Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[PointOfViewGun]

You simps have selective memories. So REMEMBER that when war ends w Ukraine's defeat. I will be back to tell you specifically @Cyclops "I TOLD YOU SO."
Otherwise no more post (I've said all I have to say), from me in this tread till after Ukraine's defeat. See you then...

We don't need to wait till then to know your claims have been proven to be false left and right. You have made that "I told you so" claim for a number of points and all turned about not what you told so. The latest iteration is you claiming about a week ago how the massive Russian offensive finally started that didn't really materialize.

[Peresvet]

But it is going according to plan for the Russians. This war is akin to Germany loosing at Stalingrad and then following it up w a loss at Battle of Kursk in 1943. At this point Germany lost the war; yet they fought for almost 2 more years trying to prevent the inevitable but at what cost? (throwing children, women and old men to the meat grinder).
Sure the Ukranians can emulate the Germans of WW2 by fighting for a few more years but the cost of human life (ukranian mostly) and sufferings will be tremendous imo.


You simps have selective memories. So REMEMBER that when war ends w Ukraine's defeat. I will be back to tell you specifically @Cyclops "I TOLD YOU SO."
Otherwise no more post (I've said all I have to say), from me in this tread till after Ukraine's defeat. See you then...

Everything does not go according to Russia's plan, since Russia wanted a quick victory, but this did not work out, the oan was drawn into a protracted war with heavy losses and gradual degradation of the economy, the migration of the active population from mobilization, the weakening of the army, as a result of the loss of equipment, missiles, personnel . Ukraine also suffers huge losses, but Western countries will always support and help it. The war will go on until the change of regime in one of the countries. And I'm not sure that it will be Ukraine. But I am against any war, so I think that a reasonable person needs to leave the warring countries, both from Russia and from Ukraine. No need to sacrifice your life for the interests of the ruling class.

[Coughdrop addict]

You simps have selective memories. So REMEMBER that when war ends w Ukraine's defeat. I will be back to tell you specifically @Cyclops "I TOLD YOU SO."
Otherwise no more post (I've said all I have to say), from me in this tread till after Ukraine's defeat. See you then...

Running away sobbing when faced with difficulty may be seen as very brave and manly in Russia, but less so to us 'woke' westerners.

[Morifea]

@Coughdrop: They show how strong and manly they are by raping and killing civilians and slabbing their wifes at home.

[Peresvet]

Since February 2022, less than 9% of companies from the EU and G7 countries have left Russia, according to experts (https://www.rbc.ru/business/20/01/20...dium=messenger).


At the beginning of 2022, 2,405 subsidiaries of 1,404 firms from the EU and the G7 operated in Russia. By the end of November 2022, 120 Western firms, or about 8.5%, had sold at least one subsidiary in the country, according to a report by economists from the Swiss IMD Institute and the University of St. Gallen Niccolo Pisani and Simon Evenett.


According to economists, less than 18% of subsidiaries from the United States left Russia, 15% from Japan and only 8.3% from the European Union. Of those who remained in the country, 19.5% are from German firms, 12.4% from the United States.

Western business continues to operate in the aggressor country. It's just not clear to me why this is happening. Did they continue to trade with Hitler during the Second World War? We need a complete ban on trade with Putin's Russia. Until this happens, the bloody aggression against Ukraine will continue.

[Cyclops]

I have Stario on ignore, but its clear from to quotes I have upset him. Sorry for that.

I hope you are safe and there's good news for Russia soon.

The best news for everyone would be an end to this criminal invasion, with Russians back in Russia and Ukraine controlling Ukraine. I hate that Russians are being chased out of Russia by Putins dishonest mobilisation ukase.

Putins weakness has made the US position stronger. I am a loyal ally of the US but its not good for one power to be so dominant. Putin is wringing his own neck here. Claiming he is monents away from victory is loyal, but saying he is monents away from victory repeatedly for a year as he gets his arse repeatedly kicked looks stupid.

Russia could still win it is true. In February 2022 I thought they would win inside a week. Bit by bit everyone has had their mind changed.

What could change even the staunchest Russian mind? Putins resignation? Poles in Minsk? Ukranians in Moscow? Or is victory moments away no matter what?

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Or is victory moments away no matter what?

As German i can say, that as long as they are "Wunderwaffen" to come the "Endsieg" is always near.

In the last months it were the Flying Mopeds of Teheran. Now it are the 14 T 14 Armata, which are sent to Ukraine.

[conon394]

But it is going according to plan for the Russians. This war is akin to Germany loosing at Stalingrad and then following it up w a loss at Battle of Kursk in 1943. At this point Germany lost the war; yet they fought for almost 2 more years trying to prevent the inevitable but at what cost? (throwing children, women and old men to the meat grinder).
Sure the Ukranians can emulate the Germans of WW2 by fighting for a few more years but the cost of human life (ukranian mostly) and sufferings will be tremendous imo.

WW2 is not really a good model the current war.

At this point Russia has achieved no comparable success to Stalingrad nor has Ukraine attempted any offensive action into Russia. Certainly the Ukraine as no overextended position deep on a hostile country. Certainly the way the Kherson situation ended proves the Ukrainian leadership was not so intent a victory that it likely did not have the ability to carry without great cost a command not so reckless as Germany was with its manpower.

----------------

Now it are the 14 T 14 Armata, which are sent to Ukraine.

Probably PR. Not enough to be decisive. And too many to potentially have one captured or destroyed. Russian domestic and foreign PR spin on the T-14 has been over the top. A mission kill even one that say the US would be happy with for an M1 - tank hull recovered and crew walks away would look kind of bad. Also I might be conservative but I got to wonder with only three crew and all of them buttoned up in the hull there seems to be a really big risk of loosing your situational awareness to even incoming fire that the tank can shrug off say just MG fire and RPG type stuff and than not notice a MBT waiting to finish off. Also thee guys is one less guy to keep the tank running.

[Ludicus]

The Pentagon has officially just announced a new $2.5 billion Ukraine security package, including 90 Stryker armored vehicles and 59 more Bradley fighting vehicles. No M1 Abrams tanks.
Poland is threatening to send Leopard 2's to Ukraine, even if it does not have German authorization.Germany has previously stated that a shipment without German authorization is illegal.

Today at the Ramstein meeting (in this so far conventional war between NATO and Russia) it should be clarified whether Germany can convince the US to send the Abrams in order to invoke a broad alliance. The US, for various reasons, says it is not currently considering sending them. It is also possible that the US will pressure Germany to authorize the delivery of Europe's existing Leopard 2s to Ukraine (about 2,000) with only a European and British alliance; or whether there will be a token delivery of Abrams to pave the way for the delivery of Leopard 2s (to Ukraine) from the European countries with Berlin's blessing.

In Germany, polls show a split, with a slight majority against sending Leopard 2(43%) to Ukraine, and a minority in favor, (39%) according to a YouGov poll (16% no opinion), or 46% against and 42% in favor in another from ZDF. The pressure to send the tanks is greater outside Germany. For many Germans, a careful weighing of the risks is the right approach. What lies behind the difficulty in acting is that Germany wants to avoid being responsible for a new world war.

German military historian Ralf Raths has tried to dampen enthusiasm about the Leopard 2s' qualities: he points out that they have never been used in such a war (unlike the Abrams); if they are sent to Ukraine, many of them will be destroyed, he says. Raths thinks that supplying Leopard 2s to Ukraine, if it happens, will not be a game-changer in the war.
He says,

The Leopard 2 was built for the Cold War, not for the Ukraine War. The Canadians and Turks only used it in Afghanistan and Syria respectively. Unlike the Abrams, the Leopard 2 has never been in a real war. There is a psychological problem that we are not yet prepared for. These highly acclaimed vehicles can be destroyed in Ukraine. That will happen. We haven’t been properly sensitized to the fact that this “leopard” is not an invulnerable game changer.

The impact it will have depends on the size of the shipments. Battle tank "Leopard 2": "Sledgehammer, but no game changer"

Edit. Is there ever such a thing as good propaganda? read the full story.
Ukraine Tried to Coerce Danish Reporter to Make Propaganda

Ukraine’s intelligence service asked a respected Danish journalist to prove she was not a pro-Russia propagandist by making pro-Ukraine propaganda...
Last month, Queen Margrethe II of Denmark presented Kimer with the prestigious Ebbe Munck Prize. Kimer is also a finalist for the 2022 Cavling Prize, Danish journalism’s equivalent of a Pulitzer, for her coverage of the Russian war on Ukraine.

[conon394]

Germany has previously stated that a shipment without German authorization is illegal.

German leadership has pushed to the point of nobody caring.

What lies behind the difficulty in acting is that Germany wants to avoid being responsible for a new world war.

Err how do leopards create a new world war?

German military historian Ralf Raths has tried to dampen enthusiasm about the Leopard 2s' qualities: he points out that they have never been used in such a war (unlike the Abrams); if they are sent to Ukraine, many of them will be destroyed, he says. Raths thinks that supplying Leopard 2s to Ukraine, if it happens, will not be a game-changer in the war.
He says,

Turkey by all accounts deployed their poorly in Syria. In any case the argument is rubbish. Yes tanks will get destroyed but but last I wondered over to Oryx the Tanks in the fight are all the product of the cold war and Ukraine needs more tanks(*). The Leopards are close by and available in numbers and so it the repair and supply chain. They game changer is not the Tanks in and of themselves but Ukraine having 2 or 3 more mechanized brigades.

"There is a psychological problem that we are not yet prepared for. These highly acclaimed vehicles can be destroyed in Ukraine. That will happen. We haven’t been properly sensitized to the fact that this “leopard” is not an invulnerable game changer."

Really The Ukraine is waiting on German feelings? That is absurd as an explanation.

* notice how T62s are in the mix of captured or destroyed Russian tanks - come on even an old Leopard that runs is better than that.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

* notice how T62s are in the mix of captured or destroyed Russian tanks - come on even an old Leopard that runs is better than that.

Funny that you mention it.

Indeed german Arms industry is offering 100 old Leopard I and 10-99(?) Challenger I too:

German industry offers up to 100 main battle tanks for Ukraine
This is especially true when you include discarded equipment that is stockpiled by the industry. As the Handelsblatt learned from industry circles, in addition to the modern Leopard 2, Leopard 1 and the British model Challenger 1 could also be refurbished and handed over to Kyiv. This would have the advantage that the Bundeswehr would not have to give up any tanks from its own scarce stock.

The Flensburg armaments company FFG also has Leopard 1 in stock and could retrofit it for the Ukraine. It is unclear to what extent Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) - the main manufacturer of the Leopard 2 - could participate in a possible delivery. The company has so far remained silent on the matter.

Ukraine-Krieg: Deutsche Industrie bietet mehr als 100 Kampfpanzer für Ukraine an (handelsblatt.com)

Fitting to this news is that the new defence minister Pistorius made the statement that:

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius says an order has been placed to have Leopard tank stocks checked by the armed forces and industry. This involves the different types of tanks, i.e. both the Leopard 2 tank and the older Leopard 1. The test would mean that a possible delivery would be ready for use immediately, according to Pistorius.

Further:

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announces delivery of more weapons including:


40 Marder armored personnel carriers
7 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks
more Iris-T SLM guided missiles
1 Iris-T SLM air defense system in the spring


The "spring package" includes deliveries worth more than one billion euros, said Pistorius. Germany's investments thus rose to more than 3.3 billion euros.

Scholz is a man, which won't made quick decisions, he take his time, but when he made them. He execute them immediately.

The provisionally LNG Terminals are ready, Germany has enough NG and LNGs reserves for this Winter.

This economical war Putun has already lost. Germany is not broken down.

Finally:

Has Chancellor Scholz made the supply of main battle tanks dependent on the USA? Government spokesman Hebestreit now says: There was "never a time" such a connection.

For days there has been speculation that Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) only wants to send Leopard battle tanks to Ukraine if the USA also delivers its Abrams battle tanks. Federal Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) had said: He was not aware of such a link.

Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit made it clear at the federal press conference:

There has never been a tie or requirement that one must be done in order for the other to be done.
Steffen Hebestreit, government spokesman

Several media had reported that Chancellor Olaf Scholz had linked the delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to the willingness of the USA to deliver Abrams main battle tanks to Ukraine.

Hebestreit said that the aim was to continue to coordinate aid for Ukraine closely with the allies. It was only two weeks ago that the United States and Germany announced that they would jointly deliver Marder tanks and Patriot missiles.

"I find it difficult to imagine a German chancellor dictating any conditions to an American president." Both countries acted "very uniformly".

No request from Poland

Why didn't the federal government clear up the misunderstanding earlier? Mainly because many allies and also Ukraine had expressed their incomprehension about Scholz's hesitation?

Poland had announced that in case of doubt it would deliver Leopard tanks to Ukraine even without a German export license. According to Hebestreit, however, there has been no official request from the Polish government so far.



Kampfanzer-Deal mit USA? "Gab es zu keinem Zeitpunkt" - ZDFheute

Honestly i don't believe, what the PIS government is claiming.

There is a election this year in Poland and anti-german policy sells as patriotic. Like the official polnish note at the German Government to pay 1,3 billions € Repararions for WW II.

[Coughdrop addict]

What could change even the staunchest Russian mind? Putins resignation? Poles in Minsk? Ukranians in Moscow? Or is victory moments away no matter what?

In most cases true believers can't be argued with, as they've put themselves in the unassailable position of assuming that any evidence contrary to their beliefs was faked by (insert boogeyman). This makes them effectively immune to persuasion, logic, argument, and even the evidence of their eyes and ears.

Case in point, we still have people in my country who think Trump really won the election and is going to swoop in at the head of the military to arrest and execute all Democrats and anyone else they hate any day now.

[Kyriakos]

As Ludicus said, if LeoII are sent to Ukraine, many will be destroyed. But this isn't only an issue about "being of the view LeoII is a game-changer", because it isn't; it's just a tank and tanks don't win current wars by themselves. It's by far more an issue with the market price of the LeoII falling rapidly once they get to be routinely obliterated by (relative to them) cheaper offensive weapons. Which is also why Germany tries to tie it to US also sending its market-valued tank, so that at least the Leo won't collapse to it in sales.

[conon394]

As Ludicus said, if LeoII are sent to Ukraine, many will be destroyed. But this isn't only an issue about "being of the view LeoII is a game-changer", because it isn't; it's just a tank and tanks don't win current wars by themselves. It's by far more an issue with the market price of the LeoII falling rapidly once they get to be routinely obliterated by (relative to them) cheaper offensive weapons. Which is also why Germany tries to tie it to US also sending its market-valued tank, so that at least the Leo won't collapse to it in sales.

Some getting destroyed and routinely obliterated are really two different things. Not sure Germany needs to worry about market price. Last I checked the inept operation of M1s by the Iraqi army resulting in mission kills and captures of M1s had zero impact on how the tank is valued in the market. Its also not not Russia is solidifying its credibility for sales right now. Also if used well so some Leo's will get knocked out of action. That is part of their job. It is good PR if the surviving crew is than interviewed on TV unlike the dead sods in a pop top T90

[Kyriakos]

You never want to be in a position to sell something worth 20 times as much as the thing which killed it in actual battle ^^
In other words, it's not within realism to think this isn't Germany's main issue with sending its own market valued tank when its main antagonist won't be there.

[Peresvet]

German military historian Ralf Raths has tried to dampen enthusiasm about the Leopard 2s' qualities: he points out that they have never been used in such a war (unlike the Abrams); if they are sent to Ukraine, many of them will be destroyed, he says. Raths thinks that supplying Leopard 2s to Ukraine, if it happens, will not be a game-changer in the war.

Since the beginning of the invasion in Ukraine, Russia has already lost at least 1,500 tanks, calculated the Oryx analytical project, which collects information about the military losses of the parties through photographs and videos. 859 tanks were destroyed, 64 were damaged, 56 were abandoned, and 521 tanks were captured by Ukrainian forces, writes Oryx. In total, since the beginning of the war, Russia, according to Oryx, has lost at least 8023 units of military equipment (4914 destroyed, 198 damaged, 300 abandoned, 2611 captured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Oryx estimates the losses of Ukraine during this time at 2287 units of military equipment (1371 destroyed, 94 damaged, 60 abandoned, 761 captured).
The list includes only equipment, the loss of which is confirmed by photo and video materials in the public domain, and the actual amount of destroyed equipment is much higher, Oryx analysts emphasize.

even if Ukraine will not receive abrams and leopards, she will capture so many tanks from the Russians that it will be quite enough to advance to the borders with Russia

[Kyriakos]

Russian tanks aren't antagonistic to LeoII in the markets they are sold in. But LeoII and Abraams are in the same markets, and killed LeoII's will drive their price down.
I doubt anyone expects the german government to spell it out (we care more about our mil industry than Ukraine), but it's interesting that it's not identified as the active meaning of "LeoII have never been used in such a war, many of them will be destroyed"; no one cares if a few tanks are destroyed, but the military industry certainly cares if their sales are destroyed.

[conon394]

You never want to be in a position to sell something worth 20 times as much as the thing which killed it in actual battle ^^
In other words, it's not within realism to think this isn't Germany's main issue with sending its own market valued tank when its main antagonist won't be there.

To reiterate the poor use of the M1 by Iraq did not affect the perception of the M1. The Leopard is still held in high esteem even after Turkey kind of did the same that is leave them sitting alone in Syria and ended up with poor results. Merkavas even with the Trophy (*) were mission kills in Lebanon. No tank is some invulnerable super weapon not a Tiger in WW2 and contra Russian propaganda not the T14. I don't find this argument credible. Leopards are a significant improvement over the Tanks the Ukraine has now and critically a vast improvement in crew survivability - no pop top feature. Provided now in volume they are as you say not a magic weapon but again critically part of a path to getting Ukraine 2 or 3 new armored brigades now while the war is static with a very short logistical tail just back to Poland/Germany.

* strike that i believe they were pre trophy deployment but still amount to mission kills only.

[PointOfViewGun]

As Ludicus said, if LeoII are sent to Ukraine, many will be destroyed. But this isn't only an issue about "being of the view LeoII is a game-changer", because it isn't; it's just a tank and tanks don't win current wars by themselves. It's by far more an issue with the market price of the LeoII falling rapidly once they get to be routinely obliterated by (relative to them) cheaper offensive weapons. Which is also why Germany tries to tie it to US also sending its market-valued tank, so that at least the Leo won't collapse to it in sales.

You never want to be in a position to sell something worth 20 times as much as the thing which killed it in actual battle ^^
In other words, it's not within realism to think this isn't Germany's main issue with sending its own market valued tank when its main antagonist won't be there.

These are views that are completely divorced from reality and it has no basis for it. There is no concern that Leopard IIs will be destroyed like flies. Germany does not expect to get tanks from USA. Leopard IIs price is not a concern. It already sold really well and they are working on its successor. It's an established fact that much cheaper weapons can destroy much more expensive vehicles. It is indeed not within realism to think any of what you say.

[Kyriakos]

Conon I agree with you that it would help Ukraine, the point is it's more important (to Germany) to keep the LeoII price where it is than to help Ukraine.
Otherwise they'd have no issue giving LeoII to Ukraine- can you think of any other?