Read this a while ago. Tnx for the link Peresvet, it's an interesting article. And an ominous one.
What has changed since the war that at first it had to be called a 'special operation', yet today it is being 'marketed' as a rerun of WW2?
A few days ago in the news, Russian soldier death rate highest since first week of war
All of this could be portrayed 'positively' as a result of successful Ukrainian resistance. And it probably is. But it's also ominous that Putin's regime seems steer towards a war of attrition, more or less openly leveraging the fact that it can sustain far higher casualties than Ukraine and still keep fighting. Whether out of necessity or not, Putin has decided this is the moment to ignite that seemingly ever present catalyst of destruction: patriotism. The turning point where the more Russians die, the more inconceivable any solution but absolute victory becomes, not just to him, but the population or Russia as a whole. Where apathy is no longer enough and anything but active participation is treason. Think of that next time people are marching behind some nationalist symbol wherever you live. I know it's a tangent, but one that is in all probability closer to home to most of us. Every society has its fair share of flag waving, anthem singing maniacs, ready to play the enforcers of your doom, if given a uniform and the prospect of some trinkets on a ribbon to pin on their chest.
Last edited by Muizer; February 14, 2023 at 06:51 AM.
"Lay these words to heart, Lucilius, that you may scorn the pleasure which comes from the applause of the majority. Many men praise you; but have you any reason for being pleased with yourself, if you are a person whom the many can understand?" - Lucius Annaeus Seneca -
Interesting, but sad information:
Despite the introduction of several packages of sanctions by the EU and the withdrawal of hundreds of European companies from the Russian market, by November 2022, that is, the ninth month of hostilities against Ukraine, many European countries restored trade with Russia to the February level. Moreover, it was restored in such a way that the volume of export products of the EU countries to the Russian Federation overtook the values of February. For example, Latvia increased exports to Russia by 67%, Slovenia - by 37%, Croatia - by 28%, Bulgaria - by 25%, Estonia - by 19%, Cyprus - by 12%, Luxembourg - by 7%. At the same time, imports from Russia grew over this period in general disproportionately: to Slovenia - 4.4 times, to Croatia - 2.7 times, to the Czech Republic - 2 times, to Malta - by 88%, to Spain — by 46%, to Belgium — by 39%, to Luxembourg — by 22%, to Cyprus — by 13%, to Estonia — by 11%, to Bulgaria — by 10%.
Why european countries continue give money for putin regime and finance for putin agression? Please, europeans, you must protest and fight for embargo with Russia of your countries!
Last edited by Peresvet; February 14, 2023 at 07:26 AM.
I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.
Because as I mention in my previous posts Europe's economy is going down the toilet at a greater rate than that of Russia's. The sanctions are doing more damage to Europe than Russia, and this is not feasible in the long term.
What you wont here on propagandist MSM is that economies such as that of Poland have practically collapsed...
Well, it's not true. The recession is pretty much called off for Germany and Europe. As soon as the FED sees unemployment rising in the US, the interest rate tinkering is gonna be called off too. Powell is very dovish (probably unreasonably so). Reason? The CPI index is not a good tool to predict inflation and possibly incites inflation if believed in too much.
I believe (not sure) the us and GB is basically leading the material war for Ukraine at this point. But there simply cannot be air support. You cannot produce pilots on the assembly line and it would also overstretch the boundaries of NATO neutrality. A NATO-war against Russia cannot happen, it's too risky (nukes). It has to be fought out as an artillery war and the Western major powers are already at that limit (Germany is largely demilitarized and can't even deliver ammo).
More realistically and hopefully he has realized the US did not create world wide inflation via its consumer demand or housing market and that he done enough hand waving to satisfy people who are terrified by small real wage gains for the average American (but not CEO s, or corporate profits or utterly useless and non productive stock buybacks). And willing to say supply side shocks cause the inflation and critically with e emperor of china giving up on his zero COVID measures and the world kind of digesting the Russia Ukraine war we are doing rather good on inflation. Also I never had an inflation zealot explain why 2% is a valid target and not say 3.5 %
Last edited by conon394; February 14, 2023 at 02:02 PM.
IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites
'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.
Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.
There is no "natural" rule that determines this, it is just the rate a stable monetary policy has to pursue in order to prevent deflation cycles. It's a bit "arcane", honestly. But that is what the world wide target is, and I'm personally only interested in steering my ship, not in understanding the freaking sea (which is enough).
That the current inflation rates are too high is easily understandable.
edit: the 2% is a value that follows out of decades of experience. It's a trial-and-error game. There is no theory behind it that suggests this value as a natural constant. Capitalism is a trial-and-error game that cannot be avoided.
Last edited by swabian; February 14, 2023 at 03:07 PM.
Russia:
According to the results of January 2023, the federal budget was executed with a deficit of 1.76 trillion rubles, follows from the preliminary estimate of the Ministry of Finance. Revenues amounted to almost 1.4 trillion rubles, which is 35% lower than in January last year.
Oil and gas revenues in annual terms decreased by 46% to 426 billion rubles. First of all, this is due to a decrease in quotations for Urals oil and a decrease in natural gas exports, the ministry explained. Non-oil and gas revenues also turned out to be lower than in January 2022 - by 28%, amounting to 931 billion rubles.
https://www.vedomosti.ru/economics/a...tsit-byudzheta
I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.
Sorry Swabian I do have an MS i economics and the 2% rule is BS. It is biased on who it hurts and helps and we better off with e 3-4% target. IN any case the Fed pursues with a massive hard on and rather forgets its full employment mandate very easily. But the real key thing is there is pretty much no basis to think excess US demand based on us consumers is driving world wide global inflation or was source for it spiking.
And US consumer demand had more or less nothing to do with causing the current state of affairsThat the current inflation rates are too high is easily understandable.
Last edited by conon394; February 14, 2023 at 05:13 PM.
IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites
'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.
Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.
Fair enough sorry if you think I put words in your mouth. That was not my intent.
Rather is just patently obvious we are experiencing world wide supply shock inflation first COVID exposing what a lode of fragile crap the modern world of just in time delivery was and than having a major war in Europe happen when you know hose were over and double down on that again the sh-t show that is modern world supply chains reality.
Then of course we had under regulated corporations quit willing to take profits from the situation.
But what we don't have is inflation in the US caused by anything Powell is going to fix by driving the US into recession to follow a fantasy unicorn number of 2% inflation. Some of the most prosperous time in US history and times with the least wealth and income inequality were the late 60s and early 70s and inflation was not some fixed 2% but often quite a bit higher by a point or 2 or 3.
Last edited by conon394; February 14, 2023 at 05:22 PM.
IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites
'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'
But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.
Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.
Has Russia won? I thought some posters were not posting again until they did?
The economic debate is an interesting part of the conflict. China is trying put pressure on the d US via multiple approaches, I read each balloon interception cost millions as the air defenceman has to reposition after each episode?
ATM the US is running multiple sideshow and ramping up directly against China as well, watch for trouble in HK and other places in the red Empire.
Hey has Majorie Taylor Greene blamed the Near Eastern earthquake on the Jews yet? Not a traitor but about China's best hope RN.
Governments and business of EU - main sponsor of putin agression.
Bloomberg: Since the invasion of Ukraine, Russian nuclear exports have surged, boosting the Kremlin's revenue and bolstering its hold on a new generation of global buyers as the US and its allies evade sanctions on the industry.
Exclusive trade data compiled by Britain's Royal United Services Institute shows sales of Russian nuclear fuel and technology overseas have risen by more than 20% in 2022. Procurement by EU Member States reached the highest level in three years. From Egypt and Iran to China and India, business is booming.
Rosatom supplies about a fifth of the enriched uranium needed for 92 reactors in the US. In Europe, the company is relied upon by utilities that generate electricity for 100 million people. NATO member countries, including Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, continued to buy fuel from Rosatom last year amid calls from Ukraine to stop trading.
Europeans, stop trade with putin s regime! Stop finance stalinists and homo soveticus such ludicus and stario!
Last edited by Peresvet; February 14, 2023 at 11:39 PM.
I am Russian and I hate putin and war. Stop war in Ukraine.
Poland's economic growth is predicted to slow to 0.9% this year, then pick up again next year. Certainly, the post-Covid recovery has been threatened by inflation and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but 0.9% does not a recession make. Stario is consistently untruthful.
IN PATROCINIVM SVB MARENOSTRUM
Meanwhile the 155 th russian Marine Brigade has been wiped out at Vuhledar.
Its the third time in this war, that this brigade must have been restaffed.
Putin's marine brigade of 5,000 men is all but destroyed in brutal battle | Daily Mail Online
Destroyed tanks of the brigade at Vuhledar:
Ukraine Weapons Tracker auf Twitter: „#Ukraine: At least 31 vehicles lost - the aftermath of the Russian attack on Vuhledar, #Donetsk Oblast. 13 Russian tanks (mostly T-72B3), 12 BMP-1/BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 MT-LB, an IMR combat engineering vehicle and others were destroyed or damaged and abandoned. ⏬ https://t.co/FdZmLtn4ay“ / Twitter
Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; February 15, 2023 at 02:51 AM.
Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
And tomorrow you'll be on your way
Don't give a damn about what other people say
Because tomorrow is a brand-new day
Europe can't stop trade w Russia; they are dependent on Russia.
And although you are not quite there yet, you are atleast starting to figure this out...
I am looking forward to reading the posting of the pro Ukranian folx (most of you here), when you finally come to the realisation Ukraine has lost this war 🤣
Last edited by Stario; February 15, 2023 at 04:37 AM.
NATO warns of donor ammunition shortages
It is one thing to offer full humanitarian support to Ukraine, but quite another to go on a military escalation in support of the Kiev government, largely in the wake of a war support agenda dictated by Zelensky.NATO's Jens Stoltenberg said Ukraine was using ammunition faster than NATO members could produce it…We see how they are sending more troops, more weapons, more capabilities.
The alternative path followed with the abandonment of the negotiations was to support Kiev militarily, without involving NATO directly on the ground. The assumption underlying this position seems to me unrealistic and even cruel. Unrealistic because the idea that Ukraine, with material support from NATO, will be able to defeat Russia alone does not withstand a minimal objective analysis of the relationship of forces between the two countries.
Moreover, this implicit underestimation of Russia's military capabilities is in total contradiction with the flimsy argument used by many supporters of this military support, according to which, if Russia is not stopped, Moscow will continue the war to the West.
Cruel, in that although it will weaken Russia - as Lloyd Austin has defined as one of the US objectives - it will still entail a huge price for Ukraine, paid in lives, destruction, and loss of territory.
This is a war that could have been diplomatically avoided if the European countries, which share a historical neighborhood with Russia, had had the maturity and courage to counter the U.S. obstinacy, never abandoned since the Budapest Summit in 2008 to integrate Ukraine into NATO, despite Russian reservations and successive warnings that this was an unacceptable security mistake. After the war began, the wisest course would have been to diplomatically halt hostilities, leaving the territorial issue for future European security negotiations. Let’s keep in mind that there are examples of imperfect peace: remember that there is still no peace treaty between the two Koreas; the Golan Heights separate Israel and Syria, two countries technically still in a state of war.
Instead of intensifying diplomatic measures, we give the Ukrainian government and its people the idea that in the long run they will win the war, without talks, negotiations, compromises and the formulation of guarantees that Russia's security will not be threatened by the installation of certain weapons in countries close to its territory. For peace to be achieved, the crisis must be well managed, which requires talks and diplomatic action. If the two opponents can present proposals in which there is no humiliation, peace can be achieved, otherwise the crisis could degenerate into war.
A large part of the huge financial support to Ukraine consists of paying defense industries, especially American ones, for the weapons that are given to Kiev. We know, however, the astronomical profits these industries make and the advantage they have gained from prolonging wars.
Unfortunately, in our/western political circles it seems to be underestimated that every time the military pyre raises the level of hostilities by one degree, it increases not only the number of casualties but also the unthinkable but very real risk of slipping into the twilight zone of full-scale nuclear confrontation. The warmongering brio of most of the written opinion evokes the sinister European enthusiasm in the first weeks of August 1914.
This paper estimates the consequences of different scenarios of a nuclear war. Even a small nuclear war threatens food security - Nature
Public awareness of 'nuclear winter' is too low given current risks
Paul Ingram is Paul Ingram is senior research associate at Cambridge University’s Centre for the Study of Existential Risk. He says, “We have to consider how Russia is perceiving the war and to what extent it would view defeat as an existential threat. In order to prevent the worst outcomes, we need to draw the Russians into negotiation and be prepared to compromise.”The survey, conducted online on 25 January 2023, asked 3,000 participants – half in the UK, half in the US – to self-report on a sliding scale whether they felt they knew a lot about “nuclear winter”, and if they had heard about it from:
- Contemporary media or culture, of which 3.2% in the UK and 7.5% in the US said they had.
- Recent academic studies, of which 1.6% in the UK and 5.2% in the US claimed they had.
- Beliefs held during the 1980s, of which 5.4% in the UK and 9% in the US said they still recalled.
The survey also presented all participants with fictional media reports from the near future (dated July 2023) relaying news of nuclear attacks by Russia on Ukraine, and vice versa, to gauge support in the UK and US for western retaliation. In the event of a Russian nuclear attack on Ukraine, fewer than one in five people surveyed in both countries supported in-kind retaliation, with men more likely than women to back nuclear reprisal: 20.7% (US) and 24.4% (UK) of men compared to 14.1% (US) and 16.1% (UK) of women.
The survey used infographics summarising nuclear winter effects laid out in a recent study led by Rutgers University (published by Nature in August 2022). Half the survey sample in each country (750 in the UK and US) were shown the infographics before they read the fictional news of nuclear strikes, while the other half – a control group – were not.
Support for nuclear retaliation was lower by 16% in the US and 13% in the UK among participants shown the “nuclear winter” infographics than among the control group. This effect was more significant for those supporting the parties of the US President and UK Government. Support for nuclear retaliation was lower by 33% among UK Conservative Party voters and 36% among US Democrat voters when participants were briefly exposed to recent nuclear winter research.
Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
Charles Péguy
Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
Thomas Piketty