View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

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  • I support Ukraine fully.

    75 66.96%
  • I support Russia fully.

    12 10.71%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 3.57%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    6 5.36%
  • Not sure.

    7 6.25%
  • I don't care.

    8 7.14%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #5441

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Sar1n View Post
    This will help you understand what they'll be going through:
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...524838915.html

    They'll be given two weeks basic training and then thrown into the fray, because under Russian system recruits receive most training at their unit....which is kinda hard to do when you're already at the frontline.
    I had read most of that in other articles too. Though as a slight correction, they will be given a day or two of basic training before being sent to the front.

    That the beaten-down Russian people, who usually respond to decrees from their dictator with speed and fearful whimpers, are actually resisting Putin here is very telling. It may be only a matter of time before the majority realize that revolution is their only chance verses being thrown into the meat grinder of Putin's war.

    In other news: https://www.newsweek.com/vitaly-milo...kraine-1745499

    Vitaly Milonov, a Russian politician and member of Russian President Vladimir Putin's political party, touted what he said were the benefits of going to fight in the Ukraine war during a recent appearance on state television.
    BBC journalist Francis Scarr provided a translation of Milonov's comments, explaining that the State Duma member said that joining the conflict would allow potential soldiers to show that they're "real Russian men."
    "Regarding men with multiple children, I think it's a chance for men to prove that they're men, not only because they're able to make use of their primary sexual characteristics but are also men on a fundamental level," Milonov said, according to Scarr's translation. "And at the present time, every man is getting–I'm speaking about my personal feelings–the opportunity to prove that you're a man. That you're a Russian bloke. Because if you're a man, if you want to aspire to the role of a real Russian, the president has given you this chance."
    Strange how none of Putin's allies and their sons are signing up. Don't they want to prove their manliness?

  2. #5442

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    I had read most of that in other articles too. Though as a slight correction, they will be given a day or two of basic training before being sent to the front.

    That the beaten-down Russian people, who usually respond to decrees from their dictator with speed and fearful whimpers, are actually resisting Putin here is very telling. It may be only a matter of time before the majority realize that revolution is their only chance verses being thrown into the meat grinder of Putin's war.

    In other news: https://www.newsweek.com/vitaly-milo...kraine-1745499


    Strange how none of Putin's allies and their sons are signing up. Don't they want to prove their manliness?
    Unfortunately, the point in largely moot. There are two groups Putin needs to keep control over to hold onto power; the military and the security services (FSB and National Guard). As long as they remain loyal and able to suppress opposition, he can't be deposed.

    Consider the cases of Mubarak and Morsi in Egypt; it wasn't the protestors that removed them, it was the army. Revolutions only succeed if the military lets it happen. If, say, a sizable number of the military and National Guard troops in Moscow went over to the rioters, then​ Putin would be serious trouble.

  3. #5443
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    Unfortunately, the point in largely moot. There are two groups Putin needs to keep control over to hold onto power; the military and the security services (FSB and National Guard). As long as they remain loyal and able to suppress opposition, he can't be deposed.

    Consider the cases of Mubarak and Morsi in Egypt; it wasn't the protestors that removed them, it was the army. Revolutions only succeed if the military lets it happen. If, say, a sizable number of the military and National Guard troops in Moscow went over to the rioters, then​ Putin would be serious trouble.
    Opposition? What opposition?

  4. #5444

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Papay View Post
    Opposition? What opposition?
    Disgruntled protestors or rioters mainly.

  5. #5445
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    Disgruntled protestors or rioters mainly.
    Well unless you find people inside Russia that will stage a coup with the help of the west like it happened in Kiev in 2014, rioting is pointless

  6. #5446
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    Unfortunately, the point in largely moot. There are two groups Putin needs to keep control over to hold onto power; the military and the security services (FSB and National Guard). As long as they remain loyal and able to suppress opposition, he can't be deposed.

    Consider the cases of Mubarak and Morsi in Egypt; it wasn't the protestors that removed them, it was the army. Revolutions only succeed if the military lets it happen. If, say, a sizable number of the military and National Guard troops in Moscow went over to the rioters, then​ Putin would be serious trouble.
    Good point! In the revolution of February/March 1917, it seems that the decision of military units to support the demonstrators had a decisive effect.

    When the news came that several elite regiments of the Imperial Guard had revolted and joined the demonstrators, there was no longer any doubt that a revolution was underway. Khabalov tried to send a group of 1,000 handpicked troops under the command of Col. Alexander Kutepov, a well-respected officer who had just returned from the front, to arrest the mutinous soldiers. This proved to be the only serious attempt to counter the growing uprising in the capital, but it amounted to nothing. The fate of Kutepovís force illustrated the transformed mentality of the soldiery. Whole regiments, marching with the avowed intention of obeying orders, no sooner came into contact with the demonstrators than they suddenly fraternized and shared their arms with them. - Encyclopedia Britannica
    Presumably, Russia's leaders are well aware of the need to keep the support of the military and the security services. I'm wondering what would cause this support to be lost. Food shortages and high numbers of military casualties seem to have been factors in the February/March 1917 revolution (and also the revolution in October of the same year), but was that why military units chose to side with the demonstrators, or were there other reasons?

  7. #5447

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alwyn View Post
    Good point! In the revolution of February/March 1917, it seems that the decision of military units to support the demonstrators had a decisive effect.



    Presumably, Russia's leaders are well aware of the need to keep the support of the military and the security services. I'm wondering what would cause this support to be lost. Food shortages and high numbers of military casualties seem to have been factors in the February/March 1917 revolution (and also the revolution in October of the same year), but was that why military units chose to side with the demonstrators, or were there other reasons?
    The most obvious cause for defection would be if they weren't being paid. Also, if a lot of unwilling draftees are gathered near the capital, then any riot could quickly grow dangerous (since now there's a lot of rioters with guns). So far there haven't been any issues with food in Moscow AFAIK though, so that cause isn't likely to be an issue.

    According to some rumours though, Putin has been involved with decisions at the operational level, including overruling decisions made by military commanders (e.g. prohibiting them from abandoning Kherson since it was impractical to defend). If true, this will probably severely irritate the military command staff, which seems like a dangerous thing to do.

  8. #5448
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    (e.g. prohibiting them from abandoning Kherson since it was impractical to defend)
    I dunno might be the right call if you know you are going to play the vote card and now part of Russia Nazi Ukrainians are invading. Its clearly a tough fight in the south and Russia seems to have massed solid depth there. Keeping Kherson is politically important.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  9. #5449
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Laser101 View Post
    The most obvious cause for defection would be if they weren't being paid. Also, if a lot of unwilling draftees are gathered near the capital, then any riot could quickly grow dangerous (since now there's a lot of rioters with guns). So far there haven't been any issues with food in Moscow AFAIK though, so that cause isn't likely to be an issue.

    According to some rumours though, Putin has been involved with decisions at the operational level, including overruling decisions made by military commanders (e.g. prohibiting them from abandoning Kherson since it was impractical to defend). If true, this will probably severely irritate the military command staff, which seems like a dangerous thing to do.
    These are rumors just like the rumors that claimed that Russian forces are about to surrender two weeks ago. Instead they vote to become part of Russia

  10. #5450
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Papay View Post
    These are rumors just like the rumors that claimed that Russian forces are about to surrender two weeks ago. Instead they vote to become part of Russia
    Take a rain check on that - err voted?
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  11. #5451
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Take a rain check on that - err voted?
    I am not a Russian neither Ukrainian

  12. #5452
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Papay View Post
    These are rumors just like the rumors that claimed that Russian forces are about to surrender two weeks ago. Instead they vote to become part of Russia
    At gun point. And then the results will be doctored still after the fact, for good measure.

    **
    The mass recruitment of the Russian population into the army may yet be Putinís undoing. He is giving weapons to a malcontented, disloyal portion of the population, fueling the potential for mutiny and revolution.

  13. #5453

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Papay View Post
    These are rumors just like the rumors that claimed that Russian forces are about to surrender two weeks ago. Instead they vote to become part of Russia
    Indeed, Russian troops were the ones that voted that Kherson should join Russia.

  14. #5454

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    I dunno might be the right call if you know you are going to play the vote card and now part of Russia Nazi Ukrainians are invading. Its clearly a tough fight in the south and Russia seems to have massed solid depth there. Keeping Kherson is politically important.
    Except that also means that losing it has a far bigger impact.

  15. #5455
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Begging for permission would be the "let's belittle and ridicule Putin and Russia some more" interpretation.
    ...the other interpretation being Putin grovels recreationally?

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    But either way, it means China is still on Russia's side. Which is the point. it would be interesting to see if China would provide more meaningful assistance too.
    Right so the leader of Russia publicly states he's not angry that China isn't backing his land grab, and that proves China is on Russia's side, but they're not actually helping much. But what if....?

    Hard to see this as anything but Putin getting a public spanking from Xi. Add that to the Russian federation lives and assets he's thrown away, the mobilizing without a state of war, the sanctions, its not going great for this brigand.
    Jatte lambastes Calico Rat

  16. #5456
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Putin's "partial" mobilization of Russia will be his undoing, hundreds of thousands of men are running away right now, and probably a part of their families as well. Hundreds of thousands of men are just now leaving to die at the front. Hundreds of thousands of workers disappeared in two days. The economy is now starting to become a paper ship as a result of the sanctions.

    FSB reports 260,000 men left Russia, wants to close borders

    Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has reported that 261,000 men had left Russia after the announcement of “partial” mobilisation in the country, our source in the Presidential Administration tells us.
    ...
    On 24 September, she reported, citing sources, that Putin had gone on a week-long holiday after the announcement of mobilisation.
    ...
    Meduza, citing a source in the Presidential Administration, claims the borders will be closed on 28 September, only after the end of the “referendums”.
    18+ in Irkutsk the mobilization officer was shot by a conscript.

    Kazakhstan says it won't recognise referendums in eastern Ukraine
    “As for the holding of referendums ... Kazakhstan proceeds from the principles of territorial integrity of states, their sovereign equivalence and peaceful coexistence,” ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov said.
    Russian mobilization prompts backlash as Ukraine annexation effort plows ahead

    Within Russia, there were signs that the public was losing patience with the mobilization and the war in Ukraine.

    Scuffles broke out Sunday in Makhachkala, the capital of Dagestan, where screaming women struggled with police and tried to prevent them from dragging male protesters to police vans. It was a rare sign of dissent that underscored the dangers of regional unrest over the mobilization.

    Earlier Sunday in Dagestan, an impoverished southern region that has borne a disproportionate share of military casualties in Ukraine, furious residents blocked a highway to protest the mobilization of 110 men from Endirey village, including some who had recently returned from the war, independent local media reported.

    In eastern Siberia, meanwhile, several hundred women rallied Sunday in the city of Yakutsk, chanting “No to war” before police broke up the rally and arrested participants, according to local media outlets and activist groups.

    And in Moscow, demonstrators also took to the streets Sunday to protest reports of the conscription of some who were elderly, sick, disabled or otherwise unfit or exempt from military service.
    ...
    Prominent Kremlin propagandist Margarita Simonyan, editor in chief of RT and one of the loudest cheerleaders of the war, published an astonishing Twitter thread Saturday listing cases of people wrongly mobilized. They included a 63-year-old with diabetes and cerebral ischemia, a 35-year-old with a spinal fracture and artificial vertebrate, and sole caregivers to disabled people.

  17. #5457
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    Putin's "partial" mobilization of Russia will be his undoing, hundreds of thousands of men are running away right now, and probably a part of their families as well. Hundreds of thousands of men are just now leaving to die at the front. Hundreds of thousands of workers disappeared in two days. The economy is now starting to become a paper ship as a result of the sanctions.

    FSB reports 260,000 men left Russia, wants to close borders



    18+ in Irkutsk the mobilization officer was shot by a conscript.

    Kazakhstan says it won't recognise referendums in eastern Ukraine


    Russian mobilization prompts backlash as Ukraine annexation effort plows ahead
    Wishful thinking

  18. #5458

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...war-in-ukraine

    A Russian draft officer has been shot by a man angry at his friend’s conscription and another man has set himself on fire in a protest as opposition to Vladimir Putin’s announcement of a mobilisation for the war in Ukraine grows.
    Protests also continued for a third day in Russia’s Dagestan region, where officers have fired automatic weapons in the air to disperse angry crowds. Meanwhile, thousands of cars have lined up at the Russian borders carrying young men seeking to flee the country in order to escape the draft.

    There is a sense that tensions are rising across Russia, as angry showdowns at local draft centres play out in videos published to social media and rumours circulate about an impending closure of the borders or even martial law.
    Apparently many of the draftees are being sent straight to the front with no training.

  19. #5459
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Apparently many of the draftees are being sent straight to the front with no training.
    Oh come on I'm sure they are carefully identifying (not residents of Moscow or St Petersburg) those with recent conscription service and matching them to individual vacancies in units that have been rotated away from the front so that will have time to train and develop unit cohesion while reconstituting depleted units... or not. But enough cannon fodder can probably stymie Ukraine attempts to advance again before winter. Right now Putin just needs warm bodies and more importantly the stop loss of everyone actually fighting now. In particular I'd say the south will benefit from what ever troops he shoves in. Its slow going and as long as he has artillery to shoot fresh fodder can probably maybe prevent a collapse back to the Dnieper.
    Last edited by conon394; September 26, 2022 at 02:16 PM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  20. #5460

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Papay View Post
    These are rumors just like the rumors that claimed that Russian forces are about to surrender two weeks ago. Instead they vote to become part of Russia
    The Russian forces vote to become a part of Russia? Well that is good news for Russia. It seems like they are now drafting unwilling Ukrainians and Daghestanis, criminals, anti-war protesters, and in general reluctant random men with no military training. What could go wrong?

    Given that the Russian professional spearhead force meant to take the enemy capital, Kiev, ran out of gas and supplies on the 160 km road from Belarus, I hope that the rag-tag band of recent draftees bring their own gas and supplies if they want to survive the oncoming winter.

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