View Poll Results: Whom do you support and to what extent?

Voters
148. You may not vote on this poll
  • I support Ukraine fully.

    103 69.59%
  • I support Russia fully.

    15 10.14%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea.

    4 2.70%
  • I only support Russia's claim over Crimea and Donbass (Luhansk and Donetsk regions).

    11 7.43%
  • Not sure.

    7 4.73%
  • I don't care.

    8 5.41%

Thread: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

  1. #8021

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post

    After all these losses, how could they present it as a win?
    The same way North Korea celebrates their "Victory" over the United States. It's easy to present whatever narrative you want when you can simply have dissenters shot.

    Who would believe them?
    The many Russian apologists in the west. In a few years they'd be proudly proclaiming how Russia "crushed" NATO.

    If the war ended now, even with the best possible outcome, Russia would still be humbled and defeated.
    If Putin has an inch of Ukrainian land he didn't start with he will consider it a victory. Money, armaments, and especially Russian lives are meaningless to him. His personal power is all that matters.

    Of course, nobody expected this, everyone thought Russia would steamroll Ukraine and so prepared for that eventuality. Pushing against Russia much harder than it seems was necessary. Which is why Russia continues.

    The west doesn't want to humble Russia, they want to completely humiliate Russia and worse.
    Poor Russia! Always the victim!

    If you want to invade another country, commit war crimes as your main military tactic, snatch millions of people for slave labor, and your stormtroopers proudly boast of raping toddlers, you should damn well expect the civilized world will push back hard against you.

    That approach is dangerous, not only because it escalates the current conflict, but because even if the west were to achieve its goals it would only feed revanchism in Russia and eventually a potentially greater war. There is, afterall, the Versailles precedent.
    No, delicately coddling Russia's ego is not more important than preventing them from waging wars of conquest whenever the opportunity arises. Imagine if this was 1945 and you argued we needed to let the Nazis save face. Or that Japan should be allowed to keep the parts of China it held, to hell with what the Chinese wanted.
    Last edited by Coughdrop addict; March 25, 2023 at 06:48 PM.

  2. #8022
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    I'm sorry but this is a ridiculous response. You either don't want to, or you are simply unable to understand the arguments I'm trying to make. You are so hellbent on this simplistic evil Russia narrative, that there is apparently no room for any nuance in your understanding of the situation. I have little interest in debating under those terms, I mean what is there to say? That Russia is not isolationist like North Korea, so it's not about presenting the situation internally as a win but externally to their would be clients? That those many Russian apologists in the west exist for the most part in your imagination? That you are not in Putin's head to be able to say with this level of certainty what he will consider what? None of this would mean anything to you, that much is obvious. You will simply say Russia is evil and, in your own head at least, you'll be vindicated.

    All I can do is say that it would be good to remember geopolitics are never this black and white and leave it at that. if you do remember that at some point, we probably could have a more meaningful discussion.

  3. #8023

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It's absolutely not ridiculous for anyone who knows a bit about how Russia works.

    The propaganda is very good at this. Just like many times before, the memory of blood and death will fade, but the achieved victory, no matter how small, will be touted to high heavens. And Russia will come for more. The only way to stop it is to deny them any victory. Or change the Russia from the inside, but that doesn't seem like a possibility.

  4. #8024
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    It is a great solace that good is always, in the end, more competent than evil. Because good allows dissent and pointing out flaws in plans. Good is concerned with things. How things turn out if we do this or that. Evil is about someone's power trip. And then you get a Putin who is fed lies and sugar-coated analyses by sycophants, and intelligence officers telling Putin that invading Ukraine is a bad idea get publicly humiliated and bullied by Putin.
    I guess it's why no country ever lost a major war to a more barbaric country.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  5. #8025

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    I'm sorry but this is a ridiculous response. You either don't want to, or you are simply unable to understand the arguments I'm trying to make. You are so hellbent on this simplistic evil Russia narrative, that there is apparently no room for any nuance in your understanding of the situation. I have little interest in debating under those terms, I mean what is there to say? That Russia is not isolationist like North Korea, so it's not about presenting the situation internally as a win but externally to their would be clients? That those many Russian apologists in the west exist for the most part in your imagination? That you are not in Putin's head to be able to say with this level of certainty what he will consider what? None of this would mean anything to you, that much is obvious. You will simply say Russia is evil and, in your own head at least, you'll be vindicated.

    All I can do is say that it would be good to remember geopolitics are never this black and white and leave it at that. if you do remember that at some point, we probably could have a more meaningful discussion.
    Just a month ago you were arguing Ukraine had already lost and it was cruel for the U.S. to "force them" to keep fighting.

    Now you cry about Ukraine hurting Putin's feelings by fighting back too hard, and how Russia must be allowed to lose with it's pride intact.

    Here's an idea, how about Russia stops waging war on other countries to prop up the ego of it's fascist dictator? Then you won't have to constantly defend it's reputation from those who see it as a warlike criminal empire full of dangerous barbarians.
    Last edited by Coughdrop addict; March 26, 2023 at 12:35 AM.

  6. #8026

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Septentrionalis View Post
    It is a great solace that good is always, in the end, more competent than evil. Because good allows dissent and pointing out flaws in plans. Good is concerned with things. How things turn out if we do this or that. Evil is about someone's power trip. And then you get a Putin who is fed lies and sugar-coated analyses by sycophants, and intelligence officers telling Putin that invading Ukraine is a bad idea get publicly humiliated and bullied by Putin.
    I certainly do not mean "good" as moral statement, there; I mean "effective". It did what it was trying to achieve. Nor did I use the word "evil" anywhere. The Russian plan was "bad" because it did not achieve what it was aiming to achieve.
    They give birth astride of a grave, the light gleams an instant, then it's night once more.

  7. #8027

    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by The spartan View Post
    I certainly do not mean "good" as moral statement, there; I mean "effective". It did what it was trying to achieve. Nor did I use the word "evil" anywhere. The Russian plan was "bad" because it did not achieve what it was aiming to achieve.
    I apologize; I did not intend to put words into your mouth. What you said just made think of something I have thought of before many times. Namely the practical incompetence that moral evil seems to breed. It is a complex matter, but systems based on autocracy, coercion, and instilling fear seem to perform really badly in modern warfare. And yes, I believe that Russia under the current rule represents evil.

  8. #8028
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Coughdrop addict View Post
    Just a month ago you were arguing Ukraine had already lost and it was cruel for the U.S. to "force them" to keep fighting.

    Now you cry about Ukraine hurting Putin's feelings by fighting back too hard, and how Russia must be allowed to lose with it's pride intact.

    Here's an idea, how about Russia stops waging war on other countries to prop up the ego of it's fascist dictator? Then you won't have to constantly defend it's reputation from those who see it as a warlike criminal empire full of dangerous barbarians.
    You think what I'm saying is inconsistent? That shows, yet again, that you don't understand my points. Ukraine has already lost and it keeps on losing more and more. Even if it manages to throw the Russians out, even if it wins, it has lost. It must be mindboggling that things aren't black and white. Victory or defeat. Good guys and bad guys. I get it.

    Secondly, the fact you use words like "crying" and whatever that last sentence of yours is supposed to be, simply validates my earlier point that your understanding lacks nuance.

  9. #8029
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Another news article about who blow up North Stream 2. In my opinion very plausible theory.

    Nord Stream attack
    Putin's secret convoy

    The Russian Navy was allegedly operating with a mini-submarine near the Nord Stream pipelines shortly before the explosions. This raises questions about the investigation.

    For many years, the scene of the Nord Stream attacks northeast of the island of Bornholm was no more than a random spot in the Baltic Sea. Located just outside the Danish and Swedish radar zones, there is nothing but water as far as the eye can see. And underneath, at a depth of almost 80 meters, is a gas pipeline whose exact location is known only to insiders.

    Alert before the attacks

    Danish patrol boats almost never went there. Every morning at about the same time, a Swedish radar plane took off from the Malmen military airfield to fly over the Baltic Sea. Above all, the crew secured the strategically important island of Gotland. Apparently there was little to control north-east of Bornholm.

    That changed shortly before the explosions on September 26, 2022, which tore apart the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines and thus sealed the end of German-Russian energy cooperation. From the evening of September 21, something extraordinary happened there.

    The Royal Danish Navy's patrol boat "Nymfen" surprisingly left Rødbyhavn at 19.50 and set course for Bornholm. More precisely: on the spot that would become known only five days later as the crime scene of the Nord Stream sabotage. Something there obviously needed urgent checking.

    Hunt a ghost

    When the ship reached its destination on the morning of September 22, it was soon joined by the Swedish air and sea forces. The course of one of the Swedish ships in the coming days: the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.

    The patrols were believed to be pursuing Russian military ships. As t-online learned from security circles, an association of the Russian Navy is said to have operated under strict shielding in the area of ​​​​the later crime scene. "Like a ghost," it says, without sending its position data. The ships would have had exactly the equipment needed to place explosive devices on the pipelines. Publicly available data indicates that the information is correct.

    The activities of the Russian Navy in the days leading up to the blasts could be an important lead in a mysterious criminal case: the gas pipeline attack amid Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine. At the same time, they would question theories about other possible culprits that have caused a stir in recent weeks.

    One was: the USA had been the mastermind behind the sabotage. Many details of the report have now been refuted. Recently, however, joint research by ARD, SWR and "Zeit" brought another sequence of events into play: the Federal Public Prosecutor is following the tracks of a possibly pro-Ukrainian group that could have carried out the attacks with the "Andromeda" sailing yacht and two divers. In fact, the Federal Criminal Police Office searched the suspicious boat.
    Experts suspect "false flag"

    However, the theory of a terrorist sailing trip on a private Ukrainian contract has caused heads to shake in specialist circles. It is said that this is not very plausible. There is much to be said for a "false flag operation" - for traces that are to be found and are intended to disguise the real masterminds. Most likely submarines or underwater drones were used, hundreds of kilograms of military explosives. All of this speaks for a state actor.
    Some members of the Bundestag on the Parliamentary Control Committee, who were only recently briefed by the German investigators, believe that too. You have to be "maximally careful" with the evidence that has so far become known in the media, said the chairman of the committee, Konstantin von Notz (Greens). Deliberately misleading information is also conceivable.

    Research by t-online now suggests that there could be more to the operation than a sailing yacht.

    A week before the explosions on September 19, the Russian Baltic Fleet began extensive maneuvers that could be used as camouflage for real missions. They were officially joined by combat swimmers from the 313th Spetsnaz special forces unit from the Baltiysk base in Kaliningrad. They are elite soldiers, trained for underwater demolition and sabotage operations. In the following days, the suspicious ships were apparently found in the area of ​​the crime scenes.
    Mini submarine and cargo cranes

    Their equipment was explosive: they had a mini submarine and cranes for lifting heavy loads. A frigate, a corvette and a smaller spy ship are said to have been there and would have been suitable to secure the operation militarily. Using position databases and satellite images, t-online was able to partially understand the movements of the specific ships.

    The Danish Navy's patrol boat moved to the later crime scene at 7:50 p.m. on September 21. By this time, three ships suspected of being involved in the Russian operation could already have arrived there. At the same time, a communications ship from the Russian fleet command also left the base in Kaliningrad at this time - later it was to meet two of the ships involved on their return.
    ships at night

    The point in time on the evening of September 21 would have been favorable for the hot phase of a clandestine operation: around this time, dusk had passed off the Danish island of Bornholm. Night fell, making visual surveillance difficult. A group of US warships had passed the area several hours earlier on their way to the Atlantic. The Swedish Air Force's radar plane would not take off again until the next morning. This would have enabled the association to work largely undisturbed throughout the night.
    Probably the most important ship in the Russian formation for the operation would have been the submarine support ship "SS-750". It regularly takes part in training courses in which accidents on the seabed are simulated. The special feature: On board there is a so-called "Project 1855", i.e. a mini submarine called "AS-26", which is intended to evacuate the crew of crashed submarines in an emergency. It has gripper arms that can move cargo weighing up to 50 kilograms under water.

    "Most Plausible Explanation"

    Such mini-submarines could have placed the explosive charges on the pipelines, experts suspected from the start. If it were confirmed that the "SS-750" was at the scene of the crime, the Russian Navy would be the main suspect from now on. "It would make perfect sense to use something like the 'AS-26' for such an attack," Danish corvette captain and military analyst Johannes Riber told t-online. "That would be the most plausible explanation so far for what happened to the Nord Stream pipeline."

    The "SS-750" is usually stationed as part of the Baltic Fleet at the Kaliningrad base in Baltiysk. However, satellite images show that it apparently expired on the night of September 21st. At a speed of nine knots, she would have been able to reach the crime scene at 7:50 p.m. The so-called "Automatic Identification System" (AIS), which sends location data, was switched off. However, its length of 95 meters would correspond to the dimensions of a "dark ship" discovered by the US company SpaceKnow without a position signal near the crime scene.

    In a similar period - between midnight and 1 a.m. - according to satellite images, two other ships allegedly involved in the operation left the port in Kaliningrad: the rescue tugs "SB-123" and "Alexander Frolow". They each have loading cranes on deck that would be suitable for lowering explosive devices or mines weighing hundreds of kilograms into the water.

    Although they initially switched off the AIS, they sent position data far to the west once in the afternoon, suggesting a course towards Bornholm and a speed of nine knots. They were only five hours away from the sites of the subsequent attack.

    A little later, a US military helicopter stationed in Gdansk, Poland, crossed their course. Did he warn the Danes of the ships approaching without position signals?

    In any case, the two smugglers could have reached the crime scene by 7:50 p.m. It's unclear if their short length of 45 meters protected them from being spotted in SpaceKnow analysis of satellite imagery. The company did not respond to a request to that effect.

    According to t-online information, however, three more ships were assigned to the association.

    The spy ship "Syzran": Satellite images suggest that this ship also left the port of Kaliningrad on September 21, but clouds do not allow a definitive conclusion.
    The corvette "Soobrazitelny": According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, it was involved in anti-submarine exercises in the Baltic Sea by September 18 at the latest. Late in the evening of September 22 – exactly on the day that Danish and Swedish ships began the pursuit – the ministry published a report that the "Soobrazitelny" had escorted a convoy of ships for training purposes.
    The frigate "Yaroslav Mudry": According to official statements, it too took part in the escort maneuver with the "Soobrazitelny" and its sister corvette, the "Stoikiy". Satellite images dated September 22 show a ship her size alongside one of the corvettes off the coast of Poland. Both had switched off the AIS.

    Their position would have enabled the frigate and corvette to accompany ships returning from the scene of the crime to Kaliningrad, or at least to shield them from NATO maneuvers on the Polish coast. However, there is reason to believe that the frigate previously sailed in the direct area of ​​the crime scenes.
    The trail of the "Yaroslav Mudry"

    The satellite image analysis by SpaceKnow not only discovered a "Dark Ship" 95 meters long that could have been the "SS-750" - but also a second one with a length of 130 meters. The Yaroslav Mudry is the only ship in the Russian Baltic Sea Fleet that long. And there's another clue to the frigate at the scene.

    About six months earlier, on March 14, 2022, she had apparently already triggered a patrol by Danish naval vessels there. For the only time in five years before September 22nd. At that time, too, she had switched off the AIS, but can be identified again on satellite images. What was the mission of the "Yaroslav Mudry" there? Was it possibly collecting data on how quickly NATO forces would react in an emergency?

    The activities of the Russian Navy in the days before the attacks have so far played no role in official statements. Neither the German nor the Danish or Swedish investigators nor NATO or the armed forces of the Baltic Sea countries wanted to comment on t-online's request. So the criminal case remains unsolved for the time being, but is richer by a chain of clues. It doesn't point to the US or Ukraine. The trail leads to Moscow.

    Sources used: Own research

    https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/...-russland.html


    And here the article in english how the research was made:

    https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/osint-analysis-six-russian-ships


    Edit:

    Another analyse from OLiver Alexander, why Seymour Hersh story has plot holes:

    https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/...ur-hershs-pipe
    Last edited by Morticia Iunia Bruti; March 26, 2023 at 05:51 AM.
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  10. #8030
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    So according to that theory, Russia blew up its own pipeline, so as to gain...what? No one would expect Germany to be anti-US anytime soon, for a host of reasons.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  11. #8031
    Ludicus's Avatar Comes Limitis
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Mithradates View Post
    The ICC arrest warrant for Putin is a clear message (...)
    Very clear, indeed...
    Can war in Ukraine be an opportunity for children's justice?

    When it comes to defending children’s rights, Véronique Aubert Bell is one the key experts to turn to.

    GS News: Could the war in Ukraine provide a chance to stop failing children and for justice to evolve?


    Absolutely. There is an unprecedented amount of interest and funding for international justice.
    At last! I thought it would never happen...

    Russia's reported abduction of Ukrainian children echoes other genocidal policies including US history of kidnapping Native American children-The Conversation

    in 1948, the U.S. agreed that forcible child transfers constitute genocide. Yet it continued its own practice of Native child abductions for another 30 years. If Russia is forcibly adopting Ukrainian children, then, as U.S. history painfully demonstrates, the trauma of these abductions may span generations.
    Check out the in-depth documentary Dawnland.
    Removal of Native children isn’t just something that happened far away and long ago, but to Wabanaki communities in Maine in the late 20th century.
    ---
    Let’s move on. At least 6000 Ukrainian children taken to Russian - CBS News

    If indeed Russia abducted 6,000 Ukrainian children without the knowledge of their parents and brought them to Russia with the knowledge of the Russian president, then Putin can be charged by the ICC, under the paragraph e) -Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group- of the Article 6, Genocide (link below *)
    The article 18 refers the “Preliminary rulings regarding admissibility.” The terms of article 18 do not appear to have been followed before the ICC issued an arrest warrant. Which they say is valid in 142 countries that are signatories to their statutes.

    In addition to this, there is another no lesser issue - Russia is not a signatory and member of the ICC. It turns out that not only is Russia not a signatory and member of the ICC, but neither are countries like Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, or the US.

    1-If that were the case, Israel would fall under article 7 - crimes against humanity - paragraph j, the crime of apartheid.

    2-Saudi Arabia
    would see its Prince Regent, who had Saudi American journalist Khashoggi cut to ribbons at the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul, and whom Biden went to visit in Riyadh to ask for oil, charged with murder, under article 7, paragraph a).

    3-Erdogan, who the Scandinavian states are now begging for a "nihil obstat" in letting them join NATO, would be declared a criminal under Article 7 for all the "crimes against humanity" he is committing in plain sight against the Kurdish community in his country. Erdogan launches new ethnic cleansing campaign

    4-NATO, with the US at the head, and former President George Bush would have to be accountable for their war crimes, according to Article 8 - the 78 days of air raids on Belgrade, where 2,500 innocent civilians died in exchange for getting the surrender of the war criminal Milosovic, transported in glory to be tried in The Hague by the ICC, or for the operation "shock and awe" better known as the Iraq war II, responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths, when a group of US allies invaded a sovereign country to search for weapons that did not exist - both operations without a UN mandate.

    5-The US and three of its presidents, including current President Biden, would have to answer under Article 7 (e) for the crime of "Imprisonment or other serious deprivation of physical liberty in violation of fundamental rules of international law." That’s because Abu Ghraib (closed in 2014) and Guanatanamo are illegal prisons, outside of any recognized jurisdictions, to where prisoners have been clandestinely transported, after having been kidnapped in their countries Rendition: the use of European countries by the CIA for the the transport and illegal detention of prisoners

    ...and where they have been, some of them perhaps innocent, for 10 or 12 years, without the right to lawyers, family contact, and correspondence with the outside, without being judged or sentenced, eventually tortured by presidential order, and they can remain there until the end of their lives.

    *
    Rome Statute - | International Criminal Court

    ---
    In this war, Russia and Ukraine, both committed barbaric crimes. Only those who do not know the history of the barbarism of war are the ones who are still lulled by the one-sided narrative served up to us here in the West, which is to believe that this war is unique: bad guys on one side, little angels on the other. When the Amnesty International tried to break this informational uniformity that has been established, it was soon silenced in Ukraine and the "liberal democracies."

    UN decries prisoner of war torture, killings on both sides of Russia-Ukraine conflict.

    We were once the host country for a summit in the Azores that was a mere formality for the war that had already been decided. The four speakers at the summit - Bush, Blair, Aznar and Barroso- later acknowledged that Iraq's weapons of mass destruction did not exist. The year after the war started, Kofi Annan said that the war was illegal. That war, now with other actors, drags on to this day, with very serious consequences. Of course, there were never any consequences for the political leaders who started it.
    Il y a quelque chose de pire que d'avoir une âme perverse. C’est d'avoir une âme habituée
    Charles Péguy

    Every human society must justify its inequalities: reasons must be found because, without them, the whole political and social edifice is in danger of collapsing”.
    Thomas Piketty

  12. #8032
    Kyriakos's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    It is certainly delightfully ironic, that they are begging Erdogan while keeping a straight face about human rights.
    Λέων μεν ὄνυξι κρατεῖ, κέρασι δε βούς, ἄνθρωπος δε νῷι
    "While the lion prevails with its claws, and the ox through its horns, man does by his thinking"
    Anaxagoras of Klazomenae, 5th century BC










  13. #8033
    Morticia Iunia Bruti's Avatar Praeses
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    So according to that theory, Russia blew up its own pipeline, so as to gain...what? No one would expect Germany to be anti-US anytime soon, for a host of reasons.
    To spread panic in the gas market and raise this way gas prices. And to increase european pressure on Ukraine to give up because of fear of an cold winter, if Russia close the transit through Ukraine:

    “It looks like the developments on Nord Stream 1 & 2 were just a prelude to this latest development,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS in London. “If Russia cuts flows through Ukraine, the EU can’t even now consider a late U-turn and ask for either Nord Stream to be opened to help the situation.”

    The market has already been roiled by news that two lines of the key Nord Stream link and one line of the idled Nord Stream 2 were damaged, with gas leaks identified by Swedish and Danish authorities in the Baltic Sea. Two powerful underwater explosions were detected, according to Sweden.


    There have been no gas supplies on this route from Russia over the past month, but the incident adds to nervousness in the market. Germany suspects an act of sabotage, according to a security official. Operating company Nord Stream AG said damage to the network was “unprecedented” and it’s impossible to tell when flows could technically resume."

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/european-gas-prices-rise-amid-outages-at-idled-russian-pipelines?leadSource=uverify%20wall
    Cause tomorrow is a brand-new day
    And tomorrow you'll be on your way
    Don't give a damn about what other people say
    Because tomorrow is a brand-new day


  14. #8034
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Morticia Iunia Bruti View Post
    To spread panic in the gas market and raise this way gas prices. And to increase european pressure on Ukraine to give up because of fear of an cold winter, if Russia close the transit through Ukraine
    Sth they could do anyway by actually owning and controlling those pipes... instead of, you know, blowing up their own leverage. Yeah no, sorry, it doesn't add up.

  15. #8035
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Kyriakos View Post
    So according to that theory, Russia blew up its own pipeline, so as to gain...what? No one would expect Germany to be anti-US anytime soon, for a host of reasons.
    Makes the old network through places like Ukrain and Poland more critical and thus potentially making W Europe pressure Ukraine to stop fighting. Also as I posted since Gazprom was violating its contract agreements by stopping or slowing various delivers it was libel to contract violation litigation. No pipeline and that problem goes away


    --------------------


    In addition to this, there is another no lesser issue - Russia is not a signatory and member of the ICC. It turns out that not only is Russia not a signatory and member of the ICC, but neither are countries like Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, or the US.
    Interesting list there. Seems to have some selective Bias... Where is China, Leaders still alive from the PLO, The Burma hanta, still geriatric dudes in Vietnam who could stand trial for their methods in the war and after, Sure a lot guys in Brazil could face the dock but seem not to be


    ---------------

    Sth they could do anyway by actually owning and controlling those pipes... instead of, you know, blowing up their own leverage. Yeah no, sorry, it doesn't add up.

    Force Germany et al to depend on the system through Ukraine again and thus have more incentive to push for making Ukraine stop fighting sooner before anything happened to that route for gas.
    Last edited by conon394; March 26, 2023 at 11:07 AM.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  16. #8036
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Makes the old network through places like Ukrain and Poland more critical and thus potentially making W Europe pressure Ukraine to stop fighting. Also as I posted since Gazprom was violating its contract agreements by stopping or slowing various delivers it was libel to contract violation litigation. No pipeline and that problem goes away
    You are assuming a properly functioning relationship between Russia and the west. But the west has already frozen and confiscated Russian assets. What would a lawsuit do to Gazprom when there is no interest in enforcing western court rulings and no exposure? This is an inconsistent argument.
    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Force Germany et al to depend on the system through Ukraine again and thus have more incentive to push for making Ukraine stop fighting sooner before anything happened to that route for gas.
    And this is a weak one. Considering the pressure they could apply on Germany could only be temporary, given the extraordinary effort made to wean themselves off Russian gas. Such temporary pressure could easily be applied by shutting down the pipes, sth Russia had already effectively done. So no, sorry, it doesn't fit. The gas market for Russia is too vulnerable anyway, gas can easily be traced and sanctioned, as it was, which is why Russia is focusing on selling crude. But again, that doesn't mean they would blow up their own pipes. Pipes that could be used again in the future.
    Last edited by Alastor; March 26, 2023 at 11:17 AM.

  17. #8037
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    You are assuming a properly functioning relationship between Russia and the west. But the west has already frozen and confiscated Russian assets. What would a lawsuit do to Gazprom when there is no interest in enforcing western court rulings and no exposure? This is an inconsistent argument.
    And this is a weak one. Considering the pressure they could apply on Germany could only be temporary, given the extraordinary effort made to wean themselves off Russian gas. Such temporary pressure could easily be applied by shutting down the pipes, sth Russia had already effectively done. So no, sorry, it doesn't fit. The gas market for Russia is too vulnerable anyway, gas can easily be traced and sanctioned, as it was, which is why Russia is focusing on selling crude. But again, that doesn't mean they would blow up their own pipes. Pipes that could be used again in the future.
    Your latter point works in the opposite direction as well if Germany and the rest of Western Europe the US had no reason to act either.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

  18. #8038
    Alastor's Avatar Vicarius
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by conon394 View Post
    Your latter point works in the opposite direction as well if Germany and the rest of Western Europe the US had no reason to act either.
    No, it doesn't. The US wanted those pipes gone, Biden himself said so clearly. Why not take this opportunity to do so now? Deprive Russia of an asset. Why let them be there and perhaps see them be used again in the future? Perhaps, after things had normalised again somewhat.

  19. #8039
    reavertm's Avatar Biarchus
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    Sth they could do anyway by actually owning and controlling those pipes... instead of, you know, blowing up their own leverage. Yeah no, sorry, it doesn't add up.
    I might be mistaken but I think oil pipe cannot be just closed with a valve where it is sent from.

  20. #8040
    conon394's Avatar hoi polloi
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    Default Re: Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

    Quote Originally Posted by Alastor View Post
    No, it doesn't. The US wanted those pipes gone, Biden himself said so clearly. Why not take this opportunity to do so now? Deprive Russia of an asset. Why let them be there and perhaps see them be used again in the future? Perhaps, after things had normalised again somewhat.

    And Germany had agreeded with US desires there no point in risking it. But if the pipelines are gone Germany can only restore its old deal if the original system is same and not under threat from a hostile Ukraine. Germany can't just passively step back it has to actually lean into backing forcing Ukraine to negotiate.
    IN PATROCINIVM SVB Dromikaites

    'One day when I fly with my hands - up down the sky, like a bird'

    But if the cause be not good, the king himself hath a heavy reckoning to make, when all those legs and arms and heads, chopped off in battle, shall join together at the latter day and cry all 'We died at such a place; some swearing, some crying for surgeon, some upon their wives left poor behind them, some upon the debts they owe, some upon their children rawly left.

    Hyperides of Athens: We know, replied he, that Antipater is good, but we (the Demos of Athens) have no need of a master at present, even a good one.

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