View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #8141
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    An invasion of the Crimea would be a military activity... this is some mental gymnastics you are engaging in here. Worse, it's wasted on a non-issue.
    Russia invades- new status quo dropped, deal with it.
    Ukraine fires back - eScALaTiOn!.

    Garbage argument, we speak the same language you just used it weakly here.

    Bit weird to mention mental gymnastics and non issues, Crimea is an occupied territory, it can't be taken off the table verbally because the Russians lost their post 1990 tank inventory. That's unrealistic.

    Russiaa escalations expose more inventory to destruction. It may cost them stolen land. Putin's ubrealistic thinking got them here.

  2. #8142
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    @Cyclops
    Sorry, but your strawman is what's garbage. When exactly did I say that Russia invading was not an escalation? Nowhere.

  3. #8143
    reavertm's Avatar Biarchus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    When did I make a moral argument?
    I was referring to discussion in this thread in general, not necessarily you personally bringing "oh Zelensky should sue for peace because poor Ukrainian are dying" moral arguments.

  4. #8144
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    @Cyclops
    Sorry, but your strawman is what's garbage. When exactly did I say that Russia invading was not an escalation? Nowhere.
    Didn't you argue that Russian Crimea is a settled fact and we have to move on? A strawman would be an improvement.

    Fighting back is not escalation, and Russian attempts to escalate have alternated between embarrassing failure and horrifying war crimes.

  5. #8145
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    Didn't you argue that Russian Crimea is a settled fact and we have to move on? A strawman would be an improvement.

    Fighting back is not escalation, and Russian attempts to escalate have alternated between embarrassing failure and horrifying war crimes.
    Mein Gott, you and Conon have chosen one hell of an idiotic hill to die on.

    I will try once more to communicate with you here, let's hope it's successful this time. What is an escalation? It's an increase in the intensity of sth. Russia invaded the Crimea, that was an escalation, the intensity of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict was raised. That level of intensity was not maintained, a de-escalation followed along with (fake as it turned out) attempts to negotiate. Following this de-escalation a new status quo was formed. The Crimea has been a part of Russia for a decade now. Uncontested militarily. That is the current situation. Should Ukraine invade the Crimea again, that will be a new escalation. This is not inconsistent with my earlier argument in the least, as I mentioned conflicts go through phases of increased and decreased intensity. Yet again, I fail to see what is so hard to get.

    And no btw, I did not say we should move on, I did not really offer an opinion on the subject, not at that point, at that point all I did was to observe the obvious that it would escalate the conflict. This simple statement is what's being debated for like 2 pages now.
    Last edited by Alastor; March 31, 2023 at 04:45 PM.

  6. #8146

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    I will try once more to communicate with you here, let's hope it's successful this time. What is an escalation? It's an increase in the intensity of sth. Russia invaded the Crimea, that was an escalation, the intensity of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict was raised. That level of intensity was not maintained, a de-escalation followed along with (fake as it turned out) attempts to negotiate. Following this de-escalation a new status quo was formed. The Crimea has been a part of Russia for a decade now. Uncontested militarily. That is the current situation. Should Ukraine invade the Crimea again, that will be a new escalation. This is not inconsistent with my earlier argument in the least, as I mentioned conflicts go through phases of increased and decreased intensity. Yet again, I fail to see what is so hard to get.
    Ukraine launching an offensive into Crimea is not in itself an escalation. The problem is it may greatly increase the likelihood of Russia escalating, which is something NATO would rather avoid since it's a dangerous situation. That's one of the reasons why Ukraine's backers have been a bit cagey about Crimea (the other being the demographic situation).

  7. #8147
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    Ukraine launching an offensive into Crimea is not in itself an escalation. The problem is it may greatly increase the likelihood of Russia escalating, which is something NATO would rather avoid since it's a dangerous situation. That's one of the reasons why Ukraine's backers have been a bit cagey about Crimea (the other being the demographic situation).
    No, it would in itself be an escalation. It would bring war to the Crimea that so far has been largely spared of serious conflict. It would also directly invite a stronger response from Russia, that's a fact I discussed a few posts ago.

    This inability to accept that Ukraine can escalate seems to stem from an aversion to the word, as if an escalation is inherently a bad or good thing, but again I'm not saying it is either, it is besides the point I'm making.
    Last edited by Alastor; March 31, 2023 at 06:18 PM.

  8. #8148
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    No, it would in itself be an escalation. It would bring war to the Crimea that so far has been largely spared of serious conflict. It would also directly invite a stronger response from Russia, that's a fact I discussed a few posts ago.

    This inability to accept that Ukraine can escalate seems to stem from an aversion to the word, as if an escalation is inherently a bad or good thing, but again I'm not saying it is either, it is besides the point I'm making.
    What exactly is a stronger response from Russia? It's not like they're playing with kid gloves and and as soon as Ukraine hits russia they'll suddenly stop playing around.

  9. #8149
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ferdiad View Post
    What exactly is a stronger response from Russia? It's not like they're playing with kid gloves and and as soon as Ukraine hits russia they'll suddenly stop playing around.
    I mentioned a few options earlier ranging from a formal declaration of war, to full reserve mobilisation and moblising the economy for war, all the way to using nukes. Russia is hardly out of means to make things worse. It would be naive to think otherwise. As I said earlier, it may not be politically expedient currently for Russia to go down that path, but such an escalation may make it so. To put it simply, unless the Ukrainians are certain the Russians are collapsing and about to fold politically, invading the Crimea would be foolhardy.

  10. #8150
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    I mentioned a few options earlier ranging from a formal declaration of war, to full reserve mobilisation and moblising the economy for war, all the way to using nukes. Russia is hardly out of means to make things worse. It would be naive to think otherwise. As I said earlier, it may not be politically expedient currently for Russia to go down that path, but such an escalation may make it so. To put it simply, unless the Ukrainians are certain the Russians are collapsing and about to fold politically, invading the Crimea would be foolhardy.
    Formally declaring war is a nothing for russia, it's in their best interests to pretend this is something like their intervetion in georgia. As to mobilsing their reserves they've been doing that alrewady, unluckly for them they cannabilised the training units and sent them to the frontlines so they can hardly train the men they're calling up now.

  11. #8151
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I mentioned a few options earlier ranging from a formal declaration of war
    The announced annexations amount to the the same.

    to full reserve mobilisation
    What reserve - more mobniks is not a reserve and are they going to drive T-54s or T-34s?

    moblising the economy for war
    Good luck with that

    all the way to using nukes
    That I grant would be an escalation but big brother China said no to so fast on that so seems unlikely.

    To put it simply, unless the Ukrainians are certain the Russians are collapsing and about to fold politically, invading the Crimea would be foolhardy.
    If a viable attack is available I see no reason for your conclusion.
    Last edited by conon394; March 31, 2023 at 10:01 PM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  12. #8152
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Hopefully China can still be relied upon to contain Russia's use of nukes, when China forcibly annexes Taiwan.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  13. #8153
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    That is a fait accompli, it's done. It has nothing to do with what Putin has the right to do, all to do with acknowledging reality. Crimea has been controlled by Russia for a decade and it is considered vital, absolutely vital, to Russia's interests. Should Ukraine invade the Crimea, that would lead to an escalation of this conflict. Again, this is simply acknowledging facts, it has nothing to do with who is right, moralisations and whatnot. As I said, if you can't understand that then I can't help, we are not communicating. That's all on this topic. Let's move to sth more productive then.
    This is the post where, apparently speaking in behalf of others, you unilaterally declared discussion about Crimea is over, and a few other posts you state Ukraine attempting to expel the invaders would constitute an escalation.

    I've given several examples of how Ukraine has responded quite proportionately to Russian aggression, none of which you've addressed.

    Just repeating over an over "escalation escalation escalation" doesn't make it so.

    Maybe source a definition to help express yourself more clearly? Typically escalation means ascending or climbing. In war it might mean a qualitative intensification, such as Poland entering the conflict, or Russia invading Ukraine, or Russia using missiles on civilians, or Russia deporting populations.

    A proportionate response, fighting back, is not an escalation.

    Confusing Russias repeated escalations and Ukraines measured and reasonable responses is garbage argumentation. If Ukraine reinforces say Kyiv, or moves a tank brigade around, is this somehow an escalation? Because ZOMG the war is shifting to a new theater of operations its an escalation USE THE NUKES VLAD!

    No one is dying on any hills here. The word escalation is being used to carry a lot of water though and it's not getting the job done.

    BTW Russias escalations are falling pretty flat. We've had "playing with Chernobyl-glowing retreat" "wheat blockade-RIP Moskva" and "mobilise-wait where'd everybody go?"

    Maybe the Nordstream sabotage was an escalation, if it was done by the West. Really can't identify a Russian response there though. Did they do anything?

  14. #8154
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Well, declaring you "win" a debate on your own behalf while several more disagree with you seems to be the norm now. "I'm so intelligent no other person agrees with me!", says the stupid person.
    "Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former." -Albert Einstein
    https://www.politicalcompass.org/ana...2.38&soc=-3.44 <-- "Dangerous far right bigot!" -SJWs

  15. #8155
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Cyclops View Post
    This is the post where, apparently speaking in behalf of others, you unilaterally declared discussion about Crimea is over, and a few other posts you state Ukraine attempting to expel the invaders would constitute an escalation.

    I've given several examples of how Ukraine has responded quite proportionately to Russian aggression, none of which you've addressed.

    Just repeating over an over "escalation escalation escalation" doesn't make it so.

    Maybe source a definition to help express yourself more clearly? Typically escalation means ascending or climbing. In war it might mean a qualitative intensification, such as Poland entering the conflict, or Russia invading Ukraine, or Russia using missiles on civilians, or Russia deporting populations.

    A proportionate response, fighting back, is not an escalation.

    Confusing Russias repeated escalations and Ukraines measured and reasonable responses is garbage argumentation. If Ukraine reinforces say Kyiv, or moves a tank brigade around, is this somehow an escalation? Because ZOMG the war is shifting to a new theater of operations its an escalation USE THE NUKES VLAD!

    No one is dying on any hills here. The word escalation is being used to carry a lot of water though and it's not getting the job done.

    BTW Russias escalations are falling pretty flat. We've had "playing with Chernobyl-glowing retreat" "wheat blockade-RIP Moskva" and "mobilise-wait where'd everybody go?"

    Maybe the Nordstream sabotage was an escalation, if it was done by the West. Really can't identify a Russian response there though. Did they do anything?
    I would not use the term "escalation" for Ukraine ever trying to take back Crimea. However, it'd certainly cause a reaction from the russian public too (distinct from just Putin/Kremlin), exactly due to Crimea having a massive russian majority.
    I think Alastor was focusing on that, in regards to making (among other things) a "great patriotic war" type mobilization closer to possible than it is now.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
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  16. #8156
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    Hopefully China can still be relied upon to contain Russia's use of nukes, when China forcibly annexes Taiwan.
    Never going to happen even if the US has to loose a third or more of its SSNs
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  17. #8157
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Conon, the US isn't superman. It won't go against two other nuclear powers. "Doesn't afraid of anything" should stop at some point.
    I like the US, it is more than likely the best place to live in (good parts). But foreign policy-wise it is another imperialist country and has a military-industrial complex that would only stop short of getting US nuked.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  18. #8158
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I would not use the term "escalation" for Ukraine ever trying to take back Crimea.
    No me neither. In fact Ukraine's performance has been well orchestrated to sell it to the West including not escalating squat: Alastor's basic point that we are being sold a product is fair. Its just most people choose the US product over the Russian one, even when it costs what it is costing.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    However, it'd certainly cause a reaction from the russian public too (distinct from just Putin/Kremlin), exactly due to Crimea having a massive russian majority.
    Are we circling back to "Crimea is Russia" again? Because it isn't. Secondly annexation isn't American Idol, and Putin is very happy to pull extremely unpopular moves like starting a war dishonestly and announcing a mobilisation that goes so well it gets called off and they go with prisoners instead.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    I think Alastor was focusing on that, in regards to making (among other things) a "great patriotic war" type mobilization closer to possible than it is now.
    Except its been tried and somewhere not too far south of a million young men left the country. What's Putin going to do, announce another illegal mobilisation, except this time for realsies? Russian escalations seem to end badly for them.

    Also the Great Patriotic War Mobilisation was delivered in Willys trucks IIRC. China is many things but the Arsenal of Democracy it is not.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  19. #8159
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    @Cyclops
    Ok, I understand, Ukraine is good so it can't possibly be responsible for any kind of escalation, only "proportionate responses". Even though what is deemed "proportionate" depends on whose side you are on. Like I said, your aversion is to the word, because you are ascribing a moral dimension to it. I don't. Anything that raises the intensity of a conflict is an escalation, it is as simple as that. Either way I'm done with this idiotic discussion over the meaning of a word. I still can't believe sth that simple is that hard to get a consensus on, imagine actually getting an agreement on anything more substantial. I mean you keep bringing up examples of what I said as if they contradict me, when I've been making the same point over and over. You ask for a definition, while responding to the very post where I provided one. And so on. I made repeated good faith attempts to communicate with you. It's not working. So yeah, moving on.
    Last edited by Alastor; April 01, 2023 at 05:51 AM.

  20. #8160
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Personally, I think that Ukraine (assuming it ever is able to) trying to take back Crimea, will be escalation only for the russian public, but not in the context of the war; merely due to Crimea's demographics.
    On the other hand, if Ukraine gets long-ranged missiles, and hits far away from the front (eg near Moscow or other cities that have nothing to do with 2014 or now), that would obviously be escalation.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










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