Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Lord Thesaurian]

It’s not just gas. Germany, like Russia and the rest of Europe, is rapidly aging and dying off. They’ll need strong consumer markets for their exports since domestic consumption will continue to weaken, and Russia and China are the only other games in town besides the US. That’s why not just Germany but pretty much all of Western Europe besides the UK has comparatively drug their feet signing onto the US containment strategy. We can leverage our domestic energy resources to reorient economically away from China, but the other great powers are extremely dependent on imports and foreign capital.

The globalization that has allowed major economic blocs like the EU and China to freeride on US capital markets and undisputed USN protection of trade lanes is breaking down, and this will compound their economic problems as individual countries are forced to do their own security for the first time in decades. The biggest longterm threat to Europe is strategic irrelevance and being left behind by the US and Asia. That’s partly why Putin is banking on divide and conquer to secure a sphere of influence for the Kremlin in an effort to stave off Russia’s own demographic and other internal disasters. A Ukraine utterly dependent on Moscow and a Europe dependent on Russian gas, in one way or another, is key to this strategy. On the flipside, Germany’s export market is already as dependent on Russia as on her western neighbors. It’s possible a Cold War style alliance will consist of smaller countries huddling for warmth under the US for the economic benefits, but I don’t see the old unipolar order ever coming back. And that will be as economically bad for China and Russia as anyone else.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Biden doesn’t want to put the US military in Russia’s path, either because it’s the path of least resistance or because he thinks Ukraine will turn into another Afghanistan for Russia. The Washington establishment is stuck in 1995, so the military is left rudderless as it seeks to move beyond the Cold War and counter-terror playbooks to confront new existential challenges of the 21st century. I suspect the net result will be retrenchment, since long-term it’s more cost effective to have Russia and China bogged down fighting their neighbors and enforcing their spheres than constantly trying to maintain, through high tech deterrence, the global system that gives China and Russia easy access to markets in the first place. The US is losing interest in larping as Atlas for the world, and if Ukraine ultimately becomes a battleground, that will be a green light to the PRC vis a vis Taiwan. Dominoes. Residual military strength, allies to the north and south, and two oceans to the east and west may protect the US’ core sphere of influence from being blasted apart by good old fashioned territorial wars, but the rest of the world won’t be so lucky.

Gotta say I love the mass psychosis here and elsewhere. Keep supporting Nazi regimes, guys.

Gais can’t you see Russia is just trying to stop the Nazis again??

[Cookiegod]

Neo-Nazis around the world overwhelmingly side with Russia against Ukraine. Must be because Ukraine is led by Nazis...

Aha, do they now?



What nice Russian flags there.

But surely this has changed, right?!

Surely at the very least they wouldn't be hyped up even by Western media, right?!





Let's ignore for a sec that Ukrainian snipers wound and kill civilians there regularly and just focus on the person.

She didn't get picked by the Sun for being a particularly good shot. She got picked for being semifamous due to having a blog of her own. That blog won an award by Germany's Deutsche Welle as the "best Ukrainian blog of 2013".

So let's check that blog out, shall we?

By the way, I'll tell you a seditious thing now: Monuments to Hitler will stand again. Not in Kiev [because we have our own], but in Berlin.

Visiting some Sodomites
*Cheerful retelling of how they crashed a gay bookpresentation and beat the people inside up, complete with photos, including one of fairly passive police.*

To each his own! (Regarding the question of internationalism)
*Nice pic of her having a black man service her shoes*
And seriously, about my attitude to N... - then everything is simple:

Towards those, that don't live in Ukraine, - I'm neutral.
Those who live in Ukraine - they're a threat. But at this point in history - not the main threat.
[IMG][/IMG]
*responding to a comment that she should've let him lick her shoes clean:* The enemy should lick them, but he's just a n...
*commentor responds with: Oh right, at least he's not a turk*

Social-Nationalist Convention
*retelling about how happy she was about the first social nationalist convention in Kiev, with plenty of pics. Since we indubitably will have some peeps here in the crowd opinining that that's not the same as National-Socialism: This is from the time of the bloody dictatorship, when outright neonazism was forbidden. But it's not like they tried hard hiding it:*

*Money quote:* Discipline über alles.
*At the end she mourns that they sadly didn't make a torch march. But don't worry, those are taking place in Ukraine on the regular now.*

She also has a great youtube channel btw.

Which of course is also completely free of Nazis, since as we all know thanks to Prodromos, it's not like Ukraine has Nazis:


Or to phrase it as beautifully as totally-not-propaganda Deutsche Welle did after having been made aware of her posts in the blog they just had prized it as the best blog 2013:

In her blog, Belozerskaya repeatedly speaks out for diversity of opinion and freedom of expression, the rule of law and democracy, calls for an independent Ukraine, and the country's inclusion to Europe. The blog touches on a wide range of social issues and civil society issues. In the transforming Ukrainian society, which is characterised by a crisis of national identity, and also brings up controversial positions for discussion. [...]
The importance of the blog is confirmed by a large number of supporters from the Ukrainian society, media, and politics, including Yuriy Luzenko.

[antaeus]

Gotta say I love the mass psychosis here and elsewhere. Keep supporting Nazi regimes, guys. :thumbs_up:

Cookiegod picked a side! prepare for a giant post accusing the other side of being Nazis. That always justifies an invasion.

[Cookiegod]

Cookiegod picked a side! prepare for a giant post accusing the other side of being Nazis. That always justifies an invasion.

What invasion am I justifying exactly?

[Lord Thesaurian]

Neo-Nazis around the world overwhelmingly side with Russia against Ukraine. Must be because Ukraine is led by Nazis...

True. If one looks at the reaction of Russia’s neighbors to Putin’s imperial larping, one wonders if whatever he got for it was worth it geopolitically.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

That is, unless you count libertarian warmongers:




However, there’s one demographic which might explain why he’s willing to throw international relations in the toilet:

If Putin doesn’t invade, the fact he was nevertheless willing to risk tanking the Russian economy even harder, galvanizing NATO, and wasting resources on “training exercises,” might suggest all is not well at home, if all that was preferable to not doing it at all. And while Russian and Chinese efforts are increasingly coordinated these days, I doubt it was only because he’s doing Beijing a favor.

[Cookiegod]

If Putin doesn’t invade, the fact he was nevertheless willing to risk tanking the Russian economy even harder, galvanizing NATO, and wasting resources on “training exercises,” might suggest all is not well at home, if all that was preferable to not doing it at all. And while Russian and Chinese efforts are increasingly coordinated these days, I doubt it was only because he’s doing Beijing a favor.

At legios request:

[antaeus]

At legios request:

Ahhh the tricky wordsmith.

As the big child in the schoolyard leans in towards the weak with fist hovering in the air... one does not need to express their threats literally. They can be implied by all sorts of statements and actions.

What invasion am I justifying exactly?

Again the tricky wordsmith.

You've implied that one side of a conflict is all Nazis. The leader of the other has assembled a large force on the border while stating your Nazis aren't really their own people...

Again... threats don't need to be literal. The threat of invasion is implied by the assemblage of force on a scale with other logical purpose.

[Heathen Hammer]

Putin's boomeresque musings on history aside, moving troops to your borders is the oldest saber-rattling trick in the book (well aside from beating your shield against your spear lol). Russia does it, Ukraine does it, DPR and LPR do it, every NATO state does it.
You have to come up with a better story as to why Rusophobic tantrums of Western ruling parasite class should be taken seriously this time.

[Vanoi]

Ukraine is not an EU or NATO member state.

Cool I never said they were.

Germany is no more obliged to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity than it was in 2014. More to the point, Germany lacks the military capability to challenge Russia directly independently of the US. Washington’s non-interventionist policy precluded the possibility of direct German involvement, even had Berlin favoured it (which it doesn’t).

Continuing to state the obvious.

As for the eastern states, Germany’s military ineffectiveness and preference for economic symbiosis with Russia has been known for decades. None of this is a surprise. The bizarre suggestion that economic co-dependence (upon which the EU itself was founded) will cause an EU implosion (it won’t) undercuts the prior claim that it a Russian incursion of Ukraine will galvanize the West (it won’t).

Actually it will. If Germany is unwilling to stop Russia or at least oppose their efforts to invade Ukraine it only sends a message to other Eastern Europe EU states that Germany will abandon you.

As you have so kindly pointed it out Germany doesn't have a military capable of taking on Russia. So what would Germany even do if Russia starts the same provocations against Eastern European EU members? Only thing Germany seems willing to do is appease Putin. Appeasement didn't work in 1938 and it certainly wouldn't work now.

[antaeus]

Putin's boomeresque musings on history aside, moving troops to your borders is the oldest saber-rattling trick in the book (well aside from beating your shield against your spear lol). Russia does it, Ukraine does it, DPR and LPR do it, every NATO state does it.
You have to come up with a better story as to why Rusophobic tantrums of Western ruling parasite class should be taken seriously this time.

It is also the oldest trick in the book as a preparation for an attack.

Always plan for what an adversary is capable of doing, not what you think they will do.

[Heathen Hammer]

It is also the oldest trick in the book as a preparation for an attack.

Always plan for what an adversary is capable of doing, not what you think they will do.

Yes and no. I wouldn't invade before or during rasputitsa. So neither Ukraine nor Russia will do anything other then place units around the map with hostile intent. Come May though, who knows.
Ideal scenario is that Russia strikes a deal with Ukrainian nationalists bypassing Kiev regime, allowing for Russian regions to split off without hostilities as former take over government in the Western half. Then freshly-minted Ukrainian ethnostate could get some gas deals and other benefits (maybe allowed to work in Russia without Visa and take school there too) from Russia and patchy Russian-Ukrainian relations are somewhat fixed.

[Ludicus]

Europe faces climbing energy bills.The second Nord Stream 2 string is being filled with natural gas. The US Ambassador in Germany Richard Grenell threatens German firms,warning them of "a significant risk of sanctions" if they did not pull out of the project, and the US State Department has said the Nord Stream 2 project will not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine. Nord Stream 2 pipeline could be axed, US warns
Norway cannot replace any missing supplies from Russia. Qatar has said it will not be able to unilaterally replace Europe's energy needs. The US production of gas has exceeded domestic demand by about 10% and gas exports do not hurt U.S. consumers. The US is winning the last fossil fuel gold rush
Meanwhile, Russia lifted its volumes of gas exports by 20%. In any case, if the American threat materializes,the American LNG cannot not entirely replace Russian gas. Because Europe relies on imports to meet its gas natural gas needs, who benefits more from the present situation? Russia, the US and of course, the military industrial complex.It’s not Europe.

--

Meanwhile Ukraine's oligarchs are fleeing from Ukraine.
Ukraine's oligarchs fleeing the country

It seems that Ukraine finally get rid of its oligarchs... A "reborn" Ukraine is now ready to join the NATO, a "promoter of democracies".
---
"Bowing to the reality that Ukraine won’t join NATO anytime soon" Ukraine links arms with Turkey, Poland and UK as NATO membership remains distant

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Europe faces climbing energy bills.The second Nord Stream 2 string is being filled with natural gas. The US Ambassador in Germany Richard Grenell threatens German firms,warning them of "a significant risk of sanctions" if they did not pull out of the project, and the US State Department has said the Nord Stream 2 project will not move forward if Russia invades Ukraine. Nord Stream 2 pipeline could be axed, US warns
Norway cannot replace any missing supplies from Russia. Qatar has said it will not be able to unilaterally replace Europe's energy needs. The US production of gas has exceeded domestic demand by about 10% and gas exports do not hurt U.S. consumers. The US is winning the last fossil fuel gold rush
Meanwhile, Russia lifted its volumes of gas exports by 20%. In any case, if the American threat materializes,the American LNG cannot not entirely replace Russian gas. Because Europe relies on imports to meet its gas natural gas needs, who benefits more from the present situation? Russia, the US and of course, the military industrial complex.It’s not Europe.

Only one addition:

— As Russian troops mass on the country’s border with Ukraine, U.S. imports from the Eurasian giant are on track to reach about $30 billion this year. That would be their highest level since 2012, two years before Russia invaded parts of eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea.

https://www.politico.com/newsletters...-levels-799429

Interestingly the US are only talking about german dependancy on natural gas and North Stream 2 going forever offline in case of an invasion, but no word about their own crude oil imports from Russia.

I wonder why...

[Vanoi]

I wonder why...

You do know oil imports from Russia only account for less than 1% of all US oil imports right?



But hey let's make a deal. The US stops importing oil from Russia and in turn Germany stops buying Russian gas. Deal?

[antaeus]

Yes and no. I wouldn't invade before or during rasputitsa. So neither Ukraine nor Russia will do anything other then place units around the map with hostile intent. Come May though, who knows.
Ideal scenario is that Russia strikes a deal with Ukrainian nationalists bypassing Kiev regime, allowing for Russian regions to split off without hostilities as former take over government in the Western half. Then freshly-minted Ukrainian ethnostate could get some gas deals and other benefits (maybe allowed to work in Russia without Visa and take school there too) from Russia and patchy Russian-Ukrainian relations are somewhat fixed.

[Ludicus]

but no word about their own crude oil imports from Russia.I wonder why...

Why,that's a good point to consider.US reliance on Russian oil hits record high despite souring ties

--

...if Germany stops buying Russian gas. Deal?

Already two years ago (2020) the state minister in Germany's foreign ministry, Niels Annen said the German government regards the threat of sanctions to be intolerable,arguing that Europe would make itself susceptible to "blackmail" if does not counter US actions.Outrage in Germany
Its nothing new: threats and economic blackmail, if necessary.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

From all countries:

278,945

272,667

270,082

267,931

251,790

254,162

From Russia with Love:

25,427

23,595

24,637

18,887

19,679

17,855

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOVE_IMPCUS_A2_NUS_EP00_IM0_MBBL_M.htm

Not true, the US import between 5-8 % of their crude oil.

[Vanoi]

278,945

272,667

270,082

267,931

251,790

254,162

25,427

23,595

24,637

18,887

19,679

17,855

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/PET_MOV...IM0_MBBL_M.htm

Not true, the US import between 5-8 % of their crude oil.

Lie to someone else.

My point is that oil imports from Russia are insignificant. Unlike the Germans and Europeans the US is not dependent on Russian fossil fuels. Don't even see the reason to bring up Russian oil.exports to the US unless you were that ignorant that you didn't realize they were pretty insignificant.

Btw your math is horribly off. According to your own link the US imported around 200,000 to 300,000 barrels of oil from Russia in 2020

That's out of a total of over 3 billion barrels of oil imported per year in the US. 200,000 barrels of oil out of 3.4 billion is not 5 to 8 percent of US oil imports. You need to go back to math class.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Here’s a sunny assessment for NATO. Tbf this guy’s bias is that he thinks Russia is doomed to internally collapse as a state, to the extent that’s relevant. So yeah, sunny.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=yYGDfBKCoO4

Crimean War 2.0? I do agree though that I don’t see how Putin climbs down from this without losing face domestically and internationally.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

https://www.eia.gov/about/

Russia is supplying more oil to the U.S. than any other foreign producer aside from Canada as American refiners scour the globe for gasoline-rich feedstocks to feed surging motor-fuel demand.

U.S. imports of crude and refined petroleum products from its former Cold War adversary surged 23% in May to 844,000 barrels a day from the prior month, government data showed. Mexico was edged out of the No. 2 spot as its shipments to its northern neighbor rose by less than 3%.
Russia has become a favored source for U.S. fuel makers largely because it producers ample supplies of semi-refined oils such as Mazut 100, an ideal feedstock for American refineries accustomed to processing thick, sludgy crude from Venezuela and the Middle East. Cargoes from the former dried up due to sanctions, and OPEC-orchestrated output limits have crimped shipments from the latter, leaving an opening for Russian exporters.

The rise in Russian shipments is happening despite intensifying rancor between Washington and the Kremlin over a controversial pipeline that will haul Siberian gas to Germany. But in the absence of actual sanctions, U.S. companies are not bound by the diplomatic and geopolitical goals of the White House.
Russian feedstock “seems to be functioning as a good substitute for Venezuelan oil, particularly in the high-demand summer season,” said Shirin Lakhani, director of global oil service at Rapidan Energy Group.


Despite Russia’s ascendence, it’s no threat to Canada’s preeminence as the largest foreign crude supplier to the world’s biggest economy. In fact, Canada accounts for almost half of U.S. imports, delivering almost five times as much as Russia, the data showed.
Nevertheless, the importance of the U.S. market looms large in Moscow, where Federal Customs Service records show America is the single largest buyer of the nation’s heavy-oil products, the category that includes Mazut 100. U.S. buyers absorbed almost one-fifth of Russian heavy-oil exports during the first five months of the year.
READ: U.S. Thirst for Russian Oil Hits Record High Despite Tough Talk
Most of the U.S.-bound Russian crude has docked along the West Coast to feed refineries like Phillips 66’s plant 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of Seattle and California refineries owned by Chevron Corp. and Valero Energy Corp., government data showed.

Refiners in Texas and Louisiana also have been buying Russian oil products; just last week, 1.5 million barrels from the Black and Baltic seas landed in the region. The influx was substantial enough to cut prices at the Houston Ship Channel by 3% earlier this week.
Benchmark Price

Going forward, Russian shipments to U.S. shores appear bound to increase as the Middle East benchmark that governs the nation’s oil exports comes under pressure from slowly rising output by OPEC and its allies, Rapidan’s Lakhani said.
Lower prices relative to other available sources of similar fuel oils will invite even more purchasing, she said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ppliers-to-u-s

Hmm, should i trust EIA and Bloomberg or a guy called Vanoi?

I think i trust the former.