Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

Everyone knows they are human, really, really evil humans, but humans either way. Must feel good defending genocidal manians though, because you missed the point of Russians(the people itself not being evil) but their leaders are. But you rushed to defend their leaders ignoring the people, so we know you are actually trying to defend, Putin and his cronies and not the Russian people. All in the name of "neutral"(yes very neutral, just as I'm the emporor of all mankind) "non-simplistic" worldview.

I think you have proven my point more than enough already. I mean you may continue if you want, I'm just letting you know so you don't get all spent for nothing.

[fkizz]

As for Russia not getting a cent, that's ok, keep your cents, I'm sure they'd rather take the billions they are making selling their crude instead. You see, what you need to understand is that Russia can't be a pariah-state on the world stage just because the west wants it so. The west is not the world. As long as the rest of the world, including such important states as China and India are happy to be doing business with Russia, Russia will not have to worry about these cents of yours. And as long as Russia has the goods, there will be buyers. Thanks in no small part to Turkey, a NATO member, those buyers will also include the EU, for a while at least.

It's Imperium-Renaissance experiment is getting in the way of the two nations with the most commerce, US and China. Sure Russia can sell this and that and keep going for now, but long term, when provisions are scarce, it's doubtful if China will find it interesting to have its gigantic investment in Silk Road delayed even more years, that will lead to a needless rise in upkeep costs, that will reach some point where cheap gas cannot pay the difference anymore.

[Alastor]

It's Imperium-Renaissance experiment is getting in the way of the two nations with the most commerce, US and China. Sure Russia can sell this and that and keep going for now, but long term, when provisions are scarce, it's doubtful if China will find it interesting to have its gigantic investment in Silk Road delayed even more years, that will lead to a needless rise in upkeep costs, that will reach some point where cheap gas cannot pay the difference anymore.

"Long term"? "Doubtful"? "When provisions are scarce"? It's rather obvious that trying to make such predictions is not particularly useful. But your post doesn't logically follow either, or at least I don't see how it does. You are correct to say that China wouldn't want to risk their trade relations. China is overexposed to global trade, unlike Russia. Sanctions like those imposed on Russia would have crippled China. On the other hand it would have crippled all of us too. So whatever leverage you may think we hold over China, China holds over us too. It's MAD, but for the economy. If China wants to do business with Russia, we can do little to stop them, at least in the short term. In the long term, in a different world, I guess many things are possible, even the improbable, but let's discuss that then.

[fkizz]

"Long term"? "Doubtful"? "When provisions are scarce"? It's rather obvious that trying to make such predictions is not particularly useful. But your post doesn't logically follow either, or at least I don't see how it does.

PRC needs to continue to show its citizens it has the ability to raise standards of living in order to have peace at home.

You are correct to say that China wouldn't want to risk their trade relations. China is overexposed to global trade, unlike Russia. Sanctions like those imposed on Russia would have crippled China. On the other hand it would have crippled all of us too. So whatever leverage you may think we hold over China, China holds over us too. It's MAD, but for the economy. If China wants to do business with Russia, we can do little to stop them, at least in the short term. In the long term, in a different world, I guess many things are possible, even the improbable, but let's discuss that then.

In commerce affairs it's not as much (or shouldn't be, some want it to be that way, no guarantees) about win/lose scenarios as in the rest, the One Belt One Road Iniciative had land transportation to from East Asia to Western Europe, using the final transports in.. Istanbul and Ukraine.

At this point China already has released 12 points for peace as official statement, even if only media optics.

[Cyclops]

Let me help you with that. Russians are evil, Ukrainians are good. Evil people murder and rape others to death, good people liberate and snuggle them lovingly to death. Understand now?

Sigh... as long as people keep seeing the world this simplistically, we are going nowhere.

I think Russia has definitely brought the genocide side of things closer to the surface. We let the predecessor USSR ethnically cleanse Germans after WW2 because it suited the West's agenda, and again in Kosovo the Serbs got the knife. perhaps that was a result of kicking things off in the Yugoslav breakdown? They weren't Robinson Crusoe but they were the most able to realise plans for ethnic cleansing.

Russian efforts in Crimea and now in eastern Ukraine are likely trying to create demographic fait accompli for the negotiation phase. The West is negating this by massacring Russian soldiers with efficient use of surplus materiel. I think the war profiteers are outstripping the war criminals at this stage.

Maybe Ukraine wouldn't have done so much genocide as they are likely to if they now win? Thats a somewhat arcane argument, its simpler to attribute blame to who crossed what line. The US kicked in the Russians teeth diplomatically, and the Russians decided to make Ukraine pay. Is the exchange currently worth it to anyone outside the US? They are winning right now I have no doubt.

[Alastor]

Is the exchange currently worth it to anyone outside the US? They are winning right now I have no doubt.

Indeed, I remember writing sth similar a while back. The situation currently is: the US is winning, Russia is losing and Ukraine has already lost. Oh and don't even get me started on the EU and Germany in particular. But then again as Lord Ismay once said, the purpose of NATO is: to keep the Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down. So working as designed I guess.

[StarDreamer]

Maybe Ukraine wouldn't have done so much genocide as they are likely to if they now win? Thats a somewhat arcane argument, its simpler to attribute blame to who crossed what line. The US kicked in the Russians teeth diplomatically, and the Russians decided to make Ukraine pay. Is the exchange currently worth it to anyone outside the US? They are winning right now I have no doubt.

A) It is an assumption that Ukraine would engage in genocide if they win, there is no basis for this view. It quite clearly comes from what those saying would do were they in Ukraines position.

B) Once the war started, any option but Russian losing was the absolute worst case for all of Europe, so there should be a significant effort to ensure the only truly acceptable outcome: Russian losing.

C) Sure efforts could have been made before the war started, but Russia was demanding a sphere that streched both into NATO and EU, it was quite clearly unacceptable. Anyone thinking that their imperilistic demands were in any way acceptable are out of their ing minds. If Russia wants a "buffer-zone", then a demilitarized zone inside Russia should be created so they can have their buffer-zone in their own damn country.

[Laser101]

A) It is an assumption that Ukraine would engage in genocide if they win, there is no basis for this view. It quite clearly comes from what those saying would do were they in Ukraines position.

The basis is historical precedent, for instance atrocities against Serbs in Kosovo and Krajina during the Yugoslav Wars, or the expulsion and massacre of ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland and Germany's former eastern territories at the end of WWII.

The issue in this case is how a Ukrainian national identity increasingly rooted in rejection and hatred of everything Russian (which it is hard to fault them for) reacts with a population that is dominated by ethnic Russians.