Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Muizer]

2.5 million refugees isn't a fake, it's true. There's warfare in a country. How this fact itself proofs that Putin's aim is to bomb children? Any claims from Russian officials to do that? Killing children intentionally - is a part of demilitarisation or denazification?

It's obviously impossible to wage war with tanks and artillery in a densely populated urban environment without causing large scale destruction and civilian casualties. Whoever orders it can be held responsible for them as if they were intentional.

When one start speaking in a such manner (Putin targeted children) with saying that Western activities in the world is a signs of democracy with just collateral damage and it's legitimate it looks like a double standards for me.

I have no problem acknowledging that. Especially GW Bush' 'war on terror' has massively eroded the credibility of the West. Its so-called legitimacy also counts for little, given that at the time the US, as the only superpower left standing, was basically capable of strong-arming the entire world into legitimizing whatever insane idea they got into their heads. Take for instance the silly pretext of blaming Afghanistan for 'harboring Al Quaida'. As a casus belli, that certainly falls into the same category of idiocy as 'denazification'. They're all crap reasons.

In terms of internet - Ukraine trolled Russia for at least last 8 years (much earlier honestly to say, but from 2014 they forced such activities) and was warned for many times. Words from officials "москаляку на гиляку" "let's hang Russian one" is one of small examples. And it's told enough here about Donbass and NATO participate for Ukraine. For you to understand - it's like Canadian or Mexican officials from their capital would say "Let's hang those Americans!" It was last warning in December 2021. Ukraine officials thought they have guaranties from Western world and just continued trolling. Now they're banned.

More petty incidents. Doesn't justify the suffering and destruction of war.

[Nebaki]

Before citing or make use "Wikipedia" as a Source check maybe before the related section and related resource of it, otherwise don´t blame it on others when you are not taken serious.

[AqD]

Any proofs of that massive casualties except Mr Arestovich's claims?

I suppose that reality gonna knock your doors first )

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

All the more reasons that NATO should get involved directly, plus Georgia in NATO and favorable deal with Russian's former allies, dictatorship or not every countries bordering Russia should be our friends now and be armed accordingly (well except China, we'd deal with it later).

I can't believe we allow them there for 19 days already. They could have been stopped on day 1, with entire invasion force vaporized.

[z3n]

It's obviously impossible to wage war with tanks and artillery in a densely populated urban environment without causing large scale destruction and civilian casualties. Whoever orders it can be held responsible for them as if they were intentional.




I have no problem acknowledging that. Especially GW Bush' 'war on terror' has massively eroded the credibility of the West. Its so-called legitimacy also counts for little, given that at the time the US, as the only superpower left standing, was basically capable of strong-arming the entire world into legitimizing whatever insane idea they got into their heads. Take for instance the silly pretext of blaming Afghanistan for 'harboring Al Quaida'. As a casus belli, that certainly falls into the same category of idiocy as 'denazification'. They're all crap reasons.




More petty incidents. Doesn't justify the suffering and destruction of war.

How can you hold anybody responsible if China is financially and economically backing them? Even if Russia bombed the place killing more people than the forgotten bombings like Dresden? Who held USA responsible for Hiroshima or Nagasaki? It won't happen unless China stops supporting them, which is looking unlikely given China's demand that USA back off from Taiwan and Xi being determined to support Putin in the fight against the "heavy handed US".




@AQD

That would only be possible if Russia didn't have a massive advantage in tactical nukes, and a doctrine which allows them to use those tactical nukes.

Doesn't matter how many troops or tanks you have when they can be vaporized by tactical nukes and chokepoints established thru nuclear bomb fallout and radiation. A war with Russia would be a war with nukes. The positions of the cold war are reversed, contemporary Soviet forces had an overwhelming conventional advantage (like the West today) however USA had the advantage with nukes.

[Condottiere 40K]

1. It seems like that really senior Russian military commanders weren't told that the decision to invade had been confirmed until two weeks before the go date.

2. And battalion commanders maybe a day before.

3. And as we know, the conscripts were clueless until they got shot at.

4. It's quite possible that Biden detailing Russian moves spooked them, as to where the leak was.

5. In theory, recalling Soviet doctrine, there should be a ready reserve of armoured fighting vehicles that would be called forward to replace damaged vehicles.

6. That's why the Soviets had kept the older models, because in a war of attrition, he who has more of something, even substandard, will win, because the other side has nothing left.

7. Now, I remember something like you allocate supplies, especially fuel and water, and during manoeuvres, double usage.

8. In war, you multiply that by four.

9. Shouldn't be surprised if the quartermaster general is going to get shot.

A. Russia is an oil producer.

B. Where is the fuel?

C. Commercial heavy cargo trucks are a viable request from the Chinese.

D. And tankers.

E. Probably doesn't take too much practice to familiarize one with how they handle.

F. Probably would take two to three weeks to transport them by rail.

G. However, you do first have to gather the items, and unless they take them straight out of the factory's vehicle park, may take a while.

H. The meal packs would be located in military depots with easy access.

I. Air freight probably would take three to four days.

J. The Chinese would likely charge premium for that.

K. After this war is over, military historians will vivisect the corpse, trying to figure out exactly what the Russians did, and what they thought they were doing.

L. And if they are short of air defence missiles, what exactly is guarding their other borders?

M. Conceivably, they may be short of man portable anti aircraft guided weapon systems.

N. They may need something cheap, or anything available, to shoot down Ukrainian drones.

O. Someone described this as a nostalgic attempt to replicate Soviet way of war.

P. Which could be true, since Putin and most of his senior advisers were all educated before nineteen eighty five.

Q. Others, a bad attempt at shock and awe.

R. Without actually understanding how either operationally worked.

S. So far, whether in Syria or previously in Ukraine, it was controllable because it was mostly small unit actions, with more experienced troops and commanders making up shortcomings.

T. Despite supposed modernization, the Russian army appears to be as decrepit as it was during the Georgian invasion.

U. I think the term is getting high off your own supply.

V. Nineteen eighty five, I'm told is a significant year in Russia.

W. After which, education went to hell in a hand basket.

X. And the result is an under educated conscript force who have no ing idea what they are doing.

Y. And junior officers who see zero incentive to contradict their seniors.

[Muizer]

How can you hold anybody responsible if China is financially and economically backing them? Even if Russia bombed the place killing more people than the forgotten bombings like Dresden? Who held USA responsible for Hiroshima or Nagasaki? It won't happen unless China stops supporting them, which is looking unlikely given China's demand that USA back off from Taiwan and Xi being determined to support Putin in the fight against the "heavy handed US".

I'm no native English speaker but afaik "to hold responsible" means "to blame". Whether Putin will ever be brought to justice is a wholly different matter.

[z3n]

I'm no native English speaker but afaik "to hold responsible" means "to blame". Whether Putin will ever be brought to justice is a wholly different matter.

That's fair, I understand. Just for future reference though, in North American phrasing (pretty sure it's the same across all English) if you say "hold someone responsible" it's the equivalent to "hold someone accountable" or "hold someone liable", only it sounds better and more natural. Granted "accountable" is a little more specific than "responsible", but it's still considered a synonym of accountable.

[ggggtotalwarrior]

In can mean both the act of placing blame upon someone from a technical perspective as well as the act of actually punishing them for it, IMO

[z3n]

The dictionary definition of responsible is: "being the one who must meet an obligation or suffer the consequences for failing to do so".


And used in the context of being held accountable, the same thing is seen:

How does the adjective accountable contrast with its synonyms?

Some common synonyms of accountable are amenable, answerable, liable, and responsible. While all these words mean "subject to being held to account," accountable suggests imminence of retribution for unfulfilled trust or violated obligation.

When is answerable a more appropriate choice than accountable?

While in some cases nearly identical to accountable, answerable suggests a relation between one having a moral or legal obligation and a court or other authority charged with oversight of its observance.

an intelligence agency answerable to Congress

When would responsible be a good substitute for accountable?

The words responsible and accountable can be used in similar contexts, but responsible implies holding a specific office, duty, or trust.

the bureau responsible for revenue collection

[Lord Thesaurian]

Psh imagine using the Russophobic Merriam Webster Dictionary of 1828, and not the Oxford English Dictionary of 1850.

[Laser101]

Re: the idea that Putin could be sent to a tribunal, it's exceedingly unlikely. The only way it could happen is if he was ousted in a coup or revolt, both of which would probably prefer to kill him themselves anyway.

[bitterhowl]

More petty incidents. Doesn't justify the suffering and destruction of war.

Continuously making provocations for 8 years (including murdering of civilians and pro-russian journalists), claiming to kill Russians from officials, arming the state for Western money and common training with NATO and proposal to be included in NATO - what else do you want? Direct aggression? No, thanks, it's enough. Someone wants a nuclear war? NATO involving? Let it be so if so. By the way, no public actions against nuclear war seen in the world. So looks like everybody agreed for that.

As for UN reports - are these 600 civilian cases are proven deaths from Russian activities? Some spy-hunting in Kiev? Some prisoners released, including former Tornado battalion members (their leader 3 sentences for raping and murdering), some 20000 guns given at the first day and known gunshots between paramilitaries in areas where no Russian army presentation? Those casualties are counted as civil by UN or there is a separate list for them?

There are some videos in Telegram, about volunteers who returned back to Poland. Also there's an article about South Korean group in Lviv region who asking their officials to take them back home. I'm not sure they're not fake but if they're not - reality knocked my door, I realized the actual possibilities of Russian army and FSB, so where can I get my 2 billions of roubles? I'd like to take my beer before nukes start falling.

[Cyclops]

This talk about nukes reminds me of the Balkan wars of the 1990's. IIRC the Serb groups besieging Sarajevo mocked the peacekeepers saying "if you attack us daddy Russia will start WWIII" and nonsense like that. Filthy war with atrocities on all sides, and an horrific settlement at the end where a few scapegoats were chosen to be punished. In the wash up Serbia was punished again in Kosovo, and with more ethnic cleansing.

I have a feeling Russia is just Serbia Mk. II in this war, pushing and pushing, and relying on fear of China to get them over the line. They're not acting like a great power.

The UN (and mostly the US) has created a precedent for breaking countries in bits with Korea, Vietnam (failed), the post-soviet caucuses, Yugoslavia, Sudan etc etc. so its natural I guess for Russia to copy that with Ossetia and Ukraine. You have to have the firepower to back it up, and the way Russia's forces are going its looking like they don't.

What else will Russia lose if they can't beat Ukraine? I'd hate to see more large pieces come adrift, or another 1990's style collapse.

[Bande Nere]

If a spade is a spade, a Nazi is a Nazi.

Frankly, I was kind of concerned that Zelensky might take a page out of his muse Adolf Hitler's book and start invading his neighbors; it was only a matter of time before he attempted a land grab invasion of Russia. The atrocities that Ukraine was on the verge of committing would have known no bounds.

It's funny how you accuse "future" Zelensky of something Putin ended up doing.

Remind me how a Country of 40 millions(and with half the population being repressed and murdered, or so you seem to believe) can even think of invading a Country of 300 millions. Much more powerful armies have attempted that in the past, and it never went well. Unless you can show me proof of what you keep stating, it is as credible as the idea that Cuba might attack the US to acquire Florida.

The atrocities that Ukraine was on the verge of committing would have known no bounds

So again, Ukraine was just about to do unspeakable things, but thanks God Our Saviour Vladimir Vladimirovic came to save the day. Even though he's razing majority Russian cities like Kharkiv in the process.

Zelensky is such a russian hating nazi that his jewish, russian speaking parents must be truly horrified.

Such confidence in future crimes, and an absolute lack of evidence to back a single word.

[Bande Nere]

Continuously making provocations for 8 years (including murdering of civilians and pro-russian journalists), claiming to kill Russians from officials, arming the state for Western money and common training with NATO and proposal to be included in NATO - what else do you want? Direct aggression? No, thanks, it's enough. Someone wants a nuclear war? NATO involving? Let it be so if so. By the way, no public actions against nuclear war seen in the world. So looks like everybody agreed for that.

As for UN reports - are these 600 civilian cases are proven deaths from Russian activities? Some spy-hunting in Kiev? Some prisoners released, including former Tornado battalion members (their leader 3 sentences for raping and murdering), some 20000 guns given at the first day and known gunshots between paramilitaries in areas where no Russian army presentation? Those casualties are counted as civil by UN or there is a separate list for them?

There are some videos in Telegram, about volunteers who returned back to Poland. Also there's an article about South Korean group in Lviv region who asking their officials to take them back home. I'm not sure they're not fake but if they're not - reality knocked my door, I realized the actual possibilities of Russian army and FSB, so where can I get my 2 billions of roubles? I'd like to take my beer before nukes start falling.

Clearly it hasn't yet. But I want to be magnanimous so I'll up the anti. Five whole Euros. That might get you a new house or a slave "pet" tiger by the time this is over.

Thanks for reminding us of journalists though. All those who died in Russia at Putin's orders since he took power, as well as these last ones in Ukraine lately. Namely the ones shot by russian troops.

Killing Fox News Reporters, not even big bad BLM ever did that.

[Bande Nere]

All the more reasons that NATO should get involved directly, plus Georgia in NATO and favorable deal with Russian's former allies, dictatorship or not every countries bordering Russia should be our friends now and be armed accordingly (well except China, we'd deal with it later).

I can't believe we allow them there for 19 days already. They could have been stopped on day 1, with entire invasion force vaporized.

The problem with that, is there would have been no day 2 for anyone if NATO had done that.

Even if out of all russian nukes, only 5 hit their targets, it would still be a level of destruction no one has ever witnessed before.
And there's the other small issue of glassing the whole of Russia in response, which again doesn't qualify as a good thing. For anyone.

[Alastor]

An interesting article here: https://nationalinterest.org/feature...-russia-201191
And I agree, the worst for Europe is yet to come, those sanctions that our leaders so boisterously imposed on Russia will hurt us considerably too. We are effectively in uncharted territory.

Thinking through the consequences, the nature of economic relations between the West and Russia begins to resemble something like barter. We are still in the shadow world, but the logic of events points towards that outcome. In barter-land, as we might imagine it in its pure form, no money exchanges hands. It is no longer recognized as a medium of exchange because experience shows it to be not real. In this new environment, possession is 100 percent of the law, squatters’ rights. As Russia is pushed into fiscal and economic ruin, it will default on every financial obligation to external creditors. As its property is expropriated, it will expropriate and nationalize in turn.

The sudden and brutal divorce signified by the sanctions, including the abolition of contracts, will wrench and contort the world economy and hit Europe the worst—at first. As divorce does generally, it will make both parties poorer and will be cruel and unfair to the little people hurt most. The interdependence that allowed the West to execute such a devastating blow against Russia in the initial phases of this economic war leaves the West and the world acutely vulnerable to very serious retaliatory costs.

[bitterhowl]

Clearly it hasn't yet. But I want to be magnanimous so I'll up the anti. Five whole Euros. That might get you a new house or a slave "pet" tiger by the time this is over.

Thanks for reminding us of journalists though. All those who died in Russia at Putin's orders since he took power, as well as these last ones in Ukraine lately. Namely the ones shot by russian troops.

Killing Fox News Reporters, not even big bad BLM ever did that.

Fox News Reporters was in a country where open warfare going. What did they expected? There were claims in Telegram from Ukrainian commanders for Russian journalists heads, so it's a symmetry, everyone involved.

As for Mr Oles' Buzina and other journalists - there wasn't open warfare when they was murdered. By the way, if I'm speaking about some actions of Western/Ukrainian side after your examples of Russian actions it's whatsboutism. When you speak about Russian after Ukrainian - it's Saint Truth.

As for five whole 5 euros - you show same behaviour as Western Masters showing to their promises to Mr Zelensky, so I'm not surprised at all. I have to say I expect that. If we speak about being in contact with reality.

An interesting article here: https://nationalinterest.org/feature...-russia-201191
And I agree, the worst for Europe is yet to come, those sanctions that our leaders so boisterously imposed on Russia will hurt us considerably too. We are effectively in uncharted territory.

Just one quick question to "5 full euros" current owners - what about fertilizers in Europe after that sanctions?

(I'm not mentioned here about yesterday's request of European industrialists to European officials to explain sanctions policy).

I have to say that in my own life it will be at least 3-d default in my state since 1991 (not speaking about 2008 crisis and all those sanctions), and here I am, writing here on TWC. And what about you, are you ready for yourself?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-a...d_major_2_pos4

Saudi Arabia Considers Accepting Yuan Instead of Dollars for Chinese Oil Sales
Talks between Riyadh and Beijing have accelerated as the Saudi unhappiness grows with Washington

This looks interesting, how do you think?

[Vanoi]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-a...d_major_2_pos4

This looks interesting, how do you think?

Saudis are lashing out because Biden won't support their war in Yemen. The Saudis can go kick sand. And they can go cry to Russia next time they get hit with Houthi missiles. Let the Russians go protect them.

[bitterhowl]

Saudis are lashing out because Biden won't support their war in Yemen. The Saudis can go kick sand. And they can go cry to Russia next time they get hit with Houthi missiles. Let the Russians go protect them.

Ofc, everyone has a reasons to do something. But we speak not about reasons but about consequences. And what about consequences?