Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Well those Members of "Syrian National Army" were firstly trained in USA and even taken part of First Libyan Civil War while getting Air Support from USA and his close Allies. I don´t think that such a civilized Country like USA would suppport openly terrorists (don´t get me wrong here, if those accusations against Turkey would be true, it would be very easy for the USA, EU and UN to prove it and it´s not possible to hide something like that). People should be more aware when Mainstream Media is manipulating them or even about the infollution on Social Media.

Nevermind the SNA, Turkey supports Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham which it itself designates as a terrorist organisation. Oops.

[swabian]

It’s incredible how bad things are going for Russia.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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This is interesting
Troops are saying no to officers, knowing that punishment is light while Russia is not technically at war

And you can say that again!

A month ago I would never have believed how incredibly desolate the state of their army is. Ironically, this entire Russian militaristic-chauvinistic culture is completely unfit for warfare, it's really pathetic.

The rot runs extremely deep, beginning with their horrific military service system which basically selects for incompetence by being so brutal and inhumane that everyone who has the ability to study at a university avoids it like the plague. Instead they rely on the recruitment of hastily trained asiatic boys from the poor countryside to avoid pissing off the Slavs in the big cities who produce significantly less children. As if that was not bad enough, Russian professional military service is mostly limited to only 4 years, which results in a huge lack of corporals and overall specialists. But more importantly it is now evident that Putin's military reforms in the last decade have been almost completely absorbed by the lovingly pampered and cared for swamp of Russian corruption. The authorities who have been given money to repair and upgrade gear simply pocketed the dough themselves to go and have some vodka and wenches (which is perfectly understandable in my opinion).

I'm now convinced that Ukraine has a very high chance of repelling this laughable attempt at an invasion. Russia's campaign is uniquely inefficient on so many levels it's mind boggling. The war effort costs them 0.5-1 billion A DAY! And it took them MONTHS to get only this far. Russia is done for! When this is over, Poland is likely going to overtake them economically.

Basically, I think the only means to turn this into a victory for Russia is a series of tactical nuclear strikes. Let's hope Putler attempts to save his purely imagined honor by committing seppuku. But there is no honor among thieves and I expect him to disappear suddenly in a couple of months and go into hiding together with his brat daughters and a couple of mafia/oligarch friends.

[Coughdrop addict]

I'm now convinced that Ukraine has a very high chance of repelling this laughable attempt at an invasion. Russia's campaign is uniquely inefficient on so many levels it's mind boggling. The war effort costs them 0.5-1 billion A DAY! And it took them MONTHS to get only this far. Russia is done for! When this is over, Poland is likely going to overtake them economically.

Some are even talking about Russia actually collapsing: https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...nce-of-russia/

And yet, it’s perfectly possible, possibly even probable. And the sooner the West starts thinking about what a Russian collapse will look like, the better — not because there is much we can do to stop it, but because it will have earth-shattering consequences for the world.
Putin believes that whatever problems arise within his realm must be the handiwork of foreign forces. Soviet leaders held similar views. In fact, the weaknesses of their states were the products of their dysfunctional political and economic systems and of policy mistakes the leaders made.

[swabian]

Could be weÂ’re starting to see PutinÂ’s plan to break NATO with energy restrictions come to fruition. Germany and Turkey are the weak links and while his plan largely failed with the former heÂ’s bound to have an easier time with Turkey, which imports about 50% of its gas supply from Russia. Maybe itÂ’s time for an unfortunate accident to disable Blue Stream; last year flows reached record highs.

Everyone is harping on about how awfully dependent Germany is on Russian gas. Like this dependency wasn't mutual. They should be afraid that Germany chooses to not buy their stuff anymore rather than the other way around.

Russia's economy has been less than suboptimal even before the war, thanks to the Kremlin's peerless incompetence, and now it's all but laid low. Putin's efforts (that is the efforts of his chief economist.. i forgot her name) to strengthen the Ruble, which is at a pre-war level again, are purely cosmetic and ultimately inconsequential. Likewise inconsequential is Putin's requirement for Germany and others to pay for their energy deliveries in Rubles. All of this is basically a huge Russian effort to bluff the own population and to an extent the world wide press. Russia's war effort is critically dependent on those energy deliveries, so it is extremely unlikely that Putin is really going to pull through with his nonsense. This charade is not worth the effect it has on the Russian warchest.
That they got the Ruble back up (briefly even above the pre-war level) may look good for the Kremlin and disheartening for others, but they can hardly buy anything with Rubles anymore lol so what's the big deal?!

By the way, this isn't even really representing their actual efforts to belatedly toughen up the Russian economy to war readiness. What they actually try to do is buying shares and stocks held by foreign investors at massive discounts in order to create a few massive corporations, like Gazprom, to get a more heavy handed hold on the economy. So basically Putin intensifies his pre-war policy that led to Russia's desolate state in the first place.


As for Germany, she can actually do without Russian energy imports according to the DIW (German Institute for Economic Research).

Alternative sources for coal and oil imports can be found with relative ease, meanwhile a replacement for Russian gas imports is a bit trickier, but not impossible at all. The dependency on gas in itself can be temporarily reduced by intensifying the usage of coal fired power plants and by connecting reserve power plants to the public energy net.
Actual alternatives to Russian gas could be found in form of liquid gas imports. These combined measures would reduce the dependency on Russian gas, coal and oil to naught and meanwhile this can only be a temporary solution, a substantial reduction of Russian imports would emerge to be permanent in the long run. Together with lasting sanctions, this would be catastrophic for Russia. They don't have a chance to keep up this war effort for long enough so that it hurts Germany too much.

On the other hand the DIW is very devoted to the German gov's green energy politics, if they suggest to intensify energy production by coal fueled power plants then I take this as evidence for considerable desperation.

[swabian]

Some are even talking about Russia actually collapsing: https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...nce-of-russia/

Yes, I believe so. But keep in mind that this will have a major effect on the world wide economy which is on the brink of drifting off into a recession anyhow. So everyone's enthusiasm on this outlook should be limited. It's time to perceive the Russians as what they really are: victims of their own corrupt elites and their unhinged President who now insists on absolutist authority. I honestly pity them. I also shudder thinking about the nuclear arms stockpile in the hands of a country with such a grim future.

[swabian]

oops... wtf. double post. Pls delete.

[StarDreamer]

Yes, I believe so. But keep in mind that this will have a major effect on the world wide economy which is on the brink of drifting off into a recession anyhow. So everyone's enthusiasm on this outlook should be limited. It's time to perceive the Russians as what they really are: victims of their own corrupt elites and their unhinged President who now insists on absolutist authority. I honestly pity them. I also shudder thinking about the nuclear arms stockpile in the hands of a country with such a grim future.

If a Russian collapse would happen I would not be very happy about it. The possibility of a lot of nukes suddenly disappearing god knows where is not a comforting thought. Also the instability it would cause in the world and especially in the region.
I would hope for a peaceful transition of power without a massive collapse, but I fear that is wishful thinking, Russia when it collapses always collapses into chaos.

[Nebaki]

No Turkey requested upgrades for the F-16s. Sounds like the Turkish Air Force needed them. And if this was for a debt, the US wouldn't be making Turkey pay for those F-35 upgrades.

https://eurasiantimes.com/why-turkey...rone-ship/?amp

Of course we are using "euroasiantimes" as Source i guess the ones from your own country which sounding today more rational not supporting your views on Turkey.

Those F-35s were needed for Turkey's new ship. Now it will be a drone carrier. Far less effective then having actual aircraft.

Those F-35s which can only be F-35B Variant was never on the Table and the purpose of an LHD was never to just serve as a light Aircraft Carrier. It seems it´s the new trend even now USA is going to build something which can serve as a Drone Carrier: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-navy-flattops

PKK operates freely in Sweden and Finland? Any citation for that?

Citation? here you got a Source: https://www.reuters.com/world/exclus...ys-2022-05-14/

Ah don´t come up with something like YPG/SDF is not PKK since they are even leaded by them and just a subsidiary or how would explain that People who were Members of the PKK now leading them?

Not my fault if you don't like the citations.

That´s not what you think should be called "citations" learn this before using those terms.

Go ahead and define it.

Here something from your own Country: https://www.fbi.gov/investigate/terrorism & https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/terrorism

Greece threatens to cut ties. In 1980. Or did you not read the date of your article?

The Article is not even talking about 1980 maybe you should first read it then just overfly it. Seriously your last posts was nothing beyond then a few sentences with empty contents.

Finland is not a Scandinavian Country, and we do not support the PKK. Unless you see all Kurds as PKK, we did for a short while support the Kurds in Northern Iraq when they were threatened by ISIS. I'm guessing you don't want to tell us that Turkey is part of ISIS?

Source please and don´t came up with something "Unless you see all Kurds as PKK" while even todays Turkish Gov. consists Kurds, Turkish Armed Forces is made up by 1/5 Kurds and even the Leadership of Turkish Intelligence Service is leaded by someone with Kurdish Origins.

But hey can you provide us the part when did ever Turkey supported ISIS if you are not seeing any Muslims or someone practicing Islam for his praying as Member of ISIS.

[StarDreamer]

Source please and don´t came up with something "Unless you see all Kurds as PKK" while even todays Turkish Gov. consists Kurds, Turkish Armed Forces is made up by 1/5 Kurds and even the Leadership of Turkish Intelligence Service is leaded by someone with Kurdish Origins.

But hey can you provide us the part when did ever Turkey supported ISIS if you are not seeing any Muslims or someone practicing Islam for his praying as Member of ISIS.

You are quite clearly misunderstanding me. You want me to provide a source on Finland having supported Kurds you don't consider hostile? I wanted a source on Finland having supported any terrorist(so considered by Turkey) Kurds. You haven't provided any source on that first case. I stated the only Kurds I know Finland has supported, you quite clearly don't seem to consider them to be the hostile ones. I can find you a source on that, however that would not move the discussion anywhere since it is a moot point. I partly threw it out so that you can also get a feel how unfounded, unsourced accusations feel.

Anyway your government has already told Finland that they had no problem with the Finnish membership, it was Sweden they had a gripe with.

[Nebaki]

Also Turks need not worry about having to send any troops to Finland. We are well able to defend ourselves with some support from more Northern NATO allies.

Although the finnish ground forces are trying to transform, Soviet-style weapons are common. Assault rifles are AK-series derivatives, and even Finnish-made ones are the best AK derivatives, according to most experts - their machine guns? - derivative PKMs. They still have vehicles like BTR, BMP, soviet artillery etc. in their inventory.

Even worse, the entire country's rail network is built to Russian rail gauge standards. Russian trains can be used directly on the Finnish rail network, which greatly simplifies logistics in a possible Russian operation. Although nice Ukraine was like that, but the Russian situation is obvious.

I´m just asking myself who are those Northern NATO allies? Norway? What we got else?

You are quite clearly misunderstanding me. You want me to provide a source on Finland having supported Kurds you don't consider hostile? I wanted a source on Finland having supported any terrorist(so considered by Turkey) Kurds. You haven't provided any source on that first case. I stated the only Kurds I know Finland has supported, you quite clearly don't seem to consider them to be the hostile ones. I can find you a source on that, however that would not move the discussion anywhere since it is a moot point. I partly threw it out so that you can also get a feel how unfounded, unsourced accusations feel.

Anyway your government has already told Finland that they had no problem with the Finnish membership, it was Sweden they had a gripe with.

Since 2014 many foreigners joined the so-called YPG which has of course nothing to do with the PKK in their so-called fight against Daesh/ISIS. How it comes some Turkish Outposts also was part of these raids and I´m not talking about some territory beyond which is not belonged to the Turkish Republic according to UN and rest of the World. There was of course some terorists of Finnish Origin. Turkey is expecting as simple as like that from a new Ally support in his new struggle and we are not even moving to the Issue with Sweden.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/world/21082017

Probably the Finnish support there is limited but there is a support for these groups which are hostile towards Turkey - call it Finnish Anti-Fa or whatever you want but some Finnish Officials are harbouring those People even Turkish Anti-Fa Members after they were part of crimes Series in Turkey. Of course Turkey cannot reach them in Finland or somewhere else in Scandinavia since these Countries are not part of NATO and Turkey is not part of European Union.

Nevermind the SNA, Turkey supports Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham which it itself designates as a terrorist organisation. Oops.

Turkey never supported such groups. Mostly it ended up that some splinter groups left- and re-joined them since there is no discipline under those groups - it´s a Militia which will have no purpose ones the War is over and some of them even change their Sides or join YPG/SDF from ISIS which is a known fact. It´s Syria and it will be probably even divided since the Support from Russia stagnates.

Probably Turkey then threaten them to cut-off their support but there is still influence from USA their former Overlord and from time to time USA is still acting there and making some offers.

[StarDreamer]

Although the finnish ground forces are trying to transform, Soviet-style weapons are common. Assault rifles are AK-series derivatives, and even Finnish-made ones are the best AK derivatives, according to most experts - their machine guns? - derivative PKMs. They still have vehicles like BTR, BMP, soviet artillery etc. in their inventory.

Even worse, the entire country's rail network is built to Russian rail gauge standards. Russian trains can be used directly on the Finnish rail network, which greatly simplifies logistics in a possible Russian operation. Although nice Ukraine was like that, but the Russian situation is obvious.

I´m just asking myself who are those Northern NATO allies? Norway? What we got else?




Since 2014 many foreigners joined the so-called YPG which has of course nothing to do with the PKK in their so-called fight against Daesh/ISIS. How it comes some Turkish Outposts also was part of these raids and I´m not talking about some territory beyond which is not belonged to the Turkish Republic according to UN and rest of the World. There was of course some terorists of Finnish Origin. Turkey is expecting as simple as like that from a new Ally support in his new struggle and we are not even moving to the Issue with Sweden.

https://www.rudaw.net/english/world/21082017

Probably the Finnish support there is limited but there is a support for these groups which are hostile towards Turkey - call it Finnish Anti-Fa or whatever you want but some Finnish Officials are harbouring those People even Turkish Anti-Fa Members after they were part of crimes Series in Turkey. Of course Turkey cannot reach them in Finland or somewhere else in Scandinavia since these Countries are not part of NATO and Turkey is not part of European Union.

So they might be Finnish citizens, but quite clearly no official support for them. Nor is there any indication that they have personally done anything against Turkey. Or if they returned from Syria or stayed there. Generally it is hard to prosecute anyone that did something in a foreign country unless there is overwhelming evidence. And while Turkey considers YPG the same as PKK I don't know if anyone else does.

However I will say that I don't support Finnish citizens going to that area(even if they are quite clearly ethnic Kurds). Also interesting that the article you got this info from was these YPG guys commenting on an ISIS(inspired?) attack in Finland. Quite a circle of terrorism if we take Turkeys word for it.

So yeah, lets get this straight, Finland does not support YPG or condone people going to join them. Finland can not control what its citizens outside Finland go do. Should we hold Turkey responsible for all crimes Turks do outside Turkey? I think it is likely these went there mainly to fight ISIS and affiliated groups. If Turkey has info on these mentioned guys attacking Turkey they should try to have them extradited.

Finland still isn't part of Scandinavia(use Nordic if you want to include us).

Regarding Antifa, your source doesn't mention them or mention anything about officials harbouring them. So I have no info on that.

[Bande Nere]

How did we go from the war in Ukraine to big bad international antifa making Great Leader Erdogan cry just by existing in Helsinki?

For the record US Special Forces were IN TERRITORY, openly fighing alongside YPG, so unless you believe the US sent their best soldiers to fight ALLIED TURKISH MILITARY INSIDE TURKEY alongside an organization the US considers terrorist as well(PKK), instead of fighting ISIS, I would close this discussion and go back to Ukraine.

[fkizz]

Pope Francis Says NATO Instigated War By 'Barking At Putin's Door,' Labeled CONSPIRACY THEORIST

To be fair, historically Jesuits were persecuted as dangerous conspirators, being labeled just a theorist is a signal that things are becoming more mellow.

He is trying to score some political points with certain Orthodox Churches. The Pope is thinking long-term in Catholic-Orthodox interests.

Even taking those two out, it has been a thing for The Vatican to stop showing hostility towards Russia since it "officially" stopped being USSR. From a Rome point of view this is one more war to the vast archive.
Or a way to appeal to Russians to look at Catholicism as an alternative to the Russian Church.

There are many possible angles here, given we're talking of a Pope-Jesuit.

But the invincible ignorance of this Pope is nothing new.

1) One thing is Pope's (or a Cardinal's) personal opinion, another is having to follow a Papal Bull. Two separate worlds. This was true even in Church power peak in early middle ages.
2) Faith is low nowadays like the Marxists always wanted.
3) Since Vatican Concilium II Liturgical Reform, the most Zealous Catholic movements who survived modern secular world have always proliferated Sedevecantists, diplomatically tolerated by the Church.
4) Rand Paul who is stalling 40$ billion USD aid to Ukraine is Presbytarian/Protestant, not a Catholic.

[Laser101]

Some are even talking about Russia actually collapsing: https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...nce-of-russia/

I've seen this idea a couple of times recently, but it seems like wishful thinking; quite frankly, Russia breaking apart doesn't seem any more likely than the US doing so.

There are two major differences between RF and the USSR:
1) Russia has a well-established unified national identity that the Soviet Union did not. Remember that the population is >75% ethnic Russian, and other than the Caucasus there aren't any significant potential separatist areas with any support to speak of.
2) The republics of the USSR had established local governments and identities which were able to take authority away from the central government. The same is not true of regional divisions in Russia.

[Nebaki]

So they might be Finnish citizens, but quite clearly no official support for them. Nor is there any indication that they have personally done anything against Turkey. Or if they returned from Syria or stayed there. Generally it is hard to prosecute anyone that did something in a foreign country unless there is overwhelming evidence. And while Turkey considers YPG the same as PKK I don't know if anyone else does.

The same guys are working for something they call PKK or even YPG and are yelling "Freedom for Kurdistan" but how it comes only Turkey sees that like that or how it comes everyone else is in that case blind. PKK is in Turkey, YPG is in Syria and something else they call themselve in Iraq & Iran.

However I will say that I don't support Finnish citizens going to that area(even if they are quite clearly ethnic Kurds). Also interesting that the article you got this info from was these YPG guys commenting on an ISIS(inspired?) attack in Finland. Quite a circle of terrorism if we take Turkeys word for it.

The Source is from Kurdish Rudaw not a Source of Turkish origin or even Neutral one. I will provide you soon some different cases which are too including Finland aswell embargos are being imposed. If Finland has no Problem with Turkey then why even jumping to the Bandwagon?

So yeah, lets get this straight, Finland does not support YPG or condone people going to join them. Finland can not control what its citizens outside Finland go do. Should we hold Turkey responsible for all crimes Turks do outside Turkey? I think it is likely these went there mainly to fight ISIS and affiliated groups. If Turkey has info on these mentioned guys attacking Turkey they should try to have them extradited.

Finland of course cannot control anything what they done outside of Finland but ones they did whatever they have done they return to Finland. Some cases are just pretty obvious and still nothing happens to them since it happened somewhere where Finland does not have control over it.

Which ISIS? The ones who get bombed from USA Air Force and someone needs to check it up if someone is left over? Don´t be a Fool in some Areas there wasn´t even ISIS but some Left-Extremists appeared to do some work.

Finland still isn't part of Scandinavia(use Nordic if you want to include us).

Well then those Countries which are tied together somewhere very Nordic in Europe. Norway is Nato and then for example Finland joins - so why then someone would need Sweden? Why should Sweden even bother to join it would be already secured and still improve his hostile actions against Turkey.

Regarding Antifa, your source doesn't mention them or mention anything about officials harbouring them. So I have no info on that.

Some of these guys like from Turkish Anti-Fa which are asking for political asylum and getting later becaming citizien in European Countries like Finland, Germany, Netherlands or Sweden - we got too France here but that case is a little bit different - instead leaving anything behind they restart their hostilities against Turkey but this time from that European Countries. They are founding some charity like Organistations and some politicians who need their votes doing what for exchange for their trust? I can you can guess it.

[Vanoi]

How many NATO countries have the YPG listed as a terror organization again? Oh, just Turkey who pretty much accuses any Kurdish group as being separatists including the only Kurdish party in Turkish parliament.

[swabian]

I've seen this idea a couple of times recently, but it seems like wishful thinking; quite frankly, Russia breaking apart doesn't seem any more likely than the US doing so.

Incredibly disqualifying nonsense of the highest order, btw.

[Nebaki]

How many NATO countries have the YPG listed as a terror organization again?

Former President of Turkey (The 8th) threaten even Syria with War for expulsion of the Leader of PKK - just rebranding your Name does not gives you a free ticket even if your perception admits that.

Oh, just Turkey who pretty much accuses any Kurdish group as being separatists including the only Kurdish party in Turkish parliament.

Do you need some evidence again? for example we got this feel free to use a translator if you don´t understand Turkish.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

https://twitter.com/volkan_giritli/s...08142192500736

I'm waiting

[Laser101]

Incredibly disqualifying nonsense of the highest order, btw.

You mean the idea of Russia breaking up or America? Neither seems particularly plausible.

[Nebaki]

Looks like the negotiations started with Turkey and some Nordic Countries:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

According to someone Mr. Erdogan just wants make a show but that Monument behind him is just Dardanelles Martyrs Memorial:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

I'm waiting