Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Cyclops]

The reason the asinine nuclear point keeps getting raised is mostly because the asinine Russian tyrant and his asinine mouthpieces keep hinting at it.

In this case I mentioned it because a respected poster mentioned the tank ban had seemingly crumbled. I assumed the reluctance of Western powers to send tanks was a response to some dire Putin threat.

[conon394]

If they get any Leopards, it won't be from Germany. They have nothing to send except Leopard 2s in active service. It's also illegal for Germany to stockpile tanks so they have nothing left in reserve to give them.

Spain, Poland, Finland, or any other current Leopard 2 operators would have to donate their tanks

I did not necessarily mean to imply Germany had great fleet of Leopards ready or on hand. Nor did I think Germany itself would in fact hand over tanks directly. I do think Germany is going to have to be involved in the logistics, refurbishment and repair of the Tanks. Spain for example seems to have aborted its earlier plan to hand of leopards partially because stored units were not exactly in top condition. Given the Poland has clearly decided to step away from the Leopard (and its deal to upgrade its existing ones w/Germany has more or less failed) it is the only country that probably quickly dump a brigades worth of tanks to Ukraine that are actually serving units(*). With the Russian troop presence in Kaliningrad gutted, if the can hurry more M1s of any type (on the condition they end up as SEP3/4) they might do that. I seen nothing about what state the Finn's stored Leopards are in.

* I have been surprised Poland has not dumped the rest T72s and PT91 to Ukraine.. But Poland is quite big on developing and preserving its own military industrial base and they do seem to like breaking down and re using the hulls of the T72s which they have the capacity to do in country. For example PZA Loara given the success of the Gepards in Ukraine one wonders if they might revive it and thus want their T72s. Which would only make the Leopard even more an orphan child one Germany won't agree to allow Poland to upgrade much and exercises export control over.

[Cyclops]

NATO better resist the urge to reskin whatever tanks get sent to look like Pzkw IVs, however epic the keks might be moustache man can't even be seen to be celebrated in the least way. Any psyop gain would be a fraction of the diplomatic losses.

Anyone got a working mecha? Maybe jam two together and make an ATAT. "We are almost within range of Crimea, tell lord Zelenskyy he may commence his landing".

I guess theres no point, a real modern tank is probably scarier than some LARP job.

[Kyriakos]

Nuclear weapons were used as threat to prevent previous war between Russia and western powers. Used by both sides, first the US, in the aftermath of WW2, then Russia, when its own conventional army numbered fewer pieces.
UK maintains a nuclear program so as to "retaliate" in case of attack - which is the official position. Uk, ie a side no serious military power cares about.
It's pretty alarming how nuclear weapons and the doomsday clock are supposedly no longer a thing. But I do agree it's more important to focus on the latest great war to end all wars

[conon394]

It's pretty alarming how nuclear weapons and the doomsday clock are supposedly no longer a thing

So you were this weirded out over nuclear in every cold war proxy fight? Geez the doomsday clock is such an overrated bit of hysteria glad its not a thing.

[reavertm]

Ludi, will you continue to be quoting Kissinger, given that he now (at Davos) thinks that the idea of neutral Ukraine doesn't make sense anymore and that it should be accepted to NATO?

[Peresvet]

Ludi, will you continue to be quoting Kissinger, given that he now (at Davos) thinks that the idea of neutral Ukraine doesn't make sense anymore and that it should be accepted to NATO?

Ukraine in its combat experience and fighting spirit has already become superior to the cowardly NATO, especially Germany, which is afraid even to send leopard tanks to Ukrainians, fearing a confrontation with Russia. It was the cowardice and weakness of NATO that allowed putin to start a war. Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks and artillery, which NATO should have sent long ago, but does not.

[Cyclops]

Nuclear weapons were used as threat to prevent previous war between Russia and western powers. Used by both sides, first the US, in the aftermath of WW2, then Russia, when its own conventional army numbered fewer pieces.
UK maintains a nuclear program so as to "retaliate" in case of attack - which is the official position. Uk, ie a side no serious military power cares about.
It's pretty alarming how nuclear weapons and the doomsday clock are supposedly no longer a thing. But I do agree it's more important to focus on the latest great war to end all wars

Careful mate, there's no war in Ba Sing Sae or in Ukraine. Best not to contradict Putin if you live in a house with windows...although if you live in Hellas then you have the Ukrainian forces between you and Vladimir and you're pretty safe actually.

Try to remember it's a special military operation against Satan and Nazis and homosexuals. God has clearly blessed it as its going so well: 100,000 Ukrainian military (lots more civilians but Putin thinks nothing of them) killed and wounded, whereas Russia lost...900,000 young Russian men fled the country probably forever, before we even count a single combat loss? And maybe 200,000 killed and wounded? JFC getting into Stalin levels of self-harm here, second worst Russian leader of all time is a lock.

As for the nuclear clock, Vladimir keeps gesturing at it but it refuses to even acknowledge him. TFW no nuclussy.

[Loyt]

Ukraine in its combat experience and fighting spirit has already become superior to the cowardly NATO, especially Germany, which is afraid even to send leopard tanks to Ukrainians, fearing a confrontation with Russia. It was the cowardice and weakness of NATO that allowed putin to start a war. Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks and artillery, which NATO should have sent long ago, but does not.

Spitting in the helping hand is such a constructive behavior. You ran away yourself, stop trowing stones. Big politics are a mudpit, things like "sending hundreds of tanks and artillery" are complicated and interconnected deals, not necessarily hampered by cowardice.

[conon394]

Ukraine in its combat experience and fighting spirit has already become superior to the cowardly NATO, especially Germany, which is afraid even to send leopard tanks to Ukrainians, fearing a confrontation with Russia. It was the cowardice and weakness of NATO that allowed putin to start a war. Ukraine needs hundreds of tanks and artillery, which NATO should have sent long ago, but does not.

I would agree with Loyt. It should be remembered that West Germany (Japan ) were very encouraged by their western allies to have a non militarized culture and to not leaders in any military alliance no matter the size of their economy. For West Germany/Germany the legacy of Ostpolitik is also there to be dealt with. Overall its not an easy ship of state to turn around. Also why the US complains now about NATO spending and capacity my guess if you see did a deep dive into the George Bush senior and Clinton admins you would see no such griping and no particular complaints about plummeting NATO budgets, stockpiles or procumbent chains. After all that just the US step is a the more often primary Western military supplier and in a era before the dot compost with the US running a surplus and the successful gulf war the US was not feeling all about the world. Overall Germanies cautions political culture in this is not the product of one administration or chancellor and its not going to change on a dime.

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@reavertm

Did He now? Evil perambulating corpse I can't figure out why anyone listens to him anyway.

[Kyriakos]

Careful mate, there's no war in Ba Sing Sae or in Ukraine. Best not to contradict Putin if you live in a house with windows...although if you live in Hellas then you have the Ukrainian forces between you and Vladimir and you're pretty safe actually.

Try to remember it's a special military operation against Satan and Nazis and homosexuals. God has clearly blessed it as its going so well: 100,000 Ukrainian military (lots more civilians but Putin thinks nothing of them) killed and wounded, whereas Russia lost...900,000 young Russian men fled the country probably forever, before we even count a single combat loss? And maybe 200,000 killed and wounded? JFC getting into Stalin levels of self-harm here, second worst Russian leader of all time is a lock.

As for the nuclear clock, Vladimir keeps gesturing at it but it refuses to even acknowledge him. TFW no nuclussy.

Ukraine isn't needed to defend anything here. Besides, this is US base central, if you haven't noticed

[conon394]

Ukraine isn't needed to defend anything here. Besides, this is US base central, if you haven't noticed

Not sure I's say that. Considering the rocky state of EU/NATO relations with Turkey on a number of fronts and Turkeys Putin curious moves... one has to admit NATO is a lot more secure for Russia blundering in Ukraine and the ripple effect of sending Sweden and Finland out semi neutrality.

[Ludicus]

Originally Posted by Mithradates
Leopard 2s From Poland. ..

Maybe, probably, but not yet...A pertinent question is, why doesn't Germany send its own made tanks?

In fact, as expected, Davos day 2: Germany's Scholz not drawn on Ukraine tank ...

Scholz ducks question on Leopard 2 Tanks, says must avoid Russia-Nato war.

In any case, German arms firm Rheinmetall says Leopard tanks can't be can’t be ready for Ukraine until 2024.

--
Ukrainian adviser Arestovich fired for saying the truth. On live TV he had admitted that the missile that hit a skyscraper in downtown Dnipro was the result of an action by the Ukrainian defense.
Ukrainian adviser quits after claims over Russian missile after claims over Russian missile that killed dozens

In comments to a YouTube channel, hours after the attack, Oleksiy Arestovych said the rocket had detonated after it had been downed by Ukrainian air defence forces.
“The rocket was shot down, it fell on the driveway, it exploded when it fell,” he told Feigin Live. Arestovych refused to apologise for two days, hen on Tuesday, Arestovych published a picture of his resignation letter on Facebook, stating that it was “an example of civilised behaviour” in light of his “fundamental mistake"

News from the US,

Marjorie Taylor Greene Accuses Jewish Space Lasers of Trying to Shoot Down Santa...

In her most incendiary claim, she asserted that the Rothschild banking family is masterminding the anti-Santa plot “because they don’t worship Santa the way regular people do.”

Marjorie Taylor Greene Accuses James Webb Telescope of Making Other Galaxies Available to Jewish Lasers...

It’s bad enough that the Rothschilds’ lasers are wreaking havoc on our own solar system,” the Georgia congresswoman told reporters. “Now, thanks to the so-called Webb telescope, no corner of the universe will be safe from the international banking family’s ravaging space-beams.”

Stephan Fowler on NPR's website says that Green's bet has brought her closer to the center of power Marjorie Taylor Greene is taking a new approach to Washington

It's possible that Greene's rise in power and prominence are the beginnings of a greater shift within the party, as some seek to merge the pro-Trump fervor with actual governing.

Of course, this does not mean that all Republicans are psychotic, nor is there any doubt that critics of Ukrainian support are gaining ground in the Republican Party. Gaetz, Boebert, and dozens of other Republicans demanding a cut in support for Ukraine as part of an effort to rein in the public debt will use their newfound power - evident in the President's election process - to force a choice that is impossible for the Democratic Party and hard to swallow for Republicans like McCarthy: either Congress cuts spending, including support for Ukraine, or it will not count on the votes of this group of Republicans for a further increase in the U.S. debt ceiling.
To make matters worse (?), polls are beginning to reflect a drop-in support for Ukraine, which may lead more members of Congress to throw away the consensus that withstood the first year of war.
According to a CBS poll taken in the first week of January,a narrow majority of Republicans wanted their representative in Congress to oppose aid.

[Kyriakos]

I was alluding to the various massive US bases in this country. There's also the lack of much animosity between Russia and Greece, historically (apart from the soviet era, where it was very real for many reasons).

[conon394]

In any case, German arms firm Rheinmetall says Leopard tanks can't be can’t be ready for Ukraine until 2024.

Says noting to how fast Poland or Finland could hand over tanks.


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Ukrainian adviser Arestovich fired for saying the truth. On live TV he had admitted that the missile that hit a skyscraper in downtown Dnipro was the result of an action by the Ukrainian defense.
Ukrainian adviser quits after claims over Russian missile after claims over Russian missile that killed dozens

So right Ludicus the Ukrainians should not even try shoot down Russian missiles so that what they were actually targeting gets hit instead. Wait maybe they should just give up because they are not even a real country and Putin is right. I don't like calling you Tankie but really this a new low. You will of course be righting letters to your government such that all the MIM-72 Air defense systems owned Portugal be stricken from the military immediately. Cleary! - defense is just too dangerous to attempt vs capitulation.

Of course, this does not mean that all Republicans are psychotic, nor is there any doubt that critics of Ukrainian support are gaining ground in the Republican Party. Gaetz, Boebert, and dozens of other Republicans demanding a cut in support for Ukraine as part of an effort to rein in the public debt will use their newfound power - evident in the President's election process - to force a choice that is impossible for the Democratic Party and hard to swallow for Republicans like McCarthy: either Congress cuts spending, including support for Ukraine, or it will not count on the votes of this group of Republicans for a further increase in the U.S. debt ceiling.

If the Republicans actually cared about debt there would have been no trump tax cut nor the Gr Bushy Jr one... Aid to Ukraine is such a trivial portion of the US budget it matters not at all in the debate the zealots on the R sides just want kill social security and Medicate and Medicare so they kill the New Deal and Great Society and their willing to risk a US default that would more or less the end of the current global economy to do because they are both well zealots and beyond stupid. Aid to Ukraine all other US foreign aid is just a rounding err in what the Pentagon loses in a year. But the Republican low information news watching base obviously has no ideal about that.

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@Kyriakos

In for a penny in for a pound - Greece is in NATO.

[Ludicus]

Ukraine in its combat experience and fighting spirit has already become superior to the cowardly NATO

.
Who are the “bravest or the most cowardly”, I am afraid we will never know, because NATO's armed forces have not yet directly entered the conflict. But if it were not for the help of NATO, of which Ukraine has been a de facto member for many years, Ukraine would have already lost the war. By the way, since you claim to be Russian, remember that Putin asks you to return to your country. In a Washington Post interview, a few months ago, Zelensky called on Western countries to shut their borders to all Russian nationals — regardless of their stance on their country’s invasion of Ukraine,
Some critics have argued that banning all Russians would unfairly impact those who have left their country because they disagree with President Vladimir Putin’s government and his decision to attack Ukraine.
Zelensky said such distinctions don’t matter: “Whichever kind of Russian … make them go to Russia.”

Well, Peresvest, he said: “whichever kind of Russian”. I’m afraid that Zelensky does not have a particularly high opinion of you- or of all Russians, whoever they are.
--

Says noting to how fast Poland or Finland could hand over tanks.

A step that would only be possible with German approval. On that day, there will be no reason for Germany not to send its own leopards.

[Vanoi]

.
A step that would only be possible with German approval. On that day, there will be no reason for Germany not to send its own leopards.

Not going to be very long. Scholz is facing pressure from Spain, Finland, Poland, and other European allies to give the green light to send tanks to Ukraine.

And of course the Green Party in Germany has also been pressuring Scholz to send tanks to Ukraine. Ignoring allies is one thing. Ignoring your coalition partner? Not a good idea if you want to remain in power.

[conon394]

A step that would only be possible with German approval. On that day, there will be no reason for Germany not to send its own leopards.

Not true the point here is Poland is clearly leaving the Leopards behind. It can hand over tanks that are otherwise in its working army to Ukraine. You do realize how few active tanks Germany has right? Germany likely actually has no tanks to send in a useful time frame. Poland does (and probably Finland). Again I suspect Poland can lean on Biden to toss more M1s of any type over as interim solutions to loosing it Leopards. More so because there is not any threat from Kaliningrad now nor likely for a while.

A step that would only be possible with German approval

The long Germany continues its foot dragging is all a day closer to people deciding those agreements have outlived their purpose. The UK has already provided the political cover Germany really has no ground to stand on .

[Vanoi]

Not true the point here is Poland is clearly leaving the Leopards behind. It can hand tanks that are otherwise in its working army to Ukraine. You do realize how few active tanks Germany has right? Germany likely actually has no tanks to send in a useful time frame. My guess is Poland and Finland probably do. Again I suspect Poland can lean on Biden to toss more M1s of any type over as interim solutions to loosing it Leopards



The long Germany continues its foot dragging is all a day closer to people deciding those agreements have outlived the purpose. The UK has already provided the political cover Germany really has no ground to stand on .

I've wondered if the US had any leftover stocks of M-60s they could gift Ukraine. They obviously aren't being used anymore. I also wonder if the US still possess older M1 Abrams that they could give away.

[PointOfViewGun]

Ukrainian adviser Arestovich fired for saying the truth. On live TV he had admitted that the missile that hit a skyscraper in downtown Dnipro was the result of an action by the Ukrainian defense.
Ukrainian adviser quits after claims over Russian missile after claims over Russian missile that killed dozens

Wow, what a pathetic argument to make in defense of Russia's raping of Ukraine. The advisor's use of a hearsay theory as a factual one is troubling and warrants his resignation but to use his words as a means to defend Russia's attacks is just awful. Clearly, for some, there is nothing Ukraine is not be guilty of.