Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Bande Nere]

Correct. And the missiles were still a greater distance from what it is now, with even slower missiles and by far easier to detect, at the time. And still the US wouldn't have it.

NATO has already been bordering with Russia for a while now, yet there are no US nuclear installations in any post Soviet NATO Countries. Based on this, the assumption that NATO would simply drop this very smart policy and start filling Ukraine with nukes is preposterous.
Furthermore, as you yourself correctly mentioned, these weapons are next gen compared to to the early 60ies. But this actually means they don't really need to be planted on Russia's doorstep to do their thing, which is the opposite of your argument.
And again, even before Russia invaded it was quite obvious Ukraine would never get a clear path to NATO membership, so this whole issue is mooth from the start.

No, it doesn't. Nor do mafia guys force a shop owner to pay them protection money. But if they don't get their money, bad things may happen to them. Similarly, countries like Serbia, which showed no interest in joining NATO got bombed.

France once left NATO and I don't remember NATO tanks occupying Paris.
I know a thing or two about the Mafia. My island invented it after all. I can assure you shop owners don't get in queues to get protection, like 2/3 of Eastern Europe did a second after the Wall fell.
Of course, Serbia was bombed for not wanting to join NATO, not because they were mass murdering folks in Kosovo. I don't recall any NATO tanks in Belgrade either, come to think about it.

Now, I doubt that NATO wanted Eastern European countries because of their martial skills. The real reason was the real estate they represented, which would enable the US to gradually inch towards Russia, and gain a strategic advantage.

Dude, let's be realistic here. The US haven't really cared that much about Russia since 1991(and that was a mistake). Most western NATO was even reluctant to this Eastern shift as no one really wants to start a nuclear conflict over Latvia. Eastern Europe was the one scared of their big brother Russia, not the US.
And by the way, do you truly believe the US needed Estonia to "gain a strategic advantage over Russia"? Really? In what parallel universe?

Sweden and Finland never joined NATO and they're just fine. They probably won't be joining, either.

This NATO mafia of yours doesn't really seem up to the task. Besides the fact that those 2 countries are now very much pro NATO since the invasion started(I wonder why), this last comment of yours does seem to disprove your earlier comment about "bad things happening for not joining NATO."

[Laser101]

Pretty sure they're not fine and will be joining, due to recent incasions in the region.

Unfortunately, it appears that the situation with NATO expansion in Eastern Europe has generated a kind of paranoia feedback loop; the addition of more NATO members closer to Russia caused increased paranoia in the Russian government, leading to an increasingly belligerent posture, resulting in neighboring countries seeking protection from NATO, rinse and repeat. The present situation with Ukraine is basically because this process has been pushed to the breaking point.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Why nukes are irrelevant and therefore it’s that much more important to stop Russia in Ukraine, one way or another.

https://youtube.com/watch?v=LGQEKWceSTI

[conon394]

I guess it depends on where one lives. Yes, I assume that an obsolete organisation such as NATO mught work for countries that feel Russia to be a threat. But it's difficult to be bound in an alliance with your number one enemy.
Where does NATO stand in disputes among its members? Oh, yeah, "We don't care about international law, work it out, boys".

What Missiles again?

[bitterhowl]

You don't need to write such a sheets of text about Russian soldiers war crimes. Giving a link will be enough. (Link to Mr Budanov's case is old news so give a try to find another. Links to Wagner's groop is not going too because they're not in Russian army even if they exist)
I'll give you an example
https://www.npr.org/2021/04/25/98954...alian-military

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/01/11/...-abuse-problem

Some news from Mariupol - airport territory is under Russian control. Prepare to Russian propaganda about mass graves investigated.

Any news from Mr Johnson's voyage to the East, any oil negotiations? We have censorship here about UK successes you know.

Funny that Chinese diplomats sharing same pictures as bitterhowl.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Next time I'm gonna tell you something interesting about Russian media.

[EmperorBatman999]

You don't need to write such a sheets of text about Russian soldiers war crimes. Giving a link will be enough. (Link to Mr Budanov's case is old news so give a try to find another. Links to Wagner's groop is not going too because they're not in Russian army even if they exist)
I'll give you an example
https://www.npr.org/2021/04/25/98954...alian-military

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/01/11/...-abuse-problem

Some news from Mariupol - airport territory is under Russian control. Prepare to Russian propaganda about mass graves investigated.

Any news from Mr Johnson's voyage to the East, any oil negotiations? We have censorship here about UK successes you know.

Funny that Chinese diplomats sharing same pictures as bitterhowl.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Next time I'm gonna tell you something interesting about Russian media.

All countries in purple voted in the United Nations to condemn Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

[Lord Thesaurian]

https://youtube.com/watch?v=qLSoShDFz2I

Specific allegations of deliberate and even genocidal targeting of civilians by Russian forces. Allegedly part of a strategy to avoid Ukrainian hard power while forcing the Ukrainian government to surrender.

[bitterhowl]

Yeah, this picture of UN voting already appeared here. I suppose Chinese officials know about results. Also - try to count people in countries painted grey on this picture. In substantional terms of realpolitiks abstaining now means mutual support. If we'll conttinue speaking about China - US part saying Chinese media published declaration about Biden-Xi negotiations even before they're ended. This fact may mean nothing for internet trolls bit for other people it may be a signal. And seems that US officials recognised it pretty well.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...dlock-00018622

And as I promised you, I brought you interesting here about Russian media.

Since the beginning of special operation in Ukraine our main media continuosely provide statement that strategical nuclear strike and tactical nuclear strike are "two big differences" (as they speak in Odessa). That tactical nuclear strike is not so terrible and may be widely used in modern warfare. How do you think, what's the purpose of those internal propaganda? My suggestion is that after Ukraine will be done Mr Lavrov will repeat his demand to remove NATO to the borders of 1997. He'll get a reject again and then some tactical nukes will be used. I have no another idea why our main media are speaking about that for 3 weeks already.

Also looks interesting that main Russian media that was previously banned on YouTube are accessable again since yesterday. IDK maybe it's different accounts ofc and they'll be banned soon. Or maybe YouTube cannot do even this now. Oh, no, I forgot - it's freedom and democracy, pretty good for once at least it serving to Russia.

And here is another example with Ms Logan.
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/busin...lara-logan.cnn

Pretty easy way to say - a former great journalist became trolling addict just like narco. When she suddenly speaks something different you used to hear from media. At least she's not in prison as in Putin's Mordor, God Bless America.
Upd to Ms Logan.

https://people.com/tv/former-cbs-rep...llion-lawsuit/

Definitely a narco way of life ofc, adrenaline junky. Correct me if I misunderstood - #metoo didn't include her before this article?

I respect this courageous woman. She has a position and a courage to say loud about her vision.

[Roma_Victrix]

All countries in purple voted in the United Nations to condemn Russia for the invasion of Ukraine.

One should know they screwed up and reevaluate their actions when (checks notes) **even the Taliban** in Afghanistan joins most of the world community in condemning your actions. Politics really do make for strange bedfellows at times. Not just that, but even nominal allies of Russia, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, have voiced grave concerns about Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while declining material aid for that effort. I guess North Korea and Syria are not big surprises in voting no, while Belarus obviously voted no now that Lukashenko is tied to the hip with Putin in the war effort.

Perhaps it's a long term concern, but at the moment Sweden and Finland can perhaps breathe easy about joining NATO right away. Doesn't seem like Putin is going to have enough resources to screw with anyone else outside Ukraine now that he's bogged down there for the long haul (if he doesn't withdraw anytime soon due to hubris). His bigger concern should be the immensely rich Russian oligarchs in his inner circle, circling around him like sharks now that he's messed with their money. That's undoubtedly why he shot that thinly veiled warning across the bow about traitors and bastards within the country who need cleansing, like a fly that should be spit out. I'm sure some of them are starting to feel the same way about him, with his catastrophic management of the economy and international relations.

[Coughdrop addict]

yet by your account they seem to be indestructible saints with a heart of gold. Every single one of them.

How can you truly believe this?

If he were to say otherwise he and his whole family would be headed for the gulags.

BH, I suggest you stock up on food while you can, and hide it well. Putin is already having trouble feeding his troops. Soon he will have no choice but to take food from his civilian population. Combined with the societal collapse in a few months, Russia is looking at famine.

[Laser101]

Perhaps it's a long term concern, but at the moment Sweden and Finland can perhaps breathe easy about joining NATO right away. Doesn't seem like Putin is going to have enough resources to screw with anyone else outside Ukraine now that he's bogged down there for the long haul (if he doesn't withdraw anytime soon due to hubris). His bigger concern should be the immensely rich Russian oligarchs in his inner circle, circling around him like sharks now that he's messed with their money. That's undoubtedly why he shot that thinly veiled warning across the bow about traitors and bastards within the country who need cleansing, like a fly that should be spit out. I'm sure some of them are starting to feel the same way about him, with his catastrophic management of the economy and international relations.

The current inner circle is dominated by friends from the KGB rather than the oligarchs of the Yeltsin years (although the former have also been using state funds to line their own pockets). My understanding is that Putin's recent comment was more saying that the latter group have "outlived their usefulness", so to speak.
Although, he's also recently been swiping at senior figures in the government and military. Just how many of them can he afford to alienate?

[reavertm]

Putin had his Ansluss moment, attempted Barbarossa. I'm just waiting for his Wolf's Lair or at the very least bunker suicide. It's going to happen sooner or later.

I recommend channel 1420 on YT. Guy asks people on the streets of Moscow questions. No bias in question, raw responses (but sometimes edited/muted, to protect them from regime persecution). Gives good perspective.
Seeing how people there are in general terrified enough not to speak their minds freely, is also very telling.

[PointOfViewGun]

We have to thank bitterhowl. He's doing a great service to all of us by making it so easy to show how the Russian propaganda works and how the Russian media is lying even about basic things about this conflict to the Russian public.

[reavertm]

We have to thank bitterhowl. He's doing a great service to all of us by making it so easy to show how the Russian propaganda works and how the Russian media is lying even about basic things about this conflict to the Russian public.

Propaganda works everywhere, I don't think we ever needed proof for that.
In Poland, Kaczyński and his affiliates (initially sympathisers) in public state media gave his party two wins in elections to the Sejm and two perms as president for person from his party.
Putin and Kaczyński are playing the same playbook: divide and conquer society with the use of full control over public state media media and banning (or attempting to take over) any other media. Both flirt with far-right.
Kaczyński is in addition openly anti-communist and famous for having former communist party members in his party (like Stanisław Piotrowicz who helped him take over juridical system and whom he installed in gratitude in Constitution governing body), like Putin surrounding himself with neo-nazis talking about denazification..

Lie repeated frequently enough becomes the truth.

[Laser101]

Putin had his Ansluss moment, attempted Barbarossa. I'm just waiting for his Wolf's Lair or at the very least bunker suicide. It's going to happen sooner or later.

I recommend channel 1420 on YT. Guy asks people on the streets of Moscow questions. No bias in question, raw responses (but sometimes edited/muted, to protect them from regime persecution). Gives good perspective.
Seeing how people there are in general terrified enough not to speak their minds freely, is also very telling.

It seems more like a lot of people simply don't care that much. This is why I suggested earlier that the general Russian attitude (especially among younger people) comes across as reminiscent of the Japanese phrase 'shikata ga nai' ('it can't be helped'); on the other hand, it doesn't seem like there's much in the way of enthusiasm either.

[reavertm]

It seems more like a lot of people simply don't care that much. This is why I suggested earlier that the general Russian attitude (especially among younger people) comes across as reminiscent of the Japanese phrase 'shikata ga nai' ('it can't be helped'); on the other hand, it doesn't seem like there's much in the way of enthusiasm either.

Then perhaps I'm reading "I'm not interested in politics" kind of answers differently. I'm reading many of them more like "I would rather not talk about it in front of camera as I don't want to go to jail".

One was funny, along the lines of: "I'm not afraid to speak my mind at all. I just don't go to protests or anything, I'm not suicidal".

[bitterhowl]

Some Telegram from US here
https://t.me/police_frequency/65130

Here’s a look at the survivors who just managed to escape Mariupol that you won’t see on CNN or NBC

They break down in tears describing how Azov nazis hold the city’s population hostage & “executed the convoys of civilians who tried to evacuate” to Russia

@police_frequency

And seems that Russia used hypersonic weapon today. Seems that at least in this Russian propaganda didn't lie. This weapons can be armed with nuke.

It's good you mentioned UN voting.

https://english.news.cn/20220319/6ee...c45e37a/c.html

UNITED NATIONS, March 18 (Xinhua) -- A Chinese envoy on Friday refuted U.S. attacks on China's human rights record and urged it to face up to its own human rights violations

[nhytgbvfeco2]

What, in your view, would be an acceptable justification for an invasion?

Ukraine commiting an act of war against Russia.

Are there, ever, such clauses in treaties?

Yes, and you should be well aware of one. The Cyprus treaty allows the signatory states to invade the island to restore the status quo if for whatever reason it is violated.

Countries sign treaties because they wish to protect their vital interests (the stronger participants) and avoid invasion (the weaker participants). It seems ridiculous and self destructive for the weaker one to violate them, but under the support of third parties, just such a thing may happen.

Let us not pretend that DNR and LNR abided by this treaty. On june 2015, mere months after the signing, the head of the DNR and a representative of the LNR stated their intent to join Russia. The separatists violated the ceasefire constantly and relentlessly.

Correct. And the missiles were still a greater distance from what it is now, with even slower missiles and by far easier to detect, at the time. And still the US wouldn't have it.

Where are the missiles, Ioannis? Where is it that you think US nuclear missiles are stationed? I'll give you a hint: not in a single former USSR republic. Why would the US station nukes in Ukraine, but not in Latvia and Estonia?

No, it doesn't. Nor do mafia guys force a shop owner to pay them protection money. But if they don't get their money, bad things may happen to them. Similarly, countries like Serbia, which showed no interest in joining NATO got bombed.

I don't think that that's why Serbia got bombed. Did Serbia join NATO as a result of the bombing? No, that doesn't seem to be the case either. Hmm.. I wonder what could have caused Serbia to be bombed.. I'm sure that little genocide that they were comitting had nothing to do with it.

Actually, the promise that was made was that NATO would not expand PAST East Germany (moving towards the East):



https://www.france24.com/en/russia/2...ng-to-the-east

The promise was made to the Soviet Union, at a time the Warsaw Pact still existed. The promise is not relevant when the party it was made to does not exist any longer. No promise not to expand east was never made to Russia, nor a written agreement ever signed.
You know what WAS a written agreement that was violated? The Budapest memorandum. By Russia.

Now, I doubt that NATO wanted Eastern European countries because of their martial skills. The real reason was the real estate they represented, which would enable the US to gradually inch towards Russia, and gain a strategic advantage.

Yeah, Estonia joined NATO because it just really wanted the US to get a one up on Russia. Not because it feared of being conquered by Russia yet again.

Sweden and Finland never joined NATO and they're just fine. They probably won't be joining, either.

They probably will, actually. Support for joining NATO in Finland increased from 21% to 62%.
Ukraine was also just fine, until it wasn't. It's a matter of time.

Some Telegram from US here
https://t.me/police_frequency/65130

Abkhazian news agency. Nice source, lmao. Might as well use Putin himself as a source.

[bitterhowl]

How do you think, guys, which NATO country in Europe will be the first aim for tactical nuke?

Abkhazian news agency. Nice source, lmao. Might as well use Putin himself as a source.

We've heard about New York in Ukraine now. Never heard about LA in Abkhazia therefore.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

How do you think, guys, which NATO country in Europe will be the first aim for tactical nuke?

You can bet that if a NATO country gets nuked so will the entirety of Russia. Metro 2033 will be reality, not fiction. The writer of that, btw, condemned the Russian invasion too.

We've heard about New York in Ukraine now. Never heard about LA in Abkhazia therefore.

The logo on the bottom right. ANNA is "Abkhazian Network News Agency". You could do the bare minimum of research before posting these you know.