Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

Ukraine's much talked about counter-offensive is apparently imminent: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65725004

Danilov is correct that the stakes here are very high and Ukraine cannot fail, should this counter-offensive fail the repercussions could be severe, especially if you keep in mind there is already concern among Ukraine's backers both over the delayed offensive and Ukraine's denied, but obvious, backing of attacks within Russia proper:

He warned that Ukraine's government had "no right to make a mistake" on the decision because this was an "historic opportunity" that "we cannot lose".

[reavertm]

Meanwhile Russia issued new demands. Not only "accepting new territorial order", never joining NATO, but also never joining EU, and accepting Russian as state language 😂
What else, maybe mandatory blowjobs to Russians given by Ukrainian women?
Surely new demands are showing Russia is seeking peace and "we should engage in peace talks".

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Never heard of the addition of an official language being used as a demand during peace negotiations before.. maybe they should also demand that Russia Today be added as a TV channel, and the sale of Muscovite Vodka. Or maybe demand that all future presidents be named Vladimir?

[conon394]

Ukraine's much talked about counter-offensive is apparently imminent: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-65725004

Danilov is correct that the stakes here are very high and Ukraine cannot fail, should this counter-offensive fail the repercussions could be severe, especially if you keep in mind there is already concern among Ukraine's backers both over the delayed offensive and Ukraine's denied, but obvious, backing of attacks within Russia proper:
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Again I suppose the leadership of North Vietnam can be happy it was not being told if the Tet offensive is military failure we (USSR And China) are out. Geez it just hardly one year and people are having cold feet grow a pair. OK so maybe Europe has reason to be cautious but the US man we flushed how much down the toilet of Astan for something the locals clearly did not want and how political capital for a reckless war in Iraq. Here is a could bet where the locals seem all in and so far it has been cheep.

So what if Ukraine strikes Russia - Last I checked they been invaded twice no so they are supposed to stop at the border? I mean really?

[Alastor]

@conon394
Don't shoot the messenger, I'm not really expressing much of an opinion there, simply relaying (and agreeing with) what I gather from the (accepted) news.

Do keep in mind though, this isn't the Vietnam era, much less the Korean war era or WW2 era. Nowadays things move fast and people want quick wins. Very few actors play the long game. The political ruling class of the EU is most definitely not such an actor. Unfortunately for us. I rather doubt the US ruling class is much better either. Though inertia and a far better established power base does favour them greatly.

[conon394]

@conon394
Don't shoot the messenger, I'm not really expressing much of an opinion there, simply relaying (and agreeing with) what I gather from the (accepted) news.

Do keep in mind though, this isn't the Vietnam era, much less the Korean war era or WW2 era. Nowadays things move fast and people want quick wins. Very few actors play the long game. The political ruling class of the EU is most definitely not such an actor. Unfortunately for us. I rather doubt the US ruling class is much better either. Though inertia and a far better established power base does favour them greatly.

Fair enough no shooting.

You right in that a lot weight and verbage is being tossed about for some quick resolution that seems in reality detached from the scale of the conflict and what leaders on both sides are invested in. I know Ludicus can keep finding people who want negotiations but the fact is Putin seems pretty confident he can gut out his more maximum aims and he and his mouth peices keep reiterating them and its pretty clear nobody governing Ukraine now will accept that.

In terms of long game its hard to say. Obviously its pretty clear Biden is in for a long game but that is contingent on 2024. The UK seems also to be all in and willing to be the red line mover. Also given that Europe has chewed and swallowed and survived the gas cut off not sure if you can say a second winter will have the kind of impact Putin was likely hoping for last year.

In any case it strikes me that unless Europe counts differently. June 21 is the first day of summer so a 'spring' offensive still has 4 weeks before its late.

[Alastor]

In any case it strikes me that unless Europe counts differently. June 21 is the first day of summer so a 'spring' offensive still has 4 weeks before its late.

Indeed we do. There are at least 3 4-season reckonings. The astronomical, which the US and thus much of the internet follows, but also the solar and the meteorological reckonings. Sizeable parts of Europe, including crucially Ukraine and Russia, follow the meteorological reckoning. According to that Ukraine has 3 more days for that Spring offensive.

PS Interesting piece of trivia, Australia also follows the meteorological reckoning. Though unsurprisingly inverted. So with that in mind, Ukraine's spring offensive already happened, with success, last September.

[conon394]

OK fine but were I a lawyer I still say that gives Ukraine between 3-25 days day before they considered late since nobody explicitly defined 'spring' in the contract. But really it does seem like spring was on the wet side and really a long-term forecast is only no showing a relative dry series of weeks for operations.

However it still seems to since the data pops still seems to show that really its just in the last month Ukraine has real depth of equipment and newly trained brigades and significant western AA replacements I not feeling like some rush spring deadline is critical.

[Alastor]

OK fine but were I a lawyer I still say that gives Ukraine between 3-25 days day before they considered late since nobody explicitly defined 'spring' in the contract. But really it does seem like spring was on the wet side and really a long-term forecast is only no showing a relative dry series of weeks for operations.

However it still seems to since the data pops still seems to show that really its just in the last month Ukraine has real depth of equipment and newly trained brigades and significant western AA replacements I not feeling like some rush spring deadline is critical.

What I was insinuating with my Australia comment was that since Ukraine made that pledge, what they consider spring should be what goes. And yes, I have heard this spring was more wet than expected. I have also heard that this was the result of a Russian-driven cloud seeding campaign, which I found rather puzzling.

Whatever the case, the way things seem to be developing it is rather doubtful we will see a serious offensive (from either side) before July. By then, it will definitely be too late to call it a spring offensive.

[PointOfViewGun]

What happened to the massive offensive told by Stario supposedly started by Russia months ago?

[Cyclops]

The stuff around Russia being out of play is wild. First up its nonsense, this is a war and in war you strike enemy asset: there's a bunch on international war about enemy units in neutral territory, internment, acts of war in third party nations etc, and Z think Ukraine is fine here.

Russia has put some work into muddying this, with the "its not a war" narrative and stating red lines like "no invading Russia", but they haven't backed up a single red line. I guess they worked well last time?

...PS Interesting piece of trivia, Australia also follows the meteorological reckoning. Though unsurprisingly inverted...

...now listen here you...

... So with that in mind, Ukraine's spring offensive already happened, with success, last September.

[speaks into cuff mike] "Alastor is onto us, operation kangaroo invades is blown, I repeat blown. Shut it down!"

Jokes aside thanks again for the info, I had never realised anyone measured from the equinox, for me 1 June has always been the first day of (real) winter. 1 March was the start of the Etruscan (and therefore Roman) calendar year, and also the start of spring, I think this is the most natural traditional reading.

excursis

Seasons in Australia are wild. Indigenous systems span 3-4 climatic zones. Up north (near the equator) they have 2 broad seasons (wet/hot/monsoon and dry/cooler). There's been an attempt to synthesise some of the local systems which recognised up to 6 seasonal periods (which reflect food availability, stuff like migrating moths and seed types that were seasonally edible). Useful for the farmers regionally but try getting the city people like me to acknowledge it "wah I want my summer holidays".

There are some moves happening for Ukraine, with the bombings and false flag err insurgents invading, but most likely the spring offensive is a bust. Could be maskirovka but more likely SNAFUs mean it had to be delayed, coz war is hard.

[conon394]

What I was insinuating with my Australia comment was that since Ukraine made that pledge, what they consider spring should be what goes. And yes, I have heard this spring was more wet than expected. I have also heard that this was the result of a Russian-driven cloud seeding campaign, which I found rather puzzling.

Whatever the case, the way things seem to be developing it is rather doubtful we will see a serious offensive (from either side) before July. By then, it will definitely be too late to call it a spring offensive.

My guess pledge or no likely the really deciding factor is building up 155mm and 105 mm shells and things like stingers and javelins (and similar weapons from other NATO countries). Its clear NATO simply lacked both a sigiot of surge production capacity and the stockpiles that an offensive will consume particularly with no air superiority. On the latter MANPADS the west dropped a ton and fast I am thinking longer term post war analysis will show Russia faced probably an unprecedented volume of top tier MANPAD attacks well above what any previous major war involved along with what was a solid stock pile of legacy USSR stuff that Ukraine had or got handed over quickly by ex PACT countries.

But I really still reiterate its likely artillery and probably artillery that can be foward targeted that is the kicker. Ukraine simply can't do the NATO play book and call in air support. Stocks of things like the GLSDB will be critical in providing flexible guided fires and those were just only what proto type available at the beginning of the year.

[Kyriakos]

Not that it will change anything, but it is impressive that senator Graham is foaming at the mouth and gleefully saying that dead russians are the best thing US money bought

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Not that it will change anything, but it is impressive that senator Graham is foaming at the mouth and gleefully saying that dead russians are the best thing US money bought

If you'd watch the full unedited video you'd see that those two statements are unrelated.

What happened to the massive offensive told by Stario supposedly started by Russia months ago?

What do you mean? they took 1 town. Another thousand or so massive offensives and Ukraine is done for!

[Kyriakos]

Is the glee in his voice while speaking of so many dead russians also unrelated? ^^
Guy is a toon.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

I'm sure people during ww2 responded with the same kind of glee to German soldiers dying.

[Kyriakos]

^Can't escalate when you already are in world war.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Frankly, fear of escalation is not a legitimate justification for allowing fascist dictatorships to aggressively expand and conquer their peaceful neighbours. Appeasement wasn't a valid policy then, and it isn't now.

[Cyclops]

^Can't escalate when you already are in world war.

To be fair fear of escalation meant the WAllies let Hitler rearm.

That and the hope Nazism and Communism would codestruxt.

[conon394]

^Can't escalate when you already are in world war.

I have not noticed one.