View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

Voters
100. You may not vote on this poll
  • I support Ukraine fully.

    65 65.00%
  • I support Russia fully.

    12 12.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 4.00%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    6 6.00%
  • Not sure.

    6 6.00%
  • I don't care.

    7 7.00%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #4121
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    In Dresden, Tokyo and many other German and Japanese cities, the city center was deliberately bombed. In Hiroshima and Nagasaki, just on the first day after the atomic bomb was dropped, and in no case was there talk of "war crimes" or "genocide", as is now being said about the civilian dead in Ukraine.
    Here, in the war in Ukraine, one confuses the horror that any war is with the particular horror that is meant to be attributed to this one, as if there were clean wars in which only combatants die. Of course, none of this makes the invasion and war that Putin has brought to Ukraine any more justifiable or any less reprehensible. And if there is only one culprit for the invasion, there are more culprits for the continuation of the war, and disinformation, truncated, incomplete or one-sided information is their main weapon. One day we will know the whole story.
    Umm so the Allies should have simply agreed to the NAZI and Imperial Japaneses demands? Last I checked they chose war. And lets See Chamberlain and Reynaud kinda did try negotiating over and over again - not sure you got a good analogy here. Also like how you dwell casualties in the Axis powers all the time. How many Indonesians died under Japanese occupation you never seem to mention that in your attacks on allied bombing (number is someplace over 4 million but hey who cares it was not the US doing that killing since the US is evil and Japan had no agency in WW2 I mean Japan was forced to start the war). Also Its not clear to me there are civilians in a economic total war. A great uncle of mine worked churning out B-24s in Willow Run. Was he really a civilian? Better yet he was a key skilled trades guy critical to the war effort and so was deferred when he tried to join to fight. Sounds like a valid target to me.

    Also this is rather neat..

    In Dresden, Tokyo and many other German and Japanese cities, the city center was deliberately bombed. In Hiroshima and Nagasaki, just on the first day after the atomic bomb was dropped, and in no case was there talk of "war crimes" or "genocide"
    Like that you manged leave out the sack and rape of say Berlin or Königsberg by the Russians because of course US and its puppet the UK (and I guess eastern European NATO members Poland etc) bad and the only ones with agency, Russia just forced to act by mean outsiders.
    Last edited by conon394; May 22, 2022 at 05:44 PM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  2. #4122

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by z3n View Post
    @Fkizz

    Given the East-West "Great Schism" split thats existed between the Catholic church and Orthodox for a thousand years, it's safe to say that the west inherently views its leaders as better than the Eastern leaders. That said, I can't think of a single leader of a great power I'd describe as a good person. Morally speaking leaders display narcissistic traits (as proven in studies), even thought leaders like Journalists rank #2 for jobs taken by sociopaths / psychopaths.

    Geopolitically I doubt anyone can come up with a solution for Russia that doesnt involve it losing in some way, the East West divide has gone on for so long it permeates even the broader agreements made between countries despite Communisms attenpt to become Atheist and break the cycle. In part the cold war intensified the split leading back to the reversion. There's not really an easy way out for Russia especially given a unified Europe that doesn't fight wars anymore and describes Russia being part of Europe as a silly proposition but its mainly silly because of the underlying issue thats threaded throughout all of the interactions people have, taught by several thousand generations of the East - West divide.
    That's a better reply than what I was expecting. In a way, current situation a long term sucession/consequence of the "Great Schism", gotta agree. Atheistic centuries and Secularism didn't break the divide East-West divide either, for customs were already too deeply rooted and differentiated.

    PS - This still doesn't explain Russia's endemic socio-economic stagnation. The "but he only had 4-8 years to enact his plans" cliche doesn't work here.
    Putin had plenty of years to develop Russia. "Autocracy" is no excuse, PRC developed China to an economic titan despite that. Plus Economically Putin was doing better than Yeltsin, but seems at some point the stagnation became the accepted norm.
    Last edited by fkizz; May 22, 2022 at 07:25 PM.
    It will be seen that, as used, the word ‘Fascism’ is almost entirely meaningless. In conversation, of course, it is used even more wildly than in print. I have heard it applied to farmers, shopkeepers, Social Credit, corporal punishment, fox-hunting, bull-fighting, the 1922 Committee, the 1941 Committee, Kipling, Gandhi, Chiang Kai-Shek, homosexuality, Priestley's broadcasts, Youth Hostels, astrology, women, dogs and I do not know what else.

    -George Orwell

  3. #4123

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by fkizz View Post
    That's a better reply than what I was expecting. In a way, current situation a long term sucession/consequence of the "Great Schism", gotta agree. Atheistic centuries and Secularism didn't break the divide East-West divide either, for customs were already too deeply rooted and differentiated.

    PS - This still doesn't explain Russia's endemic socio-economic stagnation. The "but he only had 4-8 years to enact his plans" cliche doesn't work here.
    Putin had plenty of years to develop Russia. "Autocracy" is no excuse, PRC developed China to an economic titan despite that. Plus Economically Putin was doing better than Yeltsin, but seems at some point the stagnation became the accepted norm.
    The main difference between Russia and China is that China has a much bigger population (~1.2 billion to Russia's 140 million). Simple size gives it a lot more weight. Additionally, Russia's birth rate plummeted in the 90s and hasn't recovered; the mean population age is quite old (around 40 IIRC).
    Putin was able to buttress the treasury with oil export revenue previously, but he clearly did not- or simply could not- use that to bolster the economy generally.

  4. #4124
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Putin was able to buttress the treasury with oil export revenue previously, but he clearly did not- or simply could not- use that to bolster the economy generally.
    Thing is he did not use his oil and other natural resource wealth to invest in other sectors and diversity the Russian economy.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  5. #4125
    Mithradates's Avatar Campidoctor
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Remember when Russian Military TV Dispatch Showed Vessel at Ukraine Port Prior to Attack?

    Thats when Ukraine had destroyed the Russian Alligator-class landing ship Orsk while docked at Berdyansk.

    Well, they did it again.

    Russian TV Shows Off Rare 2S4 Mega Mortar-Then Ukraine Blows It Up

    The giant mortars belt out gigantic 288-pound F864 shells more akin in effect to air-dropped bombs out to a range of 6 miles at a stately maximum fire rate of one round per minute. It can also fire Smel’chak (“Daredevil”) laser-guided rounds, 3B11 nuclear shells, and 3O8 ‘Nerpa’ rocket-assisted cargo shells with a maximum range of 12 miles that can release a hail of cluster bomblets.
    ...
    However, within 24 hours after Kot’s report went live, the Ukrainian military released a video shot by a drone peering down on a location close to the building Kots had been filming from. It shows a 2S4 consumed by flames. Abruptly, its ammunition—up to 40 oversized rounds—detonates in a gigantic fireball.
    Another Wunderwaffe down, cant wait to see the first BMP-T "Terminator" burning on a drone footage after a Russian TV shows its location...

  6. #4126
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Read this book to understand the myth of the strictly defensive posture of the EU/NATO
    Book “Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground - Rand Corporation, 2019
    Link: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR3063.pdf



    A few excerpts, read the whole book.

    This report examines a range of possible means to extend Russia...we seek to define areas where the United States can do so to its advantage

    these steps are conceived of as elements in a campaign designed to unbalance the adversary, leading Russia to compete in domains or regions where the United States has a competitive advantage, and causing Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically or causing the regime to lose domestic and/or international prestige and influence.
    The Ukrainian military already is bleeding Russia in the Donbass region (and vice versa).Providing more U.S. military equipment and advice could lead Russia to increase its direct involvement in the conflict and the price it pays for it.

    In the Caucasus, the United States has fewer options to extend Russia.

    Likewise, the United States is not in a strong position to challenge Russian influence in Central Asia for similar geographic reasons.

    Increasing military advice and arms supplies to Ukraine is the most feasible of these options with the largest impact
    The best cost-imposing strategies are those that would incorporate a combination of approaches that are affordable for the United States, and generate enough anxiety in Moscow that Russia would be prompted to invest in costly defensive (or counteroffensive) measures.

    More-aggressive U.S. and allied patrolling near Russian naval base areas could cause Russia to adopt expensive countermeasures.

    The principal limiting factor in most of these maritime strategies is that Russia could simply choose not to compete.

    Blue-water navies are expensive, and Russia, primarily a land power, might not want to invest significant resources into challenging the United States and NATO for command of even nearby seas.

    The most promising measures to stress Russia are those which directly address these vulnerabilities, anxieties, and strengths, exploiting areas of weakness while undermining Russia’s current advantages.

    Sanctions can also limit Russia’s economic potential. To be effective, however, these need to be multilateral, involving (at a minimum) the European Union, which is Russia’s largest customer.

    Russia is not seeking parity with the United States across the military spectrum.
    For instance, Russia is not going to challenge U.S. dominance of the world’s oceans. Targeted measures focused on threatening what limited maritime access Russia enjoys to the Arctic, Baltic, and Black Seas, however, could lead Russia to invest in costly and largely ineffective countermeasures.

    Most of the steps covered in this report are in some sense escalatory, and most would likely prompt some Russian counterescalation.

    The United States can select from a range of approaches for extending Russia that emphasize different strategic objectives.
    some of these measures would require the participation of allies to be effective.

    This report examines a variety of measures that the United States and its friends and allies might take to extend Russia. Most fall into the category known as cost-imposing strategies, the purpose of which is to place a burden on a potential adversary that is greater than would have been imposed otherwise and is ideally less than the burden undertaken by the imposing side.

    Importantly, increasing Russian fear and anxiety are only instruments in encouraging Russia to overextend itself militarily or economically.

    Chapter four- Geopolitical measures, page 95

    This chapter describes six possible U.S. moves in the current geopolitical competition: providing lethal arms to Ukraine, resuming support to the Syrian rebels, promoting regime change in Belarus, exploiting Armenian and Azeri tensions, intensifying attention to Central Asia, and isolating Transnistria. There are several other possible geopolitical moves...including intensifying NATO’s relationship with Sweden and Finland.

    Measure 1: Provide Lethal Aid to Ukraine

    Expanding U.S. assistance to Ukraine, including lethal military assistance, would likely increase the costs to Russia, in both blood and treasure, of holding the Donbass region.

    Russia might counter-escalate, committing more troops and pushing them deeper into Ukraine. Russia might even pre-empt U.S. action, escalating before any additional U.S. aid arrives.
    Such escalation might extend Russia; Eastern Ukraine is already a drain. Taking more of Ukraine might only increase the burden, albeit at the expense of the Ukrainian people.

    From a U.S. policy standpoint, Belarus’ unrest might present an opportunity to extend Russia by aiding the opposition. Promoting regime change in Belarus is one of the most escalatory options considered in this report. Such an effort probably would not succeed and could provoke a strong Russian response, including the possibility of military action. Such a reaction might extend Russia by requiring the nation to commit resources to preserve its grasp over Belarus, thereby provoking the United States and its European allies to respond with harsher sanctions
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  7. #4127
    reavertm's Avatar Decanus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I think Russia should take your advice (that you give to Ukraine), Ludicus, and surrender its territories for the greater good of its people. So much territory is very difficult to defend. It would be much more defensible for Russia not to have so much territory to overextend its armies.

    So you cited some think tank, that's what think tanks do, think about tanks, I'm sure you will find similar publication on the other side of Iron Curtain.
    Move along, nothing to see here..
    Last edited by reavertm; May 23, 2022 at 09:22 PM.

  8. #4128

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus
    Read the whole book.
    Why? You didn’t. I read the intro and the section on Ukraine, including the parts you skipped:
    We are not recommending all of these measures, nor any particu- lar combination thereof. The purpose of this study is not to propose a policy for dealing with Russia, only to evaluate a range of options available to the United States should it choose to intensify competition with that country. Most of the steps covered in this report are poten- tially escalatory, and most would likely prompt some Russian counter- escalation. The United States must consider and evaluate the available likely Russian counter-escalation options and seek to deny or neutral- ize them as part of the overall U.S. strategy.

    In the December 1994 Budapest Memorandum, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Russia provided the newly sovereign Ukraine with security “assurances” in exchange for Ukraine giving up its 4,000-warhead nuclear arsenal.18 Action by the United States to make good on these assurances could enhance the credibility of formal and informal security guarantees that the United States has provided other partners around the world, and could reduce their perceived need for their own nuclear deterrents. These benefits, however, would only accrue if the additional U.S. assistance actually allowed Ukraine to prevail in its conflict with Russia.
    It’s an awfully damning indictment of Putin’s regime to suggest a think tank published a paper detailing how the US intends to “trick” him into invading Ukraine, and his conclusion is to do exactly that in accordance with US “strategy.” Of course the reality is most of the risks of support identified in RAND’s analysis fortunately haven’t come to pass (yet), and that’s because the Ukrainian people are fighting heroically with everything they’ve got, something that conveniently never makes it into the story of the US sock puppeting the entire planet all by itself. Perhaps the greatest intangible benefit of all to the US so far is that those who hate us have completely discredited their own “It’s only bad when America does it” narrative. In a bit of historical irony, the most the US can be accused of doing here is “allowing” Putin enough rope to hang himself with. That might mean, for example, that the US should have mobilized more crippling sanctions and global coalitions against the Kremlin in 2014 instead of 2022 to shorten the rope, but that completely contradicts your position anyway.
    Last edited by Lord Thesaurian; May 24, 2022 at 02:14 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    I'm convinced that if the U.S. wanted, they could solve the conflict in 48 hours.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    No, we don't care about your libertarian "evidence".

  9. #4129

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by fkizz View Post

    PS - This still doesn't explain Russia's endemic socio-economic stagnation. The "but he only had 4-8 years to enact his plans" cliche doesn't work here.
    Putin had plenty of years to develop Russia. "Autocracy" is no excuse, PRC developed China to an economic titan despite that. Plus Economically Putin was doing better than Yeltsin, but seems at some point the stagnation became the accepted norm.
    Put bluntly, Putin IS the problem.

    Putin has made it a point to steal every successful Russian business for himself. Owners are "persuaded" to sell for pennies on the dollar, or else they are jailed on trumped-up charges. Or simply killed outright. The result has been to crush ambition among the Russian people. Why bother starting your own business when the only two possible outcomes are failure or succeeding and having it stolen from you? Why work hard when it just makes you more likely to catch his greedy gaze? Much better to just plod along, doing the bare minimum.

    In addition Putin's stranglehold on Russia's economy has led to tens of thousands of it's most talented young people leaving the country for better prospects elsewhere. This has resulted in a huge brain drain that the already shaky Russian economy simply couldn't absorb.

    Another factor is that the Russian population has had generations of learned helplessness. For over a century the average Russian has had virtually no control over their lives. Chaos, corruption, and injustice have been the norm and most don't ever expect anything to change no matter what they do. So they just accept it, in an oddly similar way to how we in the US just accept mass shootings as something normal we cannot change.
    Last edited by Coughdrop addict; May 24, 2022 at 01:28 AM.

  10. #4130
    nhytgbvfeco2's Avatar Praepositus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Read this book to understand the myth of the strictly defensive posture of the EU/NATO
    Book “Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground - Rand Corporation, 2019
    Link: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR3063.pdf



    A few excerpts, read the whole book.
    People would pay more attention to your posts if you occasionally replied to people. Instead you post something, people provide counter arguments, you don't reply. Rinse and repeat. I'm tired of presenting the same counter arguments without getting a response Ludicus.

  11. #4131
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Well I think the problem is its hard to come up with a coherent explanation of how the US is always bad, and that no state near Russia has any right to be an independent sovereign sate but that every other state needs to respect that Russian (well more Putin's) belief.

    Also gets more murky you try to explain to Poland why they should not be in NATO after that whole Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact and the fact a bunch of Poland was simply absorbed by the USSR. I'm sure somehow it was the fault of the US.
    Last edited by conon394; May 24, 2022 at 11:04 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  12. #4132
    AqD's Avatar 。◕‿◕。
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Read this book to understand the myth of the strictly defensive posture of the EU/NATO
    Book “Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground - Rand Corporation, 2019
    Link: https://www.rand.org/content/dam/ran...AND_RR3063.pdf
    EU/NATO is a necessity to our survival. If what's in the book is true and we cannot have a future together with some countries, our only choice is to make sure they don't have a future.


    EDIT: As for why NATO is necessary and why it must keep expanding, conon394's post above already gave the answer. It matters not what Kremlin thinks or whether US is good or bad. We're talking about survival here and a government like Kremlin threatens our very existence.
    Last edited by AqD; May 24, 2022 at 12:50 PM.

  13. #4133
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    In an interview with the BBC today, Stoltenberg had an extremely warmongering speech, boasting about the inclusion of Sweden and Finland in NATO, and refusing negotiations with Russia. Stoltenberg, confronted with the Italian public opinion, which rejects the delivery of more weapons to the Ukraine, tried twice to ignore this question, and ended up implying that the Italian public opinion was irrelevant, because NATO is on the right side of history.We are heading for a global conflict, but which is the right side of the story? the perpetrator of the invasion is Russia. Russia is in the wrong side of history. (Although we know that history is written by victors). But it is necessary to go further in the analysis of what happened. I have not the slightest doubt that the cause of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was NATO's militaristic expansion, as William Burns predicted many years ago,WikiLeaks on Twitter: "'Nyet Means Nyet: Russia's #NATO ...

    Analysis: Italy's politics, public opinion,

    Opinion polls show that in Italy there is little public support for sending weapons to Ukraine. Surveys also show Italians are split over the issue of sanctions, oppose raising defence spending and, according to an Ipsos poll on Wednesday, only 61% say Russian leader Vladimir Putin is mainly to blame for the conflict. Such sentiments are not limited to ordinary people. They are also found among Italy's largest ruling parties
    Meanwhile, in Ukraine, two right-wings continue to fight. That of Ukraine, which bans left wing parties, and that of Russia, another ethno-nationalism with state capitalism and cryptocurrencies.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  14. #4134
    Roma_Victrix's Avatar Call me Ishmael
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by nhytgbvfeco2 View Post
    People would pay more attention to your posts if you occasionally replied to people. Instead you post something, people provide counter arguments, you don't reply. Rinse and repeat. I'm tired of presenting the same counter arguments without getting a response Ludicus.
    Ludicus probably has posts of nearly every person in the Mudpit on the "mute" option, but he has responded to fkizz (and only when something rubbed him the wrong way about Portugal since they're both Portuguese). As for me, I'm a left-of-center Democrat and US-style progressive, and I hear people in my camp espousing the same views as Chomsky on the matter, which I do not like or find agreeable. I see a lot of apologetics for the carnage wrought by grotesquely violent Russian imperialism. Some people simply refuse to criticize or oppose Putin's actions with the same vociferous force they displayed when Bush unjustly invaded Iraq with the "Coalition of the Willing" (as opposed to the NATO invasion of Afghanistan per Article 5 being invoked after 9/11).

    Aside from the rather shaky Belarus, Russia doesn't even have a pathetic "Coalition of the Willing", not even Kazakhstan, which has hilariously seemed unwilling to offer Russia any serious support in this conflict. It's a rather stark contrast to when the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and into the 1980s. At the time, Central Asian Soviet republics willingly sacrificed their young men and are still proud of that military service to this day. Things couldn't be more different and people outside Russia are not buying Putin's BS propaganda about Ukraine (which poses no threat to Russia, especially after nuclear disarmament).

  15. #4135
    Ludicus's Avatar Vicarius Provinciae
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It's good to hear that you are a US style progressive, Roma

    Edit: To have different opinions is enriching.

    I usually say that socialism, which wants nothing in common with religion, is very similar to it. This idea afflicts both Christians and socialists: the idea of equality, of the distribution of wealth, of the criticism of those who dominate and exploit (the rich) is in both. It is in socialism and Christianity that we find an idea of the individual that could be called a carob seed. It is the weight. They are all the same. Regardless of the carob or the carob tree where they were born, all carob seeds have the same weight. In times past, they were used to weigh gold and precious stones. One carat is the weight if one carob seed.



    In fact, many authors have seen religion where there can only be politics. Walter Benjamin said that capitalism is a religion and that it is the most dangerous of all because it doesn't admit expiation. Capitalism as Religion (Benjamin, 1921)
    For Benjamin, Nietzsche, Marx and Freud were ultimately sympathetic to what he called the religion of despair. None of the three would have appreciated the reflection.

    ------
    Let's hear Kissinger, and a similar opinion, ( NYTimes)
    Kissinger says Ukraine must give up ... - Business Insider

    Henry Kissinger said that Ukraine must concede territory to Russia to end the war and warned the West that a humiliating defeat for Russia could result in wider destabilisation.
    "Negotiations need to begin in the next two months before it creates upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome. Ideally, the dividing line should be a return to the status quo ante," Kissinger said.
    "Pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself."
    Kissinger's comments echo a New York Times editorial last week, which argued that Ukraine should accept it would have to make territorial concessions for a peace deal.
    What Is America's Strategy in Ukraine? - The New York Times...

    The War in Ukraine Is Getting Complicated, and America Isn't Ready
    Is the United States, for example, trying to help bring an end to this conflict, through a settlement that would allow for a sovereign Ukraine and some kind of relationship between the United States and Russia? Or is the United States now trying to weaken Russia permanently? Has the administration’s goal shifted to destabilizing Vladimir Putin or having him removed? Does the United States intend to hold Mr. Putin accountable as a war criminal? Or is the goal to try to avoid a wider war — and if so, how does crowing about providing U.S. intelligence to kill Russians and sink one of their ships achieve this?
    Without clarity on these questions, the White House not only risks losing Americans’ interest in supporting Ukrainians — who continue to suffer the loss of lives and livelihoods — but also jeopardizes long-term peace and security on the European continent.
    Americans have been galvanized by Ukraine’s suffering, but popular support for a war far from U.S. shores will not continue indefinitely. Inflation is a much bigger issue for American voters than Ukraine, and the disruptions to global food and energy markets are likely to intensify.
    A decisive military victory for Ukraine over Russia, in which Ukraine regains all the territory Russia has seized since 2014, is not a realistic goal.
    The United States and NATO are already deeply involved, militarily and economically. Unrealistic expectations could draw them ever deeper into a costly, drawn-out war. Russia, however battered and inept, is still capable of inflicting untold destruction on Ukraine and is still a nuclear superpower with an aggrieved, volatile despot who has shown little inclination toward a negotiated settlement.
    Recent bellicose statements from Washington — President Biden’s assertion that Mr. Putin “cannot remain in power,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s comment that Russia must be “weakened” and the pledge by the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, that the United States would support Ukraine “until victory is won” — may be rousing proclamations of support, but they do not bring negotiations any closer.
    But as the war continues, Mr. Biden should also make clear to President Volodymyr Zelensky and his people that there is a limit to how far the United States and NATO will go to confront Russia, and limits to the arms, money and political support they can muster.
    in fact, if we don't want nuclear war, why are we pushing for one?
    Last edited by Ludicus; May 24, 2022 at 04:35 PM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  16. #4136
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    ...
    in fact, if we don't want nuclear war, why are we pushing for one?
    I'm sorry this is garbage rhetoric.

    First up, who is we? If the US wanted nuclear war Moscow would be ashes.

    Russia started the war (undeclared, with the clear aim of stealing land), that's a push, Russia rattles the nuclear sabre from time to time, that's a push. Russia incinerates urban areas with civilians, thats a push.

    Russia is pushing for nuclear war. The threat that Putin will start Armageddon is the shield under which this brigand is conducting his land grab.

    This war is still undeclared, making Putin a brigand even by the lax pre WWII standard: under the post WWII settlement he is a terrorist. All the apologists blame the US for the war, but Russia started it and they still deny its a war. How can anyone negotiate with Putin when he doesn't even admit its a war?

    Russia is setting new lows in its international conduct. It has done this sort of illegal land grab before, and if it is not stopped they will do it again. Russian's neighbours agree, they have rushed to join the anti-Russian alliance.

    The alternative is every four to eight years Putin murders some civilians until we hand over another slice of pie.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  17. #4137
    Muizer's Avatar member 3519
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Roma_Victrix View Post
    Ludicus probably has posts of nearly every person in the Mudpit on the "mute" option,
    To be fair to him, he's come a long way. At first it was "Ukraine must surrender unconditionally to prevent escalation". Now it's "Ukraine should not demand all of its territory back to prevent escalation". A seismic shift.

    And when the situation actually arises that Ukraine is no longer fighting for its very existence, but to regain lost territory, and Russia shows itself prepared to negotiate a settlement, then inevitably the point approaches where it will be revealed whether the West, and esp. the USA, is in it to help Ukraine or in it to harm Russia.
    "Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -

  18. #4138
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Let's hear Kissinger, and a similar opinion, ( NYTimes)
    Kissinger says Ukraine must give up ... - Business Insider
    Really Ludicus you have hit rock bottom if you are going to latch onto Kissinger a man who should be rotting in hell rather getting a reception at Davos. Maybe we could have a secret bombing campaign in Belarus or Kazakhstan while carve up the Ukraine?
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  19. #4139

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Muizer View Post

    And when the situation actually arises that Ukraine is no longer fighting for its very existence, but to regain lost territory, and Russia shows itself prepared to negotiate a settlement, then inevitably the point approaches where it will be revealed whether the West, and esp. the USA, is in it to help Ukraine or in it to harm Russia.
    Helping Ukraine and harming Russia are the same thing at this point. Russia must be utterly defeated in Ukraine. If they are allowed any victory at all, however slight, they will be back in 4 or 8 years: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...russia/629940/

    The West should not aim to offer Putin an off-ramp; our goal, our endgame, should be defeat. In fact, the only solution that offers some hope of long-term stability in Europe is rapid defeat, or even, to borrow Macron’s phrase, humiliation. In truth, the Russian president not only has to stop fighting the war; he has to conclude that the war was a terrible mistake, one that can never be repeated. More to the point, the people around him—leaders of the army, the security services, the business community—have to conclude exactly the same thing. The Russian public must eventually come to agree too.
    Although saying so is considered undiplomatic, the American administration clearly knows that the defeat, sidelining, or removal of Putin is the only outcome that offers any long-term stability in Ukraine and the rest of Europe. “Putin,” said Joe Biden in March, “cannot remain in power.” In April, Lloyd Austin said that he hoped “to see Russia weakened to the degree it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.” Both of these statements by the American president and his defense secretary were treated as gaffes or as policy mistakes—thoughtless remarks that might irritate the Russians. In truth, they were half-articulated acknowledgments of an ugly reality that no one wants to confront: Any cease-fire that allows Putin to experience any kind of victory will be inherently unstable, because it will encourage him to try again. Victory in Crimea did not satisfy the Kremlin. Victory in Kherson will not satisfy the Kremlin either.

  20. #4140

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    Helping Ukraine and harming Russia are the same thing at this point. Russia must be utterly defeated in Ukraine. If they are allowed any victory at all, however slight, they will be back in 4 or 8 years: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...russia/629940/
    This argument doesn't really make much sense. The circumstances now are quite different from 2014, since Russia has suffered substantial losses in the past 3 months (contra the bloodless rapid takeover of Crimea). Even if they manage to claw onto their current gains, the loss of manpower and materiel will not be easily replaced, and the Ukrainians will be doing the same (and probably with a bigger budget). It is also worth noting that at the beginning of the year it was widely believed that Russia would rapidly overrun the Ukrainian military in a full-scale conflict. This assumption has been proven false by the events of the past 3 months, and the Ukrainian military is significantly stronger now than it was 3 months ago thanks to Western support, while Russia's military edge has been dulled considerably. Furthermore, any ceasefire line is almost guaranteed to turn into a heavily-fortified no man's land like the Korean DMZ. Trying to restart a conflict under such conditions would be very difficult, and probably require a substantial build-up of forces that would be easy to detect and prepare against.
    Last edited by Laser101; May 25, 2022 at 08:02 AM.

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