Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Cyclops]

What does a partial mobilisation mean? Doesnt any mobilisation require a declaration of war?

That was my amateur understanding, to get any more pieces out of the cupboard requires a war.

It looks to my dim understanding like the rule of law is breaking down in Russia, and its fiat rule.

[Papay]

Day 209 of everything is going according to plan: El Duce announces partial mobilization. Fear not dear slave.. err.. citizen, this doesn't at all mean that the original force dedicated to the invasion was insufficient to fulfill the plan, and definitely does not confirm that the invasion.. err.. liberation force has suffered severe casualties. In fact, we've been steadily advancing towards the Russian border! 300,000 more poorly trained and poorly armed soldiers is just what we need to finish the job, as was always the plan!

edit: Shoigu just stated that Russia lost 5937 servicemen in Ukraine. He actually thinks someone is stupid enough to believe that they're mobilizing because they lost 6k out of their 200k+ force. What a clown.

Yes there are stupid people that believe Russia has lost only 6.000 soldiers just like other stupid people believe Ukraine has lost only 9.000

[Alastor]

What does a partial mobilisation mean? Doesnt any mobilisation require a declaration of war?

That was my amateur understanding, to get any more pieces out of the cupboard requires a war.

It looks to my dim understanding like the rule of law is breaking down in Russia, and its fiat rule.

My understanding is that it means he's calling a specific cohort of reservists. Likely the ones that served in the army most recently.

I'm not sure exactly what the law in Russia is, but mobilisation generally does not require the declaration of war. it happened several times in preparation for war and before war was declared for instance.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

The First World War started with (partial) mobilisation because of imminent danger of war.

A declaration of war is not necessary for a mobilisation.

[Mithradates]

My understanding is that it means he's calling a specific cohort of reservists. Likely the ones that served in the army most recently.

Yes, minus those who served as conscripts or students. About 300k reservists who had the chance to volunteer but they chose not to, now they will be dragged from their civilian lives, their morale will be abysmal. Not a coincidence that according to the new law passed yesterday Russians deserting during mobilization will face 10 years in jail.
Also the contracts for reserves last "until the end of the partial mobilization period" i.e. indefinitely

After the announcement of partial mobilization, all tickets for flights from Moscow to Istanbul and Yerevan were sold out in a few minutes.

The website of Russian Railways froze due to the number of attempts to buy tickets.

This is going great already...

[Beorn]

Huge queues reported on the border with Finland, too.

[Papay]

Yes, minus those who served as conscripts or students. About 300k reservists who had the chance to volunteer but they chose not to, now they will be dragged from their civilian lives, their morale will be abysmal. Not a coincidence that according to the new law passed yesterday Russians deserting during mobilization will face 10 years in jail.
Also the contracts for reserves last "until the end of the partial mobilization period" i.e. indefinitely

After the announcement of partial mobilization, all tickets for flights from Moscow to Istanbul and Yerevan were sold out in a few minutes.

The website of Russian Railways froze due to the number of attempts to buy tickets.

This is going great already...

Well Ukraine is not is better situation either. They already have declared mobilization and despite the western fanfare about the success of the Ukrainian victories, they still dont threaten any of the big cities Russia occupies. Soon you will have to face 300.000 more soldiers which means that you are in danger not only to loose what Russia threatens to annex but even more territory

[Cyclops]

AFAIK the Russian state in its current form has never fully mobilises, and any mobilisation has by Russian law requires a state if war, either an attack km Russia or a declaration by Russia. Conscripts cant be sent outside the Federation without a state of war etc, pretty basic stuff and IIRC discussed on these boards if not ITT.

Russian law requires a state of war for any mobilisation to take place.

[conon394]

Yes, minus those who served as conscripts or students. About 300k reservists who had the chance to volunteer but they chose not to, now they will be dragged from their civilian lives, their morale will be abysmal. Not a coincidence that according to the new law passed yesterday Russians deserting during mobilization will face 10 years in jail.
Also the contracts for reserves last "until the end of the partial mobilization period" i.e. indefinitely

After the announcement of partial mobilization, all tickets for flights from Moscow to Istanbul and Yerevan were sold out in a few minutes.

The website of Russian Railways froze due to the number of attempts to buy tickets.

This is going great already...

ISW had a write up on the Russian military system

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...d-mobilization

Key point Russia does not a real reserve system. In theory they obviously have records of service... but they don't really have a formal reserve equivalent to the US military. Nor as I understand it are contracts designed like US ones - that is say you might have signed up for 2 years in the army but in reality you are under contract for 8 years total with the balance of the 6 in (active) reserves or the IRR. As far as I know the army is a little loose with reminding 2 year active soldiers of that but the other branches that uses 4-6 year active contracts seem pretty up front that you are not out when your active service is over. For the latter my impression is its a selling point to get people to switch to the active reserve after active service. Once you in for 4 or 6 years you can be sure you know you are the most likely to recalled out of the IRR might as stay sharp and earn a check doing it for what is a really flexible minimal part time job.

Overall if you read the ISW artical Putin should theoretically be able to jump start new unit formation pretty good - that is using a cadre of active reservists and than fill that out with stop loss guys who kinda new the day might come. But since the system never seems to have come into existence...(*). I tend to think this might be something that should have been done at the very start of the war err special military cluster F to be useful in the now when Russia needs reserves that are ready.

* I suppose there are a lot shiny power points or presentations laying about describing how well the development of the system was going and that it was meeting all its retention and enlistment goals.

[Alastor]

AFAIK the Russian state in its current form has never fully mobilises, and any mobilisation has by Russian law requires a state if war, either an attack km Russia or a declaration by Russia. Conscripts cant be sent outside the Federation without a state of war etc, lretty vasic stuff and IIRC discussed on these boards if not ITT.

Russian law requires a state of war for any mobilisation to take place.

I'm not aware of what Russian law says about mobilisations, but it feels to me like a general mobilisation and a declaration of war is exactly the goal. After the referenda have happened and Russia annexes the Donbas, then any Ukrainian incursion would be an attack on Russian soil and as such offer justification for a full mobilisation and a formal declaration of war.

Let's see how this develops.

[EmperorBatman999]

Well Ukraine is not is better situation either. They already have declared mobilization and despite the western fanfare about the success of the Ukrainian victories, they still dont threaten any of the big cities Russia occupies. Soon you will have to face 300.000 more soldiers which means that you are in danger not only to loose what Russia threatens to annex but even more territory

It remains to be seen whether this will be the case. 300,000 troops is a significant number, but if they’re poorly trained, poorly equipped, inexperienced in combat, and poorly motivated, they could well be a hindrance rather than an asset. They could very easily break and root, flooding the escape routes and spreading panic to other units.

They’re like Parthian Spearmen.

[Sar1n]

It remains to be seen whether this will be the case. 300,000 troops is a significant number, but if they’re poorly trained, poorly equipped, inexperienced in combat, and poorly motivated, they could well be a hindrance rather than an asset. They could very easily break and root, flooding the escape routes and spreading panic to other units.

They’re like Parthian Spearmen.

Not to mention massive strain on already overloaded logistic system. Give Ukraine some ATACMS, and many of those troops will turn into meat popsicles over the winter.

[Ludicus]

I will not claim to know what zelensky meant by saying it will not be an absolutely liberal state..

It's not easy to guess, because he already said it. A police state, authoritarian state,a political model based on a fascistoid hyper-militarization,"We will not be surprised that we will have representatives of the Armed Forces or the National Guard in all institutions,soldiers everywhere"
And he added, " a big Israel with its own face".
---
I don't want to offend your patriotic feelings, and I know you know to listen to others.I really appreciate that.As you know, I have never avoided criticizing my own country.

But I need to say that comparing Ukraine and Israel, Zelensky reversed the roles of occupier and occupied, by comparing the colonization of the west bank as a defensive struggle for freedom. Like Russia, Israel is a nuclear-armed military superpower that is de facto colonizing a smaller country, although there is a substantial difference: apart from western regions of Ukraine, Russian is the most common language speak Russian in Donbass, Crimea, Kharkiv and eastern and southern portions of the country, and there are several cultural similarities (even Zelensky is a native Russian speaker, “For me, it is easier to think in Russian”, he once said during the electoral campaign). From a western point of view, if anything, we can say that Ukrainians’ situation is closest to that of the West Bank Palestinians’, and yet, Ukraine regularly takes public positions in support of the Israeli occupation. Israel, on the other hand, have oscillated between Russia and Ukraine, because Israel needs Russia’s continuing toleration of its own military strikes on targets in Syria.

--
For many Americans, Zelensky went from traitor to hero in a short period of time, in the transition of the Trump presidency to Biden'.The Betrayal of Volodymyr Zelensky - The Atlantic
Although the Atlantic in 2019 does not exempt it from criticism,

(…) Still, Zelensky is a child of the Soviet Union, which attempted to bury Jewish history, and he has rarely focused publicly on his own religious identity. When he portrayed Jews in his comic sketches, the humor often carried an atavistic edge. He once dressed in a yarmulke and wire-rimmed glasses while finagling his way out of paying bills. Mocking a Jewish oligarch, he spoke in a stereotypical accent that Jackie Mason might consider a touch too thick.

--

They're mobilising because the Ukrainians did so too and currently seem to outnumber them...Not mobilising earlier was a strategic blunder that Russia seeks to correct.

Precisely. Putin was urged by Sergei Shoigu to escalate the war Putin escalates Ukraine war, issues nuclear threat to West
Referendums (which must be held in peacetime, not in wartime) will serve to turn these territories into Russian soil. Consequently, any attack on Russian/"Russian" soil gives Russia the opportunity to respond with full-scale warfare, perhaps with nuclear weapons. This means that the doomsday clock keeps ticking, it’s closest it's ever been to midnight, Playing With Fire in Ukraine

The risk of it is substantially greater than the conventional wisdom holds. And given that the consequences of escalation could include a major war in Europe and possibly even nuclear annihilation, there is good reason for extra concern.
To understand the dynamics of escalation in Ukraine, start with each side’s goals. Since the war began, both Moscow and Washington have raised their ambitions significantly, and both are now deeply committed to winning the war and achieving formidable political aims. As a result, each side has powerful incentives to find ways to prevail and, more important, to avoid losing. In practice, this means that the United States might join the fighting either if it is desperate to win or to prevent Ukraine from losing, while Russia might use nuclear weapons if it is desperate to win or faces imminent defeat, which would be likely if U.S. forces were drawn into the fighting.

[Lord Thesaurian]

Announcing mobilization before the sham referenda can even be organized suggests what remains of Russian forces is too exhausted to wait around for more “volunteers” and fresh reserves have to be rotated in. While this means Russia can continue fighting on as it has been (poorly), time will tell whether this actually provides Russian forces with sufficient numbers to continue invading and occupying Ukrainian territory in the next year, especially after such significant losses to date.

[AqD]

Consequently, any attack on Russian/"Russian" soil gives Russia the opportunity to respond with full-scale warfare, perhaps with nuclear weapons. This means that the doomsday clock keeps ticking, it’s closest it's ever been to midnight, Playing With Fire in Ukraine

What evidence do you have that indicates Russia is even remotely capable of WW3 or start large scale nuclear attacks?

Here is what gonna happen:

1. Kremlin give command to launch nukes
2. Nukes fail since parts have been sold and operators busy escaping for their life
3. Detecting the attempt to launch nuke, all strategic nuclear weapons from US and EU are launched
4. End of motherland

We'd lose a gas station, maybe one or two cities, still worth for mankind to end the biggest evil since 20th century.

[EmperorBatman999]

What evidence do you have that indicates Russia is even remotely capable of WW3 or start large scale nuclear attacks?

Here is what gonna happen:

1. Kremlin give command to launch nukes
2. Nukes fail since parts have been sold and operators busy escaping for their life
3. Detecting the attempt to launch nuke, all strategic nuclear weapons from US and EU are launched
4. End of motherland

We'd lose a gas station, maybe one or two cities, still worth for mankind to end the biggest evil since 20th century.

At this point, I suspect that one of the reasons we haven't seen Russia use a tac nuke yet is because they don't have a working weapon available.

However, I'd really rather not try and find out whether your assessment is true. In some ways, I'm disappointed that the Russian population reaction's to this was to run away, rather than to draw a line and try to end this entire charade.

[Ludicus]

News from Germany

Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Secretary,
Czech Republic: Back Ukraine 'no matter what my German voters think -includes video

If I give the promise to people in Ukraine, we stand with you as long as you need us, then I want to deliver, no matter what my German voters think but I want to deliver to the people of Ukraine

Alice Weidel (AFD) called for Baerbock's resignation. "Anyone who expressly ignores the interests of voters in Germany should not hold ministerial office"
--

The latest survey by the opinion research institute Forsa for the RTL/n-tv-Trend barometer has shown that a large majority of Germans believe that the West should initiate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. 87 percent of Germans expect that the heads of state and government in the West will finally speak to Russian President Putin. This view finds a majority in all electoral groups. Most Germans oppose the Ukrainian government's demand for modern battle tanks.

RTL/ntv Trendbarometer - Ukraine-Krieg - RTL Media Hub

Ukraine war: 77 percent say the West should initiate negotiations between Ukraine and Russia / 87 percent think it is right for Western heads of government to continue talking to Putin (Ukraine-Krieg: 77 Prozent sagen der Westen sollte Verhandlungen zwischen der Ukraine und Russland anstoßen / 87 Prozent finden es richtig, dass westliche Regierungschefs weiterhin mit Putin sprechen)

According to the current RTL/ntv trend barometer, most Germans oppose the Ukrainian government's demand for modern battle tanks (Die meisten Deutschen lehnen die Forderung der ukrainischen Regierung nach modernen Kampfpanzern ab)


Only 26 percent of German citizens believe that the Ukrainian army is also capable of repelling Russian troops on a broad front with a broad counteroffensive. 61 percent do not believe that Ukraine's force is sufficient for this. (Lediglich 26 Prozent der Bundesbürger glauben, dass die ukrainische Armee auch in der Lage ist, mit einer breit angelegten Gegenoffensive die russischen Truppen auf breiter Front zurückzudrängen. 61 Prozent glauben nicht, dass die Kraft der Ukraine dafür ausreicht)

What evidence do you have that indicates Russia is even remotely capable of WW3 or start large scale nuclear attacks?

Hypersonic missles are unstoppable. How Russia Beat America to the Hypersonic Missile

The United States has conducted 17 different hypersonic-missile tests since 2010, and it has seen 10 failures. The most recent U.S. test, in March 2022, was a success, but America is at least a year away from fielding a hypersonic weapon in combat...The United States isn’t shying away from the challenge of conventional hypersonic payloads, but the engineering obstacles have so far proven too steep for the Pentagon.

An atomic war represents the end of humanity. No one wins.

[Vanoi]

ICBMs as they are now are incredibly difficult to shoot down. Hypersonic missiles have not changed the nuclear war game. They are better conventional weapons than they are nuclear weapons.

[Laser101]

At this point, I suspect that one of the reasons we haven't seen Russia use a tac nuke yet is because they don't have a working weapon available.

However, I'd really rather not try and find out whether your assessment is true. In some ways, I'm disappointed that the Russian population reaction's to this was to run away, rather than to draw a line and try to end this entire charade.

Another probable reason is a lack of significant viable targets. Forces along the front are spread out and mobile; there aren't any tightly-concentrated groups.

The reaction to the mobilization order has been entirely predictable. Unsurprisingly, a population who had been conditioned not to care about politics reacted poorly to being told they could be sent to a war they don't care about.

[Cyclops]

Putin is several months late with his "partial" mobilusation, could have used the troops now but he waited 6 months to call them up.

It will take as long maybe longer to bring them into the line as Ukraine did ie 6-8 months.

Is there any credible explanation for Putins insbility to bring his forces to the table? This "partial" mobilisation suggests desperation has overcome fear or whatever it is.

Should have read his Macchiavelli on starting wars. "Is not war, Niccolo, is Special Military [cough cough] Operationski".