Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[conon394]

The Russians have been claiming (not without reason) that the Ukrainian military is essentially an American/European proxy.

I don't think Putin cares too much about the implications of such an 'acknowledgement' either, since he can just prevent anyone in Russia from pointing it out.

Well it looks like passing an aside courtesy of Rand Paul in couple days the US will be all in for 40 Billion so yes I think we can call it a proxy war now. But got no sympathy for Putin until he say admits he would not have backed the North Korean invasion... You want to play at great power better expect others great powers will as well.

[antaeus]

The Russians have been claiming (not without reason) that the Ukrainian military is essentially an American/European proxy.

Russia directly invaded Ukraine without provocation. The idea that Ukraine sourcing outside aid = making them a proxy simply reduces their agency and delegitimises them as an independent country. Certainly it makes sense for Putin to make the case that he is fighting NATO by proxy. It justifies the poor performance of his armed forces and deflects questions about where exactly all that defence spending went, if it wasn't on improving the armed forces in any way other than paying for nice orange labels on parade ground tanks. And from the start he has sought to delegitimise Ukraine as an independent entity, so of course he's going to claim he isn't fighting a 'real' enemy.

But at this point the US has made clear that while they might provide intelligence, that they have no say in how it is actioned. And that while they might provide equipment and training, again they have no say over how it is deployed (In fact New Lines magazine reported that there is anecdotal evidence that in some cases in Donbas, Ukrainian armed forces have been showing US trainers how to use equipment that has otherwise never been used in combat before... so even that is a complicated relationship).

The irony here, is that battlefield reports have shown significant American and European made components in a lot of Russian equipment, including off-the-shelf and even Amazon purchases. I wonder how many local Russian programmes for developing high end military tech were replaced by amazon purchases after their budgets were spent on luxury boats. It's like this is a proxy war between amazon and the US arms industry if we're going to play that game.

[Laser101]

Russia directly invaded Ukraine without provocation. The idea that Ukraine sourcing outside aid = making them a proxy simply reduces their agency and delegitimises them as an independent country. Certainly it makes sense for Putin to make the case that he is fighting NATO by proxy. It justifies the poor performance of his armed forces and deflects questions about where exactly all that defence spending went, if it wasn't on improving the armed forces in any way other than paying for nice orange labels on parade ground tanks. And from the start he has sought to delegitimise Ukraine as an independent entity, so of course he's going to claim he isn't fighting a 'real' enemy.

True, but the Ukrainians are dependent on NATO aid, without which their situation would be considerably more difficult.

The irony here, is that battlefield reports have shown significant American and European made components in a lot of Russian equipment, including off-the-shelf and even Amazon purchases. I wonder how many local Russian programmes for developing high end military tech were replaced by amazon purchases after their budgets were spent on luxury boats. It's like this is a proxy war between amazon and the US arms industry if we're going to play that game.

Were the Soviets ever that stupid?

[antaeus]

True, but the Ukrainians are dependent on NATO aid, without which their situation would be considerably more difficult.

I don't agree that dependence on aid makes one a proxy either. Egypt and Israel both receive significant military aid from the US. Egypt would struggle to field a modern army without it. The last time Israel experienced an existential military threat, the US opened the floodgates in the same way it has for Ukraine. Despite maintaining ongoing disagreements. Israel couldn't be said to be a US proxy.


Actually.. on going back to 1973... the parallels are wonderful... threats of nuclear conflict... energy embargos... rhyming, not repeating.

Were the Soviets ever that stupid?

They at least managed to make local copies of things they didn't develop!

Although in the Ukrainian teardowns of Russian UAVs they're actually complimentary. Sure it uses a Canon DSLR for optics and is held together with duct tape. But it still did it's job, and it's hardly a great loss if it falls out of the sky and is picked up by the enemy. It's not going to give away any great secrets, and it can be repaired in the field with duct tape!

When it was developed 5 or 10 years ago, they likely didn't foresee complete isolation from Western markets... so designing throwaway drones full of western parts bought off the shelf wasn't so bad.

On the other hand... Su34 pilots using off the shelf GPS for navigation is really bad. As is using Ukrainian cell phones for comms. And seeing 'made in the USA' on T90 engine parts is almost as bad as seeing 'Made in the USSR' on perishable rubber...

If Russia doesn't experience a purge of mid-level planners and managers and military officials after this... it will be because they've already fled to their holiday homes in Monaco.

[Alastor]

I wonder if this qualifies as a full-on u-turn:
https://www.politico.eu/article/puti...den-join-nato/

“As for the expansion [of NATO], including through new members of the alliance — Finland, Sweden — Russia wants to inform you that it has no problems with these states,” Putin said on Monday, speaking at a gathering in Moscow of leaders from the member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Russia-backed military alliance. “Therefore, in this sense, expansion on account of these countries does not pose a direct threat to Russia.”

[Laser101]

I wonder if this qualifies as a full-on u-turn:
https://www.politico.eu/article/puti...den-join-nato/
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I don't think it ever mattered very much. For one thing, Sweden and Finland are already EU members anyway. Also, neither were ever part of the Soviet Union or Warsaw Pact, and neither have a local Russian population of any kind.

[antaeus]

I don't think it ever mattered very much. For one thing, Sweden and Finland are already EU members anyway. Also, neither were ever part of the Soviet Union or Warsaw Pact, and neither have a local Russian population of any kind.

There was a fear for a while that Finland may have been coerced into the Warsaw Pact post WW2. Weirdly, that was one of the reasons for Sweden to maintain neutrality and stay out of NATO - because it would have left Finland - that same Finland that was a lost Russian province that Soviets had WW2 grievance against - isolated and alone. You'll remember Sweden said last month that they would only join NATO if Finland could/would. Cold War Finland was quite the den of spies, and was forced to be very deferential to Soviet good graces.

But you are right in that EU defacto offers it's members unstated military protection. It would offer the same to Ukraine. But the EU is significantly harder to join than NATO...

[StarDreamer]

I wonder if this qualifies as a full-on u-turn:
https://www.politico.eu/article/puti...den-join-nato/
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They noticed that threats weren't really working, if anything it made things worse. So they adopted the line of it is okay as long as no NATO (nuclear)missiles or bases are built in Finland and Sweden. These things are unlikely to happen anytime soon or ever. Especially the nuclear weapons, since at least in Finland they are prohibited to be brought into Finland by law. And in Sweden nuclear weapons are sort of a big no-no.

As that former Russian colonel said, waving missiles at Sweden and Finland made them look ridiculous.

[sumskilz]

I wonder if this qualifies as a full-on u-turn:
https://www.politico.eu/article/puti...den-join-nato/
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It's the best move Putin can manage under the circumstances. Continued explicit opposition would only further expose Russia's impotence.

[StarDreamer]

In other news the formal declarations by Sweden and Finland to join NATO has been delivered to NATO HQ in Brussels. So now the formal NATO process has started.

[reavertm]

I text/article you quoted, there was:

"This is why we need something that could be described as “Principled Realism”, a conservative pursuit of realism with a moral compass based on our Judeo-Christian values."

There is no such thing as Judeo-Christian values.
"Judeo-Christian" anything only actually happens as a team-up against Muslims or people of other faiths, also against atheism.
If author of article wanted to refer to some values, should have said freedom and democracy. In fact Judeo and Christian values are at odds with many social freedoms and are not worth spreading.
My 5 cents off-topic.

[Mithradates]

One hopes not. But I am not counting out some kind of demonstration on not claimed Russian Ukraine out of the window. Not a strike on NATO that would be the path of lunacy but I just think a not high civilian target inside not Russian occupied territory is no longer a near zero proposition.

I dont think that the benefits of the demonstration would outweigh the consequences, Russia has waged war in Europe and now is getting sanctioned for it, if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Europe, that would mean even tougher sanctions and an even bloodier war with Ukraine, simply not worth it.

The sanctions are starting to take effect:

Sanctions Send Russia’s Car Industry Back to the 80s, New Cars Now Without Airbags and ABS

...local carmakers now authorized to ignore Emissions standards and no longer obligated to fit their vehicles with important safety kit such as airbags, ESP, ABS or even seat belt pretensioners.

This is from an Andrey Movchan interview (He is a Russian economist)

"Sanctions won't make Russians starve or walk around naked, but they can deprive Russia of its ability to develop technology. Ten years of sanctions and Russia won't even think about attacking Ukraine, 15 years and technology in the West will advance so far that the Russian nuclear threat will cease to exist."

Putler needs a longer table to hide behind because more and more powerful Russians think their lives would be better without him.

-
Putin is making low-level tactical decisions and 'micromanaging' Russia's war efforts, according to reports

Russian leader Vladimir Putin has become increasingly involved in low-level military strategy amid ongoing Russian failures in Ukraine, according to media reports.

The leader is getting involved, yep, has worked so well for somebody else too...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Coughdrop addict]

Putin is making low-level tactical decisions and 'micromanaging' Russia's war efforts, according to reports



The leader is getting involved, yep, has worked so well for somebody else too...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Didn't work out so great for the last Czar either. When an autocrat's forces are losing, they all inevitably come to the same conclusion: "Obviously the problem cannot be with me or anything I did...it must be that all of my generals are idiots unable to implement my brilliant and flawless strategies!". Without exception this leads to even worse performance as now that the autocrat is directly controlling things he can implement all of his stupid and ridiculous tactical ideas without anyone who actually knows what they're doing there to mitigate the damage.

[Ludicus]

Let's clarify two points. Russia is guilty of starting the war.The other point of the issue is the conflict.
Every conflict has a cause. The main source of this long-heralded conflict has been the increasing military expansion of the hegemonic power over the years.It would have been easy to resolve this heralded conflict without war, if Biden had wanted to do so, but he did not and will not do it, and so countless human lives were lost. And, in the process, comes the gradual destruction of Ukraine, Europe's weakened economy put at the service of war industries and not at its citizen's service to improve their standard of living. And, if it could be even worse, this could end up with a nuclear war. This reasoning is not of left or right, it is a matter of common sense, there are conservatives, and they are many, who think the same as I do.
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There is no such thing as Judeo-Christian values.

Of course not.Its a slogan. The far right always connects his fears of Islam with the idea of "Judeo-Christian" values. Ask the philosopher Kwame Anthony Appiah what he thinks about the western culture.There is no such thing as western civilisation - The Guardian
There is such a thing as western culture? The "Judeo-Christian tradition" was one of 20th-century America’s greatest political invention The 'Judeo-Christian Tradition' Is Over - The Atlantic

[Mithradates]

Didn't work out so great for the last Czar either. When an autocrat's forces are losing, they all inevitably come to the same conclusion: "Obviously the problem cannot be with me or anything I did...it must be that all of my generals are idiots unable to implement my brilliant and flawless strategies!". Without exception this leads to even worse performance as now that the autocrat is directly controlling things he can implement all of his stupid and ridiculous tactical ideas without anyone who actually knows what they're doing there to mitigate the damage.

Thinking about it, after the Ukrainian artillery destroyed the Russians at the Bilohorivka crossing, I have a guess now whose brilliant idea was to attempt a crossing at that same spot again

Let's clarify two points. Russia is guilty of starting the war.The other point of the issue is the conflict.
Every conflict has a cause. The main source of this long-heralded conflict has been the increasing military expansion of the hegemonic power over the years.It would have been easy to resolve this heralded conflict without war, if Biden had wanted to do so, but he did not and will not do it, and so countless human lives were lost. And, in the process, comes the gradual destruction of Ukraine, Europe's weakened economy put at the service of war industries and not at its citizen's service to improve their standard of living. And, if it could be even worse, this could end up with a nuclear war. This reasoning is not of left or right, it is a matter of common sense, there are conservatives, and they are many, who think the same as I do.

YOU think that was the main cause.

[conon394]

Every conflict has a cause. The main source of this long-heralded conflict has been the increasing military expansion of the hegemonic power over the years.It would have been easy to resolve this heralded conflict without war, if Biden had wanted to do so, but he did not and will not do it, and so countless human lives were lost. And, in the process, comes the gradual destruction of Ukraine, Europe's weakened economy put at the service of war industries and not at its citizen's service to improve their standard of living. And, if it could be even worse, this could end up with a nuclear war. This reasoning is not of left or right, it is a matter of common sense, there are conservatives, and they are many, who think the same as I do.

Ahh You mean Russia right for that "military expansion of the hegemonic power over the years"

"if Biden had wanted to do so"

What tell Ukraine to a Russian sock puppet. Kick the Baltic states out of NATO and the EU?

It would be nice if you actually say what the endgame you envision is - you have not. Does it involve Russian demilitarization in Kaliningrad (but that aggressive militarization or imperialism or some such because Russia is doing and they are not always bad like the US)

[Mithradates]

https://t.me/nexta_live/28766

The deputy commander of the Azov regiment recorded a video in which he denied the information that he had surrendered and left Azovstal.

“Glory to Ukraine! It is day 85 of the war. The leadership and I are on the premises of the Azovstal plant. There is a certain operation happening, details of which I am not going to share. I thank the whole world and Ukraine for the support. I will be seeing you.”

Wow, so if you threaten soldiers with life sentences and the death penalty they might refuse to surrender and instead will fight till the end, who could have seen that coming...

[z3n]

I have to admit I really enjoy reading about how Azov Nazis continue to be safely "evacuated" into enemy territory.

[fkizz]

I have to admit I really enjoy reading about how Azov Nazis continue to be safely "evacuated" into enemy territory.

Russia may need them for a prisioner exchange, more care should be given than is intuitive.

[Mithradates]

"Nazis", oh the irony...
Embrace the 90s.
How does it feel to be left behind?