Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

I've never accepted the argument that ‘Ukraine can't have elections in wartime’

Absolutely. People seem to like to pretend that elections have never been held during wartime before. This is anything but true. Even in Ukraine, when Zelensky was elected in 2019 the war in the Donbas was already raging.

since the war is coming to an end.

Is it? How come?

[Ludicus]

Is it? How come?

I’m not clairvoyant but isn't Ukraine heading for defeat? isnt NATO waiting for Trump transition?
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Unsurprisingly, the usual comments about the left that "admires Russia" were to be expected. Personally, I don't feel offended, and I even find it interesting.
I'm going to tell you a story that very few Portuguese have ever heard. Mário Soares was recently honored in the Portuguese Parliament during the celebrations of his centenary. From the left to the right (except for the Salazarist, ultranationalist, and racist Chega party), all the deputies paid tribute to him, including those from the Communist Party.

When Soares went to the north of the country after the April 25 revolution, he was called a communist. When he went to Alentejo, he was called a fascist.

Mitterrand was the first European politician to visit Portugal after the revolution. In a conversation with Soares, Mitterrand told him: "If I am elected President of France, the first thing I will do is settle accounts with the Communist Party." Soares replied: "You are a lucky guy. Here, the first thing I have to do is defend the Communist Party to walk the streets, scaring the far right to see if I can attract them to democracy. I have to do the opposite."
Sometime later, Soares said: "We have to put the right in power because we need to bring the right into democracy."

The danger, and Soares was right, was not the Communist Party. The danger was the far right and the lack of democratic culture in Portugal. In fact, Portugal had the longest authoritarian regime in Europe (1926–1933, 1933–1974).
In the late 1990s, he doubted, as I always have, Tony Blair's Third Way. He said that the "Third Way would lead European socialist and democratic parties to lose the working classes." And that's what happened.

He was a personal friend of Shimon Peres and Arafat, and because of that, in 1983, a representative of the PLO who was supposed to attend a Socialist International meeting with Soares, Shimon Peres, and Willy Brandt was assassinated in the Algarve. One day, courageously, Soares crossed Beirut under fire at Willy Brandt's request to meet Arafat. A bullet lodged in the front seat where his chief of staff was sitting. "It’s nothing. Let’s continue," he said.

He brought Portugal into the EU when most of his advisors were against that idea, fearing that the country’s economy couldn’t bear the necessary effort. I also doubted. It took eight years because the EU wanted Spain to join at the same time as Portugal, and France was raising obstacles to their entry due to Spanish agriculture.

In the final phase of his life, Soares turned to the left. In 2003, when the Iraq invasion occurred, he doubted that the US was a democracy—just as I did. He foresaw the 2008 financial crisis, which he called the “casino economy.” But he was always a democrat to the core.

[Alastor]

I’m not clairvoyant but isn't Ukraine heading for defeat? isnt NATO waiting for Trump transition?

I'm not too optimistic. There is still a massive gap among the expectations of the various sides involved. Unless somehow that is bridged in the coming months, I don't see how this war is about to end. Ukraine may be heading for defeat but it still has a fair amount of blood to offer, we haven't gotten to the last Ukrainian quite yet.

[mishkin]

Things in their proper order:

1. Withdrawal of invading troops from Ukraine.

2. End of martial law in Ukraine.

3. Promoting freedoms and democracy in Ukraine through the European Union. Not through a military invasion by a fscist state.

[PointOfViewGun]

Unsurprisingly, the usual comments about the left that "admires Russia" were to be expected. Personally, I don't feel offended, and I even find it interesting.

No one really commented as such. You're even altering what people say about your arguments.

[mishkin]

Actually, if it is not an excessive personalization, I would really like to know, Ludicus, what is your position regarding this conflict beyond the fact that NATO is an organization threatening Russia's sovereignty, Russia will win and Ukraine is a democratically deficient state. (I see that you have not responded to the op poll).

Ludicus*, do you support Putin's operation to take Kyiv and depose the Ukrainian government?

(*or anyone who feels addressed)

[PointOfViewGun]

Actually, if it is not an excessive personalization, I would really like to know, Ludicus, what is your position regarding this conflict beyond the fact that NATO is an organization threatening Russia's sovereignty, Russia will win and Ukraine is a democratically deficient state. (I see that you have not responded to the op poll).

Ludicus*, do you support Putin's operation to take Kyiv and depose the Ukrainian government?

(*or anyone who feels addressed)

He responded with Not Sure.

[mishkin]

He seems pretty sure now.

[Ludicus]

I hope it ends the way it's supposed to: with some territorial concessions from Ukraine and its neutrality.On a side note, Ukraine's entry into the EU won't be easy. European farmers, especially the French, would more readily accept the Mercosur-EU agreement than Ukraine's entry into the EU, which they are currently fiercely opposed to. Remember that they delayed Spain's entry into the EU by eight years.
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Everything I've written about MS, one of the great names of European democracy, has been aimed at explaining to the less attentive that, if this man were alive today, he wouldn't say anything very different to what I've been saying. In Brussels, there is a room named after him. Felipe González called him "an incorruptibly anti-dictatorship democrat." The President of the Council of Europe, the first socialist to be elected to this position, praises him: "Today, living in times of tension and fear, we need more than ever the inspiration of Mário Soares." This is true, but not in the belligerent way Kaja Kallas thinks.

If he were alive today, Soares would not be able to imagine this soulless Europe, exchanging peace for the most pathetic belligerence, and blind obedience to the aggressive expansionism of those sitting in the White House. He was a man seduced by the idea of lasting world peace, following the peaceful end of the Cold War. Over the course of more than two decades, Mário Soares and Gorbachev maintained a relationship of deep friendship which, in addition to mutual praise, fostered a regular debate of ideas. Unfortunately, he soon realized that the USA had not become a benevolent hegemonic force. Let us now look at what Soares said in a not-so-distant past:

• He warned the European Union of the danger of being hijacked by a NATO transformed into an instrument of an aggressive America.
• He condemned the illegal NATO bombings of Belgrade (1999). He denounced the criminal invasion of Iraq (2003).
• In 2013, he had no doubt in asserting that "what we have today are ultra reactionary parties, pro-market. The socialist and labor parties are decapitated, and the Christian democratic parties are even more so."
• Between 2010 and 2014, he started a struggle against an aggressive Brussels, which swapped the path of democratic integration, the path of peace and justice, for the austerity of the euro as a wall of financial and neoliberal plutocracy.

How does what Soares said differ from what J.D. Vance says today in the field of U.S. foreign policy? Very little or nothing at all: "I believed the propaganda of the George W. Bush administration that we had to invade Iraq because it was a war for freedom and democracy. When I went to Iraq, I realized they had lied to me. I saw that the promises of this country's foreign policy were a joke." Vance argues that "the obsessive focus on moralism, the idea that democracy is good, and Saddam Hussein is bad, or that America is good, and tyranny is bad—makes no sense in the field of foreign policy." Elijah Crane correctly said that: "The military-industrial complex is alive and well here in Washington DC. When the U.S. is at war, business is booming for a number of big companies."

[PointOfViewGun]

Lifting of ATACMS range limitations likely helped curtail Russia's ability to perform bomb runs against Ukraine:

[Love Mountain]

I hope it ends the way it's supposed to: with some territorial concessions from Ukraine and its neutrality.On a side note, Ukraine's entry into the EU won't be easy. European farmers, especially the French, would more readily accept the Mercosur-EU agreement than Ukraine's entry into the EU, which they are currently fiercely opposed to. Remember that they delayed Spain's entry into the EU by eight years.
----
Everything I've written about MS, one of the great names of European democracy, has been aimed at explaining to the less attentive that, if this man were alive today, he wouldn't say anything very different to what I've been saying. In Brussels, there is a room named after him. Felipe González called him "an incorruptibly anti-dictatorship democrat." The President of the Council of Europe, the first socialist to be elected to this position, praises him: "Today, living in times of tension and fear, we need more than ever the inspiration of Mário Soares." This is true, but not in the belligerent way Kaja Kallas thinks.

If he were alive today, Soares would not be able to imagine this soulless Europe, exchanging peace for the most pathetic belligerence, and blind obedience to the aggressive expansionism of those sitting in the White House. He was a man seduced by the idea of lasting world peace, following the peaceful end of the Cold War. Over the course of more than two decades, Mário Soares and Gorbachev maintained a relationship of deep friendship which, in addition to mutual praise, fostered a regular debate of ideas. Unfortunately, he soon realized that the USA had not become a benevolent hegemonic force. Let us now look at what Soares said in a not-so-distant past:

• He warned the European Union of the danger of being hijacked by a NATO transformed into an instrument of an aggressive America.
• He condemned the illegal NATO bombings of Belgrade (1999). He denounced the criminal invasion of Iraq (2003).
• In 2013, he had no doubt in asserting that "what we have today are ultra reactionary parties, pro-market. The socialist and labor parties are decapitated, and the Christian democratic parties are even more so."
• Between 2010 and 2014, he started a struggle against an aggressive Brussels, which swapped the path of democratic integration, the path of peace and justice, for the austerity of the euro as a wall of financial and neoliberal plutocracy.

How does what Soares said differ from what J.D. Vance says today in the field of U.S. foreign policy? Very little or nothing at all: "I believed the propaganda of the George W. Bush administration that we had to invade Iraq because it was a war for freedom and democracy. When I went to Iraq, I realized they had lied to me. I saw that the promises of this country's foreign policy were a joke." Vance argues that "the obsessive focus on moralism, the idea that democracy is good, and Saddam Hussein is bad, or that America is good, and tyranny is bad—makes no sense in the field of foreign policy." Elijah Crane correctly said that: "The military-industrial complex is alive and well here in Washington DC. When the U.S. is at war, business is booming for a number of big companies."

I don't even know why Europe would even want Ukraine at this point, it's a war-torn country that needs to be rebuilt. I can understand why NATO will always have an interest in making Ukraine part of its periphery, but from an economic standpoint, Ukraine is likely to be a significant burden for many years to come.

Morally, it is of course desirable to keep Western promises to Ukraine, to help it become a prosperous and free country, but that's generally not why we sell people weapons.

[Alastor]

I don't even know why Europe would even want Ukraine at this point, it's a war-torn country that needs to be rebuilt.

That would be because modern day mainstream European politicians always seem to want what's the most detrimental to the people of Europe. The real question is why that's the case.

[PointOfViewGun]

I don't even know why Europe would even want Ukraine at this point, it's a war-torn country that needs to be rebuilt. I can understand why NATO will always have an interest in making Ukraine part of its periphery, but from an economic standpoint, Ukraine is likely to be a significant burden for many years to come.

Morally, it is of course desirable to keep Western promises to Ukraine, to help it become a prosperous and free country, but that's generally not why we sell people weapons.

Or it can be a new reconstruction project that can benefit many European companies as well as reintroduction of a lost market for European brands.

[Ludicus]

If we summarize the Korean War in a short paragraph, we can say that it started at the 38th parallel and ended at the 38th parallel, after more than three million deaths.
If we draw a parallel with the Ukrainian war (pun intended), this is how the war in Ukraine will end: frozen.

Putin modified Russia's nuclear doctrine, lowering the level of conflict at which these weapons can be used, and Truman also said that he would use all means necessary to win the Korean War, using nuclear weapons if necessary.
On several occasions, the use of the atomic bomb was considered and debated among American commanders during the Korean War. On 6 April 1951, the CEM ordered the immediate launch of atomic reprisals against Manchu bases if significant new contingents of Chinese soldiers joined the fighting or, it seems, if bombers departed from these bases against American positions. On the same day, Gordon Dean, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, took steps to transfer nine Mark IV nuclear warheads to the 9th Military Aviation Bombardment Group, designed to carry atomic bombs.
GORDON DEAN AND THE ISSUE OF CIVILIAN CONTROL

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Edit.The 10th United Nations Alliance of Civilizations (UNAOC) Global Forum took place in the city of Cascais, Portugal, on 25-27 November 2024, under the theme "United in Peace: Restoring Trust, Reshaping the Future - Reflecting on Two Decades of Dialogue for Humanity"
Watch the video. Ukraine and Gaza debated, and much more. Tzipi Livni was here. The dialogue between the participants was civilized, even in the exchange of arguments between Tzipi and Jeffrey Sachs. Very interesting. Plenary Session 2: "United in Peace: Restoring Trust, Reshaping the Future"
Plenary Session 2 - 10th UNAOC Global Forum - UN Web TV

Paticipants
H.E. Mr. George Andreas Papandreou, Prime Minister of the Hellenic Republic (2009-2011)
H.E. Mr. Valdis Zatlers, President of Latvia (2007-2011)
H.E. Mrs. Tzipi Livni, Minister of Foreign Affairs (2006–2009) and Minister of Justice of the State of Israel (2006-2007, 2013-2014)
H.E. Mr. Volkan Bozkir, President of the 75th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, Former Minister of European Union Affairs of Türkiye
H.E. Judge Mohamed Abdelsalam, Secretary General, Muslim Council of Elders
H.E. Ms. Ilze Brands Kehris, United Nations Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights, OHCHR
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs, Economist, President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network and Former Director of the Centre for Sustainable Development in the Earth Institute at Columbia University
Moderator: H.E. Mr. Boris Tadić, President of the Republic of Serbia (2004-2012)

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Here we let Tzipi Livni speak, but in France the only French Palestinian MEP in the EU is constantly harassed and boycotted

[PointOfViewGun]

If we summarize the Korean War in a short paragraph, we can say that it started at the 38th parallel and ended at the 38th parallel, after more than three million deaths.
If we draw a parallel with the Ukrainian war (pun intended), this is how the war in Ukraine will end: frozen.

Putin modified Russia's nuclear doctrine, lowering the level of conflict at which these weapons can be used, and Truman also said that he would use all means necessary to win the Korean War, using nuclear weapons if necessary.
On several occasions, the use of the atomic bomb was considered and debated among American commanders during the Korean War. On 6 April 1951, the CEM ordered the immediate launch of atomic reprisals against Manchu bases if significant new contingents of Chinese soldiers joined the fighting or, it seems, if bombers departed from these bases against American positions. On the same day, Gordon Dean, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, took steps to transfer nine Mark IV nuclear warheads to the 9th Military Aviation Bombardment Group, designed to carry atomic bombs.
GORDON DEAN AND THE ISSUE OF CIVILIAN CONTROL

Are you saying USA should use nukes on Russia in defense of Ukraine?