Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

NYT: Experts point to deliberate explosion behind Kakhovka dam disaster

Doesnt matter who had what motive, only Russia had the means to do it, it was them.

You know what it means to say "likeliest" right? It means not certain. Yet you seem certain that was the case. Even more so you seem certain you know who did it. I mean even if there was a bomb in the dam or below it, it could have been placed by Ukrainian troops under the noses of Russia. Who would have stopped them? Russian security? Russians are completely incompetent remember.

Well, it's not as if the Russians have been particularly tactically or strategically proficient thus far.

That's a fair point.

[Kyriakos]

I assuming panic on the Russian's part. Given the cost involved it would have a better move if Ukraine was actually in the process trying a major move to cross the river - which seem to have intent of doing now (below the dam)

So while agreeing it'd make no sense for Russia to hit the dam, you still have to think it did it.
Isn't this attitude leading to falsehood?
It's a variation of what was infamously termed "doublethink" in 1984, where the party members actually realize the party line cannot be true, but also are aware that they must make themselves (this is the doubling part) think over that original thought, that it is true.

[conon394]

No what I saying it would be logical to have waited for an attack. However given Russia has mined it, ran the dam poorly and with rumors swirling of Ukrainian offensives a panicked or poorly though out move by somebody on the russian side seems the most likely option.

[Kyriakos]

That would at the very least require extreme localization of command. Which goes against the idea that Putin is everywhere.
Besides, no country has local commanders decide stuff without asking above.

[Mithradates]

You know what it means to say "likeliest" right? It means not certain. Yet you seem certain that was the case. Even more so you seem certain you know who did it. I mean even if there was a bomb in the dam or below it, it could have been placed by Ukrainian troops under the noses of Russia. Who would have stopped them? Russian security? Russians are completely incompetent remember.

Hundreds of pounds of explosives inside the part of the dam which is accessible only by Russia, hmm... It could have been everyone! Maybe the Nepalese special forces? We cant know for sure, oh no!

It was Russia.

[conon394]

That would at the very least require extreme localization of command. Which goes against the idea that Putin is everywhere.
Besides, no country has local commanders decide stuff without asking above.

Errr given Wagner can apparently capture a Russian officer after a fire fight and put him on video I'm not sure should count on too much central control.

[Alastor]

Hundreds of pounds of explosives inside the part of the dam which is accessible only by Russia, hmm... It could have been everyone! Maybe the Nepalese special forces? We cant know for sure, oh no!

It was Russia.

Maybe it was Nepalese special forces (if Ukraine has a division in their employ) indeed. I mean those Russians are so incompetent the Ukrainians would have danced circles around them and they wouldn't even notice. You think I'm just being flippant for the sake of it here? I'm not. I'm demonstrating a point. You argued earlier that Russia and their forces are colossally inept. If so, this is in the realm of possibility. If not and Russia is not this colossally inept to destroy their own defenses for no good reason then we need to investigate what happened with a more open mind. What was the motive, who had a motive and why. Who had opportunity and how. We could deduce in the end that Russia did have good reasons to blow up the dam, or even conclude that they did do so and screwed up big time for some reason. But you are simply assuming this was the case axiomatically. That's not how this works.

[Kyriakos]

Errr given Wagner can apparently capture a Russian officer after a fire fight and put him on video I'm not sure should count on too much central control.

If so, that is still not the same level. No country would have officers that decided to blow up a major dam without asking their higher-ups if it was a good idea.
Besides, this is sadly part of treating russians as if they are extraterrestrial and the same thinking or command does not apply.

[conon394]

If so, that is still not the same level. No country would have officers that decided to blow up a major dam without asking their higher-ups if it was a good idea.
Besides, this is sadly part of treating russians as if they are extraterrestrial and the same thinking or command does not apply.

No country would have its solders dig trenches in the Chernobyl exclusion zone. I suppose that bright Ideal came from Putin as well?

[Laser101]

If so, that is still not the same level. No country would have officers that decided to blow up a major dam without asking their higher-ups if it was a good idea.
Besides, this is sadly part of treating russians as if they are extraterrestrial and the same thinking or command does not apply.

1930s Japan had multiple cases of officers acting without orders (and in quite a few cases contrary to government policy) so there's a precedent for such things. Granted, the sort of military radicalism seen in for example pre-WW2 Japan or OE/Turkey isn't historically prominent in Russia.

It could be a product of the power struggle between Wagner and the Russian MoD though.

[Kyriakos]

(xpost, @conon) That still is not of the same level. You are trying to compare major actions, like destruction of the dam, to literally regiment-level decisions (if so, again).

@Laser, maybe. It's still pretty bizarre imo.

[Mithradates]

(xpost, @conon) That still is not of the same level. You are trying to compare major actions, like destruction of the dam, to literally regiment-level decisions (if so, again).

@Laser, maybe. It's still pretty bizarre imo.

You assume that destroying the dam was their primary objective.

[Ukiah]

No country would have its solders dig trenches in the Chernobyl exclusion zone. I suppose that bright Ideal came from Putin as well?

Unless the Chernobyl disaster got censored to the younger generations. They didn't know about the radiation there. I wouldn't be surprised if this was actually the case.

[Coughdrop addict]

Unless the Chernobyl disaster got censored to the younger generations. They didn't know about the radiation there. I wouldn't be surprised if this was actually the case.

From my understanding that's exactly what happened. Reportedly the Russians didn't even know what the radiation symbol on the signs meant.

[Kyriakos]

Media now promote the unintended accident explanation.

Any news of offensives/actual war developments?

[Alastor]

Media now promote the unintended accident explanation.

Any news of offensives/actual war developments?

If it really didn't benefit either side, then the explanation it was not an intentional action becomes more plausible yes.

Haven't really heard much tbh about the offensives since the dam collapsed. Maybe telegram really is where all the latest news one.

[conon394]

From my understanding that's exactly what happened. Reportedly the Russians didn't even know what the radiation symbol on the signs meant.

Seems pretty clear to me. Pretty sure my 13 year old could figure out hey maybe we should not be hanging about.

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=...Uwcaqk5Fi12NtM

[Ludicus]

If it really didn't benefit either side, then the explanation it was not an intentional action becomes more plausible yes...Haven't really heard much tbh about the offensives since the dam collapsed.

In fact, according to CNN,

an image taken by U.S. satellite technology company on May 28 shows the dam is intact but there was a section missing on June 5 before the alleged attack. There are also suggestions that the dam collapse took at least some Russian forces by surprise”. An officer in Ukraine’s armed forces told CNN that his men witnessed Russian soldiers being swept up in flood waters and fleeing the east bank of the Dnipro River. Capt. Andrei Pidlisnyi told CNN in a telephone interview that when the dam burst in the early hours of Tuesday morning, “no one on the Russian side was able to get away. All the regiments the Russians had on that side were flooded.

But who knows? CNN cannot independently verify his account.
Asked whether Russia was responsible, Sunak told ITV: Britain cannot yet say Russia responsible for dam destruction

I can’t say that definitively yet… it’s an appalling act of barbarism on Russia’s part.

In other words, “We don't know who it was, but for sure it was the Russians."

Some international commentators are taking a more cautious approach.
On one hand, military analyst Michael Kofman said to Financial Times “This disaster will affect Russian-occupied territory the most. The destruction of the dam floods the first Russian line of defence east of the Dnipro River in Kherson, though the threat of a Ukrainian river crossing was always low.”

On the other hand, Ukraine says its forces were not affected by the collapse of the Kakhovka dam because they knew how the water in the reservoir would flow.
But how could they have known that the destruction would be partial and not total? In the event of a total destruction, there would also be flooding of a relatively larger area on the western, Ukrainian bank of the river.
The W. Post writes that Ukraine predicted what would happen, “Ukraine says its military forces have not been affected by the Kakhovka dam collapse because they knew how the water from the dam’s reservoir would flow”: Ukraine launches counteroffensive against Russia

Our positions were not affected,” said Natalia Humeniuk, spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern command, on national television on Thursday afternoon local time. “We understood how the Dnieper would overflow. Considering that the (west) bank is higher than the (east), the damage to our positions has been minimal.”
She said the flooding had a greater impact on Russian positions on the east bank”.

Therefore, it seems that the hypothetical, intentional partial destruction of the dam - may benefit Russia in the short term, but not in the medium and long term.
---
The Washington Post adds, though Ukraine continues to deny,

The Ukrainian military’s long-anticipated counteroffensive against occupying Russian forces has begun, Ukraine’s troops intensified their attacks on the front line in the country’s southeast, according to four individuals in the country’s armed forces, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the battlefield developments….
(…) By cutting south through the flat fields of Zaporizhzhia, Kyiv’s forces could aim to sever the corridor of land that connects mainland Russia to the occupied Crimean Peninsula, cutting off crucial Russian supply lines. It could also attempt to liberate the city of Melitopol, which Russia has established as the region’s occupied capital, and Enerhodar, where the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is located

If we consider that the Ukrainian offensive has already started in the east (we do not know yet if with significant, practical results), this seems to mean that it was not Ukraine's intention to attack across the Dnieper River.
One day we will know who or what caused the partial destruction of the dam, and above all, a huge humanitarian catastrophe.
---

Recent news that should worry those of us who do not suffer from the invincibility complex and have a well-functioning brain amygdala,
Nato members may send troops to Ukraine, warns former alliance chief

Rasmussen said: “If Nato cannot agree on a clear path forward for Ukraine, there is a clear possibility that some countries individually might take action. We know that Poland is very engaged in providing concrete assistance to Ukraine. And I wouldn’t exclude the possibility that Poland would engage even stronger in this context on a national basis and be followed by the Baltic states, maybe including the possibility of troops on the ground.

A deadly gambit that leaves no opportunity for a peace agreement; a tragic miscalculation on the part of some people to think that there will not be a nuclear conflict. I don't know if we will have the opportunity to thank these dangerous fools for leading humanity on a journey of no return.

The psychological effects are already being felt, Nuclear Anxiety Amid the Russian-Ukrainian War

Guterres warns World 'one miscalculation away from nuclear annihilation', UN

We have been extraordinarily lucky so far. But luck is not a strategy.

In this case at least, European citizens have shown some common sense, although Borrel, the gardener, claims that "EU member countries should deploy warships to patrol the Taiwan Strait". Europeans want to remain neutral in possible US-China conflict, survey shows

Majorities of Europeans would want to remain neutral in a possible conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan

[Cyclops]

If it really didn't benefit either side, then the explanation it was not an intentional action becomes more plausible yes.

Haven't really heard much tbh about the offensives since the dam collapsed. Maybe telegram really is where all the latest news one.

Pretty hard to demolish a major piece of infrastructure, clearly charges were placed.

Whether the charges were detonated by Ukrainian shelling, deliberate detonation or a Russian officer losing their cool, it seems most likely Russia prepared this action.

On reflection it's almost certainly a major war crime.

[Alastor]

In other words, “We don't know who it was, but for sure it was the Russians."

That's how it goes yes. Mainstream media and politicians are so quick to point fingers "always" towards Russia it's just ridiculous.

More measured responses, waiting for evidence before calling it? Naaah. Why do that when Russia obviously did it? And I don't mean the dam thing, I mean whatever bad thing today's "it" is.

And for the polar opposite... we have Tucker Carlson:
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/st...03439146172419
Sigh.