Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Muizer]

So, what to make of this:


Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok tells anchor Olga Skabeyeva “the situation for us will clearly get worse…we’re in total geopolitical isolation…the situation is not normal.”

[conon394]

I heard a test pilot for the F-35 claims it's the best aircraft to take on the S-400. I'd be careful if I were the Russians. Shoot at Israeli aircraft too many times and the Israelis will conduct SEAD and
it won't be pretty.

Word

[Lord Thesaurian]

So, what to make of this:


Military analyst & retired colonel Mikhail Khodarenok tells anchor Olga Skabeyeva “the situation for us will clearly get worse…we’re in total geopolitical isolation…the situation is not normal.”

Well, seems like the two main options are this guy is speaking out of turn, or the Kremlin is muddying its own waters to prepare the public to accept a scapegoat and an unfavorable settlement of affairs.

[Laser101]

To what end Ludicus? Russia has, like clockwork, gone to a military conflict every 6-8 years. The 2nd Chechen war in 2000, The Georgia war in 2008, the Crimean annexation in 2014, the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Give them the Donbass today and Russia will demand Zaporozhia and Kherson in 2030, Odessa in 2038, Kharkiv in 2044, Kiev in 2052. Appeasement does not​ work.

Well, you could make that statement about the US also.

The circumstances that allowed the Crimean annexation and the Donbass conflict in 2014 aren't likely to be available again; whatever the Russians are able to hold once the conflict stops is likely to be the limit of their effective reach (in the west anyway).

[z3n]

So the defenders at Mariupol have surrendered: Mariupol defenders begin surrender as Ukraine declares them ‘heroes’

[nhytgbvfeco2]

So the defenders at Mariupol have surrendered: Mariupol defenders begin surrender as Ukraine declares them ‘heroes’

Indeed appears to be the case. We can add this to Russia's list of achievements for phase 2 of the invasion, which was launched about a month ago:
3 towns
1 factory

[conon394]

Indeed appears to be the case. We can add this to Russia's list of achievements for phase 2 of the invasion, which was launched about a month ago:
3 towns
1 factory

One wonders what Putin's plan is to pay fixing Mariupol if he rolls with attempted annexing of it.

[Coughdrop addict]

One wonders what Putin's plan is to pay fixing Mariupol if rolls with attempted annexing of it.

My guess is he plans to pay nothing, instead steal money from the Ukrainians and use slave labor. Or just leave it in ruins as long as he can rule over the ruins.

[conon394]

My guess is he plans to pay nothing, instead steal money from the Ukrainians and use slave labor. Or just leave it in ruins as long as he can rule over the ruins.

More or less all bad options. I mean Putin's rep (for being smart) is really now clearly over rated. He absolutely failed to note how difficult a time the US (vastly more wealthy and not under sanctions) had trying to put the pieces back together in Iraq - with a lot less damage.

[Mithradates]

One wonders what Putin's plan is to pay fixing Mariupol if he rolls with attempted annexing of it.

Assuming he will be able to keep the conquered territories.

[conon394]

Assuming he will be able to keep the conquered territories.

He is running out rope. I would assume he might fall back on annexing them all directly and call them all under Russian nuke protection.

[Mithradates]

He is running out rope. I would assume he might fall back on annexing them all directly and call them all under Russian nuke protection.

Russia threatened with nuclear weapons so many times that no one now believes their bluffs.

Russia must withdraw troops as part of peace deal, say Scholz and Zelenskyy

There should be no face-saving for Vladimir Putin at the expense of Ukrainian territorial integrity, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy agreed on a phone call Tuesday.

[Nebaki]

Maybe dreams really do come true?

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

You dream is something like the "Sack of Constantinople" which destroyed totally a part of the city and was nothing else then a great barbarism and brutality?

[StarDreamer]

One wonders what Putin's plan is to pay fixing Mariupol if he rolls with attempted annexing of it.

My guess it will be mostly left in ruins with a few new buildings popping up here and there. Considering Viipuri/Viborg/Vyborg still has ruins in the center of it since ww2. Russia cares little for the areas it conquers.

[conon394]

My guess it will be mostly left in ruins with a few new buildings popping up here and there. Considering Viipuri/Viborg/Vyborg still has ruins in the center of it since ww2. Russia cares little for the areas it conquers.

Comes and goes seemingly. I seem recall Putin payed for big time redo of Grozny after it was leveled (Although I suppose outside of that the countryside got no real investment) and a fair investment in the Crimea (but again the occupied Donbas seemed to not the get the Midas touch). Thing is this time he looking a big bite and one he going to have a really hard time swallowing, along with an occupation and recapitalizing his army and I guess a bit or more than a bit of loosing to China on the cheap side of arms sales.

------------

Russia threatened with nuclear weapons so many times that no one now believes their bluffs.

Russia must withdraw troops as part of peace deal, say Scholz and Zelenskyy

To some extent yes. But also a bit of No. Rattling that saber to try to get NATO to stop shipping weapons and aid is almost assuredly bluster that was aimed cracking the alliance politically and keeping Finland say from doing what it is going to do. But if he directly annexes the Ukrainian territory he occupies than is a more real threat. He would be defending the Motherland. Not saying he will do it but it something that require more thought in response.

[Mithradates]

To some extent yes. But also a bit of No. Rattling that saber to try to get NATO to stop shipping weapons and aid is almost assuredly bluster that was aimed cracking the alliance politically and keeping Finland say from doing what it is going to do. But if he directly annexes the Ukrainian territory he occupies than is a more real threat. He would be defending the Motherland. Not saying he will do it but it something that require more thought in response.

Yes, but defending the Motherland from whom? From the Ukrainians? Russia cant nuke Ukraine because that would be the complete acknowledgment that Russia is weak and they need to use nuclear weapons to stop the Ukrainian army. That cannot be allowed to happen.

And there is nobody else to nuke, NATO is not attacking Russia.

[conon394]

Yes, but defending the Motherland from whom? From the Ukrainians? Russia cant nuke Ukraine because that would be the complete acknowledgment that Russia is weak and they need to use nuclear weapons to stop the Ukrainian army. That cannot be allowed to happen.

And there is nobody else to nuke, NATO is not attacking Russia.

I get that. The problem remains that this whole invasion was not logical or well thought out. And implemented with I dunno equal parts of ineptitude and hubris. I am not saying Putin 's foaming at the mouth insane. I don't think he is that. But he is increasingly running out of ways to paint this as any kind of victory go home and also a 'peace' where the Ukraine either stops fighting and also does not support an insurgency in what he has taken. He does seem like a man will to hold to the path he picked and he seems to holding both the Russian population and the elites around to that. Thus day by day I am not sure some kind of tactical nuclear use does become the next step. A tactical use against a Ukrainian mass of some of their best forces?

[Mithradates]

I get that. The problem remains that this whole invasion was not logical or well thought out. And implemented with I dunno equal parts of ineptitude and hubris. I am not saying Putin 's foaming at the mouth insane. I don't think he is that. But he is increasingly running out of ways to paint this as any kind of victory go home and also a 'peace' where the Ukraine either stops fighting and also does not support an insurgency in what he has taken. He does seem like a man will to hold to the path he picked and he seems to holding both the Russian population and the elites around to that. Thus day by day I am not sure some kind of tactical nuclear use does become the next step. A tactical use against a Ukrainian mass of some of their best forces?

I recon that the Ukrainians are aware of that and they are not massing troops in places to invite nukes, also I remember Zelensky saying that a nuclear strike against Ukraine will make them go on a full out war against Russia.

On a sidenote, NATO does not differentiate between tactical or strategic nukes, thats another reason why Russia shouldnt try their luck by deploying nuclear weapons.

[conon394]

I recon that the Ukrainians are aware of that and they are not massing troops in places to invite nukes, also I remember Zelensky saying that a nuclear strike against Ukraine will make them go on a full out war against Russia.

On a sidenote, NATO does not differentiate between tactical or strategic nukes, thats another reason why Russia shouldnt try their luck by deploying nuclear weapons.

One hopes not. But I am not counting out some kind of demonstration on not claimed Russian Ukraine out of the window. Not a strike on NATO that would be the path of lunacy but I just think a not high civilian target inside not Russian occupied territory is no longer a near zero proposition.

[Laser101]

Yes, but defending the Motherland from whom? From the Ukrainians? Russia cant nuke Ukraine because that would be the complete acknowledgment that Russia is weak and they need to use nuclear weapons to stop the Ukrainian army. That cannot be allowed to happen.

And there is nobody else to nuke, NATO is not attacking Russia.

The Russians have been claiming (not without reason) that the Ukrainian military is essentially an American/European proxy.

I don't think Putin cares too much about the implications of such an 'acknowledgement' either, since he can just prevent anyone in Russia from pointing it out.