Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Septentrionalis]

Also, the nuclear bluff is something we will have to call sooner or later. That is the unfortunate reality of the matter. Like Sar1n said, "giving in would codify nuclear extortion as viable offensive tactic." I hope we call it now instead of after giving in to various dictatorships' demands. There will be no end to those demands once they get used to having their way.

[antaeus]

The nuke bluff has been called a number of times... that's no reason to not take it seriously tho.

[Septentrionalis]

The nuke bluff has been called a number of times... that's no reason to not take it seriously tho.

Would you care to elaborate who threatened with nuclear weapons before the conflict at hand and who called the bluff?

[Coughdrop addict]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-blame...kraine-1750145

Former President Donald Trump blamed the United States for "almost forcing" Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine.
Trump's remarks came as Russia continued to stall in their struggling "special military operation," ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin more than seven months earlier on February 24, 2022. The ex-president has been critical of how President Joe Biden, who he may run against in the 2024 presidential election, has handled diplomatic relations with Russia. But critics accuse Trump of taking positions seen as favorable to Putin.
During an interview on Real America's Voice, a right-wing network favorable to Trump, the former president criticized the Biden administration. He argued that their "rhetoric" in the months leading up to the Ukraine invasion contributed to Putin's decision.
"They actually taunted him, if you really look at it. Our country, and our so-called leadership, taunted Putin. I said, you know, they're almost forcing him to go in with what they're saying. The rhetoric was so dumb."

Putin is very disappointed that Trump failed to get re-elected even after all of the help Putin gave him. He was counting on Trump to withdraw the US from NATO, causing the organization to collapse, along with massive military aid to support his warmongering. But Trump let him down, bigly. So Putin proceeded with his plan unilaterally but as we see, without Trump's support it has not gone well. Now Putin thinks if he can hold on until 2024 and get Trump re-elected, then he will have a green light to take anything he wants.

[AqD]

Now Putin thinks if he can hold on until 2024 and get Trump re-elected, then he will have a green light to take anything he wants.

If Trump is elected, EU could start developing nukes in all members and make alliance with CCP. Trump's term will be the last of their world domination, which I guess is the ultimate goal of GOP.

[Ludicus]

The civilized west - and the rest. Part 2.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

the discourse of "the West and the Rest" is not innocent because it did not represent an encounter between equals

Peter Franklin: Is the West ready for the barbarians?

For a historical parallel we should look to the fifth Century and the fall of Roman Empire. Or, rather, to the fall of the western Roman Empire. Crucially, the eastern half — centred upon Constantinople — did not fall. Indeed, it survived and flourished to become what we call the Byzantine Empire.
Why did the Byzantines (who called themselves Romans) endure while their western brethren crumbled?
What really made the difference was leadership. After the empire was permanently divided between eastern and western emperors in 395, the east had the benefit of competent, visionary leaders committed to the long-term survival of the realm, while the west — with fleeting exceptions — did not.
Let’s start with Theodosius II (402-450) — the builder of the formidable Theodosian walls.
The eventual result was a double wall and moat, three-and-a-half miles long. Time-and-again Constantinople withstood assault from its enemies.
Another Byzantine emperor who should inspire us is Anastasius I (491-518). He too was a wall builder, but even more important were his financial reforms.
in the east, barbarian generals like Aspar were almost as powerful as their western counterparts. But when he became emperor, Leo refused to be a puppet. He out-manouevred Aspar, had him executed and began the process by which the Byzantines took back control. They had realised that any state that depends on hostile foreigners for its security is ultimately doomed.

Today, we are fortunate that the military security of the West is still in western hands.

We can prepare to face the barbarians or merely wait for them. But, either way, they’re coming.*

Some, like Franklin, think that diplomacy is not the safest way to ensure the enforcement of the "rules-based international order" in a unipolar world, perpetually threatened by the barbarians.
What Rule-Based International Order? - Boston Review

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The war playing out in Ukraine is a nationalist one, but it is cloaked in appeals to the terms of the global order. It is essential that world publics take note of this—that citizens recognize the role rule-based internationalism plays in propaganda

Others say that the main reason for the longevity of the Byzantine empire was to avoid wars at almost all costs: for some, the US byzantine strategy is the elixir of longevity, and the Iraq invasion is the exception that proves the rule. America’s Byzantine strategy

In one way or another, for the west is the west and the east is the east… Russia's Turn to Its Asian Past - The Wall Street Journal
With a bonus illustration of Putin as Genghis Khan.



* Cavafy’s poem reminds us that the empire continually needs enemies to justify its existence; describes a country where all public life focuses on its enemies. Franklin completely missed the point.

---

Calls for negotiations grow…

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

One key factor seems to have driven this shift: fear that the war could turn nuclear.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Zelensky during a phone call on Tuesday that he is ready to help with efforts to end the war, according to Reuters. Modi “​​expressed his firm conviction that there can be no military solution to the conflict and conveyed India’s readiness to contribute to any peace efforts,” according to an Indian readout of the call. The news comes just a few weeks after Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador proposed that Modi, Pope Francis, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres serve as mediators for peace talks in Ukraine.

…While Macron 'slams the barbaric south as complicit with Russia.

But even this does not save him from being scolded by Zelensky Stop looking for a way out for Russia', Zelensky tells Macron

Even the Christian Pope may pray for Putin — but he's clinging to neutrality

…"it is seen as taking Russia’s side,” said one Western diplomat.

[Cyclops]

Interesting question about the nuclear bluff.

Definitely worked in Cuba, Kennedy got Khruschev sacked and rhe Soviets took their missiles out of Cuba. JFK also got a trip to Dealy Plaza for playing nuclear chicken FR.

Putin has postured and hinted but theres been no specifically nuclear red line. None of Russias red lines in the present war have proved real..

North Korea talks a nuclear game, has anyobe "given in" because if it? Its more nuclear posturing there.

Israel seems to have broken the cycle of invasions by nuclear bluff.

[Septentrionalis]

Someone having nuclear weapons is not what I call a nuclear bluff. I don't recall anyone threatening with them before.

[Alastor]

Would you rather stop them in Ukraine, or wait until they're in Berlin? Paris? On American soil?

You know you just can't have it both ways. The Russian military can't be both incompetent, unable to take on Ukraine, while at the same time able to threaten Berlin or Paris, or for that matter the US. This is just not credible. The only thing the west has to fear (the economic impact aside) is a nuclear escalation and our stand in Ukraine increases this probability, it doesn't decrease it. So maybe that's what we should be focusing our attention on.

[Septentrionalis]

You know you just can't have it both ways. The Russian military can't be both incompetent, unable to take on Ukraine, while at the same time able to threaten Berlin or Paris, or for that matter the US.

While you are right about that, we were discussing a scenario apparently favored by some conservative Americans that we should not stand up together against countries like that. Democracy in the world is in an accelerating decline with fewer and fewer people living in democracies. While corruption has made Russia weaker, countries such as China have grown stronger.

If Ukraine had not been assisted, it is likely they would have been unable to withstand the invasion. We are concerned about what the world will look like in 50 years or 100 years, and just allowing dictatorships to take countries one by one is not going to end well.

Just to give you some examples, China has built more navy tonnage in the last five years than the British Royal Navy has altogether. China alone has more submarines now than the US, and Russia and North Korea can tilt the scales even more. The western world is by no means permanently safe.

EDIT: It may have been that China has more submarines than the US Pacific fleet. Trying to find a confirmation on that.

EDIT2: It is really hard to determine what source has the most reliable figures as they vary quite a bit, but the main thing is that China either has fewer submarines than the US but are projected to have more in the near future or that they already do. Technologically, the US is considered to be ahead of China in submarine warfare. Also, while North Korea has a large fleet, reports vary as to how many of those are technologically up to date and capable of efficient warfare.

[Alastor]

While you are right about that, we were discussing a scenario apparently favored by some conservative Americans that we should not stand up together against countries like that. Democracy in the world is in an accelerating decline with fewer and fewer people living in democracies. While corruption has made Russia weaker, countries such as China have grown stronger.

If China is so strong why haven't they taken Taiwan yet? In b4 China is revealed to be yet another military paper tiger.

Whatever the case, this democracy under siege narrative is rather misleading. Democracies are threatened from within, not from the outside. Fewer and fewer people live under democracies? When did more people live under democracies? But it's not the quantity, it's the quality. Our democratic system is eroding and a big part of that is the effective elimination of public discourse. We are more fractured, more fanatical and more intolerant of other opinions than ever. Look at this Russia story... dare question the "official" narrative and you are a Putin troll. That's how democracies die.

[Septentrionalis]

If China is so strong why haven't they taken Taiwan yet?

What a strange question and completely detached from the matter at hand. China is getting stronger, but getting into a large conflict might not be in their interest right now, especially since they are benefiting of Taiwan. Such as hiring microchip professionals from Taiwan with much higher salaries than they can get in Taiwan.

Whatever the case, this democracy under siege narrative is rather misleading. Democracies are threatened from within, not from the outside.

Do you realize that a European country willing to integrate with the European Union was just brutally attacked by a dictatorship, leaving a wake of leveled cities and mass graves for civilians murdered under the invader's administration?

Our democratic system is eroding and a big part of that is the effective elimination of public discourse. We are more fractured, more fanatical and more intolerant of other opinions than ever.

I agree. That is a real concern and not a minor one, either.

Look at this Russia story... dare question the "official" narrative and you are a Putin troll.

Dare to question the official truth in Russia and you could face 15 years in prison. Or in case of prominent people or journalists, you might be found dead.

[Alastor]

Do you realize that a European country willing to integrate with the European Union was just brutally attacked by a dictatorship, leaving a wake of leveled cities and mass graves for civilians murdered under the invader's administration?

No I do not realize that. Ukraine was no EU material and as much an unfree society as Russia. Zelensky is not the democratic hero, fighting for truth, justice and the American way, that this one-sided narrative is trying to convince us he is.

Dare to question the official truth in Russia and you could face 15 years in prison. Or in case of prominent people or journalists, you might be found dead.

And the point of this comparison is what? You just called Russia a dictatorship, why do you compare our western supposed democracies with a dictatorship?

[conon394]

Definitely worked in Cuba, Kennedy got Khruschev sacked and rhe Soviets took their missiles out of Cuba. JFK also got a trip to Dealy Plaza for playing nuclear chicken FR

Although it worked because Khruschev realized JFD did not think Russia had working nukes in what amounted to local control in Cuba (not the big missiles but nukes none the less). Thus it JFK's move to an invasion which the Russian could clearly see that triggered his backing down. Once the US invaded he could not be sure his in conventional defeated would not take the nuclear option. Or in a confrontation over the blockade which of course came with in one vote of happening. Why Khruschev failed indicate the blockade was too late I dunno but he certainly boxed himself into a corner.

Had he admired it he probably could have made a direct link to say it was a response to the US missiles in Turkey and maybe got a open face saving back down out of it.

------------------

Calls for negotiations grow…

So lay out your starting point for negotiations Ludicus you refuse to. Is it that Putin has some special right to interfere in any place the that was in the USSR or Warsaw pact? The people there have no right democracy? You know where I live Ludicus where do you live? Just the country will be fine. HAs Putin extended any thing that a government of Ukraine can agree aside from being a permanent puppet state?

Not sure the Pope is a useful quote. Its been a long time since the days of Deus Vult.Pretty the popes thoughts on every conflict in the world now or since he got is funny hat are conflict should be resolved with negotiation.

"The war playing out in Ukraine is a nationalist one, but it is cloaked in appeals to the terms of the global order. It is essential that world publics take note of this—that citizens recognize the role rule-based internationalism plays in propaganda"

I don't believe the author makes achieve that conclusion. Putin as done just about zero to cloak his nationalist empire building in the cloths of the post ww2 order. Even the arrogant and lazy GBJr admin spent a ton more time on Iraq and they never said they in the long run simply conquering it and could play of Saddam's own mistakes to get a vague fig leaf of UN legitimacy.

---------------

No I do not realize that. Ukraine was no EU material and as much an unfree society as Russia. Zelensky is not the democratic hero, fighting for truth, justice and the American way, that this one-sided narrative is trying to convince us he is.

He was at least elected in a relatively fair/open election, and so were predecessors who clearly supported a general desire to move away from Russia. The moral and performance of his army and the war time backing he is receiving suggest he views to reflect those of most Ukranians.

[Cyclops]

Someone having nuclear weapons is not what I call a nuclear bluff. I don't recall anyone threatening with them before.

JFK over Cuba (he went to DEFCON 3 and actually ordered nukes loaded on planes, the Russians backed down) and Israels explicit if unofficial Mad Dog doctrine.

These are well known examples.

[Septentrionalis]

No I do not realize that. Ukraine was no EU material and as much an unfree society as Russia. Zelensky is not the democratic hero, fighting for truth, justice and the American way, that this one-sided narrative is trying to convince us he is.

That is one alternative narrative. But regardless of whether Ukraine is EU material today, it is willing to become that. Quite a few former Soviet or Warsaw Pact states have become such and are now valuable members in that Union with constantly improving economies and human rights records.

And Ukraine becoming one of those states is what Kremlin so despises that they are willing to start a brutal war of destruction rather than letting Ukraine become what other Eastern European countries have already become. And that is an attack against the west. We cannot allow our potential members and allies to be subjugated by a totalitarian state.

And the point of this comparison is what? You just called Russia a dictatorship, why do you compare our western supposed democracies with a dictatorship?

I compare them because they are fundamentally different. If the EU was the place where journalists went missing, dissidents would face long prison sentences, business leaders critical of the political elite would fall out of windows, and the police was detaining protesters by the hundreds or thousands while Russia had none of that, I too would be critical of the EU side of things.

Also, I would need to see a steady flow of EU citizens moving to Russia or seeking asylum there. That does not happen. A lot of people are trying to get out of Russia and move to the west. Movement of people is one of the most reliable indicators of what place is good and what is not. West Germany didn't need to build the Berlin wall.

[Alastor]

He was at least elected in a relatively fair/open election, and so were predecessors who clearly supported a general desire to move away from Russia. The moral and performance of his army and the war time backing he is receiving suggest he views to reflect those of most Ukranians.

Fair and open elections are the elections we like. So yeah, I'll take that with a big grain of salt. The "general desire" to move away from Russia is a funny claim, considering both him and his predecessors were the result of the Maidan, a US supported coup/revolution that aimed exactly at limiting Russian influence in Ukraine... so yeah job well done I guess. As for his army's performance and the support he's receiving, Ukrainian nationalism is strong, which ironically validates Russian concerns, and nationalism gets stronger when you are attacked anyway, but we shouldn't also discount their excellent propaganda campaign. I mean we are all making a big deal about Russian propaganda, but frankly the Russians need to go study under the Ukrainians. They have proven to be the masters.

That is one alternative narrative. But regardless of whether Ukraine is EU material today, it is willing to become that. Quite a few former Soviet or Warsaw Pact states have become such and are now valuable members in that Union with constantly improving economies and human rights records.

And Ukraine becoming one of those states is what Kremlin so despises that they are willing to start a brutal war of destruction rather than letting Ukraine become what other Eastern European countries have already become. And that is an attack against the west. We cannot allow our potential members and allies to be subjugated by a totalitarian state.

The whole world is a potential member and ally. Your dichotomy is false. Russia itself once expressed interest in joining NATO.

I compare them because they are fundamentally different. If the EU was the place where journalists went missing, dissidents would face long prison sentences, business leaders critical of the political elite would fall out of windows, and the police was detaining protesters by the hundreds or thousands while Russia had none of that, I too would be critical of the EU side of things.

Also, I would need to see a steady flow of EU citizens moving to Russia or seeking asylum there. That does not happen. A lot of people are trying to get out of Russia and move to the west. Movement of people is one of the most reliable indicators of what place is good and what is not. West Germany didn't need to build the Berlin wall.

Ok, great. So as long as nobody is killing journalists we have free press. Don't make me laugh. This is a fallacy. I was talking about the threat this kind of behaviour (specifically the effective sidelining of dissenting views) and its widespread adoption poses to our democratic systems. That there is worse across the globe is irrelevant.

[fkizz]

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-blame...kraine-1750145
Putin is very disappointed that Trump failed to get re-elected even after all of the help Putin gave him. He was counting on Trump to withdraw the US from NATO, causing the organization to collapse, along with massive military aid to support his warmongering. But Trump let him down, bigly. So Putin proceeded with his plan unilaterally but as we see, without Trump's support it has not gone well. Now Putin thinks if he can hold on until 2024 and get Trump re-elected, then he will have a green light to take anything he wants.

Trump main talking point was that Putin invaded Ukraine due to his absence, and that otherwise Putin would be too afraid to make a move due to Trump being in power. A mix of self-boasting and political rethoric. He does not support the invasion nor calls for surrender, and as any aspiring politician, has a speech meant to appeal greeks and trojans. Was a surprise the level of unity achieved, no need to promote a divisive speech just because of resentment/anger/revenge over the Orange Man. You'd be doing Putin a big favour in doing such.

Increasing the degree of abstraction, it's a "[politician Y] says [bad thing] wouldn't be happening if [politician Z] hadn't been elected" talking point yet again.

[Pontifex Maximus]

"nuclear bluff" sounds chillingly similar to "transitory inflation" with regards to the messaging of the white house/biden/neolib handler administration. Leftoid sources are already astroturfing nuclear war. But hey, at least no more mean tweets.

Freeze, starve, and be irradiated for Ukraine (and the planet) I guess.

[Cyclops]

There you go Conon beat me to the punch on the explanation, I'm getting slow in my old age.

....
He was at least elected in a relatively fair/open election, and so were predecessors who clearly supported a general desire to move away from Russia. The moral and performance of his army and the war time backing he is receiving suggest he views to reflect those of most Ukranians.

This is the pragmatic test, if Russia is the regional power it can squash its natural dependents in its sphere of influence regardless of their "preferences".

Ukraine is strong enough to enact its own policy, and Russia needs to respect that.