View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

Voters
148. You may not vote on this poll
  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #5541
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Russia may not even hold the ground it stole last time the way things are going
    I dunno. I can't imagine Ukraine can do more than push to the Dnieper in the south w/o a rest and some serious aircraft and or AA upgrades. The north is fluid still... but again the closer you get to Russia and the Russia AA and Air Force seem to show a little bit. Winter might be interesting given Russia supply issues to the front. IF Ukraine gets a good supply of winter fighting gear and a steady supply of night vision thay may be able sustain a winter offensive against Putin's first rounds of mass round up fellows.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  2. #5542

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    https://www.newsweek.com/putins-sata...licans-1748094

    Vladimir Putin has accused the West of undermining "traditional values" in service to "Satanism," prompting some to compare the Russian president's remarks to rhetoric from MAGA Republicans.
    Putin said that "Western elites" were pushing a "radical denial of moral norms, religion and family" during a speech on Russia's claimed annexation of four regions of Ukraine on Friday. He said that residents of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia were becoming Russian citizens "forever" before setting his sights on the "challenge" of values held in the U.S. and allied countries.
    "The dictatorship of the Western elites is directed against all societies, including the peoples of the Western countries themselves," Putin said, according to a translation from Reuters. "This is a challenge to all. This is a complete denial of humanity, the overthrow of faith and traditional values. Indeed, the suppression of freedom itself has taken on the features of a religion: outright Satanism."

    The Russian president also spoke about the West's supposedly "insane" recognition of LGBTQ people during the speech, while echoing recent rhetoric from Republicans opposed to transgender rights.

    "Do we really want, here, in our country, in Russia, instead of 'mum' and 'dad,' to have 'parent No. 1,' 'parent No. 2,' 'No. 3'?" Putin said. "Have they gone completely insane? Do we really want ... it drilled into children in our schools ... that there are supposedly genders besides women and men, and [children to be] offered the chance to undergo sex change operations?"
    Like in the US, the kinds of people who fall for this type of right-wing propaganda don't really have principles and just want to see the 'other' get crushed. If Putin or Trump started talking about nationalizing all corporations because they're owned by globalists that hate Jesus, their supporters would fall right in line and cheer them on.

    For all his claims of moral superiority, it's becoming increasingly clear that Putin is barely holding back his pure seething narcissistic rage at being embarrassed in Ukraine.

  3. #5543
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    Neither Lapid... thinks that it's in Ukraine's interest to negotiate at this point.
    That is not what I hear from Lapid, unless he has changed his mind very recently. Hence my joke when I commented that Lapid recommends a negotiated peace.
    On March 7, Lapid said “The way to stop a war is to negotiate”, adding that Israel was in contact with both Moscow and Ukraine” Haaretz

    One week later, March 13, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Refuses Calls From Lapid over Israel’s position on Russia’s invasion

    Listening to Zelensky's repeated complaints over the months and now culminating with Zelensky saying he doesn't understand Israel, it is time to ask: is there any Israeli ruler who is truly liked by the Ukrainian government?
    In an interview with The Times of Israel, Sharansky, an Israeli politician who spent nine years in Soviet prisons, acknowledged that “there are genuine considerations of realpolitik” that Israel needs to take into account. But Zelensky, pampered by the west, refuses to accept the fact that Israel puts its own interests ahead of Ukrainian interests.
    But this is what servile Europe, unfortunately, refuses to do.
    ---
    About the war.

    A few days ago, in a TV interview while looking at the ruins of what had been her home, a Ukrainian woman exclaimed: "I only wish that the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine would sit down to talk and end this war! " Since the war started, we have heard the same statements from various Ukrainian civilians, those who directly suffer in their lives the impact of this war: not in the abstract, but on a daily basis.
    To speak of peace, to oppose war, is seen as a capitulation in the West. One can be ostracized, or insulted for advocating negotiations to end war, for preferring peace to continued killing and destruction. I have been reading that the “appeasers, pacifists or putinists” propose peace at the expense of other people's territory. But one could also reply that the "warlords" propose the continuation of war at the expense of other people's blood.

    Here in the west, there is a lot of talk about Moscow's propaganda - which obviously exists - and the disinformation that Russian citizens are victims of. But paradoxically, we see demonstrations against the war in Russia, which are filmed, and the images exported, and every day we see images of the 70,000 or more Russians who have already crossed the borders to escape mobilization. And we also see the "democratic" Finland closing the borders to them Finland to join European neighbours in shutting out Russian

    However, very little is said about the concerted disinformation that is served up to us here daily, which is not at all distinguishable from war propaganda and is very unbecoming of so-called "liberal" societies. Examples,

    -The Azovstal chemical complex, where 2,000 Ukrainian civilians were allegedly prevented by the Russians from escaping: it was being used as a shield by the Azov fighters.

    -The prison where the Russians had 2,000 Ukrainian prisoners and which was allegedly bombed by the Russians themselves, killing 80 prisoners, to supposedly erase traces of torture on them? neither claim could be independently verified. Kyiv and Moscow point fingers

    - The same about the Russian-occupied Zaporijia nuclear power plant, where, according to Zelensky, the Russians had fun attacking themselves.

    - the famous Amnesty International report that so outraged Zelensky and others, and which accused the Ukrainian Army of using civilian facilities as combat zones.

    - Or the Ukrainian grain that the Russians would not let out of the Black Sea ports, condemning the third world to starvation, although Ukraine was only responsible for a small part of the world's grain exports,
    GIEWS Country Brief: Ukraine: 1-August-2022 - ReliefWeb
    Total cereal exports in 2022/23 are tentatively forecast to be about 40 percent below the five-year average volume; exports of maize and wheat are forecast at 15 million and 10 million tonnes, respectively, the lowest levels in the last 10 years.
    All Moscow wanted was to make sure that the ships picking up the grain were not carrying weapons to Kiev. One wonders: of the ships that departed from Ukraine, how many of them went to the third world? Destinations of outbound vessels under the UN Black Sea

    (…) on Wednesday 7 September 2022, the Russian President stated that he intended to limit the destination of grain to certain countries, claiming that only two ships of the 87 ships that had departed carried 60,000 tonnes of products to poor countries. In Putin’s words “If we exclude Turkey as an intermediary country, then almost all the grain exported from Ukraine is sent not to the poorest developing countries, but to European Union countries “.

    Farm Europe analysis


    The total tonnage of grain and other foodstuffs exported from the three Ukrainian ports before the statement accounted for more than 2,171,936 metric tonnes
    The account for grain that was sent to least developed countries, according to the UNCTAD classification of least developed countries, was of a total of 125,840 metric tonnes of grain: Sudan received 65,340 metric tonnes of grain while Ethiopia and Yemen (reported under the unclear category because they passed through other intermediary destinations) received a total of 60,500 metric tonnes from the vessels Brave Commander and Karteria under the UN WFP.
    ---
    On one side, we have Zelensky, his ambition and vanity fueled by the deadly new American war toys, for whom even Crimea is no longer the limit. This is what is discussed by the intelligentsia of the Ukrainian regime. The deconstruction of Russia and reconstruction of a “post post-Russia space”: a risky but inevitable scenario

    On the other hand, we have Putin, upset by a humiliating military defeat ( right now Russia withdraw from Lyman a day after annexation) consummating a risky step: the annexation of the Donbass through a wartime referendum. Although he does no less than the hypocrite NATO has done in the past. (1)

    Until May, there were several occasions when it looked like peace might be near, and if we review the then statements of both Putin and Zelensky, neither of them ruled out opening negotiations. But it was then that the US Secretary of Defense's visit to Kiev changed everything: Lloyd Austin described to Zelensky the results of American "intelligence" analyses of Russia's military capabilities and explained to him that the US was ready to offer Ukraine a new radar system and a very modern Himars medium-range missile system capable of reversing the course of the war.
    At the same time, Austin himself took it upon himself to declare what the ultimate goal of the war was from then on: "to weaken Russia in such a way that it can never again repeat what it did in Ukraine." That is, to confront and defeat Russia through the interposition of Ukraine.
    And that also became Zelensky's goal, the goal of NATO, the goal of the West, the goal of Europe: war until Russia's total defeat. Everyone got the message, and so did Putin.

    But this has a price, and this price will be paid, as it is already being paid in Europe and Africa. The European citizens see their wages and pensions eaten up by inflation, their savings eaten up, the interest on their debts, public and private, rising, the extremists taking over the voters, while it seems that the important thing is not this.
    The poor people, who are not at all to blame for the war and just long for its end, are told that there is no good way out. Let them choose between eating or keeping warm. It is like the patient to whom the doctor says: do you want to die now, or do you want to die later? The patient asks: but doctor, is there no treatment? The doctor answers: “Yes, there is a treatment, but it is not in my hands”.

    Zelensky blamed Russia for the destruction of the two pipelines. But if you think about it, this Pavlovian reflex lacks justification. It would be totally irrational for Moscow to destroy not only a co-ownership in which it has invested 475 billion rubles, but, above all, it would be absurd for Russia to nullify its main instrument of pressure against EU sanctions.
    In a tweet, as I have already mentioned in my last post, R. Sikorski - former defense minister, former Polish prime minister, and EPP MEP - thanked the US for the damage caused to Russian pipelines.
    In another tweet, Sikorski explained that the “The failure of Nord Stream narrows Putin’s room for manoeuvre. If he wants to resume gas supplies to Europe, he will have to talk to the countries controlling the Brotherhood and Yamal pipelinesFormer minister's Nord Stream sabotage tweet causes uproar

    It’s true that the severe accusatory "thank you" to Biden only compromises Sikorsky. However, it also reveals how European demons are on the loose. Hatred of Germany and not just Russia, is now an integral part of official policy in Poland, as demonstrated by the renewed demand for compensation World War II losses. Poland asks Germany for war reparations of 1.3 trillion euros
    Hatred of Germany and hatred of the EU to which they belong,
    Poland slams EU chief over remarks on Italy's right-wing
    Poland calls von der Leyen's 'the tools' comment 'scandalous'
    “Is this the Europe we want? … That Eurocrats in Brussels dictate what the government should be?”
    On September 26, massive protests in Gera, eastern Germany. They demand an end to sanctions on Russia and the reopening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1574814809530535945
    In Gera, Altenburg and several eastern German states thousands march in eastern Germany to protest soaring

    On February 7, 2022, Joe Biden said that Nord Stream 2 would be finished if Russia invaded Ukraine. Now, NATO says attacks on its members’ infrastructure would be met with a collective response from the military alliance. NATO Formally Blames Sabotage for Nord Stream Pipeline

    But is Nordstream now a critical infrastructure for NATO? The NATO Secretary General doesn't know whether an infrastructure should be attacked and blown up, or whether it should be defended and preserved.

    Without a strategy and adrift, the coming months will tell how far down the path of European self-flagellation will have some room for mitigation. The European response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine was disproportionate, completely ignoring interests and weaknesses, bowing in uncritical servility to Biden. The Berlin coalition has at a stroke, destroyed the foundations of a German-led EU: security of energy supply; stability of the euro; and even some political maneuverability within NATO.

    Each passing day we are moving towards a situation where the possibility of a limited nuclear war in Europe is growing. And in the face of such enormity, we hear from Ursula, Borrell and Stoltenberg , the same mantra repeated mechanically, each passing day, in an hypnotic way, without any hesitation, without any doubt: “This is not the time to appease, but to continue the war until victory"- while the majority of the German people call for negotiations Majority wants negotiations on end of war

    (1) The Kosovo Precedent Is Still Haunting NATO | Cato Institute
    -
    Edit: Just a few hours go. According to “La Repubblica” the nuclear submarine Belgorod which went into operation last month, plunged into the Arctic seas. It is feared that the mission is to test, for the first time, the Poseidon missile, known as the weapon of the Apocalypse. The newspaper says that a NATO intelligence report has raised the alarm among the Allies.
    Si muove il sottomarino Belgorod. Nato in allarme:
    Last edited by Ludicus; October 02, 2022 at 10:39 AM.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
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    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  4. #5544
    Mithradates's Avatar Domesticus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    A few days ago, in a TV interview while looking at the ruins of what had been her home, a Ukrainian woman exclaimed: "I only wish that the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine would sit down to talk and end this war! " Since the war started, we have heard the same statements from various Ukrainian civilians, those who directly suffer in their lives the impact of this war: not in the abstract, but on a daily basis.
    To speak of peace, to oppose war, is seen as a capitulation in the West. One can be ostracized, or insulted for advocating negotiations to end war, for preferring peace to continued killing and destruction. I have been reading that the “appeasers, pacifists or putinists” propose peace at the expense of other people's territory. But one could also reply that the "warlords" propose the continuation of war at the expense of other people's blood.
    "Those who say that all wars end in compromise & Ukraine must negotiate peace with Putin.

    Putin IS the Hitler of the 21st century & wants to obliterate Ukraine.

    Ukraine can not compromise with a regime that does not even recognise her right to exist."




    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    -The Azovstal chemical complex, where 2,000 Ukrainian civilians were allegedly prevented by the Russians from escaping: it was being used as a shield by the Azov fighters.
    I call this a lie. Sure you can source it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    - the famous Amnesty International report that so outraged Zelensky and others, and which accused the Ukrainian Army of using civilian facilities as combat zones.
    People didnt say it wasnt true, they said (including me) it was stupid and unnecessary.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    All Moscow wanted was to make sure that the ships picking up the grain were not carrying weapons to Kiev.
    Aha, that was just an excuse. The entire western border of Ukraine is NATO land, they can get all the weapon shipments trough there safely.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Until May, there were several occasions when it looked like peace might be near, and if we review the then statements of both Putin and Zelensky, neither of them ruled out opening negotiations. But it was then that the US Secretary of Defense's visit to Kiev changed everything: Lloyd Austin described to Zelensky the results of American "intelligence" analyses of Russia's military capabilities and explained to him that the US was ready to offer Ukraine a new radar system and a very modern Himars medium-range missile system capable of reversing the course of the war.
    At the same time, Austin himself took it upon himself to declare what the ultimate goal of the war was from then on: "to weaken Russia in such a way that it can never again repeat what it did in Ukraine." That is, to confront and defeat Russia through the interposition of Ukraine.
    And that also became Zelensky's goal, the goal of NATO, the goal of the West, the goal of Europe: war until Russia's total defeat. Everyone got the message, and so did Putin.
    This is what you call win-win
    Russia's total defeat is not the goal, weakening it is.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Each passing day we are moving towards a situation where the possibility of a limited nuclear war in Europe is growing. And in the face of such enormity, we hear from Ursula, Borrell and Stoltenberg , the same mantra repeated mechanically, each passing day, in an hypnotic way, without any hesitation, without any doubt: “This is not the time to appease, but to continue the war until victory"- while the majority of the German people call for negotiations Majority wants negotiations on end of war
    Too bad Putin refuses to negotiate...

  5. #5545
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    A few days ago, in a TV interview while looking at the ruins of what had been her home, a Ukrainian woman exclaimed: "I only wish that the Presidents of Russia and Ukraine would sit down to talk and end this war! " Since the war started, we have heard the same statements from various Ukrainian civilians, those who directly suffer in their lives the impact of this war: not in the abstract, but on a daily basis.
    Really a sound bite from a single interview?

    the famous Amnesty International report that so outraged Zelensky and others, and which accused the Ukrainian Army of using civilian facilities as combat zones.
    Come on Ludicus the report was absurd how do you propose Ukraine defend its cities?

    Err on Grain. Ludicus you do realize its a global market the price distortions exist no matter where the grain goes. Also its a market driven by the future as well its just how much Ukraine does or does not export now its all how much it will produce going into next tear. All of that disruption is clearly the fault of the man who started the war from Moscow.

    You have done some nice contortions to follow Moscow talking points I applaud your flexibility.

    Here
    https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...eu-is-he-right
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...-nations-putin

    Grain is being processed for redistribution at Turkey for example and probably in Europe as well
    More than grain is being shipped (first Link)

    "In addition to the JCC shipments, commercial vessels leaving Ukraine have carried a range of food products including wheat, corn for animal feed, sunflower meal, soya beans, sunflower oil and sunflower seed.
    Food security experts have said many of these shipments are deliveries on existing contracts that were struck before Russia’s invasion, rather than new shipments that have been earmarked for Europe."

    For bulk oil shipments:

    https://totalconnection.com/liquid-b...-oil-shipping/

    The bulk oil is going to go where the storage and ability for reprocessing for redistribution is located (in some form that is not a taker just sitting in the port). The same likely holds true stuff like sunflower seeds that likely an ingredient in a processed food so from Europe could easily than shuffle off to Botswana. But your simplistic analysis is just playing games with the international food chain numbers - sorry.

    edit: And is there a bit of elitism creeping in or are going to tell me you do know what to do with a pile of bulk wheat grain and sunflower seeds? What processing and storage capacity does say Sudan have its ports.


    Well that is bravado Ludicus to site a rather twisted retelling of History by the Cato institute. Well really citing any by that collection of ideological hacks at all.

    "Serbia’s Kosovo province to international control" I believe they meant to say formerly autonomous province that under the 1974 constitution was part of the rotating presidency system - a status abrogated by Serbia unilaterally.

    "That transfer was made under a fig‐​leaf resolution the UN Security Council passed despite Moscow’s misgivings and reluctance"

    I believe what was level no what descriptors you add it was based on UN action and just the unilateral decisions of Moscow when you compare the Crimea or Donbas.

    "UN (predominantly NATO) “peacekeepers” moved in to enforce the alliance’s diktat—much as Russian “peacekeepers” have now deployed to Donetsk and Luhansk to enforce the Kremlin’s orders."

    False comparison.

    Also to artificial blandly ignore the organic push for first greater autonomy and independence in Kosovo well before UN?NATO peacekeepers ever arrived on the ground as early as the late 1980s to 1990.

    Also of course the author is quite willing to forget Russia actions to create the Transnistria which of course pre dated the events that supposedly haunt NATO.

    Zelensky blamed Russia for the destruction of the two pipelines. But if you think about it, this Pavlovian reflex lacks justification. It would be totally irrational for Moscow to destroy not only a co-ownership in which it has invested 475 billion rubles, but, above all, it would be absurd for Russia to nullify its main instrument of pressure against EU sanctions.
    Both links I posted provided perfectly rational reasons for Putin to blow the pipelines. The cost is clearly uniportant just as it clear for the cost of military hardware he is loosing in Ukraine.

    Edit: Just a few hours go. According to “La Repubblica” the nuclear submarine Belgorod which went into operation last month, plunged into the Arctic seas. It is feared that the mission is to test, for the first time, the Poseidon missile, known as the weapon of the Apocalypse. The newspaper says that a NATO intelligence report has raised the alarm among the Allies.
    Si muove il sottomarino Belgorod. Nato in allarme:
    You do realize that what Ballistic missile submarines do the go out to the remote deep ocean and hide or patrol every day there 4-5 US ones waiting about for a go order and with 3-4 more patrolling but not necessarily in optimal locations.

    You are really going to keep flogging a dead horse of campaign red meat oratory?

    Until May, there were several occasions when it looked like peace might be near, and if we review the then statements of both Putin and Zelensky, neither of them ruled out opening negotiations. But it was then that the US Secretary of Defense's visit to Kiev changed everything: Lloyd Austin described to Zelensky the results of American "intelligence" analyses of Russia's military capabilities and explained to him that the US was ready to offer Ukraine a new radar system and a very modern Himars medium-range missile system capable of reversing the course of the war.
    So I take it you did not read a translation of Putin's annexation day speech there was nothing to negotiate over.

    Listening to Zelensky's repeated complaints over the months and now culminating with Zelensky saying he doesn't understand Israel, it is time to ask: is there any Israeli ruler who is truly liked by the Ukrainian government?
    In an interview with The Times of Israel, Sharansky, an Israeli politician who spent nine years in Soviet prisons, acknowledged that “there are genuine considerations of realpolitik” that Israel needs to take into account. But Zelensky, pampered by the west, refuses to accept the fact that Israel puts its own interests ahead of Ukrainian interests.
    But this is what servile Europe, unfortunately, refuses to do.
    Easy to say when the US treats you like the 51st state and not a client or useful ally.
    Last edited by conon394; October 02, 2022 at 11:52 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  6. #5546

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    That is not what I hear from Lapid, unless he has changed his mind very recently. Hence my joke when I commented that Lapid recommends a negotiated peace.
    On March 7, Lapid said “The way to stop a war is to negotiate”, adding that Israel was in contact with both Moscow and Ukraine” Haaretz
    The situation in March was quite different than it is today, but you probably won't hear any upper echelon Israeli politician explicitly say what they think on the topic, for the same reason a person held hostage at gun point is unlikely to deliberately anger their captor. A large segment of the Israeli population has personal connections in Russia, but the good relations between the governments are far from warm, and are in fact maintained by Israel largely because Russia is seen as a serious threat. Russia is a threat as a sponsor of Israel's most dangerous enemies, but more importantly, they regularly coerce Israel by deliberately endangering civilian flights into the country and by threatening to harm their own Jewish citizens. This latter factor is most significant, because it will remain even as Russia loses its capability to project power in the Middle East. When the Putin government felt Israel wasn't being sufficiently deferential over the conflict, they initiated proceedings to outlaw the Jewish Agency.

    The Israeli media and the Israeli population appear to be entirely sympathetic to the Ukrainians in this conflict, so it’s unlikely that Israel’s upper level elected officials just happen to be the only outliers in that regard.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    Listening to Zelensky's repeated complaints over the months and now culminating with Zelensky saying he doesn't understand Israel, it is time to ask: is there any Israeli ruler who is truly liked by the Ukrainian government?
    In an interview with The Times of Israel, Sharansky, an Israeli politician who spent nine years in Soviet prisons, acknowledged that “there are genuine considerations of realpolitik” that Israel needs to take into account. But Zelensky, pampered by the west, refuses to accept the fact that Israel puts its own interests ahead of Ukrainian interests.
    But this is what servile Europe, unfortunately, refuses to do.
    Zelensky is looking out for his country's interests. I'm sure he knows exactly why Israel is being so non-committal, but he wants the iron dome, and since he knows the sympathies of the Israeli media and the Israeli population, he thinks he can shame the Israeli leadership into helping more, or at least he thinks it's worth a try.
    Quote Originally Posted by Enros View Post
    You don't seem to be familiar with how the burden of proof works in when discussing social justice. It's not like science where it lies on the one making the claim. If someone claims to be oppressed, they don't have to prove it.


  7. #5547
    Vanoi's Avatar Dux Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by sumskilz View Post
    The situation in March was quite different than it is today, but you probably won't hear any upper echelon Israeli politician explicitly say what they think on the topic, for the same reason a person held hostage at gun point is unlikely to deliberately anger their captor. A large segment of the Israeli population has personal connections in Russia, but the good relations between the governments are far from warm, and are in fact maintained by Israel largely because Russia is seen as a serious threat. Russia is a threat as a sponsor of Israel's most dangerous enemies, but more importantly, they regularly coerce Israel by deliberately endangering civilian flights into the country and by threatening to harm their own Jewish citizens. This latter factor is most significant, because it will remain even as Russia loses its capability to project power in the Middle East. When the Putin government felt Israel wasn't being sufficiently deferential over the conflict, they initiated proceedings to outlaw the Jewish Agency.

    The Israeli media and the Israeli population appear to be entirely sympathetic to the Ukrainians in this conflict, so it’s unlikely that Israel’s upper level elected officials just happen to be the only outliers in that regard.

    Zelensky is looking out for his country's interests. I'm sure he knows exactly why Israel is being so non-committal, but he wants the iron dome, and since he knows the sympathies of the Israeli media and the Israeli population, he thinks he can shame the Israeli leadership into helping more, or at least he thinks it's worth a try.
    You'd think with Iranian drones appearing in Ukraine Israel might might want to get more involved. At this point it's looking like cooperation is only going to increase between Russia and Iran. Israel might just be forced to take a side here instead of remaining mostly neutral.

  8. #5548
    reavertm's Avatar Biarchus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Ludicus.
    As a Pole, let me offer some explanation on what you observed wrt reparations, anti-EU sentiments etc.
    It is not position that nation represents.

    Elections are coming next year in Poland, campaign has started.
    Every time elections are coming, every time, every time, current ruling populist right wing catholic nationalist conservative party (differing from pro-Russian neo-nazis from Confederacy party only by social programs and being anti-Russian) brings out their standard topics to "public discourse" to consolidate their core base, in random order
    - homophobic campaigns and "protecting Polish catholic family"
    - anti-EU campaigns of how those regulations (in ex that prevent violation of law on higher level) "undermine" sovereignty
    - Smoleńsk presidential airplane crash and how they need to be chosen to "find the truth" (that it were Russians). But hiding Antoni Macierewicz to the closet just before elections. This time they knighted him so perhaps change of strategy and want to go full conspiracy theory in the me media. So far they just allowed him to syphon public money for his phony investigation committee but were distancing themselves from his loony talk
    - war reparations from Germany
    Overarching theme in all those is according to PiS, arch-enemy and devil incarnate, Donald Tusk. De facto opposition leader, former prime minister, former EU president.

    Those are all standard topics - that for someone who pays attention is clear - are being cycled with elections cycle in Poland (five years) since PiS took over.
    In short, move along, nothing to see here.
    Last edited by reavertm; October 03, 2022 at 09:56 PM.

  9. #5549

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Well that is bravado Ludicus to site a rather twisted retelling of History by the Cato institute. Well really citing any by that collection of ideological hacks at all.

    "Serbia’s Kosovo province to international control" I believe they meant to say formerly autonomous province that under the 1974 constitution was part of the rotating presidency system - a status abrogated by Serbia unilaterally.

    "That transfer was made under a fig‐​leaf resolution the UN Security Council passed despite Moscow’s misgivings and reluctance"

    I believe what was level no what descriptors you add it was based on UN action and just the unilateral decisions of Moscow when you compare the Crimea or Donbas.

    "UN (predominantly NATO) “peacekeepers” moved in to enforce the alliance’s diktat—much as Russian “peacekeepers” have now deployed to Donetsk and Luhansk to enforce the Kremlin’s orders."

    False comparison.

    Also to artificial blandly ignore the organic push for first greater autonomy and independence in Kosovo well before UN?NATO peacekeepers ever arrived on the ground as early as the late 1980s to 1990.

    Also of course the author is quite willing to forget Russia actions to create the Transnistria which of course pre dated the events that supposedly haunt NATO.
    I think that bringing up the Kosovo case in relation to Putin's current actions is stretching an analogy far past the breaking point. The cases of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria all have at least some basis for invoking such a precedent, since a local basis for separatism did exist, as did circumstances similar to those in Yugoslavia. Even Crimea could theoretically have been defended on such grounds, if only because of the ethnic composition of the population and the fact that the Crimean parliament made two pushes for separation during the 1990s, both largely supported by the population (although this line of argument would have been easier to defend with an independent or quasi-independent Crimean state rather than immediate annexation into Russia*). Although if this line of argument were pursued to its logical conclusion it would have awkward implications for Russia's control over the ethnic minority republics (at least the ones without majority Russian population). However, I think it's pretty clear that consistency in international affairs is an inherent contradiction in terms.

    *Which raises an interesting question. Although it's kind of academic at this point given the circumstances, is there any reason to believe that support would exist for a completely independent Crimean state (i.e. independent of both Russia and Ukraine?) As I understand it, a decent proportion of the population in Crimea in the past have given their ethnic identity simply as 'Crimean'.

  10. #5550
    Holger Danske's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Papay View Post
    Hope so. Because if Russia manages to send another 200-300.000 soldiers in Ukraine this will be the end of it
    For Russia, certain. For Ukraine, how so?

    We have no idea what the actual figure is. By the looks of it they are trying to mobilize everyone they can so I suspect it's higher than 300k. This leaves a plethora of questions: How are they going to equip and train this mass into a coherent fighting force after they threw away a lot of the people meant for such a task. How are they going to move them to where they are needed (beyond rail) and more crucially feed them? They couldn't manage to operate the much smaller initial invasion force. With winter approaching we have reports of Russia "misplacing" millions of winter uniforms. Even if Russia somehow can manage all the above this alone could lead to a military disaster comparable to early stages of Barbarossa.

    Then are the economically consequences of mobilization, on top of the severe and mounting sanctions. Any type of Russian victory in Ukraine will be pyrric, at best.
    Last edited by Holger Danske; October 03, 2022 at 08:18 AM.

  11. #5551

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I wasn't aware of this but apparently Turkey was building corvettes for Ukraine. Hetman Ivan Mazepa corvette was launched yesterdeay:



    Turkish Shipyard Launches Ukraine’s 1st MILGEM Corvette
    Turkish RMK Marine Shipyard launched Ukraine's first MILGEM-class corvette, Hetman Ivan Mazepa (F-211), during a ceremony in Istanbul on October 2, 2022.
    'Hetman Ivan Mazepa' is the first of two Ada-class corvettes on order for the Ukrainian Navy

    Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov and First Lady Olena Zelensky announced the launching ceremony of Hetman Ivan Mazepa corvette on their Twitter accounts. According to social media posts, the Turkish defense minister attended the ceremony as the highest Turkish official. President of Defence Industry Agency (SSB) Professor İsmail Demir and STM General Manager Özgür Güleryüz also attended the launching ceremony.

    Mrs. Zelensky was the godmother of Hetman Ivan Mazepa (F-211) and launched the future corvette. The First Lady shared photos from the ceremony and posted tweets in English and Ukrainian.
    The Armenian Issue

  12. #5552
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Well were I Ukraine I keep it in a Turkish port for now.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  13. #5553

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Well were I Ukraine I keep it in a Turkish port for now.
    Currently the Russian Black Sea navy can't get out of its Crimea cover. Waters near Odessa belong to the Ukrainian completely.
    The Armenian Issue

  14. #5554
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    *Which raises an interesting question. Although it's kind of academic at this point given the circumstances, is there any reason to believe that support would exist for a completely independent Crimean state (i.e. independent of both Russia and Ukraine?) As I understand it, a decent proportion of the population in Crimea in the past have given their ethnic identity simply as 'Crimean'.
    Theoretically its an ideal that might maybe play into negotiations. But I thinking the annexation went east for the Russian pop there a lot those who identified as Ukraine left and the Russian have make like suck enough that so have the Tartars. Given there was not long term low level fight like the Donbas and that Putin dumped a lot money into his first easy win pretty sure the overwhelming actual vote now would be to be and stay part of Russia. I dunno they also seem not have until maybe now conscription or mobilization to fight in the larger war. So I guess the independent neutral thing turns on the need fro Russian subsides vs hey wait we did want to fight. Water is an issue if Ukraine gets back control of the irrigation system than Crimea is dependent of expensive to Russian help to be viable.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  15. #5555
    AqD's Avatar 。◕‿◕。
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Holger Danske View Post
    Then are the economically consequences of mobilization, on top of the severe and mounting sanctions. Any type of Russian victory in Ukraine will be pyrrhic, at best.
    Pyrrhic victory would not be a loss to Putin as Russian soldiers are disposable to him.

    Sanctions are not going to stop after their defeat or victory. Oil profits are not going to be affected in the long run since it'd just change buyers and sellers. Victory or not the future of Russia has already been decided.

    But given the recent performance, it looks like their command structure has collapsed and there is no one left to train soldiers. Why worry about 300,000 or one million of sobbing slaves forced to war? One million bullets are not much.

    Why aren't we talking about nukes? It's a very viable option for Putin to use tactical nukes, to force NATO's hand and give himself a perfect excuse to end the war with his crown intact, even at the cost of hundreds of thousands of Russian lives and the entire fleet. In fact he does not have any other option left.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ludicus View Post
    while the majority of the German people call for negotiations Majority wants negotiations on end of war
    That's one month ago where both sides were stuck. Now Ukraine is winning. Why negotiate now when we can do it later with much better terms? Heavily discounted Russian gas for a start! (not that we'd buy, but it's good to kill the global price)
    Last edited by AqD; October 03, 2022 at 02:22 PM.

  16. #5556
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by PointOfViewGun View Post
    Currently the Russian Black Sea navy can't get out of its Crimea cover. Waters near Odessa belong to the Ukrainian completely.
    Possibly but Russia still has subs and no sense giving them an isolated target. Better really to rebuild safely and just have the ships waiting for a later day.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  17. #5557

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Possibly but Russia still has subs and no sense giving them an isolated target. Better really to rebuild safely and just have the ships waiting for a later day.
    The Ada-class corvettes are actually anti-submarine corvettes.
    The Armenian Issue

  18. #5558
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    That is well and good vs what 6-7 active subs that would love payback for Slava on it lonely run home to Odessa? Sans air cover? I suppose it could creep up the coast in NATO waters but still best I think to consider it the beginning of future fleet. In any case I don't believe it is fitted out yet just floating. Its at that delightful stage where a modern military can say see look we built the ship for x dollars... But we buried the part where none the weapons and sensors and stuff are bolted on but buried that cost in a different budget item elsewhere that we are not counting as acquisitions.
    Last edited by conon394; October 03, 2022 at 03:29 PM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  19. #5559

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    That is well and good vs what 6-7 active subs that would love payback for Slava on it lonely run home to Odessa? Sans air cover? I suppose it could creep up the coast in NATO waters but still best I think to consider it the beginning of future fleet. In any case I don't believe it is fitted out yet just floating. Its at that delightful stage where a modern military can say see look we built the ship for x dollars... But we buried the part where none the weapons and sensors and stuff are bolted on but buried that cost in a different budget item elsewhere that we are not counting as acquisitions.
    Russian Black Sea fleet has 6 submarines. They are mostly used by Russia as missile platforms to send cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets. Because they fear that they can be hit during their stay in ports near Crimea, Russia sent out its submarines to the sea to keep them concealed. They're likely not operating in clusters.

    Two ships was ordered in 2020. First ship would normally be sent to a Ukrainian shipyard unfinished by 2023. However, the Turkish shipyard continued production and actually completed the ship earlier in light of the Russian invasion. The Turkish defense minister alongside Zelensky's wife, as well as the ship's new Ukrainian captain and crew, launched the ship yesterday. The ship, however, likely doesn't have all the systems installed yet. Hence, they're likely playing it as a morale boost though depending on how long the invasion goes on it might actually become fully operational.

    The Armenian Issue

  20. #5560

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Theoretically its an ideal that might maybe play into negotiations. But I thinking the annexation went east for the Russian pop there a lot those who identified as Ukraine left and the Russian have make like suck enough that so have the Tartars. Given there was not long term low level fight like the Donbas and that Putin dumped a lot money into his first easy win pretty sure the overwhelming actual vote now would be to be and stay part of Russia. I dunno they also seem not have until maybe now conscription or mobilization to fight in the larger war. So I guess the independent neutral thing turns on the need fro Russian subsides vs hey wait we did want to fight. Water is an issue if Ukraine gets back control of the irrigation system than Crimea is dependent of expensive to Russian help to be viable.
    Elon Musk recently got pilloried on Twitter for this. I think he goofed on the details, since a more practical argument would have focused on Crimea and the issues of a) the demographics (which have been consistently majority ethnic Russian since 1959) and b) the fact that there is an actual precedent for an organic separation movement. Neither of these arguments apply on the mainland where the population is overwhelmingly ethnic Ukrainian, even if they speak Russian (c.f. most Irish nationalists in N. Ireland are Anglophones). One could argue that an obvious mistake that the Russians made planning this in the first place is confusing 'language' and 'ethnic identity'; the two do not always overlap.

    Considering some of the responses though, I suspect that if Ukraine does manage to retake Crimea by force, then the West (US/EU/NATO) will be faced with the question of whether or not they are fine with ethnic cleansing/genocide as long as it's committed by the side they support. Unfortunately, given prior precedent (e.g. the Yugoslav Wars and the German expulsions) I'm inclined to believe that the answer is yes.

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