Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Sar1n]

Sounds like you downplaying Germany, one of the biggest players in EU, prostrating itself to Putin while maintaining only symbolic help to Kiev proxy. Then we have several collapsed governments, including UK and Italy. You so far have failed to provide any counter-evidence, other then very vague gainsaying.

...while at the same time, Germany supplies Mars II launchers (bigger, slower brother of famous HIMARS) and commits to produce 100 SPGs for Ukraine, Boris is likely to be succeeded by another warhawk and Italy always did what Italy does best, that is nothing.

[conon394]

Sounds like you downplaying Germany, one of the biggest players in EU, prostrating itself to Putin while maintaining only symbolic help to Kiev proxy

Sure Germany may have been slow on big ticket Military items. But do run over a list of over all aid - its scale of humanitarian and financial is very large indeed on the list of equipment that is not say SP artillery much of which is just as important as some of those headline item things(*). They are also back filling the Czechs, Greece and Poland (although Poland would like more but still)

Then we have several collapsed governments, including UK and Italy.

The UK government did not collapse. Boris Johnson was forced out by his own party. Boris also was forced out for domestic reasons that had nothing to do with the war. Italy I suppose maybe the war had some impact but its Italy and even for Italy the collation was extremely weak.

You so far have failed to provide any counter-evidence, other then very vague gainsaying.

Given the effort you have put into yours I did not see the point.


* reminds I've seen more than a few analysts point out the really apparent lack of night vision gear in the Regular Russian infantry and vehicles. It might helpful to really push that kinda thing for Ukraine to given them edge at the infantry level.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Then we have several collapsed governments, including UK

Tell me you watch exclusively Kremlin propaganda without actually telling me.

Still waiting for your reply on "muh 8 years of donbass((((".

[Heathen Hammer]

...while at the same time, Germany supplies Mars II launchers (bigger, slower brother of famous HIMARS) and commits to produce 100 SPGs for Ukraine, Boris is likely to be succeeded by another warhawk and Italy always did what Italy does best, that is nothing.

Dude, its a frontline that could stretch from Canada border to Mexico, to put it into perspective. Tens of thousands of vehicles are used by both sides. 100 NATO vehicles won't tip the balance, even several hundreds wouldn't.
Not to mention that even if they could replace every Ukrainian vehicle with NATO equivalent, it matters less when it is crewed by unwilling drafted conscripts that don't want to be there.

Sure Germany may have been slow on big ticket Military items. But do run over a list of over all aid - its scale of humanitarian and financial is very large indeed on the list of equipment that is not say SP artillery much of which is just as important as some of those headline item things(*). They are also back filling the Czechs, Greece and Poland (although Poland would like more but still)

Yeah, I'm sure that Western officials that were dumb enough to trust Zelensky regime with liquid cash are happy about new mansions, escorts and exotic cars that will help the war effort lol.

[conon394]

Not to mention that even if they could replace every Ukrainian vehicle with NATO equivalent, it matters less when it is crewed by unwilling drafted conscripts that don't want to be there.

I sorry I missed the bit where Ukraine has NKVD-esq battalions ready to shoot deserters. Maybe you have a link?

Dude, its a frontline that could stretch from Canada border to Mexico, to put it into perspective. Tens of thousands of vehicles are used by both sides. 100 NATO vehicles won't tip the balance, even several hundreds wouldn't.

100 vehicles... what?

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/0...-supplied.html

Deliveries of all types Both NATO and Ex Pact stuff far exceed 100. And there are gaps in the list for example it unclear how many PT91s Poland has delivered. Or the 40 leopards Spain is sending to Latvia so their troops there can train Ukrainians on their use.

Yeah, I'm sure that Western officials that were dumb enough to trust Zelensky regime with liquid cash are happy about new mansions, escorts and exotic cars that will help the war effort lol.

So not actually going to look up the scale of Financial aid to the Ukraine and note how large a share is from Germany than - just a nothing burger of an insult at Zelensk ?

[Mithradates]

...Tens of thousands of vehicles are used by both sides. 100 NATO vehicles won't tip the balance, even several hundreds wouldn't.

Russia's Shelling of Ukraine Before and After HIMARS
On the left is a map of Russian shelling on July 8, on the right after the destruction of Russian warehouses on July 12

[Heathen Hammer]

So not actually going to look up the scale of Financial aid to the Ukraine and note how large a share is from Germany than - just a nothing burger of an insult at Zelensk ?

You are conflating what Germany promised with what it will actually do. I recall Germany promising to double down on sanctions, but in actuality German government reversed that policy and bent the knee to Kremlin.
Actual policy change is more important then vague promises.

Russia's Shelling of Ukraine Before and After HIMARS

And the source of that map is "just trust me bro" from NATO or Ukraine itself?

[conon394]

And the source of that map is "just trust me bro" from NATO or Ukraine itself?

One imagines its based of the NASA FIRMS data at its base.

You are conflating what Germany promised with what it will actually do. I recall Germany promising to double down on sanctions, but in actuality German government reversed that policy and bent the knee to Kremlin. Actual policy change is more important then vague promises.

OK so please dispute the following. Bending the Knee??? Really?? You must thinking of Orban.

• €1.83 billion in bilateral aid since 2014[202][203]

• approx. €4 billion via the EU in the form of grants and loans since 2014.[202]

• €240 million via the EU in loans in 2022.[202]

• Loan of over €150 million via KfW in April 2022.[204]

• €425 million via the 'Stand Up For Ukraine' pledging campaign and an additional 70 million for medical aid via the EU[205]

• Over €1 billion additional military aid to Ukraine for weapons purchases in April 2022[206]

[Heathen Hammer]

Whataboutism much? Orban never promised to be Zelensky's sugar daddy in the first place, Germany did. The point is that Western leaders abandon Ukraine despite its promises when maintaining support stops being politically and likely fiscally expedient and Germany is a perfect example for that.

[conon394]

The point is that Western leaders abandon Ukraine despite its promises when maintaining support stops being politically and likely fiscally expedient and Germany is a perfect example for that.

How are western leaders abandoning ukraine, you never actually answer a direct question you move on to some other vague statement. So is NASA doctoring their footage?

[Heathen Hammer]

How are western leaders abandoning ukraine, you never actually answer a direct question you move on to some other vague statement.

I literally posted links to examples earlier in this thread. You replied to the posts containing those links and engaged with their content already. Bad faith much?

So is NASA doctoring their footage?

I don't know what footage you are talking about given how all we got is a map with some red dots on it. Having said that, conflict of interest is a thing and I wouldn't try China's take on this either.

[Sar1n]

I literally posted links to examples earlier in this thread. You replied to the posts containing those links and engaged with their content already. Bad faith much?

No, all you did was to post tidbit about a powerless former politician sucking up to Putin and one minister trying to play it safe.

[Heathen Hammer]

"Powerless former politician" after whose visit, Germany makes a deal with Russia in Russia's favor. I get it, its hard to cope with the fact that despite all the anti-Russian posturing, EU governments reluctantly bend the knee for cheaper gas, but hey, that's life.

[Coughdrop addict]

As I see it, there a basically three types of Kremlin propaganda Russian trolls and disinformation agents are tasked with spreading. You can usually tell how bad things are going on the eastern front by which message is being pushed at the moment:

Stage 1: Boasting. This is default Russia. Russia and Putin constantly feel inadequate, because while publicly they deny it they are very aware their country cannot measure up to the west in cultural power, economic strength, or military force. In an effort to soothe their wounded ego they brag constantly about Russia's "greatness", "manliness", it's God-given civilizing mission, being "the third Rome", and other nonsense that convinces no one.

Stage 2: Chest-thumping. This is the stage where the lies start getting just a little bit more unbelievable, but this stage is also interesting because it can be broken down into three parts.

A) Lies of intimidation IE "Russia is a mighty empire and economic powerhouse that will easily crush the weak, effeminate west."

B) Lies of accomplishment. This is when things start to get really ludicrous. Once they think the stage A lies haven’t had the desired effect they then start trying to list of all of the "great accomplishments" of Russia. This stage is almost never successful because as anyone can point out, all of these supposed accomplishments happened under the czar or the Soviet Union and so most living Russians had nothing to do with them. So this is when they change tactics to stage C.

C) Lies about others. This is when they start going on about how corrupt, evil, stupid, and just plain bad everyone outside of Russia is. Usually this will be about the people and leaders of the west, but it can include non-western nations like Ukraine Russia is currently in conflict with, whole segments of humanity like gay and trans people everywhere, liberals, Muslims, Jews, and pretty much any group because who it is isn't really all that important. They will blame them for all of Russia's problems, project all of Russia's failings onto them, and eventually trot out their gold standard accusation, pedophilia.

Stage 3: Claim victimhood. If things are going badly within Russia and none of the above is having the desired effect, they immediately become the victim. They will toss around accusations of "Russiophobia", having a cold war mentality, wanting to harm the Russian people, ect. They are completely unaware that this makes them sound like a bratty misbehaving child accusing adults of being mean IE "You hate me! You're picking on me!"

[conon394]

I don't know what footage you are talking about given how all we got is a map with some red dots on it. Having said that, conflict of interest is a thing and I wouldn't try China's take on this either.

You can try googling it. It not that hard.

Look up NASA and FIRMS


Here is a like with some data similar to what was posted.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

or from ISW

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/st...90826993508352

I literally posted links to examples earlier in this thread. You replied to the posts containing those links and engaged with their content already. Bad faith much?

Post Number?

"Powerless former politician" after whose visit, Germany makes a deal with Russia in Russia's favor. I get it, its hard to cope with the fact that despite all the anti-Russian posturing, EU governments reluctantly bend the knee for cheaper gas, but hey, that's life.

I don't need to cope with anything I'm not German. Also again I love you bring up sigularity and now its the EU...

Germany is indeed in a bad way. It fell for the comfort myth that natural gas is some kind of clean energy bridge to Green energy. Its not, or a least its not if you remember to factor in all the methane leaked in the extraction production process. And it true Germany rather liked it some cheap natural gas from Russia and did not aggressively take steps like Poland to disengage from Russia. Also it in an utterly bizarre decision killed its nuclear power generation . Really quite bizarre I have no ideal what the weird German angst is over that.

[Vanoi]

"Powerless former politician" after whose visit, Germany makes a deal with Russia in Russia's favor. I get it, its hard to cope with the fact that despite all the anti-Russian posturing, EU governments reluctantly bend the knee for cheaper gas, but hey, that's life.

So Germany makes a deal and pisses off the rest of the EU, NATO, US, and other Western allies all in exchange for cheaper gas? I get that you really want Russia to win in this but Germany isn't going to shoot itself in the foot and risk diplomatic relations and even possible sanctions with the rest of it allies.

Russia is just going to have to hope the EU goes soft by next year. Meanwhile the EU nations continue to send weapons to kill Russian soldiers. All is good.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Yep, you are right HH, we are already producing salutes for our new overlord: Czar Putin I.

Norway helps The Chancellery

Manufacturer of "Gepard" ammunition found

Germany wants to deliver the first "Gepard" tanks to Ukraine this month. So far, however, there is a lack of ammunition for this. According to a report, the problem has now been solved. The federal government is already working on ammunition deliveries for other weapons.

Germany has solved a problem with arms deliveries to Ukraine, as reported by "Spiegel". After weeks of efforts, the Chancellery, together with the military department in Norway, found a manufacturer who can produce additional ammunition for the "Gepard" anti-aircraft tank. Ammunition supply has been a problem so far, with just under 60,000 rounds of the special 35mm projectiles left for the system.

Now the production of fresh ammunition could quickly begin. According to the report, government circles said the Norwegian manufacturer's ammunition should be tested next week at the Bundeswehr firing range in Putlos. Germany wants to start delivering a total of 30 "Gepard" anti-aircraft tanks from industrial stocks in July; they are to be used to protect cities and other so-called critical infrastructure.

The Greens praised the efforts. "While some only moaned and bad-mouthed the delivery of the 'Gepard' because of ammunition challenges, the federal government has actively solved the problem," security politician Agnieszka Brugger told the magazine. In this sense, given the very high losses in Ukraine, things must continue. Brugger was certain that deliveries would continue to be made behind the scenes.

According to information from the "Spiegel", the federal government is currently trying to organize deliveries of ammunition for the artillery systems of Russian design that are already in use in Ukraine. In addition, German armaments companies could restart a closed factory in Romania and produce larger quantities of 152mm ammunition there. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has recently appealed several times that his troops urgently need fresh artillery ammunition in order to be able to withstand the Russian invaders.


Ukraine-Krieg: Hersteller für fehlende "Gepard"-Munition gefunden - Wehrressort in Norwegen - n-tv.de

Main Problem is for german weapon firms, they had reduced their production capabilities the last years, which they now must increase again, which logically needs time. So they must prioritize who's next Bundeswehr/Nato allies or Ukraine.

So a production line in Romania would perfectly make sense.

[Heathen Hammer]

So Germany makes a deal and pisses off the rest of the EU, NATO, US, and other Western allies all in exchange for cheaper gas? I get that you really want Russia to win in this but Germany isn't going to shoot itself in the foot and risk diplomatic relations and even possible sanctions with the rest of it allies.

Russia is just going to have to hope the EU goes soft by next year.

It is already going soft. And EU is investing in Russia's war effort by buying resources from Russia on Russian terms. German FM literally said, in the link I posted above, that they will acquiesce Russia to avoid riots due to energy crisis that the sanction maintenance would cause.
I get it, you really didn't want the globalist anti-Russian coalition to collapse so easily, but it did from minimal pressure. Plus your vegetable-in-chief will likely fold too, since China is backing Russia and a lot of political/military/intelligence brass in US are Chinese assets.

Yep, you are right HH, we are already producing salutes for our new overlord: Czar Putin I.

Your taxes will go to buy Russian resources, and will be spent by Russia on its war effort in Ukraine, so technically it will be you who will fund building pro-Russian statues.

[conon394]

German FM literally said, in the link I posted above, that they will acquiesce Russia to avoid riots due to energy crisis that the sanction maintenance would cause.

Actually that is not really what she said and she walked that back in the speech. If had to guess I would say the real point is that Germany needs to maximize coal fired power now as a substitute for nature gas while Germany tries to build up its reserves.That got to a butter pill to swallow for the Greens. And or try shak up foot dragging on actually trying to see now with alacrity if the nuclear plants can be restarted rather just sorta saying might be hard might offend the greens.

It is already going soft. And EU is investing in Russia's war effort by buying resources from Russia on Russian terms.

That's sort of a non statement. For good or ill many European countries bet on for the nominal 'green' bump it (NG) got them and thus allowed them turn off coal or avoid icky nuclear which too many Europeans seem to have an irrational fear of. If most of Europe was like Poland had been heavily investing in non Russia sourced Natural gas and whose population is probably OK with surging coal to finish cutting ties to Russia. In that case than your statement would have some validity. But for the ones that did not there is no magic green lantern ring solution and they will have to buy Russian gas for now since you can't alter energy grid on a dime.

I get it, you really didn't want the globalist anti-Russian coalition to collapse so easily, but it did from minimal pressure

Seems fine right now not sure what you are talking about. In point the the post above about the Gepards #4797 makes that point. Running into the problem of Essential no ammo for them on hand (and what the Swiss blocking send hand transfers of much of what was around... Germany could just sat on their hands but they did not they found an ammo solution. That does not fit with your narrative. And they will be useful indeed since Ukrainians as proven very skillful with there soviet era AA kit (probably the most adroit use of it since since the 80s at least) the Russia Airforce has been driven to the deck as were. The Gepards will compliment the MANPADs filling out that area of coverage for Ukraine.

since China is backing Russia and a lot of political/military/intelligence brass in US are Chinese assets.

It really fun when you just make stuff up. Even better when you just ignore you errors like trying to tie the fall of Boris Johnson to the NATO support for Ukraine - which in fact almost saved him.

Look at the NASA FIRMS data yet any thoughts?

[Ludicus]

Suddenly, Lula da Silva's name is no longer on a list of personalities accused of promoting Russian propaganda. The Folha de S.Paulo newspaper asked the Kiev government about the case by email, but got no reply.
-----
"Publico" is considered a publication with high standards of journalism. It has the merit, which is rare, of regularly publishing articles in which the plurality of opinions, the freedom of expression (from the right to left) is assured. Here, for the time being, this is the case, says Manuel Ramos -Associate Professor with tenure at the Dept. of Anthropology and Senior Researcher of the Centre of International Studies, at ISCTE - University Institute of Lisbon. He is presently the head of the Central Library of African Studies.
This article, published in the Publico, does not fail to address the issue of freedom of expression, and draws a parallel between Ukrainian "marauders" and Portuguese medieval “pelourinhos”, a tool for justice and punishment, and addresses Zelensky's political U-turn. The links- (it’s my entire responsibility) have been added by me (see spoilers).Traduttori, traditori.

https://www.publico.pt/2022/07/27/opiniao/opiniao/marauders-2015041

It is remarkable, since the beginning of the international media coverage operation of the Ukraine war, how the correspondents of the numerous Western television and newspapers in Ukrainian cities have been silent on the very visible form of public punishment of the so-called marauders. On October 26, 2019, during a media visit to the battlefront in the Donbass, the newly elected President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelensky, engaged in a harsh exchange of words with Denys Yantar, a veteran of the Azov Battalion, in the village of Zolote in the Luhansk Oblast.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Video Zelensky threatened by Azov member Denys Yantar in 2019

The Battalion, which at that time was in the process of being incorporated into the regular territorial defense structure, launched the public campaign "No to capitulation", with the declared aim of sabotaging the incipient pacification initiatives between the Ukrainian government and the Donetsk and Luhansk insurgents.
The moment when Zelensky, appearing on camera for the first time in military uniform, pleaded with Yantar to lay down his arms was shown on Ukrainian national television, and caused a storm of comments and threats on the country's social networks.
Yantar had previously hinted before Zelensky that a rebellion was brewing if he did not give up on seeking negotiated solutions for an end to the fighting in the Donbass, the election promise that had secured him election months earlier.
This episode symbolically buried the so-called Minsk Accords and caused a 180-degree turn in Zelensky's political stance. Later, the Azov battalion eventually withdrew from Zolote and concentrated in Mariupol, but, as the then angry Western media did not fail to note, the war in the Donbass intensified dramatically.
Speeches by nationalists against the young President became increasingly inflammatory. On his YouTube channel, Andriy Biletsky, the leader of the Azov Battalion and its political branch, the National Corps, vowed to bring thousands of militants to Zolote if the President tried to retreat to the front line as planned. Sofia Fedyna, an MP from the European Solidarity Party, threatened the President with death. One could say that Zelensky's state of grace was over, but in fact it had never come to exist

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Ukrainian military volunteer faces search and criminal charges

On May 27, 2019, only a week after Zelensky's investiture in the Rada, Dmytro Yarosh, founder of the Right Sector and commander of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army, in an interview with Obozrevaltel, reaffirmed the thesis of the previous President, Petro Porochenko, that the Minsk Accords were not meant to be fulfilled, but to buy time and prepare the final offensive against the Donbass and Crimea, and that if the President did not agree with this plan and "betrayed Ukraine," he would not be dismissed but killed: "He will lose his life. He will be tied against a tree in Khreschatyk" (Kiev's main boulevard).

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Right Sector's Dmytro Yarosh Told 2019 Interview, 'Zelenskyy
Two years later, he becomes Former leader of Right Sector becomes advisor to to Commander-in-Chief of Ukrainian Armed Forces

"The richness of the meaning of this expression can easily go unnoticed by those who are not familiar with the specifics of the tradition of extra-judicial punishment - so-called popular justice - in Ukraine, and its progressive politicization in recent years. It is remarkable, since the beginning of the operation of international media coverage of the Ukraine war, how the correspondents of the numerous Western television and newspapers in Ukrainian cities have passed over in silence the very visible form of public punishment of the so-called marauders ("looters," "thieves").
Unless a journalist never leaves his hotel, he can hardly fail to come across examples of this practice, where people are tied to trees and poles with tape or, more recently, with cling film, their pants or skirts pulled down, their buttocks beaten with whips or sticks, and their faces painted with indelible green paint
Usually, this public punishment, applicable to both men and women, the elderly and teenagers, was mainly directed at thieves who took advantage of the absence of police to loot food or small consumer items. Since the use of the Russian language was banned in the country, and tensions against the inhabitants of the Donbass increased in intensity, this form of public punishment began to be directed against anyone suspected of being a Russophile, or simply anyone who was overheard, for example, talking on a cell phone in Russian.
If, originally, the punishment was practiced spontaneously by popular people to punish outcasts, from 2014 the nationalist militias adopted this form of punishment as a means of political persecution. The violence of the acts increased, and sadism was as if normalized. It is therefore not difficult to understand the meaning of Commander Yarosh's threatening words against Zelensky: the latter having been elected in part thanks to the vote of Ukraine's Russian-speaking populations, and being a Russian-speaker himself (as he admitted, he only learned to speak Ukrainian two years before his bid for the country's presidency), threatening to tie him to a tree on Kiev's main boulevard was a colorful way of identifying him as a potential traitor to the Ukrainian nationalist ideal.
The symbolism of tying someone to a tree or pole as punishment for an act of political treason has immense historical depth in the Ukrainian and Russian imaginaries. This is how, in 945 A.D., according to the Primary Chronicle of the Rus, Prince Igor of Kiev, husband of Olga, the patron saint of Ukraine, was punished and killed by the Drevilian Slavs in revolt against tax collection by the Kiev Rus.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Beautifully illustrated How Olga of Kiev Exacted Revenge

This episode - as well as the so-called revenge of Olga - being virtually unknown in the West, is, however, as normative information in Ukraine as the putative slap of Afonso Henriques to his mother. The current public punishment of marauders in Ukraine thus has the effect of ritual updating of a complex millennial history that is strongly contested by Russians and Ukrainians, and that goes back to the nationalist claim to the origins of Rus, and the intermingling of Slavs, Vikings, and Tatars. A good number of Portuguese cities and towns proudly display, proudly preserved, medieval public punishment posts: the pillories.

It doesn't occur to us at present to resort to them to punish delinquents, but by convincing us that solidarity with Ukraine is an essential step in the defense of traditional European values, it is not difficult to imagine that the pillories will be reactivated. One of these days.