Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Just to be clear, are you referring to the Azov Nazis?

Not every azov member is a nazi. Personally, as a Jew, I’m more concerned about the fascists sitting in the Kremlin, using their power to, amongst other things, perpetuate antisemitic blood libels.

[Ludicus]

The freudian slip

[z3n]

I guess yes if it'll get a straight answer, the soldiers who surrendered, however you want to call them. What are you enjoying about it?

You might claim Azov Nazis being safely evacuated is unjust (not sure how??) but we can agree to disagree about that I suppose.

[fkizz]

From Putin's narrative perspective, the entire war was based on the idea that Ukraine is fill of Nazis, and the Azov Regiment is specifically referenced because of it's grey nationalist origins and it's habit of taking on all sorts early on (including neo-Nazis). The war is one of "denazification".

So yeah. The propaganda value of grabbing a significant % of the regiment's strength is immense. I would hazard so much so as to actually give Putin domestic leverage that he didn't have previously. It is tangible evidence of actual "denazification" occurring. "Look mom, we're ridding Ukraine of Azov Nazis"

An interesting case of idealism vs pragmatism. Russia can lose skilled PoWs just so a head of state he captured "nazis".

Becomes even more intriguing when it's unknown the number of soldiers inside Azovstal. Not all of them surrendered. So judging the evacuated might boost the morale of those inside to make a last stand.

Pragmatism or Idealism, let's see which will be given priority.

[Mithradates]

Russia plans new military bases to counter Nato

Russia will create new military bases in the west of the country to counter the strengthening of Nato near its borders, Sergei Shoigu says.

And how will these new bases be filled with soldiers?

Russian forces are continuing to suffer shortages of reserve manpower, causing the Russian military command to consolidate depleted battalion tactical groups, clearly they need more men.
You dont even need to be younger than 40 to apply anymore.

Talking about it, there is a weird thing going on with the Russian military recruitment offices, lately they have the tendency to catch on fire, there are at least a dozen cases.
This one cought on camera is from Nizhnevartovsk, electrical fire? Maybe, who knows...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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And now a collage of "Superpower" ingenuity, totally not embarassing:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Ludicus]

Personally, as a Jew, I’m more concerned about the fascists sitting in the Kremlin, using their power to, amongst other things, perpetuate antisemitic blood libels.

Don't say. There are extremist forces in Russia, but last I checked, there’s no Western campaign to arm and whitewash extremist forces in Russia.What do I see now? the "rehabilitation" of the ultra nationalist groups in Ukraine. The truth is, the Azov battalion is really the heart of Banderaism. It recruits neo-Nazis from all over Europe to come fight for Ukraine. Neo-Nazis are exploiting Russia's war in Ukraine for their own purposes -The Washington Post.

Not since ISIS have we seen such a flurry of recruitment activity.The extremists who successfully make it to Ukraine could return home with new weapons and combat experience under their belts

According to the right, there are good dictatorships and bad dictatorships, it depends on which side they are.Salazar,Franco, Pinochet, and the Brazilian military regime were all on the good side, right? and let’s not exaggerate, Putin’s regime is a centralized autocracy, not a fascist state.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Is Russia Fascist? Experts Say 'No.'
A key difference between Putin's Russia and classical fascism is the lack of mass mobilization. Russia is not a Volksgemeinschaft, a racially unified and hierarchically organized body in which the interests of individuals would be strictly subordinate to those of the nation: Constantly Mobilized
Nürnberg Rally | Nazi Party rallies

Oddly enough,the Azovstal plant is already being compared to Masada, where Jewish fighters who rebelled against the Roman Empire barricaded themselves in, and in the end all of them were killed, How many Jews fought at Mariupol's Azovstal plant?Haaretz

An aide to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said there were about ‘40 Jewish heroes’ fighting in one of the Ukraine war's most epic battles, but others wonder if there was even one Jew at the site prior to Monday’s evacuation of the Mariupol plant.

“I doubt the number, if there are any, is that high,” said Michael Colborne, author of the recently published “From the Fires of War: Ukraine’s Azov Movement and the Global Far Right.”
It’s clear – and not surprising, frankly – that Ukraine seems to have embarked on a global public relations effort. I think it’s part of their broader approach,” Colborne said. “I mean, at the core it’s about something like ‘How can we be Nazis/the far right if we have Jewish members?"

For his part, Ukrainian Chief Rabbi Moshe Azman – who was cited as the source of Zvezda’s mercenary claims – said he didn’t know if any Jews were stationed at the steel plant and had “no idea” if the video released last week was legitimate.

Shimon Briman, an expert on Ukraine's Jewish community, said “Jews in Azovstal are like Schrödinger’s cat. It’s only words and also a video of somebody strange, but there’s no evidence there were any Jews there at all,” he said

Ukraine Is Now America's War, Too | The New Yorker

...in just over nine weeks, the conflict has rapidly evolved into a full proxy war with Russia, with global ramifications.
As Politico noted, the new aid is...more than half of the U.S. State Department’s annual budget. Over the next five months, U.S. aid to Ukraine will average more than two hundred million dollars a day. (...) public’s moral outrage “stops at the water’s edge when it comes to committing the U.S. military to the fight” Tim Malloy, a Quinnipiac University analyst, noted...The war could now play out in many disparate ways.

In fact,in the face of a nuclear Russia, the US is not almighty. How realistic is Putin's nuclear threat? it’s very real.In Japan,Truman viewed the atom bomb as "tragic and necessary", even there was no existential threat for the US. 3 Scenarios for How Putin Could Actually Use Nukes - Politico

There is little doubt that a nuclear demonstration is an option that has been considered in the Kremlin. This opens the question of what would be the best U.S. or NATO response.

According the news, the first government official to utter that the WW3 had actually begun was Ukrainian spokesman Podolyak: “Now there is a global conflict. World War III has already begun, no one sees it”

“No one”, he says. Well,the US would do better focusing its energies to enter and engage in serious negotiations; it won’t happen if no one pushes Biden to pursue peace, instead of his dangerous Afghanistan 2.0 strategy.

[conon394]

@Ludicus

"The freudian slip"

Funny. But it still not as I suspect you would like to believe it is not equivalent. In Iraq the US was not annexing parts of Iraq not had the intention of making Iraq the state US state of Mesopotamia. Also Ukraine Iraq was interfering with UN inspections it had otherwise agreed to so GBjr did have a tenuous and circuitous path to his action that related to the Gulf War UN decisions (also not Ukraine has not invaded neighboring countries twice under a dictator who was still in power). Still a US blunder but really not equivalent to Putin's invasion.

In fact,in the face of a nuclear Russia, the US is not almighty. How realistic is Putin's nuclear threat? it’s very real.In Japan,Truman viewed the atom bomb as "tragic and necessary", even there was no existential threat for the US

Last I checked the USSR did not nuke the US over Afghanistan, nor the US the USSR over Vietnam, nor anyone out of say the war in Angola. You really need to relax.

Well,the US would do better focusing its energies to enter and engage in serious negotiations; it won’t happen if no one pushes Biden to pursue peace, instead of his dangerous Afghanistan 2.0 strategy.

Err you keep saying negotiations like they are magic wand or green lantern ring... what would an invaded sovereign state negotiating at gun point look like - capitulation ? Ludicus - you never say? And would you agree to the same for your country?

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Don't say. There are extremist forces in Russia, but last I checked, there’s no Western campaign to arm and whitewash extremist forces in Russia.

I don't give a who they're being armed by. Extremists in Ukraine get 2% of the vote and are about 20% of some random battalion. Extremists in Russia sit in the Kremlin and are the decision makers. Azov has extremists, Russia is run by them. What's a bigger issue, a kindergardner being an extremist or the school principal being one?

What do I see now? the "rehabilitation" of the ultra nationalist groups in Ukraine. The truth is, the Azov battalion is really the heart of Banderaism. It recruits neo-Nazis from all over Europe to come fight for Ukraine. Neo-Nazis are exploiting Russia's war in Ukraine for their own purposes -The Washington Post.

Ultimately it's about the lesser of two evils. The allies armed the Communists to fight the Nazis. Now the Banderists are being armed to fight the Nazis. And don't get me wrong, in both examples both sides were evil. However unlike the communists, the banderists aren't in power.
And just as a reminder, the nazis put Bandera in a concentration camp.

According to the right, there are good dictatorships and bad dictatorships, it depends on which side they are.Salazar,Franco, Pinochet, and the Brazilian military regime were all on the good side, right? and let’s not exaggerate, Putin’s regime is a centralized autocracy, not a fascist state.

Provide a definition of Fascism that isn't a description of Putin's regime then.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Is Russia Fascist? Experts Say 'No.'
A key difference between Putin's Russia and classical fascism is the lack of mass mobilization. Russia is not a Volksgemeinschaft, a racially unified and hierarchically organized body in which the interests of individuals would be strictly subordinate to those of the nation: Constantly Mobilized
Nürnberg Rally | Nazi Party rallies

You're conflating Fascism with Nazism. Putin is no Hitler, he's Mussolini.
As for mass mobilization - the need has not yet arisen.

Oddly enough,the Azovstal plant is already being compared to Masada, where Jewish fighters who rebelled against the Roman Empire barricaded themselves in, and in the end all of them were killed

Correction: They were not killed, they committed suicide.

How many Jews fought at Mariupol's Azovstal plant?Haaretz

Yet funnily enough both Ukraine and Russia claim there were Jews there.

In fact,in the face of a nuclear Russia, the US is not almighty. How realistic is Putin's nuclear threat? it’s very real.In Japan,Truman viewed the atom bomb as "tragic and necessary", even there was no existential threat for the US. 3 Scenarios for How Putin Could Actually Use Nukes - Politico

Hirohito didn't have nukes to fire back at Truman.

According the news, the first government official to utter that the WW3 had actually begun was Ukrainian spokesman Podolyak: “Now there is a global conflict. World War III has already begun, no one sees it”

“No one”, he says. Well,the US would do better focusing its energies to enter and engage in serious negotiations; it won’t happen if no one pushes Biden to pursue peace, instead of his dangerous Afghanistan 2.0 strategy.

Negotiations? For what? Russia to invade again in another 8 years? Come on man, wake up, you sound like an aide to Neville Chamberlain. Russia under Putin goes to war every 6-8 years. Unless Russia loses this war then I can tell you now, as sure as the fact that the sun will rise tomorrow, Putin will start another war.

[conon394]

To add:

Well,the US would do better focusing its energies to enter and engage in serious negotiations; it won’t happen if no one pushes Biden to pursue peace

Err last I checked Russia invaded the sovereign nation of Ukraine not a member of any US alliance or a US territory what does Biden have to negotiate about. The People of Ukraine are not being sent to the front by the 82 airborne with guns at their backs they do seem to fighting for their country. You seem quite happy to hand it over to Russia Ludicus - why?

[Laser101]

You're conflating Fascism with Nazism. Putin is no Hitler, he's Mussolini.
As for mass mobilization - the need has not yet arisen.

I'm not so sure that's the only reason. It doesn't seem like the Russians can effectively perform a mass mobilization.

Hirohito didn't have nukes to fire back at Truman.

The Ukrainians don't either though.

Negotiations? For what? Russia to invade again in another 8 years? Come on man, wake up, you sound like an aide to Neville Chamberlain. Russia under Putin goes to war every 6-8 years. Unless Russia loses this war then I can tell you now, as sure as the fact that the sun will rise tomorrow, Putin will start another war.

Given the losses the Russians have sustained, I don't think Russia will be in any condition for a new conflict any time soon. The losses in manpower and materiel have been substantial enough that even if Putin can successfully consolidate control of the Donbass-Crimea corridor, he will not have the forces available for a renewed offensive for a long time.

[StarDreamer]

According the news, the first government official to utter that the WW3 had actually begun was Ukrainian spokesman Podolyak: “Now there is a global conflict. World War III has already begun, no one sees it”

“No one”, he says. Well,the US would do better focusing its energies to enter and engage in serious negotiations; it won’t happen if no one pushes Biden to pursue peace, instead of his dangerous Afghanistan 2.0 strategy.

To be able to negotiate, both sides have to be willing. Russia has yet to seriously want to negotiate. Using energy on something that is currently not possible is a waste of time.

[Coughdrop addict]

https://thehill.com/opinion/national...ussian-defeat/

From a Western Clausewitzian standpoint, there is no longer any political justification for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine other than to allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to save face. But from Putin and his supporters’ perspective on Clausewitz ,that is more than a sufficient justification for continuing this war.
Putin has long since morphed into a contemporary version of a Shakespearean villain who is in blood so steeped that to go back would be as tiresome as to go o’er. Indeed, Putin and his toadies are busily making reckless nuclear threats in the belief that such threats will frighten the West into stopping the war with Russian troops on Ukrainian soil. In other words, they are exploiting Nixon’s madman theory to terrify Westerners with nuclear threats.
Unfortunately, too many Western experts are arguing that we have to save Russia or Putin’s face lest the humiliation of defeat drive him to escalate. Alternatively, they argue that we must negotiate the future of European security with Russia.
To put it starkly, they are all too willing to sacrifice Ukrainian territory and sovereignty to relieve their anxiety about escalation. Moreover, they also seem to harbor the strange idea that Western and U.S. deterrents are inherently ineffectual and immoral, if not absent, even though they have no proof of these defects in that deterrent. In fact, Putin has no “off-ramp” save victory, which is increasingly unlikely unless fearful Western leaders coerce Ukraine into surrender. That outcome not only undermines Ukraine’s confidence in the West; it also validates Putin’s strategy that the West lacks the nerve to defend its interests and values in the face of his nuclear threats.

The author is entirely correct. There are only two real outcomes: Either the west continues to oppose Russia by supporting Ukraine, or we all give up and march straight into the gulags without a fight.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

It’s truly alarming that there are those in the west that think we should just appease Putin and let him have his slice of Europe. They’re calling for a new Ribbentrop-Molotov, only this time Russia is Ribbentrop.

[swabian]

It’s truly alarming that there are those in the west that think we should just appease Putin and let him have his slice of Europe. They’re calling for a new Ribbentrop-Molotov, only this time Russia is Ribbentrop.

What has to be done is to further support Ukraine in this war for her survival. It really is incredibly important to do this for Ukraine's sake, because they would be treated with utter cruelty under Russian tyranny.

https://thehill.com/opinion/national...ussian-defeat/



The author is entirely correct. There are only two real outcomes: Either the west continues to oppose Russia by supporting Ukraine, or we all give up and march straight into the gulags without a fight.

Oh come on, cut it out, it is dramatic enough. You would not end up in prison camps, the Ukrainians would. The Russians really are ruthless and heartless and utterly corrupt. This regime has to be brought down with grace and it is going to happen! Ukraine is a death trap for Putin.

[Laser101]

What has to be done is to further support Ukraine in this war for her survival. It really is incredibly important to do this for Ukraine's sake, because they would be treated with utter cruelty under Russian tyranny.

At this point, Ukraine's survival isn't really in question; Russia's offensive capabilities are narrowing continuously. The stakes at the moment are whether or not Ukraine can regain the Sea of Azov shoreline, but either way it will take some time for the Russians to regain the capacity for any major offensive actions (and NATO can replenish Ukraine substantially faster and with better equipment).

Oh come on, cut it out, it is dramatic enough. You would not end up in prison camps, the Ukrainians would. The Russians really are ruthless and heartless and utterly corrupt. This regime has to be brought down with grace and it is going to happen! Ukraine is a death trap for Putin.

I don't think that's actually true; Putin could easily hold onto power even if he lost outright. Kim Il-Sung did in Korea after all.
The key factor for Putin is keeping control of the security forces. I don't think he's losing that.

[swabian]

At this point, Ukraine's survival isn't really in question; Russia's offensive capabilities are narrowing continuously. The stakes at the moment are whether or not Ukraine can regain the Sea of Azov shoreline, but either way it will take some time for the Russians to regain the capacity for any major offensive actions (and NATO can replenish Ukraine substantially faster and with better equipment).



I don't think that's actually true; Putin could easily hold onto power even if he lost outright. Kim Il-Sung did in Korea after all.
The key factor for Putin is keeping control of the security forces. I don't think he's losing that.

Putin is in panic. He's sending everyone to the front lines, burning through his army's leadership. He is incompetent himself and pathetically taking over command over his personal guard (something akin to the SS i suppose), which hilariously defies his orders, because they fear the front line. They are not equipped or trained for actual warfare. They are there to bully and to kill everyone who opposes the supreme douche.

What the Russians have in store for Ukraine is actually awful. We Westerners don't have to fear anything from Russia (except for the nuclear situation). They don't realize how destroyed they already are. I have talked about this above. Ukraine on the other hand needs to really win this militarily. The West simply can't be indifferent.

[Cyclops]

Don't say. There are extremist forces in Russia, but last I checked, there’s no Western campaign to arm and whitewash extremist forces in Russia.....

..why would they? Your posts stray into absurdist humour, mate I hope its intentional.

There's no equivalence with Ukrainse wannbe Nazis, a vicious racist gang getting work from a desperate employer and the hideous array of scum Russia has summoned up including war criminals bathed in blood from some of the most atrocious wars since WWII, Chechnya and Syria. I believe the Chechens selected specifically for their horrific reputation.

Well,the US would do better focusing its energies to enter and engage in serious negotiations; it won’t happen if no one pushes Biden to pursue peace, instead of his dangerous Afghanistan 2.0 strategy.

This isn't Afghanistan, its a proxy war and a nuclear armed opponent is getting whupped. How is giving Putin more land better than getting his arse kicked? You make literally no sense here.

Pragmatically powers fight one another ruthlessly, that's what's happening. Morally? We can deal with Ukraine's hill of sins as and when Putin's Everest is simultaneously addressed.

[Cyclops]

You might claim Azov Nazis being safely evacuated is unjust (not sure how??) but we can agree to disagree about that I suppose.

I'm not saying anything about justice. What are you enjoying about the capture of Russia's enemies?

[Coughdrop addict]

Oh come on, cut it out, it is dramatic enough. You would not end up in prison camps, the Ukrainians would.

If the Putin apologists and appeasers got their way, Putin could bully the west into submission. That's why the war is about much more than Ukraine now, it's a test to see if the west has the will to resist him.

If we had just rolled over and told him "Yes Master, Ukraine belongs to you." and refused to send aid like the appeasers wish we had, Ukraine would have fallen by now. And then why would Putin stop there? Why not demand the return of all "traditional Russia territories" like Poland and East Germany? And once the appeasers had meekly turned that over to him, why not demand the rest of Europe?

And once Europe was his, why not see if the US will submit without a fight?

That's why it's a binary choice. We either support Ukraine fully, or heil our new Russian overlords.

[swabian]

If the Putin apologists and appeasers got their way, Putin could bully the west into submission. That's why the war is about much more than Ukraine now, it's a test to see if the west has the will to resist him.

If we had just rolled over and told him "Yes Master, Ukraine belongs to you." and refused to send aid like the appeasers wish we had, Ukraine would have fallen by now. And then why would Putin stop there? Why not demand the return of all "traditional Russia territories" like Poland and East Germany? And once the appeasers had meekly turned that over to him, why not demand the rest of Europe?

And once Europe was his, why not see if the US will submit without a fight?

That's why it's a binary choice. We either support Ukraine fully, or heil our new Russian overlords.

Your general idea about Putin was right (as was mine, btw): he is an untrustworthy, murderous individual who reminds of the worst serial killers.

But he simply does not command the conventional (as opposed to nuclear) power to protrude out of his mansions to be a true threat to any NATO country, even without US intervention.

The Russians simply don't have the capabilities to be militarily successful. The US provides the Ukrainians with excellent surveillance and the Ukrainian soldiers and voluntaries are drilled and instructed well enough to wreak havoc among Russian heavy armory. All Putin has is the red button which he will never push, because he is a coward who fears far too much for his life as the richest man on earth and perhaps he's worried a tad about his two daughters as well.

I understand that what you mean is his influence and what comes of your world as a US citizen, if enough lunatics listened to him. This is over. Whatever power Putin had is gone. This war could not have been more advantageous for the US. What happens in the USA otherwise is a different story. So there is that.