Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Lifthrasir]

I've done some cleaning again. The thread is re-opened. However, I'd like to remind you a couple of rules here:
Attack the post and not the poster.
Debate in good faith.
That's not the 1st time we have to close this thread for cleaning and cooldown. Please respect the rules if you want to keep discussing on that topic.

[Cyclops]

@Condottiere 40K

Well logically Putin should not try some push now. Realistically his plan B needs to overwhelming and effective. He really should declare war/state of emergency and wait the two to three months he needs to get his conscripts and reserves ready and get all the equipment he needs into working order an properly staged. He could likely then simply overwhelm the Donbas at cost no matter even if the US and NATO start tossing more a more heavy weapons in during the delay.

That said I think he roll some kind piecemeal just funneling in what has on one front and end up with even if he ekes out a Donbas win will really be costly but I suppose the at the request of the independent republics he could use conscripts for an occupying army meat grinder.

I can't understand why he has not already declared war to bring his state resources to bear. I guess domestic political narratives are unclear as Russian media is more tightly controlled than ours, but judging from comments ITT, a declaration of war will cost him something domestically? Something worth more than the ability to mobilise more fully.

Maybe its just an arbitrary line he's put in to give credibility to nuclear threats, "if you make me put my pants on I will torch the ****ing planet so help me". The return on that threat is pretty diminished by present failures: I have to say drip fed aid to Ukraine has been perfectly timed, pretty much everyone bought the "over before Easter" meme, instead the VDV and the Black Sea Fleet have been punished hard. As for the underlying Russia Stronk bogey, well Putin is actually retreating in some areas, that's an horrendous look. Threatening nukes after you had your arse kicked is a whole different look to threatening nukes on top of rolling the enemy in six days. One is "I've already won, eat it" the other is murder suicide.

Yes, if he wasn't a politician. Being a politician the view becomes more power play intrigue based and less pragmatism based.

Indeed, although part of the politics is the messaging. Lying about invading then invading, well that looks "operational" and cool. Declaring new objectives after you failed to meet the apparent first set, that's a bit more cringe. Starting a police action and then fumbling into war, that looks, I dunno, a bit incompetent? Poorly judged?

Just on the overall messaging, the meme war is so one sided. The slack liberal self hatred of the west has taken the sting out of Russian jibes, Azov Nazis? We're allied to the Saudis so, yeah, we already feel shame. Biden is a corpse? Yep, that's literally day to day news. The cope cages, Monkey Putin, VDV video remixes, that's got to be corroding the souls of the poor Russian memers.

I can't see the Monkey Putin meme without regret, its such pointless nihilist bullying. I mean I laugh too, but its pretty horrible. I guess he's a torturing bloodthirsty bully himself, but it seems undignified to just dehumanise a whole Federation's leader.

[Ludicus]

According to the news -it was already mentioned here before- German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (neoliberal FDP) has confirmed that the government will boost military assistance spending in 2022 to €2 billion. "The funds will largely benefit Ukraine," Lindner tweeted.

Scholz is reluctant to deliver heavy offensive weaponry to Ukraine. German chancellor 'stalling on heavy weaponry to Ukraine'

...But Scholz is compelled to do what his coalition partners want, because if he doesn't the government would fall. Strains in German coalition as junior partners turn on Scholz over Ukraine

Junior liberal, Green partners want even stronger stances. "I have the impression that Mr Scholz is not aware of the serious damage he is doing to Germany's reputation in Central Europe, in Eastern Europe, basically in the whole of Europe," Anton Hofreiter, Greens chairman of parliament's Europe committee, told Reuters.

Nobody talks about negotiations anymore, have you noticed that?

The U.S. is committed to the economic destruction of Russia, even if to achieve this end Ukrainians may have to fight to the last Ukrainian. In the process, Europe will be economically devastated, and Europe, committing haraquiri, doesn't seem to care. It is almost unbelievable. Ukraine deserves humanitarian support? that's obvious, people die and suffer, it's not their fault what's going on. But that's not what I'm talking about.

What do we have now? financial sanctions on Russia that hurt Europe.The EU purchasing and sending weapons to a non-EU country at war; Europe's biggest refugee crisis since 1945. The chance of one or two nuclear tactical weapons being used in Europe increases with each passing day, and the United States, favored by its geography, is not likely to suffer, unless a nuclear world war escalates. From a geopolitical perspective, it is not needed to quote Mearsheimer. Just use common sense.
As Credit Suisse strategist Zoltan Pozsar has argued,

The US and NATO are totally belligerent. This presents a real danger to Russia. The idea that nuclear war is unthinkable is a myth. If you look at the firebombing of Tokyo against Hiroshima and Nagasaki, more people died in Tokyo than Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These cities were rebuilt. The radiation goes away and life can restart. The difference between firebombing and nuclear bombing is only efficiency. NATO provocations are so extreme, Russia had to place their nuclear missiles on standby alert. This is a gravely serious matter. But the US ignored it.

Someone here said that Mearsheimer is "especially insightful", “tell me things I want to hear” and if I remember correctly, is "a great patriot"- All this praise derives from the fact that Mearsheimer rightly said that China is the main competitor of the US.

I completely agree that Mearsheimer is especially insightful and a patriot, but some people only hear what they want to hear.It’s a case of selective listening. Mearsheimer is critical of the US expansionism, says the West is principally responsible for the Ukraine crisis, criticizes the American policy in the Middle East, - “Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya and Egypt. All have been disasters. The US has made a "giant mess" of the Middle East. In the words of Madeline Albright, that the United States is the 'indispensable nation'; the idea that we are superior to everybody else. So we have the right, the responsibility and the wisdom to dominate a region, like the Middle East, and do social engineering at the end of a rifle barrel”.

He also criticizes the US policy towards Israel -in this respect he wrote the most devastating article I have ever read in my life.

And when it comes to the war in Ukraine he does not blame solely the United States, he also blames the Ukrainian nationalist far right, the anti-democratic elites at the top of the state apparatus. He writes, “Zelensky has very little maneuver room because on his right are a large number of Ukrainians who don’t want him to make any concessions to the Russians and those far right elements coupled with America’s unwillingness to see Russia win in any way means that Ukraine itself is unlikely to be able to push for neutral country”.

Mearsheimer is not the patriotic hero of the American expansionist warmongers. In 2019, Mearsheimer said his preferred candidate on foreign policy in the 2020 Democratic presidential primary was Bernie Sanders: “Bernie is the only restrainer in the lot. The key question is whether he could stand up to the Blob, which would go to enormous lengths to undermine his efforts to pursue a less militaristic foreign policy”.
The Blob refers to the influential network of think tanks, advocates and intellectuals that has dominated foreign policy for decades. Read more about the Blob and the anti-Blob- The New Doves on Ukraine | The New Yorker

Mearsheimer also pointed out that the economic inequality in the US is the greatest problem faced by the nation,“hyperglobalization has done little to raise the real income levels of the lower and middle classes in the West. At the same time, it has greatly increased the wages and the wealth of the upper classes. The result is staggering economic inequality almost everywhere, which shows few signs of abating. Indeed, the problem appears likely to be getting worse”

Exactly what Sanders does, Sen. Bernie Sanders Discusses Impact of Hyperglobalization

And unsurprisingly for someone who is not right wing-far way from that- Mearsheimer includes in his bibliography at the end of an article written in 2019 the 2108 World Inequality Report, the most authoritative and comprehensive account of global trends in inequality, and also other articles such as,
Walter Scheidel, The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality from the Stone Age to the Twenty First Century
Edward N. Wolff, “Inequality and Rising Profitability in the United States, 1947–2012
Drew DeSilver, “For Most U.S. Workers, Real Wages Have Barely Budged in Decades” (Washington, D.C.: Pew Research Center, August 7, 2018)

This is the latest World Inequality Report World Inequality Report 2022 where it is stated that contemporary global inequalities are close to early 20th century levels, at the peak of Western imperialism. Piketty and colaborators.

There are so many reasons for this man to be hated by the bellicose, expansionist right.Never to be admired.

[Coughdrop addict]

I can't see the Monkey Putin meme without regret, its such pointless nihilist bullying. I mean I laugh too, but its pretty horrible. I guess he's a torturing bloodthirsty bully himself, but it seems undignified to just dehumanise a whole Federation's leader.

Don't feel bad.

This isn't like Obama being hated by the right solely for the color of his skin (Fox News once had a real-time feed of comments on their broadcasts, but had to take it down because their viewers kept posting racial slurs about Obama's family, and rape threats towards his daughters, who were 7 and 12 at the time). Putin isn't hated for some physical characteristic he had no control over.

And it's not like the hatred on the right for Biden, who is routinely accused by Russia's Republican lackeys of raping, murdering, and eating children after he stole the election from Strong Daddy. Putin is hated and reviled the world over for things he has actually done, not something a bunch of whiny sore losers made up.

But nothing expresses why you shouldn't feel bad about the Putin Monkey meme like the actual words of his simps. If it offends them, then I say that's a good reason to keep doing it:

Additionally, on February 27th, 2022, an anon posted a similar copypasta defending Putin against the meme:

It should be pretty evident, to anyone with a modicum of deductive skills that is, that there is a concerted effort by shills to delegitimize the figure of President Putin. Seriously, in the span of a few days, our board has been filled with freaking HUNDREDS of derogatory images where Putin is likened to a monkey. Like I get this is the price for not bending the knee to the NWO and its satanic subversion of traditional societies but still, this is going too far. Imagine a Head of State giving his best to save the white race just to have some pawns of libtardism pumping those ebin le monke memes at him. This is outrageous and these threads need to be banned. Whenever a new thread trying to make Putin look short or like a primate is created, cultural marxism dances in joy as they encroach on the Western values that Putin incarnates. And yeah, Putin might be slightly shorter than average height and like 180 cm at most but his moral stature is freaking HUGE so yeah, whenever you think you're being so cool and marvellous with your damn le monke memes, keep in mind that Rothschilds are smiling at your action! Seriously, guys, stop. You're hurting the white race.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

You guys remember pro-ruzzian's posting about how Ukranian nazis said they're there to defend the white race? Well, here's a Ruzzian voulunteer saying the same. Huh. I thought only the Ukranians had nazis..
Mind, the source is in Russian as it was an interview posted on RT, but the gist of it is a volunteer saying "I'm here to defend children with white skin on slavic land."

[Condottiere 40K]

1. Happy Easter, or whatever you prefer celebrating.

2. I suspect a big part of the problem is the seasonal climate.

3. One reason you may have had four widely spread out axis of approach is that the transport infrastructure couldn't handle that many vehicles.

4. Beside the one kick and rotten structure assumption.

5. And I think we all remember those pictures from the Great Patriotic War, with the German vehicles struggling through the mud.

6. And Putin ordering dress uniforms instead of cold weather clothing.

7. It's possible, even if Putin wanted to, the Russian army can't coordinate a large scale campaign.

8. Which is different from small unit actions in Crimea and Syria.

9. The Russians are massing their forces, but unlike Stalingrad, their foes have damn near perfect knowledge in real time.

A. So the Ukrainians know which likely routes they are taking, and what their immediate objectives are.

B. That's why they so desperately want heavy metal.

C. They're planning definitely to counter attack.

D. Or launch a surprise attack before the Russians are ready.

E. You might end up with a Yalu River dilemma.

F. How far do you pursue retreating Russian forces?

G. Assuming an overwhelming Ukrainian victory in the Donbass.

H. They can turn their armoured forces southward.

I. The land route would be retaken.

J. The Russian forces around Kherson might suddenly find themselves cut off.

K. The water to Crimea will get cut off.

L. The bridge to Crimea would be in range of Ukrainian missiles.

M. Anti ship missiles would take out any vessel attempting to resupply Crimea.

N. And Neptunes wouldn't be subject to NATO vetoes on usage.

O. Mayday was the first milestone.

P. And if we believe that the Russian intelligence agencies were correct, end June the Russian economy implodes.

Q. Outside some Swan Lake event, in a massive Berlin airlift, India and China start air bridges to feed starving Russian proletariat.

R. If history repeats itself, Kharkov should have the suitable terrain for a massive tank battle.

S. Assuming the ground has dried out by then.

T. The south seems to fixate on Kherson and Mariupol.

U. Ammunition levels might be very important in the following weeks.

V. Apparently, the Russians are trying to impose end user clauses on Soviet era weapon systems that the European have.

W. Reportedly, the collaborator who let the cat out of the bag about gassing Mariupol is under Russian custody.

X. Apparently, the red line for Zelensky would be if the Mariupol defenders are slaughtered, then negotiations are off.

Y. Zelensky also told the Russian military to get out latest by midnight Easter, or get Moskvaed.

Z. In chess terms, I believe Putin is forked.

[conon394]

According to the news -it was already mentioned here before- German Finance Minister Christian Lindner (neoliberal FDP) has confirmed that the government will boost military assistance spending in 2022 to €2 billion. "The funds will largely benefit Ukraine," Lindner tweeted.

Scholz is reluctant to deliver heavy offensive weaponry to Ukraine. German chancellor 'stalling on heavy weaponry to Ukraine'

...But Scholz is compelled to do what his coalition partners want, because if he doesn't the government would fall. Strains in German coalition as junior partners turn on Scholz over Ukraine

Oh no maybe Germany will have to make real hard economic decisions instead of performance art (cutting out nuclear power) or being dependent on Russian gas or enforcing austerity on say Greece...

Nobody talks about negotiations anymore, have you noticed that?

Pretty hard to negotiate when Putin says you are a non state and should accept Moscow's dictates because. Ludicus but maybe your country is not Putin's to do list so whatever huh?

The U.S. is committed to the economic destruction of Russia, even if to achieve this end Ukrainians may have to fight to the last Ukrainian. In the process, Europe will be economically devastated, and Europe, committing haraquiri, doesn't seem to care. It is almost unbelievable. Ukraine deserves humanitarian support? that's obvious, people die and suffer, it's not their fault what's going on. But that's not what I'm talking about.

Last I checked Russia started a war. results very with that. Europe will economically devastate how exactly. What are you talking about abject capitation to Putin's fantasy world?

What do we have now? financial sanctions on Russia that hurt Europe.The EU purchasing and sending weapons to a non-EU country at war; Europe's biggest refugee crisis since 1945. The chance of one or two nuclear tactical weapons being used in Europe increases with each passing day, and the United States, favored by its geography, is not likely to suffer, unless a nuclear world war escalates. From a geopolitical perspective, it is not needed to quote Mearsheimer. Just use common sense

Started by whom again invading what nation?

On nuclear weapons the only person threatening to do that so far is well Putin. Not NATO.

The US and NATO are totally belligerent. This presents a real danger to Russia.

How?

Someone here said that Mearsheimer is "especially insightful", “tell me things I want to hear” and if I remember correctly, is "a great patriot"- All this praise derives from the fact that Mearsheimer rightly said that China is the main competitor of the US.

Whatever and he is full of crap on Ukraine. . China may be a competitor to the US but so is Russia.

Mearsheimer is critical of the US expansionism, says the West is principally responsible for the Ukraine crisis

How exactly we hurt Putin's feeling about playing at great power and let countries that did not want to be his sock puppets not be? I thought Mearsheimer was all about Great power IRT. Thus the US as as it will where it will and does not to give a crap about Putin's feelings. You can't have IRT in direction only.

He also criticizes the US policy towards Israel -in this respect he wrote the most devastating article I have ever read in my life.

Really do tell is not the US great power and if it chooses to make Israel a supported client state what matter is anything else - but do cite an link please.

And when it comes to the war in Ukraine he does not blame solely the United States, he also blames the Ukrainian nationalist far right, the anti-democratic elites at the top of the state apparatus. He writes, “Zelensky has very little maneuver room because on his right are a large number of Ukrainians who don’t want him to make any concessions to the Russians and those far right elements coupled with America’s unwillingness to see Russia win in any way means that Ukraine itself is unlikely to be able to push for neutral country”.

Pretty sure the solid depth of national resistance to the Russian invasion makes that argument invalid and sound really stupid but whatever.

[Coughdrop addict]

From what I've observed, there are four breeds of Russian trolls operating on the western internet.

1. Combative. These will always mock and belittle you and use intimidation, bragging that Russia could take on the world single-handedly. Very aggressive trolls. A LOT of pseudo-intellectual babble utilizing Fox News or Alex Jones jargon. A lot of useless links to Russian sources.

2. The concern troll. Plays dumb. Often asks questions that appear innocent, but with the ulterior motive of spreading confusion about what's really happening. Can be hard to distinguish if they're naturally slow, or just pretending.

3. 9 to 5er. Simply there to do a job. Goes by the script provided for the day. Copy, Paste, then moves on to the next site.

4. The conspiracy racist. This one tries to spread hate and sow discord in the west. Uses the words "Brandon", "cultural Marxism", "Soros", ect a lot. They are subtle sometimes, but obvious most of the time. Can be difficult to distinguish from a real Trump supporter/alt-righter/plain old-fashioned bigot.

[Muizer]

@ludicus. How many posts have you made now criticizing the US and Europe without specifying what the alternative to military support for Ukraine should be? Your argument consistently omit which consequences the west should accept for not supporting Ukraine militarily. It's getting very tiresome that you leave us all to guess or assume what your beliefs in that regard are and that you do not even respond when people ask you or make these assumptions for you. Your posts seem designed to sow doubt and nothing more. Is that also what Mersheimer is about, or is he decent enough to openly express what the alternative course of action should be?

[nhytgbvfeco2]

@ludicus. How many posts have you made now criticizing the US and Europe without specifying what the alternative to military support for Ukraine should be?

I believe he mentioned multiple times that Ukraine should surrender. You see, USA bad, and as such everyone else must submit to the worst regimes on earth just to own the US. The US is so bad, in fact, that a literal genocide is a better alternative than the US gving you weapons or something.

[conon394]

At this point I actually think if the US had intervened in the Rwandan Genocide Ludicus would find some way of arguing it was a bad thing. I'm not sure what. Either we wasting our time via IRT theory and pivoting to China soon enough. Or because like all military actions some civilians would be killed as the US struggled to identify the various factions particularly the perpetrators has tried to melt back into the scenery as it were. And of course there be a coda that somehow some international law effort would saved the day sans the US... err wait it did not. That must be the fault of the US too.

[conon394]

1. Happy Easter, or whatever you prefer celebrating.

Right. Leg of Lamb, Kielbasa, Perogies, Cucumber salad slow cooked dried peas, pickled beets and Chruściki (and potatoes of course). Not driving anywhere so also raising more than few cups to my Polish relatives and some serious card playing with the family (buy in is household chores for chips).

[Alastor]

Initially, I thought that Ukraine surrendering was the sensible choice. I did not believe that Russia wanted to take over Ukraine, except for areas already out of Kiev's control, but rather to control it via a puppet regime. A quick resolution to the conflict and the installation of a government friendly to Russia would have minimized the casualties and destruction of the war, as well as Russia's stay in Ukraine. Of course at the time all the information I had were pointing towards a quick victory of the mighty Russian army over the shambles that was the Ukrainian one. That didn't turn out exactly like that. Ukraine resisted effectively, Russia stayed for longer and things have gotten uglier and uglier.

Without control of Kiev, Russia can't win this war. Even if they win the fighting in the south and east they will not achieve their stated objectives and will be worse off than they were before this started. The Ukrainian government has little incentive to capitulate as long as they are secure in their capital. Personally, I don't see an exit strategy at this point. Unless Russia intends to try for Kiev again, that is. But currently, I believe that the fighting will simply continue until enough people have died to warrant a closure. My hope remains, that Russia will not be brought to a point where they believe mass carpet bombings, or god forbid, nukes are justified.

If someone sees a realistic, quicker way out of this. Let me know. Meanwhile, inflation in my little corner of Europe has reached almost 10%. At this rate, maybe we'll even give Turkey a run for their money.

[reavertm]

If someone sees a realistic, quicker way out of this. Let me know. Meanwhile, inflation in my little corner of Europe has reached almost 10%. At this rate, maybe we'll even give Turkey a run for their money.

Pandemic situation is slowly improving so it should amortise raising costs due to war.
Infamous Russia 1 channel pundits, recently, surprisingly started talking about withdrawal, drawing similarities to Afghanistan, that "goals have been met", operation is too costly and that Ukraine should better de-nazify itself.
So hopefully, perhaps exit strategy is to do pull back, do victory lap, and hope "the West" doesn't gloat over it.

[Alastor]

So hopefully, perhaps exit strategy is to do pull back, do victory lap, and hope "the West" doesn't gloat over it.

That would probably be the most painless way out of it. But I'm not sure how realistic it is.

[conon394]

If someone sees a realistic, quicker way out of this. Let me know. Meanwhile, inflation in my little corner of Europe has reached almost 10%. At this rate, maybe we'll even give Turkey a run for their money.

Not sure still why keep looking for a quicker painless capitulation as a good thing.

Initially, I thought that Ukraine surrendering was the sensible choice

Why exactly or rather easy to say for somebody else.

----------------------

Pandemic situation is slowly improving so it should amortise raising costs due to war.

Would help more if China stopped it lock down policy a quietly admitted its vaccines were just very good.

[Alastor]

Not sure still why keep looking for a quicker painless capitulation as a good thing.

Why I'm looking for a quicker and more painless way out of this? Because a slow and more painful way is obviously worse. Is this really a debatable point?

Unless the goal really is to bleed Russia dry. All the way to the last Ukrainian, as some have said. But I would like to think you are not saying that.

Why exactly or rather easy to say for somebody else.

I explained why right after. In the very same paragraph.

[conon394]

Why I'm looking for a quicker and more painless way out of this? Because a slow and more painful way is obviously worse. Is this really a debatable point?

Yes it is you consign Ukraine to Russian orbit. Putin's orbit . Rather say have the Potential to be Poland. You also potentially just make the Baltic's or Moldova or all Georgia share the same fate. You also just duck hard choices the US and EU should make that the pandemic already made clear but two supply shocks in a row should hopfully make nations pull the band aid off and stop living in a the end of history fantasy world.

I explained why right after. In the very same paragraph.

Sorry I missed any good explanation.

[Alastor]

Yes it is you consign Ukraine to Russian orbit. Putin's orbit . Rather say have the Potential to be Poland. You also potentially just make the Baltic's or Moldova or all Georgia share the same fate. You also just duck hard choices the US and EU should make that the pandemic already made clear but two supply shocks in a row should hopfully make nations pull the band aid off and stop living in a the end of history fantasy world.

I even said one post before yours that Russia withdrawing and pretending they won would probably be the most painless way out of this currently. Though I don't consider it realistic, I still agreed. That proves that I'm not looking for a quicker and more painless way that leads to Russia's victory, as you erroneously state, but a quicker and more painless way out of this mess period. Initially, I was convinced that Russia would make quick work of the Ukrainian military. I was not the only one that thought this way and there were good reasons to. With that understanding a quick surrender made sense, yes. The rest of your slippery slope oeuvre is the same tired non sequitur. Even a Russian victory in Ukraine wouldn't mean that Russia would attack the Baltics next, that's just not how it works.

You say the governments of the EU and the US should pull the band aid off, make the hard choices, claiming these supply shocks will force their hand. That's not accurate. Politicians always look for the easy way out, it's the curse of our democratic systems that long term planning and hard choices are not palatable to the electorate. So they are avoided. All these supply shocks will do is impoverish us, further hollow out our middle classes, increase inequality and create an even more volatile political environment. While politicians will continue deflecting, misdirecting and gerrymandering to remain in power. If you think this trend is about to break, you have a lot more faith in our politicians than I do.

Sorry I missed any good explanation.

Actually, you pretended no explanation was given at all. Not agreeing with my explanation is fine, we could discuss it and if not, to each his own anyway. Pretending you didn't even see it is you not debating in good faith. C'est tout.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Oh no maybe Germany will have to make real hard economic decisions instead of performance art (cutting out nuclear power) or being dependent on Russian gas or enforcing austerity on say Greece...

Typical american arrogance. No clue of what the energy situation in Germany is but talking:

France Turns to Coal as Nuclear Plant Shutdowns Threaten Power Grid

France expects to exceed self-imposed limits on coal usage to avoid power outages. This comes as nuclear power plants undergo maintenance and there are not enough renewable energy systems to fill the gap.
...
With 17 of the country’s 56 nuclear power plants temporarily shut down for planned or emergency maintenance, the French Ministry of the Ecological Transition wants to raise limitations imposed in 2019 on the number of hours its three remaining coal-fired power plants are allowed to operate.

https://jpt.spe.org/france-turns-to-...ten-power-grid

Germany is a net exporter of electricity, even to France


Understanding the difference between commercial and physical flows of electricity is critical to get the picture right about electricity trade in Europe.
2017 was another record year for Germany’s commercial net exports of electricity to neighboring countries; +60.2 terawatt-hours (TWh) (Map).

• Note: negative net exports mean Germany imports more electricity than it exports, i.e. Germany is net importer.
• Source: created by Renewable Energy Institute based on Agora Energiewende, The Energy Transition in the Power Sector: State of Affairs in 2017 (January 2018).

The map above notably shows that Germany exported 13.7 TWh more to France than it imported.
That is because electricity prices were lower in Germany than they were in France (Chart 1).
These low prices in Germany are the result of the significant deployment of close to zero marginal costs wind and solar power in the country since the acceleration of the Energiewende (Chart 2).So, why are there still people believing that Germany relies on France to power its energy transition?
The probable answer is because of a confusion between commercial and physical flows of electricity.
For instance, representations of physical flows of electricity – such as the one below in Japan Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)’s latest Energy White Paper 2017 – show Germany as a major electricity importer from nuclear powerhouse France. Yet we have seen this is not the case on a commercial basis.


https://www.renewable-ei.org/en/acti.../20180302.html

Yes Germany made a mistake with the dependency of russian gas, but Putin is a former KGB agent, trained to deceive others. And russian natural gas should only be for the time between carbon energy economy and full renewable energy economy.

Politicians make wrong decisions. happens.

All these supply shocks will do is impoverish us, further hollow out our middle classes, increase inequality and create an even more volatile political environment.

And in the end will decrease the financial and military aid to Ukraine.

The best is to buy russian gas as long we have not enough other sources and pump weapons and money into Ukraine to prevent a russian victory.