Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Vanoi]

An insult would be calling them South Macedonia.

Meanwhile

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ved-in-ukraine

US Abrams tanks have arrived in Ukraine. There are some unconfirmed reports that Ukraine might get an additional 30 more tanks.

[Alastor]

CIS like the USSR and Tsarist Empire before it is a multi-ethnic empire, but that didn't stop the Tsars and USSR from Russifying regions like Ukraine. IIRC there were firm longstanding plans to Russify Finland, Polish and other regions, but eradicating local identities in Ukraine has been a particular focus for regimes based in Moscow and St Petersberg.

Putin has explicitly appealed to those entities as a model (and justification) for CIS rule in Ukraine. He's also disparaged Ukrainian ethnicity as a subset of Russian, writing bad history where state, church, nation and empire are confused.

The US has created a wide definition of genocide, probably to troll Türkiye, and Russia is definitely caught in that net. There aren't any death camps but I bet there's penal servitude, and a very grim yoke for Ukrainians under Putin's rule. The abduction of children reads a lot like hostage taking and is part of a campaign marked by deliberate cruelty toward civilians by the CIS forces, from blowing dams to using unguided munitions in civilian populated areas.

Russian nationalism is a key element in Putin's regime, as is the national church and the coopting of historical figures and regimes. He is definitely playing the Tsar here, and you can't ignore his deliberate cruelty because he happens to meet a loose definition of genocide but not a tighter one. These crimes would not be committed in peace time, and as the ones who started the war (which they still dishonestly deny is a war) Putin's regime bears the greater part of the blame.

Xification as far as multiethnic societies go is hardly unique to Russia. It's actually present in every single one of them to some extend or the other. It's not even restricted to empires. Even Ukraine dabbled in it. But I was clearly talking about extermination there. Do note, that doesn't mean I like xification, particularly the aggressive type, if I do see an intense and systematic Russification attempt by the Russians in Ukraine I will protest it. I'm simply saying that throwing the word genocide around willy-nilly is far from ideal.

If there is penal servitude that's bad and provided the purpose is to get rid of Ukrainians specifically then that would bring us closer to genocide indeed. But this is an assumption. I have not seen evidence of that. Do note what it was I said, I don't deny that a genocide is possible, what I said is there is no clear evidence of one, just assumptions. As for the children, that is a case again full of assumptions. How do we even know those children are ethnic Ukrainians? What evidence do we have they aren't, at least in part, ethnic Russian kids? That they have Ukrainian citizenship? That's hardly convincing considering Russians have inhabited much of what Russia today occupies. That's one of the many things we assume the worst of without evidence. And let's not even start on what the actual intent here is.

I don't know what your point in the end is? That war crimes are happening? Well yes, it's a war. Name one war that didn't involve war crimes? I will be more than happy to accept the US's calls for Putin's imprisonment for this, as soon as every living US president is thrown to jail next to him. If that's not about to happen then recognising these calls as no more than a geopolitical power move on their behalf, I'm simply not willing to play their game.

[Coughdrop addict]

While they will deny it I think most Russians and their apologists are aware Russia is committing war crimes on a scale not seen since WWII, but simply don't see it as an issue because it is holy Russia doing it. Basically if Russia does something to a "lesser people", like mass kidnappings of Ukrainian children, it's okay because Russia is a great power and it's simply another step towards Russia's manifest destiny of world domination. On the other hand if, for example, after the war the US decides to start rounding up Russian children and shipping them back to the states, they'd be outraged.

The hypocrisy is the whole point; it shows they think they're better than anyone else, that standards and rules are not meant to apply equally.

[Ludicus]

Nowadays everything is a genocide...Do note that genocide requires intent.

Well, it makes sense, communists in Russia used to eat children for breakfast.
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One year later, why is the Nord Stream attack still a mystery?

I'd say it's a "mystery".

Ukraine war live-The Guardian

Russia’s defence ministry on Tuesday released footage showing Viktor Sokolov, the commander of the Black Sea fleet, attending a defence board meeting via video call, a day after Ukraine claimed that Sokolov was killed in an attack on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea fleet in Sevastopol.Suspilne, Ukraine’s state broadcaster, has reported that Ukraine’s special forces are “currently clarifying information regarding the possible death” of Adm Viktor Sokolov.

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Canada's government calls on House speaker to resign

Just after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered an address in the House of Commons on Friday, Canadian lawmakers gave 98-year-old Yaroslav Hunka a standing ovation when Speaker Anthony Rota drew attention to him. Rota introduced Hunka as a war hero who fought for the First Ukrainian Division. The 1st Ukrainian Division was also known as the Waffen-SS Galicia Division, or the SS 14th Waffen Division, a voluntary unit that was under the command of the Nazis.The speaker’s office said Monday it was Rota’s son who contacted Hunka’s local office to see if it was possible if he could attend Zelenskyy’s speech.

As we all know, Ukraine has no Nazi heroes, as the Ukrainian historian Serhy Yekelchyk puts it: "it can be argued that in the course of the EuroMaidan Revolution, the image of Bandera acquired new meaning as a symbol of resistance to the corrupt, Russian-sponsored regime, quite apart from the historical Bandera’s role as a purveyor of exclusivist ethno-nationalism.”
Quite apart, of course. Following this reasoning, we can say the same about Yaroslav Hunka. If the Speaker of Canada's House of Commons had read Yekelchyk, he wouldn't have resigned.

[conon394]

If it were just that… US claims to Central Pacific: an area "nearly as large as the continental United States"
US flouts international law with Pacific military claims

Unsurprising biased article that touches not at all on China Qin Destiny based claims or its actions in the Pacific again only the US has agency and its always the bad guy using it. Hows that one nation two umm policy thing working out in Hong Kong?

In my opinion, the Treaty of Tordesillas- blessed by the Catholic Church- is still in force. The Americans and Chinese have no choice but to surf on dry land.

Back in the day Portugal paid to have a top tier navy.

To quote JRRT

"'A king is he that can hold his own or else his title is vain. Thingol does but grant us lands where his power does not run"

The Dutch and English cared not much for the Treaty of Tordesillas

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Also. So wait a few minutes so you are all in favor of forcing Ukrine to make peace with Russia who launched an aggressive war, chop the country up and reduce it to a puppet of Russia because well Russia says it is its pergrative. But the US burnishes some old treaties with some islands in the Pacifica and god no its overturning the UN and the is and evil imperial power? SO really you are going Tankie here only US imperialism is bad?

[Cyclops]

Post WWII insurance policies have proved extremely problematic.

We demonized all the Soviets so hard in thd 30s Hitler got a pass, then we demonized the Nazis so hard in thd 40s that Stalin got a pass, then we demonized the Soviets so hard in th 50s & 60s we had to sneak Nazis into the MIC.

Australia's part was to host US Ustashi training camps in the bush where "youth groups" could hold "training" to "overthrow Tito"...I've said too much.

I guess the Canadians got to stockpile Ukrainians.

[Ludicus]

Unsurprising biased article that touches not at all on China Qin Destiny based claims or its actions in the Pacific again only the US has agency and its always the bad guy using it. Hows that one nation two umm policy thing working out in Hong Kong?
...The Dutch and English cared not much for the Treaty of Tordesillas

I was joking, to show how absurd it would be for the US to claim ownership of an area the size of the US, 6000 kilometers away from home.

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so you are all in favor of forcing Ukrine to ... reduce it to a puppet of Russia

Don´t exaggerate.I assume that what will happen -from a realistic point of view- is that Ukraine will have to make some territorial concessions, as well as admit neutrality, but that doesn't mean it will lose its independence. (edit: moreover, I think it's easy to understand that any Russian government, dictatorial or democratic, would never passively accept the US Navy being stationed in Sevastopol, controlling the Black Sea).
Almost three months after it began, it is clear that the Ukrainian counter-offensive has not achieved its goal: to reach the Sea of Azov. Former commander of the British Joint Forces Command, Richard Barrons, said that " Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible-Financial Times.

However, it is the West that seems to be weakening, unable to respond capably to Ukraine's demands. Admiral Rob Bauer, chairman of the Alliance's Military Committee, publicly acknowledged that Ukraine's ammunition needs exceeded the production capacity of the Western defense industry. September 16, Joint press conference by Chair of the Military Committee

- production capacity is lagging behind
- delivery times are moving to the right
- and prices for equipment and ammunition are shooting up. Right now, we are paying more and more for exactly the same… and that means that we cannot make sure that the increased defence spending actually leads to more security.
Our liberal economies are not apt at creating the prioritisation that is so desperately needed right now.

For her part, security expert Kori Schake, in an article published in "The Atlantic" magazine, sounded the alarm about US military capacity in the event of a large-scale conflict.
September 16 Ukraine Isn't the Reason the U.S. Is Unprepared for War

In a major conflict, the U.S. would run out of munitions in a few weeks, and in less than a week for some crucial categories. The quantity of weapons we are providing Ukraine is marginal compared with necessary weapons that we have not stocked.
The lack of defense production has created an alarming gap between what the United States says it can do in its strategy and what it’s actually capable of.

A hypothetical Russian victory in the Ukrainian war and a US defeat threatens to cause immense reputational damage to Washington, in addition to the enormous US commitment to this conflict, materialized in the 113 billion dollars spent in about a year and a half of war to support the Ukrainian armed forces, something the US has become accustomed to, if we take into account the wars it provoked after World War II and didn't win (excluding the Iraq war (1990) and the Korean war, which it "stalled").
In fact, the US has not yet come out of the war in Ukraine, nor does it know how it will come out of it, and it is already preparing to enter into another - with China - when its unpreparedness for such an adventure is obvious. Mark Milley wisely said: "We should try our best to avoid an open conflict with China."

[Laser101]

At the very least it is a milder form of ethnic cleansing, deliberately taking the children of one ethnic or national group and raising them in other households for the explicit purpose of forced assimilation. It's not the same as systematic slaughter, but the Russians don't actually want to go there. Why ruin a perfectly good tax base in Ukraine once the Ukrainians have been hypothetically conquered? Hitler made the mistake of depopulating the Soviet Union. He did so not just by attrition in warfare but by deliberately rounding up every single able-bodied Jew the Einsatzgruppen could find along with unruly Slav partisans, Gypsies, intellectuals, socialists, the elderly, the disabled, homosexuals, etc. for mass execution and death by starvation, disease, and forced labor in concentration camps.

The Nazis were distinctly unique in this regard though. There are plenty of historical cases of imperial powers exercising brutality in crushing resistance, but it's usually simply a means to an end. That seems the most likely interpretation here.

Then again the Russians have done a fine job depopulating Ukraine by population displacement, causing the biggest refugee crisis in Europe since WWII. That and just arbitrarily bombing civilians in apartment blocks, parks and marketplaces as far as Lviv, and sexually torturing little teenage girls to death in Kherson. In a move somewhat reminiscent of Lebensraum, they have also made efforts to repopulate areas with Russian civilians, many of whom had moved to Crimea following the 2014 seizure and before the February 2022 large scale invasion.

Not sure Crimea required a lot of effort; the population was already dominated by ethnic Russians before that. Although Russia isn't exactly overflowing with prospective colonists; from what I've read a lot of the rural areas are already depopulated by migration to Moscow and St Petersburg. I don't know if there'll be much to lure people to a region badly battered by conflict.

Yeah, that definitely put a lot of egg on the face of Canada. Perhaps they were too distracted with their recent Indian diplomatic standoff to do a proper background check on that guy? Either way it does reveal an unsettling truth that Ukraine did not exactly punish or malign all of its former Nazis after WWII, but then again neither did Russia, which was the central component of the USSR. The Soviet Union and USA scrambled to gobble up as many Nazi German rocket scientists as they could to develop nuclear bombs and compete against each other in the Cold War era space race. The mere existence and up until recently the widespread acceptance of the Wagner Group (gee, I wonder which German composer inspired that name) demonstrates that Russia has no problem accepting its own Neo-Nazis, equivalents of Azov Battalion.

Immediately post WW2 Ukraine was obviously still part of the Soviet Union, so that's not quite the best description. Fundamentally, Eastern European attitudes towards WW2 German collaboration by nationalist groups seem largely a question of how much they hate the Russians at any given time.

[reavertm]

Ukrainian offensive is slow because they don't like to "throw themselves at machine guns" and there are deep minefields to clear through. How dare they! The fact that they prefer to value their lives and take careful, systematic approach, is somehow read by some people in the West as failing.
I'm sorry to break it for you folks, it's not WW2.

[Ludicus]

An interesting post.

The Nazis were distinctly unique in this regard though. There are plenty of historical cases of imperial powers exercising brutality in crushing resistance, but it's usually simply a means to an end.

In fact, the Holocaust was historically unique as an instance of genocide, because the Nazi racial imperative was that "all Jews must die, and that they must die here and now”, as Hitler put it "On the Jewish Question": "The ultimate goal must definitely be the removal of the Jews altogether".

Fundamentally, Eastern European attitudes towards WW2 German collaboration by nationalist groups seem largely a question of how much they hate the Russians at any given time

As I wrote last week,"The only thing that unites Poland and Ukraine is their common enemy. They don't love each other, as we've seen before"
Ukraine-Poland row exposes history, limits of devotion -Sometimes hating Moscow is different from loving Kyiv. (published yesterday)

…The other thing to which Ukrainians should pay attention is that, as dramatized by Poland’s latest actions, hatred for Russia and real sympathy for Ukraine are not at all the same thing and may even contradict each other. Concerning Polish hatred of Russia, there can be no doubt; but underlying the remarkably harsh rhetoric of recent days has been the fact that historically speaking, Poles and Ukrainians also used to be bitter enemies.

The Polish kingdom, and the Polish republic between 1919 and 1939, sought to Polonize their Ukrainian subjects just as the Russians tried to Russify theirs. Ukrainian revolts against Polish rule massacred Poles along with Jews. Political struggles between Poles and Ukrainians for control of Galicia helped undermine the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the years before 1914. After 1918, Poland annexed the Ukrainian areas of Galicia by force, and held them until they were transferred to Soviet Ukraine by Josef Stalin as a result of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact - which is why they are in Ukraine today, and not in Poland.

During and immediately after the Second World War, Ukrainian nationalist partisans massacred tens of thousands of ethnic Poles, and Ukrainians serving in the 1st Galician Division of the Waffen SS participated in ruthless German operations against the Polish resistance. In recent years, both Kyiv and Warsaw have sought to play down this history, but memories of it continue to flow very close to the surface on both sides.This history is peculiar to Poland and Ukraine...

[Laser101]

An interesting post.

In fact, the Holocaust was historically unique as an instance of genocide, because the Nazi racial imperative was that "all Jews must die, and that they must die here and now”, as Hitler put it "On the Jewish Question": "The ultimate goal must definitely be the removal of the Jews altogether".

Well, it wasn't the first time a "kill them all" order was issued historically. However, the usual reason was because a populace was particularly rebellious, as with e.g. the Dzungars or the Circassians. The unique attribute of the Holocaust is that the motives were purely ideological; it wasn't a case of the usual paradigm of 'stop a rebellion by leaving no one alive to rebel'.

As I wrote last week,"The only thing that unites Poland and Ukraine is their common enemy. They don't love each other, as we've seen before"
Ukraine-Poland row exposes history, limits of devotion -Sometimes hating Moscow is different from loving Kyiv. (published yesterday)

Eh, shared enmity covereth a great many sins. And that doesn't seem likely to change.

[Ludicus]

Well, it wasn't the first time a "kill them all" order was issued historically. However, the usual reason was because a populace was particularly rebellious, as with e.g. the Dzungars or the Circassians. The unique attribute of the Holocaust is that the motives were purely ideological; it wasn't a case of the usual paradigm of 'stop a rebellion by leaving no one alive to rebel.

The trivialization of the Holocaust was discussed here, until the exhaustion Holocaust-Comparative trivialization-TWCenter
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Poland is currently investigating whether the Nazi who received a standing ovation in the Canadian Parliament during Zelensky's visit (Canada's biggest diplomatic embarrassment) is wanted for anti-Polish crimes and could potentially face extradition.
Poland seeks extradition of Ukrainian SS veteran - POLITICO

In view of the scandalous events in the Canadian Parliament, which involved honoring, in the presence of President Zelenskyy, a member of the criminal Nazi SS Galizien formation, I have taken steps towards the possible extradition of this man to Poland,” Czarnek said on X, formerly Twitter. In a letter to Poland’s Institute of National Remembrance, a body that researches and investigates past crimes against the Polish nation, Czarnek asked it to “urgently examine” whether Hunka is wanted for crimes against Polish people of Jewish origin, adding that “signs of such crimes are grounds to apply to Canada for his extradition.”

The Ukrainian press -the European Pravda- disputes this claim, saying that "all these are old accusations" and that "no evidence has ever been presented at the Nuremberg Tribunal to prove the guilt of the 'Galichyna' division and its fighters in crimes against humanity"; all this is "a false accusation and a gift to the Russians and the Poles".
The Simon Wiesenthal Centre in Vienna was also criticized for joining the demands for an investigation into "this issue", and the article ends by saying that "if Ukrainians are used to Russian attacks, Poland's reaction was quite unexpected."
Gift for Russian Propaganda: What 'Nazi Scandal' in Canadian Parliament Showed.

To conclude, Trudeau should be ashamed of himself for daring to apologize. He should know that there are no Nazis in Ukraine, and there never have been.

[mishkin]

The trivialization of the Holocaust was discussed here,

It is not trivial to deport hundreds of children to "Russify them", execute civilians while they walk through the streets or create mass graves on the outskirts of towns. If your argument is "the Nazis were worse" okay, congratulations, but what I have described in the first line are not "normal" actions in a war. You prefer to call it extra-barbarism rather than genocide? Fine

[Laser101]

The trivialization of the Holocaust was discussed here, until the exhaustion Holocaust-Comparative trivialization-TWCenter

I don't think that's the issue here? There have been plenty of other cases of ethnically-motivated violence in the past century which are more comparable to the current situation.

Poland is currently investigating whether the Nazi who received a standing ovation in the Canadian Parliament during Zelensky's visit (Canada's biggest diplomatic embarrassment) is wanted for anti-Polish crimes and could potentially face extradition.
Poland seeks extradition of Ukrainian SS veteran - POLITICO

Well, it wouldn't be the only dumb stunt the Polish government has pulled recently.