try to explain that to them.

  15. #4215
    AqD's Avatar 。◕‿◕。
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    🏡🐰🐿️🐴🌳
    Posts
    10,822

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by swabian View Post
    We will have to buy that rusted, rotten, toxic crap away from them at really, really high prices. Now where to store it? How to destroy it? There should be already a dismantling industry with IPO's to speculate on.
    It will be a very small price considering Russia's nukes is the only threat to NATO and European defense.

    And we can stock them in preparation against China.

  16. #4216
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    4,147

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by AqD View Post
    It will be a very small price considering Russia's nukes is the only threat to NATO and European defense.

    And we can stock them in preparation against China.
    The plutonium. It is only about the plutonium. Everything else can be destroyed/recycled or used for civilian purposes.

    China has a few hundred ICBM's, it's not a nuclear threat.

  17. #4217
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Colfax WA, neat I have a barn and 49 acres - I have 2 horses, 15 chickens - but no more pigs
    Posts
    15,119

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    What the Biden administration is doing is exactly the opposite. It's upping the ante. It's putting Putin in a position where he might very well use nuclear weapons. Again, I think this is remarkably foolish.
    Last I checked Putin is the one who put himself in the position by rolling violations of Ukrainian sovereignty and than an all out war. The comparison to the Cuban missile crisis is flawed since the US did not introduce Ukraine into NATO or start building a nuclear missile complex there.

    while the human and material devastation of Ukraine continues.
    Which of course alternatively Russia could stop any time it stopped invading.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  18. #4218
    AqD's Avatar 。◕‿◕。
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    🏡🐰🐿️🐴🌳
    Posts
    10,822

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Last I checked Putin is the one who put himself in the position by rolling violations of Ukrainian sovereignty and than an all out war. The comparison to the Cuban missile crisis is flawed since the US did not introduce Ukraine into NATO or start building a nuclear missile complex there.
    It makes no sense to reason with Kremlin today. They don't care either way and violence is the only thing Putin and his supporters understand.

    Direct intervention and nukes should be on the table now. I bet the first and second strike capabilities of NATO is much better and we have higher chance of survival.

  19. #4219
    swabian's Avatar igni ferroque
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    Germany
    Posts
    4,147

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by AqD View Post
    It makes no sense to reason with Kremlin today. They don't care either way and violence is the only thing Putin and his supporters understand.

    Direct intervention and nukes should be on the table now. I bet the first and second strike capabilities of NATO is much better and we have higher chance of survival.
    Nukes should never be on the table at all. Period. When i say "China is not a nuclear threat" i mean the amount of destruction they can deliver compared to the amount of the destruction they know they would have to suffer. But this is reduced to the question who is more likely to survive. physically. Not about who has any future after such an exchange of aggression. The world as we know it would end. Billions would die and there would be no questions asked about economy and prosperity.

  20. #4220
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
    Citizen

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    12,484

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    YOU should click on the link and read more
    Once again, for the last time:
    on average across 27 countries: 36% support their country providing weapons to the Ukrainian military in the conflict"
    Only 36%,Mithradates.
    Last edited by Ludicus; May 27, 2022 at 02:30 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •