Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Cope]

NATO wants to, but cannot, and knows it. Ukraine war follows decades of warnings that NATO expansion into Eastern Europe could provoke Russia. Zelensky, by now, accepts...Zelensky open to Ukrainian 'neutrality' and negotiations over Donbas

Somehow I doubt this same standard is going to be applied to the "decades" of EU expansion into eastern Europe (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Finland the Baltic states).

[Mithradates]

Russia is tightening the siege on Mariupol where about 160,000 people are stranded in a city where there is no power and the current temperatures are very low.
The time has come for Zelensky to have the courage to realize the lives of Ukrainians are more important than an unrealistic patriotic resistance,which only leads to more needless deaths and endless suffering.

You dont give in to terrorists. If you do, they will come back for more.
Also, Zelensky about Mariupol defenders: I allowed them to leave the city, they refused
Furthermore, Russia isnt "tightening the siege on Mariupol", they are purposefully starving the city because they only want the city, they dont want the pro-Ukrainian citizens and the trouble what comes with them, thats why they deport people from Mariupol by the thousands to Russia, thats why they kidnap children by the thousands and send them to Russia, and thats why they dont let humanitarian aid in.

[PointOfViewGun]

Those who hide behind the claim that NATO promised Russia that it would not expand eastward, how do they reconcile knowing the fact that Russia established Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that added Belarus to the pact in 1994? Out of all the countries in question, only Belarus turned out to be belligerent against its neighbors.

[conon394]

NATO wants to, but cannot, and knows it. Ukraine war follows decades of warnings that NATO expansion into Eastern Europe could provoke Russia

Aww I thought IRT said great powers get to do what they want (or at least according to the guy you like linking too). And sans nuclear weapons Russia is not even a great power. But who cares. Poland and Romania and the Baltics where supposed to just be Russian toys because Putin wanted that?

And really Ludicus when did you become a Putin hand holder. Compare Poland (EU and NATO post USSR) and Ukraine that stayed in Russia orbit (till it realized what crap bad deal it was getting) which one do pick to live starting in 1990?

[Sir Adrian]

NATO wants to, but cannot, and knows it. Ukraine war follows decades of warnings that NATO expansion into Eastern Europe could provoke Russia. Zelensky, by now, accepts...Zelensky open to Ukrainian 'neutrality' and negotiations over Donbas

Nice story except that NATO last expanded east in 2004, 18 years ago. In those intervening 18 years Russia has seized every opportunity to move its border closer to NATO and has intervened in or escalated 4 conflicts right on NATO's border (5 if you count Transdnistria)

I wonder what the Putin fans would say if NATO intervened in third-party wars in places like Belarus, Khazakhstan, Ukraine, Mongolia or Georgia, just like Russia did in Syria, Ukraine, Kosovo, Georgia, Transdnistria.

[Alastor]

A very interesting article on censorship, in the background of this recent war and beyond:
https://scheerpost.com/2022/03/28/he...g-disappeared/

The Ukraine war, which I denounced as a “criminal war of aggression” when it began, is a sterling example. Any effort to put it into historical context, to suggest that the betrayal of agreements by the West with Moscow, which I covered as a reporter in Eastern Europe during the collapse of the Soviet Union, along with the expansion of NATO might have baited Russia into the conflict, is dismissed. Nuance. Complexity. Ambiguity. Historical context. Self-criticism. All are banished.

[Cope]

A very interesting article on censorship, in the background of this recent war and beyond:
https://scheerpost.com/2022/03/28/he...g-disappeared/

This is nothing new.

At any given moment there is an orthodoxy, a body of ideas of which it is assumed that all right-thinking people will accept without question. It is not exactly forbidden to say this, that or the other, but it is “not done” to say it… Anyone who challenges the prevailing orthodoxy finds himself silenced with surprising effectiveness. A genuinely unfashionable opinion is almost never given a fair hearing, either in the popular press or in the high-brow periodicals.”

Orwell.

[Condottiere 40K]

1. Funny story.

2. Apparently, the reason the external information chiefs got jailed is because the embezzled all those billions that Putin had been investing in propping up opposition parties in Ukraine.

3. And supposedly establishing networks that would overthrow the Ukrainian government the moment the Russian armoured columns pushed past the Ukrainian border.

4. It could have conceivably worked, people do lots of stuff for enough money.

5. Apparently, there were two sets of accounting books, about how much money was being paid out.

6. Still, workable.

7. However, they were paid so little, they became double agents, apparently.

8. That would explain that unsupported air assault to Kiev airport.

9. They were expecting a welcoming party, that would support them as they decapitated the Ukrainian government and occupied official buildings.

A. They got one; presumably, the Ukrainian double agents led them down the primrose path.

B. The Russians are calling in Armenians and those guys in Georgia as auxiliaries.

C. I think four Armenian Frogfoots plus pilots.

D. You can't blame them, without Russian support their country would be screwed.

E. Also, Armenia is acting as a collection point for all those hired Syrians.

F. Sort of reminds of Chinese assassination hierarchy.

G. The original contract is put out, but if for some reason, the money's not enough, or the contractor doesn't feel like doing it himself, it gets subcontracted at a lower price.

H. This could continue for several tiers, until the money is so watered down, that the last link on the chain just goes to the target, and asks him to pretend to be dead, so that everyone else can collect up the chain.

I. The Russians could always ransom back their tanks from Ukraine.

J. This sort of reminds of that Cage movie, the Lord of War.

K. But I think his uncle was Ukrainian.

L. I wonder who the Russian depots was selling the spare parts to?

M. Considering the indicated location, maybe over the border to the Ukrainians?

N. That may explain the suicide.

O. Someone has poisoned Abramovich.

P. Maybe Putin thought he was giving away too much.

[EmperorBatman999]

A very interesting article on censorship, in the background of this recent war and beyond:
https://scheerpost.com/2022/03/28/he...g-disappeared/
[/FONT][/COLOR]

This is nothing new.

Maybe, if Russia had earnestly made an attempt to democratize after Yeltsin and swallow its prideful obsession with political hegemony, it could have joined the Western community and become a leader in its right side-by-side with Europe and the United States. Alas, Russia chose to stay in its old ways and remained an unfriendly neighbor to Europe and Asia, and was thus marginalized. This was really all Russia's doing. Russia could have been significantly more powerful and respected today had they chosen to join democracy and the West, than to fight it.

[Cope]

Maybe, if Russia had earnestly made an attempt to democratize after Yeltsin and swallow its prideful obsession with political hegemony, it could have joined the Western community and become a leader in its right side-by-side with Europe and the United States. Alas, Russia chose to stay in its old ways and remained an unfriendly neighbor to Europe and Asia, and was thus marginalized. This was really all Russia's doing. Russia could have been significantly more powerful and respected today had they chosen to join democracy and the West, than to fight it.

That's probably true, but I don't see how its related to the suppression of unfashionable viewpoints.

[Alastor]

This is nothing new.

It most certainly is not. But we do live in societies that pride themselves in not doing that anymore. To the point where many people believe the lie. It's useful to have the occasional reminder that it's really not the case.

[Cyclops]

A very interesting article on censorship, in the background of this recent war and beyond:
https://scheerpost.com/2022/03/28/he...g-disappeared/
[/FONT][/COLOR]

Its a very fair point and there's a lot of angles to this, in terms of censorship and propaganda. Just in the US market there's the tendency to break things down into Red/Blue gotchas, which has led Dems to go on a Russia-cancelling spree (down to the Russian mustards at the Museum of Mustard!)and some Reps to weirdly side with Putin (as much a hangover of Trumps fanboying as the need to contradict the bad Blue Men).

There's Twitter accounts of US vets serving in Ukraine, which of course may or may not be real, but they in turn have attracted parasitic clones seeking to feed, putting out cash requests etc.

I feel bad that I laugh at the memes, as while they are funny there's a strong element of "opinion shapers" driving the agenda. I had to laugh at the "Russian General Jurssy Smollettski attacked by Nazis in Odessa" one, but there are wannabe Nazis in Ukraine. The general tone has been divisive, and will make coexistence for Russia and Ukraine difficult once the war is done.

People suggesting the Cyber war will follow, I feel like there's a bit been going on for some time. Netflix and some educational sites were down for several periods in the last week. Maybe the US and EU are winning it though, I suspect that's a big part of Russia's voluntary e-isolation.

[EmperorBatman999]

That's probably true, but I don't see how its related to the suppression of unfashionable viewpoints.

I suppose I had fixed myself onto Hedge's remarks about NATO (which he has also stated in other statements on the Ukraine War), rather than the substance of the idea of informational suppression.

For informational suppression: Hedges is allowed to write and come onto talk shows and podcasts to discuss the conflict, isn't he? He may still write and get readership, can't he? I saw Hedges's appearance on Katie Halper's podcast, which has generally cast an unfavorable outlook to the Ukrainian side, posted front-and-center on my main YouTube feed.

[Ludicus]

'I am a lawyer, he is an actor' – Orbán responds to Zelensky's criticism of Hungary's Neutrality..

They cannot ask us to destroy ourselves for them

First time I agree with Orban. Biden says this war will take years. Biden's comments are in line with the strategy of the American administration to prolong this war in the hope that it might lead to regime change in Russia, as they have been used to doing for decades in other countries. That probability is very small. Remember, Russia is a nuclear power, not the Hussein regime. Europe must not accept a new Afghanistan near its borders. The United States is far away, it will be affected little or not at all. Ukraine war is an economic catastrophe to Europe, and will be even more so as time goes by. Americans vote with their wallets, they understand well what I say.If there was the mere possibility that there was an Afghanistan on his doorstep, Biden would have already called Putin and the war would be over the next day. Europe should not accept to be part of this game of geopolitical competition that does not benefit it, and that only harms it enormously.

Listen to Niall Ferguson, read the whole article Putin Misunderstands History. So, Unfortunately, Does the U.S.

Excerpts,

The administration will continue to supply the Ukrainians with anti-aircraft Stingers, antitank Javelins and explosive Switchblade drones. It will keep trying to persuade other North Atlantic Treaty Organization governments to supply heavier defensive weaponry. I have evidence from other sources to corroborate this. “The only end game now,” a senior administration official was heard to say at a private event earlier this month, “is the end of Putin regime. Until then, all the time Putin stays, [Russia] will be a pariah state that will never be welcomed back into the community of nations. I gather that senior British figures are talking in similar terms. There is a belief that “the U.K.’s No. 1 option is for the conflict to be extended and thereby bleed Putin.” Again and again, I hear such language. It helps explain, among other things, the lack of any diplomatic effort by the U.S. to secure a cease-fire. It also explains the readiness of President Joe Biden to call Putin a war criminal.
Now, I may be too pessimistic. I would very much like to share Francis Fukuyama’s optimism that “Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine.” Here is his bold prediction from March 10 (also here):
The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. … Putin will not survive the defeat of his army … A Russian defeat will make possible a “new birth of freedom,” and get us out of our funk about the declining state of global democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a bunch of brave Ukrainians.
From his laptop to God’s ears.
It would indeed be wonderful if the combination of attrition in Ukraine and a sanctions-induced financial crisis at home led to Putin’s downfall. Take that, China! Just you try the same trick with Taiwan — which, by the way, we care about a lot more than Ukraine because of all those amazing semiconductors they make at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
The fascinating thing about this strategy is the way it combines cynicism and optimism. It is, when you come to think of it, archetypal Realpolitik to allow the carnage in Ukraine to continue; to sit back and watch the heroic Ukrainians “bleed Russia dry”; to think of the conflict as a mere sub-plot in Cold War II, a struggle in which China is our real opponent.
The Biden administration not only thinks it’s doing enough to sustain the Ukrainian war effort, but not so much as to provoke Putin to escalation. It also thinks it’s doing enough to satisfy public opinion, which has rallied strongly behind Ukraine, but not so much as to cost American lives, aside from a few unlucky volunteers and journalists.
The optimism, however, is the assumption that allowing the war to keep going will necessarily undermine Putin’s position; and that his humiliation in turn will serve as a deterrent to China. I fear these assumptions may be badly wrong and reflect a misunderstanding of the relevant history.
Prolonging the war runs the risk not just of leaving tens of thousands of Ukrainians dead and millions homeless, but also of handing Putin something that he can plausibly present at home as victory. Betting on a Russian revolution is betting on an exceedingly rare event, even if the war continues to go badly for Putin; if the war turns in his favor, there will be no palace coup.
As for China, I believe the Biden administration is deeply misguided in thinking that its threats of secondary sanctions against Chinese companies will deter President Xi Jinping from providing economic assistance to Russia.
In the east, according to military experts whom I trust, there is a significant risk that the Ukrainian positions near the Donbas will come under serious threat in the coming weeks. In the south, a battalion-sized Chechen force is closing in on the besieged and 80%-destroyed city of Mariupol. The Ukrainian defenders lack resupply outlets and room for tactical breakout. In short, the fall of Mariupol may be just days away. That in turn will free up Russian forces to complete the envelopment of the Donbas front.
And, of course, Putin has the power — unlike Saddam or Qaddafi — to threaten to use nuclear weapons, though I don’t believe he needs to do more than make threats, given that the conventional war is likely to turn in his favor.
I fail to see in current Western strategizing any real recognition of how badly this war could go for Ukraine in the coming weeks. The incentive for Putin is obviously to create for himself a stronger bargaining position than he currently has before entering into serious negotiations. The Ukrainians have shown their cards. They are ready to drop the idea of NATO membership; to accept neutrality; to seek security guarantees from third parties; to accept limits on their own military capability.

I remain skeptical that the sanctions as presently constituted can either halt the Russian war machine or topple Putin. Why has the ruble not fallen further and even rallied against the euro last week?
(...)is the Biden administration’s intense fear that Putin may escalate to nuclear war if U.S. support for Ukraine goes too far.
That wasn’t a concern in 1950. Although the Soviets conducted their first atomic test on August 29, 1949, less than a year before the outbreak of the Korean War, they were in no way ready to retaliate if (as General Douglas MacArthur recommended) the U.S. had used atomic bombs to win the Korean War.
History talks in the corridors of power. But it speaks in different voices, according to where the corridors are located. In my view — and I really would love to be wrong about this — the Biden administration is making a colossal mistake in thinking that it can protract the war in Ukraine, bleed Russia dry, topple Putin and signal to China to keep its hands off Taiwan.

Zelensky, the story. CNN Portugal,Zelensky: A História - CNN Portugal
I watched the sixty minutes documentary last night. Minute 5, interview, “Tell me, Mr. Zelensky, why don't you tell your jokes in Ukrainian?” “Why? My brain reacts faster in Russian” (sic).
I would pay a million dollars to hear an American president say the same thing (ok, j/k).
------
Zelensky thinks he is Churchill,in his acting dreams, but the truth is that if the UK had been invaded, it would have surrendered as France did to Nazi Germany. I don't criticize him for being patriotic, but only a fanatic can want to fight to the last man. But it is not his fault alone, as can be seen from what was written before.

[Muizer]

@Ludicus I really hope you do not mean to suggest that Zelenski has a moral obligation to concede defeat or that the US and other countries aiding Ukraine have a moral obligation to bring this about by withdrawing support in order to give Putin enough to stabilize his regime. There certainly are no such obligations. Putin is the aggressor here. Morally speaking, for Ukraine anything less than full sovereignty over its entire territory, war reparations and security guarantees will be a concession. Observing that endangering Putin's regime is risky because he has nukes is not a one sided moral consideration. It's two sided, with the moral deficit always being with the one who threatens to use them. So please either take a moral approach or a real-political one but stop mixing them up.

[Cyclops]

Orhan saying he is a lawyer is a pimp admitting he's a prostitute too, in my view. No shame in being an actor, its poor preparation for office but its not a profession (and career) stained with dishonour like Orhan's is.

More broadly yes, the US is using Ukraine to bleed Russia, but they didn't make Putin throw his forces onto the stake. The fact Russia's few allies seem to be hanging back in this fight indicates how badly it has gone and how unjustified it is (remember the US taking only four allies into Iraq? Its happening again).

The Soviets tricked the US into battling red China in Korea, but the fault is with the US and China for making the peninsula a stomping ground. Ukraine looks like the most recent Korea, maybe it will be split? An horrendous fate, but we can hardly blame a Ukrainian leader for defending Ukraine against a foreign state invading. The lies and propaganda spew from all directions but that fundamental fact remains, Russia crossed the line.

Best we can hope for is a swift Russian collapse. That's the best case for Ukraine and for Russia. More likely is Korea 2, armed de facto partition with nutcases in charge of proxy regimes. In the highly unlikely case of a Russian victory the West will just put the knife in somewhere else: Putin seems unable to take the win here.

[Bande Nere]

@ludicus somehow I doubt you would say the same if Spain reverted to Franquismo and decided to Make Hiberia Great Again by taking Portugal while destroying 80% of Oporto.

I suspect you would be asking for all kind of help from the international community.

And would not be particularly interested in living under their rule.

[bitterhowl]

https://t.me/ConflictChronicles/641

Russian tank withstood a direct hit from a grenade launcher in Mariupol

Russian tank T-72B (1989) withstood a direct hit from a grenade launcher of the Ukrainian army in Mariupol.

And where was is shoot from btw?

Briefing by Russian Defence Ministry

The Russian Armed Forces continue the special military operation in Ukraine.

Kalibr high-precision sea-based cruise missiles destroyed large ammunition depots near Ushomir and Veselovka, Zhytomir Region, from which a group of Ukrainian troops in Kiev's suburbs had been supplied.

On March 28, Russian aviation and air defence means shot down 3 more Ukrainian Air Force aircraft in the air: 2 Su-24s west of Korosten, Zhytomir Region and 1 Su-25 over Druzhkovka, Donetsk Region.

Ukrainian Mi-8 helicopter, which was heading for the emergency evacuation of the Azov national battalion commanders who had abandoned their subordinates, has been shot down near Mariupol, 5 kilometres from the coastline over the Sea of Azov.

In addition, 1 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicle was shot down near Chernobaevka.

Operational-tactical and army aviation hit 41 military assets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Among them: 2 multiple launch rocket system, 1 electronic warfare station, 2 field ammunition depots and 24 areas of Ukrainian military equipment concentration.

IN TOTAL, 123 aircfaft and 74 helicopters, 309 unmanned aerial vehicles, 1,721 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 172 multiple launch rocket systems, 721 field artillery and mortars, as well as 1,568 units of special military vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were destroyed during the operation.

Also some news about Ukrainian sea mines near Romanian coastline. And WSJ (saint truth edition) about Hunter Biden's deals investigation comission.

And by the way, it's proven by Ukrainians that Putin is a necromancer who raise the dead (I posted screenshot comparing Ukrainian data about Russian casualties), some dead commanders are resurrected too. But somehow satanic attributes was appeared in Ukrainian positions in Merrypool. They wanna share experience?

[Seether]

Haven’t you noticed that nobody responds to your Kremlin propaganda?

[bitterhowl]

Haven’t you noticed that nobody responds to your Kremlin propaganda?

Response detected.

Some more propaganda.
Putin

Make rouble great again

Biden

God bless Iranians in Metropol. Glory to Uhan'!