Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[swabian]

There is hardly any Russian "professional spearhead force" so far in action. They are now mobilizing and will eventually declare open war, once the state goes bankrupt.

[Coughdrop addict]

Some of our most prominent Putin apologists haven't posted since the mobilization began.

Coincidence?

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Drafted.

[Sar1n]

Drafted.

More likely trying to find their way out of the country before being served the papers.

[Alastor]

You guys are acting as if people evading the draft is a uniquely Russian phenomenon. It's anything but.

There are though some rather serious problems with the effectiveness of the bureaucracy that's supposed to execute this mobilisation. As well as reports of defective equipment and other materiel shortages. Those are more important I believe as they indicate a problem much more acute than draft evasion. Russia can always choose to expand the cohort they opt to mobilise when it comes to finding troops, but if they can't arm them that won't help them all that much. If that's the case, declaring war would perhaps make even more sense here, not as much for the mobilisation of troops, but for that of the economy.

Whatever the case, on the EU front, there are voices that say Putin's nuclear message that he's not bluffing, should be believed. While the continent is at the mercy of the weather:
https://www.politico.eu/article/will...crisis-prices/

[conon394]

You guys are acting as if people evading the draft is a uniquely Russian phenomenon. It's anything but.

Well yes draft dodging is a problem for everyone. However the scale in the face of the announcement does show I think Putin was kinda right politically if not military to try and plug his manpower holes with special recruitment from out of the way places. Apathy would seem to have been his friend. He announcement is certainly not being greeted with the kind or volunteer response that 9/11 produced in the US.

There are though some rather serious problems with the effectiveness of the bureaucracy that's supposed to execute this mobilisation. As well as reports of defective equipment and other materiel shortages. Those are more important I believe as they indicate a problem much more acute than draft evasion. Russia can always choose to expand the cohort they opt to mobilise when it comes to finding troops, but if they can't arm them that won't help them all that much. If that's the case, declaring war would perhaps make even more sense here, not as much for the mobilisation of troops, but for that of the economy.

I'm not sure declaring war helps anymore. I agree the bureaucracy can only actually train and process (and get new equipment ready for them) so many men in the short run the total numbers arriving at the front will be much smaller than the total that is likely months off. But Putin has I think got what needs for now. Stop loss. For his army fighting now. For all the conscripts who would expire. And in the first cohort of draft manpower and he gets the manpower to pin Ukrainian forces anywhere there is a Russian (or Belarus) boarder and troops to reinforce his lines. Thus setting up probably the status quo for the winter and he gets to wait out and see if cold Europe is really in for a long fight.

I would say this also pushes NATO - and particularity the strongest backers of Ukraine to have up their own support for Ukraine militarily or by spring Russia could have the manpower and equipment edge and win a longer war.

[Sar1n]

I'm not sure declaring war helps anymore. I agree the bureaucracy can only actually train and process (and get new equipment ready for them) so many men in the short run the total numbers arriving at the front will be much smaller than the total that is likely months off. But Putin has I think got what needs for now. Stop loss. For his army fighting now. For all the conscripts who would expire. And in the first cohort of draft manpower and he gets the manpower to pin Ukrainian forces anywhere there is a Russian (or Belarus) boarder and troops to reinforce his lines. Thus setting up probably the status quo for the winter and he gets to wait out and see if cold Europe is really in for a long fight.

I would say this also pushes NATO - and particularity the strongest backers of Ukraine to have up their own support for Ukraine militarily or by spring Russia could have the manpower and equipment edge and win a longer war.

Months off? Apparently, some at already on the front-and in this case, POW.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574762832398262273

This isn't mobilization like the one in Ukraine, where everyone got at least few weeks even in time of greatest need, and many had months and NATO trainers to prepare. Russia is sending the recruits in raw, hoping they remember how to use AK from their compulsory service.

[conon394]

Months off? Apparently, some at already on the front-and in this case, POW.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1574762832398262273

This isn't mobilization like the one in Ukraine, where everyone got at least few weeks even in time of greatest need, and many had months and NATO trainers to prepare. Russia is sending the recruits in raw, hoping they remember how to use AK from their compulsory service.

True. I did not say they not going to shove men into the pipe right away. But it the stop loss I think that's most important now to stabilize the manpower. It really still turns on what Russia can do come next year.


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On a different note wtf to Russia for not coming up with/actually crating an active reserve system and also dropping conscription to one year and pretending they had an army. I mean even a basic US army 2 year contract is most likely One Station Unit Training for 22 weeks that would nearly half of a 1 year term.

[Sar1n]

On a different note wtf to Russia for not coming up with/actually crating an active reserve system and also dropping conscription to one year and pretending they had an army. I mean even a basic US army 2 year contract is most likely One Station Unit Training for 22 weeks that would nearly half of a 1 year term.

Russia is attempting to switch to professional volunteer army with active reserve, but it has trouble finding the volunteers.

[conon394]

My impression was the active reserve part was more power point than actual implementation.

Although to be fair Poland is apparently just realizing they made the same mistake going all volunteer active but not really thinking out having an active reserve to retain skills and or draw in some part time time trainees with a related territorial guard or direct join the reserve system.

[Ludicus]

Who is economically interested in the simultaneous sabotage of the Nordstream 1 and 2 gas pipelines? I doubt that the ongoing investigations will ever find out the culprits of this act of terrorism.

Fears of sabotage as gas pours into Baltic from Nord Stream 1 ...

explosions, amid three simultaneous leaks… You have to ask: "Who would profit?” one European security source told Reuters.

Gas leaks in Russian pipelines to Europe trigger sabotage ...
Poland, Denmark fear 'sabotage' over Russian gas pipeline ...
Kremlin: sabotage cannot be ruled out as reason for Nord ...
Germany Suspects Sabotage Hit Russia's Nord Stream ...
Russia's gas pipelines to Europe suffer mysterious leaks

A European security source told Reuters there were indications that the leaks were caused by “deliberate damage”. Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, said, “It’s hard to imagine that these are coincidences"...Nord Stream 2 hadn’t yet been put into normal operation but was filled with 177 million cubic metres of natural gas.

Who did it?

--
Edit.



The Military Draft During the Vietnam War

The military draft brought the war to the American home front. During the Vietnam War era, between 1964 and 1973, the U.S. military drafted 2.2 million American men out of an eligible pool of 27 million. Although only 25 percent of the military force in the combat zones were draftees, the system of conscription caused many young American men to volunteer for the armed forces in order to have more of a choice of which division in the military they would serve. While many soldiers did support the war, at least initially, to others the draft seemed like a death sentence: being sent to a war and fight for a cause that they did not believe in. Some sought refuge in college or parental deferments; others intentionally failed aptitude tests or otherwise evaded; thousands fled to Canada; the politically connected sought refuge in the National Guard; and a growing number engaged in direct resistance. Antiwar activists viewed the draft as immoral and the only means for the government to continue the war with fresh soldiers. Ironically, as the draft continued to fuel the war effort, it also intensified the antiwar cause. Although the Selective Service’s deferment system meant that men of lower socioeconomic standing were most likely to be sent to the front lines, no one was completely safe from the draft.

Why Bringing Back the Draft Could Stop America's Forever Wars - TIME

--
Nobody likes to be forced to go to war. A Brazilian poet and humorist wrote many years ago that only men over 40, and with their mother's permission, should be allowed to go to war.

[Alastor]

Who did it?

Who indeed...

[conon394]

The Military Draft During the Vietnam War

Nice baby boomer navel gazing and mythology there. I particularity like this bit:

"Second, Ayers pointed out that an all-volunteer military has created a poor man’s army, because enlistment is attractive to individuals who have no other options because they are poor or uneducated." I guess Ayers spent a little to much time in the weather underground to like actually google a fact or two but hey feels good to relive your idealized 60s days.

US military recruitment by neighborhood family income (I rounded a bit) in dollars

over 88,000 17%
67-88,000 21%
53-67,000 22%
42-53,000 21%
under 41,000 19%

Not seeing a poor mans military. Its more or less a middle class military(*). The Poor and the Wealthy are underrepresented.

* or more broadly a military of working and middle class trying to stay there and maybe bound upward.

Why Bringing Back the Draft Could Stop America's Forever Wars - TIME

He not really proposing a draft just a small cohort of elites since he correctly guess that some kind of contract/draft combo is kinda of a bad ideal - re Russia. But the funny thing his analysis is very much grounded completely in the post 1945 US thinking.

"Today the way we wage war is ahistorical–and seemingly without end. Never before has America engaged in a protracted conflict with an all-volunteer military that was funded primarily through deficit spending. Of our current $22 trillion national debt, approximately $6 trillion is a bill for the post-9/11 wars. These have become America’s longest, surpassing Vietnam by 12 years"

I do believe the nations of central and broader Latin America and the First Nations, and the Philippines would beg to differ on that long war thing.
But back to Russia conscription has not stopped Putin from war and a major one at that.

Who did it?

Well I believe I know your answer the US, UK, Poland and Estonian and maybe Lithuania in a join operation make sure Europe could not fold over Russian gas.

[Ludicus]

Slightly off topic, but its worth reading. It's about the madness of war.
Lobo Antunes, writer and psychiatrist, is one of Europe’s most brilliant authors. In 1970, along with nearly a million other men, he is called to serve in the Colonial War, in Angola, where he stayed until 1973.

Three recommended semi-autobiographical books: “Elephantine Memory”; “Land at the End of Nowhere”; and “Knowledge of Hell”. Read to fully understand the brutal and traumatic realities of war. Probably Portugal’s greatest living a writer. George Steiner called Lobo Antunes "the heir to Conrad and Faulkner". Speaking to the Paris Review about the veterans of the war in Angola, Lobo Antunes said:

When I arrived in Africa I looked up at the sky and said, “I don’t know these stars. Where am I? What am I doing here?” I just wanted to return alive. I remember we kept calendars and would cross off each day that we were still alive! I’ve talked to people who were in the Vietnam War, the Algerian War, and I’ve understood them perfectly. You can’t say these things to your wife or your son because they won’t understand it. It’s too strange an experience. It’s unreal.

Were there other Portuguese artists and writers addressing the legacy of the country’s colonial wars [which lasted from 1961 to 1974 in Angola, Mozambique, and Guinea-Bissau], or was it a forbidden or ignored subject?

Nobody dared to speak about it because censorship was very strong. Before democracy, many, many authors went to jail and their books couldn’t be published.
My book was the first to talk about the things that had actually happened. It came out in 1979, five years after the Revolution of 1974 that overthrew the Fascist dictatorship that had ruled Portugal for four decades.
Growing up, it was normal not to have a passport, not to talk about politics, not to use the word democracy. I remember once asking my father as a boy, “What is democracy?” And he answered, “Shut up and eat.”
What I really objected to was the fact that they sent us to war in the name of abstractions—motherland, honor, courage, and so on. And the politicians didn’t give a damn about us. It was clear that there were economic interests behind the war, that people were becoming rich selling arms to both sides of the conflict. That’s what I saw—some people became rich while the soldiers were usually very poor and came from poor families.
the most horrible thing was coming back, returning to Lisbon, because we didn’t know how to live anymore. We didn’t know how to pay for gas, for water, and so on. When you’re in the army, they take care of everything—they feed you, they dress you. Returning, you feel like someone who has had a stroke and must learn how to speak again, how to do everything again.
Surprisingly, the relationship between our two countries is very good now and the Angolans have shown an amazing capacity for forgiveness and generosity. We Europeans destroyed so much. We destroyed entire civilizations. They had a very rich literature, a very rich history of medicine. And yet we destroyed everything, bit by bit, in the name of civilization, in the name of culture.
I have an annual lunch with a group of friends who are veterans of the wars, and during the week afterward it’s very hard for me to sleep. So it’s still inside if all of us, and it will remain inside me until I die.

You’ve become world-renowned, a national treasure in Portugal. You were given the Jerusalem Prize for the Freedom of the Individual in Society in 2005 and the Camões Prize, the most important literary prize for the Portuguese language, in 2007. How does it feel to be so celebrated?

It’s all very surprising. But these prizes have nothing to do with literature. As a writer, you just have to shut your door and write. It’s funny—my wife is more jealous of my books than of other women because I’m always working and thinking about my books. I suppose I have become a sort of living monument in Portugal. But I come from a family with roots all over the world, so the idea of patriotism is not very strong in me. My country is the country of Chekhov, Beethoven, Velasquez—writers I like, painters and artists I admire.

[conon394]

I not sure anyone war war is not brutal and a poor option but at the same time I don't think you can equate all of them to being the same as equivalent to backstop wars by colonial powers clinging to their colonial possessions.

[Alastor]

Well I believe I know your answer the US, UK, Poland and Estonian and maybe Lithuania in a join operation make sure Europe could not fold over Russian gas.

Well, it's more believable than the Russia did it narrative Zelensky's folks fed us moments after it was announced. Why would Russia blow up their own pipelines when they could simply, like they had, turn them off.

[Heathen Hammer]

So blowing up German fuel infrastructure to own Russia is the new tactic by US.
What's next? Threatening missile strikes on England of France if Russia doesn't pull out? Sleepy Joe is really trying to alienate US and push Europeans towards Russia this way.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Well, it's more believable than the Russia did it narrative Zelensky's folks fed us moments after it was announced. Why would Russia blow up their own pipelines when they could simply, like they had, turn them off.

Because now they can wash their hands in innocence and need no longer invent false explanations why North Stream1 is shut down aka "Siemens delivered defect turbines so we can't deliver Natural Gas." And fuel innereuropean conflicts with fake news ( Ukraine\USA did it).

[Alastor]

Because now they can wash their hands in innocence and need no longer invent false explanations why North Stream1 is shut down aka "Siemens delivered defect turbines so we can't deliver Natural Gas." And fuel innereuropean conflicts with fake news ( Ukraine\USA did it).

And deprive themselves of their own leverage in the process? That's some 4D chess move you are describing there.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Which leverage? German Gas Storages are over 90% now and are, although North Stream is shut , still befueled going to 95% now. Germany didn't left the pro-ukrainian-coalition. It has failed.