Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Infidel144]

Biden's handlers to not think they can trust the CCP...

[swabian]

People from Moldova would definitely disagree with you. Because Putin's appetite for his own Russian empire will grow, and Moldova is next in line. He'll use Transnistria as casus belli same way he used Donbas and Luhansk.

Sorry, if that sounded a bit cynical, that was not my intention. I just don't see how the those countries could withstand Russia, if they are targeted one after another. Of course i'm not a military expert, but it does look pretty sinister. The former world order is now changed forever.

[Sir Adrian]

People from Moldova would definitely disagree with you. Because Putin's appetite for his own Russian empire will grow, and Moldova is next in line. He'll use Transnistria as casus belli same way he used Donbas and Luhansk.

Almost every non-russian in Moldova is a Romanian citizen. If he starts in Moldova, it becomes a war with NATO mighty quickly.

[dogukan]

On the contrary I think NATO and West in general have never found a better motivation to unite.

I believe the Russians are having a lot more trouble than they expected. For the Russian plan to work, this needs to be as fast as possible, at the maneuver stage. But the Ukranians are not giving them "fixed" fights. This is likely the reason in the opening attack they drove around for hundreds of kilometers without any resistance.

Ukranians had to dodge the first salvo which would hurt their conventional capabilities. And we saw little destruction after thos ebalistics flew all over the place.

That being said, Russians probably also knew the Ukranians would use land to drag mobile Russian forces deep inside and hunt with those atgms.

Since both sides likely knows what the other will do, I think the trick comes down to this:

-Can Russia lower the morale of Ukraine to capitulate fast enough, making Ukranians think its not worth fighting and dying when everything is crumbling this fast.

-For Ukranians, it is about slowing the Russian onslought as much as possible while keeping command-coordination structures intact and nurturing a heroic culture of "resistance" so that more of the population joins dispersed Ukranian units (who likely have embedded NATO special forces to coordinate intelligence and use of advanced weaponry).

The fact that Russians are "unsure" of their potential success also shows because they have commited about 1/3rd of their force instaed of extreme overwhelming. There also seems to be a lot of literaly junk weaponry on the Russian side. One would expect RUssians to use their best to make a show of it, but they seem to be sending pretty low quality stuff except for those airbone VDVs.- Though to be fair, we might not be seeing the whole picture due to opsec and lack of video-photo content.

In the meantime, NATO is nurting it's alliance and public support. NATO is also bringing a LOT more troops and equipment and systems to the borders. Those power projection capabilities will be a sword of democles on top of the Russian invasion. Russians will always have the fear of a sudden strike by NATO that can cause huge destruction within a few hours or maybe even minutes - if a large amount of Russian forces are stuck all over the country - a country that is not Russia, so somewhat of a gray area -.

We should note that the only real deterrent of Russia here is neither it's military nor it's economy. It is the nukes. Minus the nukes and you have low morale junk army with bad leadership (except a few elite units). And one must consider the fact that it is NOT that easy to use nukes, especially over a conflict in Ukraine (not to mention how close the area is to Russia). It is not easy to nuke London over a conflict in Ukraine even for Russia neither. So sides might gamble over each other's will to escalate further. If NATO airforces blow the hell out of all those Russian armor in a few hours that are stuck in Ukraine, will Putin press the nuke? Unlikely, but a possibility unfortunately.

[swabian]

- It looks like Russia has almost achieved air superiority over Ukraine, as well as encirclement of Kyif. Ukraine has been supported by NATO countries with weapons and know-how during the last 8 years, could be that it takes a little longer. But without direct outside intervention, they won't stand a chance. This is a well prepared assault, the deceptive preceding policy Putin entertained tells everything.

- NATO should immediately take up negotiations with potential Russian targets (edit: i mean countries potentially targeted by Russia). If they let this chance slip, it's really Western failure what happens after Ukraine.

- US can't stay passive. 7000 soldiers are ridiculous.

[PointOfViewGun]

If multiple countries moved a handful of soldiers even with no proper equipment for the show of it to major Ukrainian cities we wouldn't be having this invasion. Make no mistake. Russia is invading Ukraine as a whole because the West gave it the opportunity to do it with its inaction.

[reavertm]

It's not like invading "peacekeeper" army from Russia is rolling into Kiev unopposed.
https://www.facebook.com/UkrainianLa...91374769761188 - armoured column destroyed on the road, with burned bodies of Russian soldiers. Video is pretty graphic and it has appropriate "spoiler" alert. The more images like this reach Russian mothers, the quicker it will end.
The only way it can end is in Moscow by stopping the madman, by the hands of Russians themselves.

[DaVinci]

It's not like invading "peacekeeper" army from Russia is rolling into Kiev unopposed.
https://www.facebook.com/UkrainianLa...91374769761188 - armoured column destroyed on the road, with burned bodies of Russian soldiers. Video is pretty graphic and it has appropriate "spoiler" alert. The more images like this reach Russian mothers, the quicker it will end.
The only way it can end is in Moscow by stopping the madman, by the hands of Russians themselves.

This.

[swabian]

The only way it can end is in Moscow by stopping the madman, by the hands of Russians themselves.

Yes, but that is the least likely wonder to happen.

Russian soldiers have been captured already, that is known. To be blunt: the more they torture those guys, the harder the Russian bulldozer will rage. There is those two sides to any war and it probably does not work in favor of Ukraine. Not in the short term and certainly not in the coming months.
The Russkis are definitely prepped for this and they will furthermore know how to exploit this.

[Love Mountain]

It's not like invading "peacekeeper" army from Russia is rolling into Kiev unopposed.
https://www.facebook.com/UkrainianLa...91374769761188 - armoured column destroyed on the road, with burned bodies of Russian soldiers. Video is pretty graphic and it has appropriate "spoiler" alert. The more images like this reach Russian mothers, the quicker it will end.
The only way it can end is in Moscow by stopping the madman, by the hands of Russians themselves.

It is incredibly foolish to draw any assumption from individual platoon-level actions. Russia has retaken Antonov airport, they're quickly advancing towards Kiev from both sides, and they seem to have sufficient stock of PGMs to continue bombardments of key targets as they see fit. Ukrainians showed significant resistance... in Tik Tok videos. I'm sure they're inflicting as much pain as they can and making urban environments tough for Russia to penetrate. However, it hasn't even been 48 hours and we are seeing fighting in Kiev.

Strategically, it is obvious that Russia seems poised to decisively win the conventional conflict. In my opinion, Russia did underestimate Ukraine's combat capabilities and did not use all of the forces and tools available to them. It's quite clear that they are deliberately avoiding civilian casualties, and they're carrying out this campaign with a priority on speed of the advance rather than being methodical about it.

[ioannis76]

Thank you, that's what we have been saying about Cyprus for ages.

On the subject, if Russia refrains from carpet bombing, the following days will be not as easy as the first day for Russia, i don't know why some claim that Russia did very well so far, but from what i see, whenever they face resistance, they stumble, it might look like they accomplished a lot according to the map, but most of the land they secured was not properly defended to begin with. If the leadership and Kiev stands solid, Ukrainians will shake off the shock and adopt, they have the manpower and they will be constantly supplied. That being said, i don't believe that Russia will refrain from that for very long if things don't go the intended way.

LOL, the "evidence" of Turkey in Cyprus was fake. Images had been taken from movies (the "bathtub" image, for example). Furthermore, Ukraine, as part of NATO would accept nuclear warheads aiming at Moscow itself. The two situations are just incomparable.
Even the turkish government doesn't seem to be making such comparisons, and stands with NATO.

As for the Ukraine, I think it's mostly flat terrain over there, so there is little in the way of guerilla warfare that can be done (with the exception of large urban centers, I guess).

[ioannis76]

Romania and the Baltics joined in 2004. There was no expansion east after that. To only countries to join after that were Albania and Ex-Yugoslav. Neither of them are anywhere near Russia.

Georgia started talks after Russia invaded them in 2008. Ukraine started talks after Russia invaded them in 2014. Neither would have joined if Russia had left them alone. It did not.

Russia had the excuse it was protecting Russian nationals.

[swabian]

US needs to mobilize. Sorry... Move your troops to the borders. Instill fear and diminish Putin's confidence.

[dogukan]

Guerilla warfare does not require mountains. Flat terrain with lots of forest cover can also work. Besides, we are assuming they will have lots of javelins. Those things can destroy a ton of armor once Ukranians go guerilla from 4-5 kms away.
Imagine a scenario where FSA damage to Syrian army is multiplied with better tech, coordination, unlimited supply and a lot more fighters.

Swabian keeps mentioning that it will only make Russians angry...and then what? They will conquer a hostile, large land. The more force they use, the more enemies they will create. That is why they are trying to be very "polite". But what is the point of making enemies out of 30 million people you want to absorb?
Russia is constituonally a "democracy". SAy they annexed these areas...then what? 5, or 10 years down the line they will have elections? Who will they vote? What if they change the weight of regime parties? What if they boost the pro-liberal-opposition Russian population?

What will Russia do? Colonize these lands with its already declining population and dying young segment of population?

What is the end game here? Whether Russians conquer this land or lose it to West completely....alternative demands are coming to Moscow from their own population. No amount of NATO can change that fact.

[irontaino]

For the first time in...ever, the NATO Response Force has been activated and are moving 40,000 troops east.

[dogukan]

That is great news. NATO has been building up a lot of force in the East.

This can prevent further commitment of RUssian forces and make it easier for Ukranian defenses to re-organize and hunt hopefully.

[swabian]

That is great news. NATO has been building up a lot of force in the East.

This can prevent further commitment of RUssian forces and make it easier for Ukranian defenses to re-organize and hunt hopefully.

Good. We need more, though. The US needs to signal that their carrier fleet is alarmed, etc. The more threat that is built up, the more Putin is disencouraged. This guy is utterly sure of himself. He and his generals and ministers have done the calculations and the result for them is, that it is worthwhile to attack and pull through, despite of the economical consequences. This confidence needs to be broken by quick decision making.

[Exarch]

Biden's handlers to not think they can trust the CCP...

The USG and its Elites were so obsessed with a racial holy war against China that they took their eye off Ukraine and now the Russians are going to castrate US power and assets.

Re Nazis and Azov, thankfully they were stupid enough to tattoo their insignia onto their bodies so Russians know who to bring to justice.

EDIT: Apparently US advisors in the Ukraine were ordering Ukrainians to position their military in heavy residential areas in hopes of getting civilian casualties for the propaganda war.
I sincerely hope these CIA asset are captured, preferably alive.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

While I appreciate the Russian army's attempt to kill nazis, but if they want to do that they should march into the Kremlin, not Ukraine.

[Exarch]

NATO itself was staffed by Nazis and the Anglo british empire and Americans inspired the Nazis.

What i do find amusing is that the Anglo led NATO is obviously afraid of fighting, so what is the point of europeans staying with NATO?