Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Ludicus]

Based on What?

Its a subjective feeling.Last night I heard several commentators on CCN saying what I think : if the war continues, one of two things happens: Ukraine succeeds militarily, and we don't know how Russia will react, and that doesn't bode well, or Russia ends up conquering the whole Ukrainian territory, which is also terrible.A compromise must be sought that gives both parties a graceful way out. I have also heard from some old European diplomats that they are unhappy with Ursula's somewhat authoritarian way of managing the EU, because she should not be the prima donna in decision-making issues and who (as I have already mentioned) feel that the EU is self-destructing at an accelerated pace.Moreover, this serious incident scared a lot of people.
Many think that sooner or later, an even worse incident/accident will occur.And, as is well described in this CNN report,the incident has also created some cracks in the West’s alliance with Ukraine.We all understood well that Biden was not at all happy with Zelensksy's attitude.
Biden played a decisive role in preventing a catastrophe.Nobody wants a world war, except Zelensky. What happened only NATO's fleet of E spy planes over Ukraine can know. Biden may know, but we will never know.As I reported last night,

Inside the US scramble to run down the facts as the Russia

it became clear to American officials examining satellite-based intelligence systems and speaking to their Polish counterparts that the missile, which landed on a Polish farm in the country’s far east, appeared to have been launched by Ukraine as part of its air defense systems.

Around an hour after the news broke of the incident, Volodymyr Zelensky said in his nightly address that “Russian missiles hit Poland,” calling it “a very significant escalation” that required a response.

Sullivan quickly called Zelensky’s office after those remarks, and urged officials to tread more carefully with how they were speaking about the incident, sources familiar with the call said. Biden and Zelensky did not speak on Tuesday night, despite requests by the Ukrainian leader to arrange a call,

But the incident has also created some cracks in the Wests’s alliance with Ukraine.
Biden and Duda have now both said publicly that the missile appeared to have originated with Ukraine's air defense system—a claim Zelensky has continued to adamantly deny, which has frustrated Polish officials, sources said.

And although Biden spoke with Duda and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in the aftermath of the strike, and held emergency talks with world leaders at the G20, the president had still not spoken directly with Zelensky by Wednesday afternoon,

Instead, Sullivan spoke to Zelensky’s chief of staff in the hours after the explosion, the sources said, and Blinken spoke with his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

By Wednesday, multiple senior US officials were saying publicly that intelligence pointed to the explosion coming from a Ukrainian air defense missile that landed in Poland accidentally. The US had also shared the classified information with allies before Wednesday morning’s North Atlantic Council meeting at NATO headquarters, an official said.
The initial assessment is that the Ukrainian air defense missile tried to intercept a Russian missile but missed and landed in Poland, multiple US and NATO officials said.


On Thursday, Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian investigators will be permitted to access to the site of the strike and acknowledged that Ukraine did fire an air defense missile. “I don’t know what happened. We don’t know for sure. The world does not know. But I am sure that it was a Russian missile.

Take note:"I don’t know what happened. But I am sure that it was a Russian missile"

[Kyriakos]

Ursula is only a nominal head too, since she is very glaringly run by Germany (she was just a second-rate german politician, shamed in scandals, before she got installed as... head of the Eu).
The Eu, sadly, has (for more than a decade now) stopped aspiring to be an actual superpower and is simply the largest client-state of the US, while also an apparatus for 1,5 european countries to have tarriff-less exports to the rest of the union.

[conon394]

Its a subjective feeling.Lastnight I heard several commentators on CCN saying what I think : ifthe war continues, one of two things happens: Ukraine succeedsmilitarily, and we don't know how Russia will react, and that doesn'tbode well, or Russia ends up conquering the whole Ukrainianterritory, which is also terrible.A compromise must be sought thatgives both parties a graceful way out. I have also heard from someold European diplomats that they are unhappy with Ursula's somewhatauthoritarian way of managing the EU, because she should not be theprima donna in decision-making issues and who (as I have alreadymentioned) feel that the EU is self-destructing at an acceleratedpace.Moreover, this serious incident scared a lot of people.
Many think that sooner or later, aneven worse incident/accident will occur.And, as is well described inthis CNN report,the incident has also created some cracks in theWest’s alliance with Ukraine.We all understood well that Biden wasnot at all happy with Zelensksy's attitude.
Biden played a decisive role inpreventing a catastrophe.Nobody wants a world war, except Zelensky.What happened only NATO's fleet of E spy planes over Ukraine canknow. Biden may know, but we will never know.As I reported lastnight,

You keep thinking Putin wants a wayout. There is no indication he does. He has made it clear over andover that he views not some minor point like the Crimea transfer wasillegitimate or NATO expansion is at issue and some hand shake dealwith a dead state but that the existence of Ukraine itself. If hewanted a way he would have only annexed the Donbas offered a sortacompleted conquest and Ukrainian neutrality or something. But he didnot. His clear first aims were to replace the government and reducedUkraine if were allowed to continue to exist at all to a land lockedrump state.


He did not pull back to the east of dnieper river as a fig leaf but finally accepting the militarynecessity his generals had wanted for months. His emergency call upand regular conscription order (and note now a lot of Ukraine isRussia so they can be used and if I am not mistake he stop loss theprevious conscription pool). He can be certain winter will be atleast uncomfortable for EU states and hard for Ukraine – outside ofCapitulation what is there to offer him in negotiation he probablythinks he can take in the spring? So far the west is only just nowhanding reall anti air and missiles systems, still no modern tanksand APC in amount Ukraine needs, nor longer range artillery oraircraft.

[conon394]

The Eu, sadly, has (for more than a decade now) stopped aspiring to be an actual superpower and is simply the largest client-state of the US, while also an apparatus for 1,5 european countries to have tarriff-less exports to the rest of the union.

Have to unify your armies, military budgets (and have more than a what 3 or 4 countries spending more 3% GDP), reserves and territorial defense and procurement forces to do that - otherwise you you are just aspiring

[Ludicus]

The Eu, sadly, has (for more than a decade now) stopped aspiring to be an actual superpower and is simply the largest client-state of the US, .

Sadly, well said.

Ukraine and western allies at odds over missile that exploded Financial Times.

Responding to Zelenskyy’s comments, a diplomat from a Nato country in Kyiv told the Financial Times: “This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.”

[Stario]

The official cope from Russia has been that the US military and NATO are in Ukraine and that's really who they have been fighting

Haven't been fighting yet. But there are reports, units under a 1 star (now replaced by 3 star) have been setting up in Western Ukraine under pretence of "investigation missing Ukranian weapons."
But you don't typically send a 3 star General to a war zone to conduct an investigation like this, you typically send in civilian/private team(s)) for that sort of work.

but it's being kept a secret from the US and NATO public. As if you could just sneak tens of thousands of soldiers and thousands of vehicles into a Ukraine without anyone noticing!

Exactly, the Russians have satellites etc., so it will be impossible to hide (they know muricans are there).
So the fear is they will start targeting muricans and this thing will quickly escalate.
But targeting muricans - if you think about it would make sense, as they are spear heading this conflict; hence destoying the muricans would shatter; if not only for the morale, both NATO and Ukranians. But we could also be staring at a major war if this happens.

[antaeus]

"There are reports"

Are you going to make me ask you to link to these reports? Genuinely curious.

[AqD]

when they reach a major river. They have to agree to peace with some concessions, the most anodyne of which is to simply identify Crimea as de jure russian (and be given back Donbas). Again, this depends also on whether Russia can accept that, but it would be the closest to a "noble peace" imo.

It'd be fine if peace is signed and a few days after Russian withdraw people in Crimea holds a referendum to become Ukrainian, and NATO peacekeepers happen to arrive at the same time.

Though taking all land by force is still a much better option. Putin's loss so far is too little. His serfs are disappointed and angry, not devastated and afraid.

[AqD]

Biden played a decisive role in preventing a catastrophe.Nobody wants a world war, except Zelensky. What happened only NATO's fleet of E spy planes over Ukraine can know. Biden may know, but we will never know.As I reported last night,

Lol, 9 months later you still believe they're capable of a world war, with what equipment?

The only one who's afraid is Putin himself.

Also regardless of whose missile it is, it's caused by the war Russia started. Every single deaths, intended or accidental, are thus their responsibilities and we will make them pay. We don't even need a court or investigations.

[Nebaki]

But you don't typically send a 3 star General to a war zone to conduct an investigation like this, you typically send in civilian/private team(s)) for that sort of work.

Which is nothing else then a Lieutenant general which probably have too an degree in some sort of Rocket Science? a Military has too his own Departments for Investigations aswell own Scientists. Some of them are even part of Military itself and are granted a Military rank for a promotion.

For you maybe it would be someone like Kerim Kerimov? I don´t know who is current in charge of russian space program.

Exactly, the Russians have satellites etc., so it will be impossible to hide (they know muricans are there).

Really why they haven´t already proven it then?

So the fear is they will start targeting muricans and this thing will quickly escalate.

So it is just the fear of an "escalation" and nothing else?

But targeting muricans - if you think about it would make sense, as they are spear heading this conflict; hence destoying the muricans would shatter; if not only for the morale, both NATO and Ukranians.

I don´t think that rest of the NATO really needs the so-called "MURICANS" to deal with Russia on their own.

But we could also be staring at a major war if this happens.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Kyriakos]

Lol, 9 months later you still believe they're capable of a world war, with what equipment?

The only one who's afraid is Putin himself.

Also regardless of whose missile it is, it's caused by the war Russia started. Every single deaths, intended or accidental, are thus their responsibilities and we will make them pay. We don't even need a court or investigations.

You don't need conventional equipment to erase the other side in a nuclear war. Hopefully the Usians also don't feel like being erased - or we can just try to see how the world will be with both Russia/US nuked to oblivion, and China/India as the new superpower block.

[AqD]

You don't need conventional equipment to erase the other side in a nuclear war. Hopefully the Usians also don't feel like being erased - or we can just try to see how the world will be with both Russia/US nuked to oblivion, and China/India as the new superpower block.

Of course they don't.

But Putin and his dogs have zero consideration for Russian lives, let alone any Ukrainian lives or anyone else. They'd absolutely use MAD on Ukraine if we don't intend to use ours, and that's why we cannot back down and must support Ukraine till the very end.

We should not treat him as a national leader anymore. He and his circles are rabid dogs with a nuke button and need to be put down by any means possible, breaking diplomatic conventions if necessary.

[conon394]

as they are spear heading this conflict; hence destoying the muricans would shatter; if not only for the morale, both NATO and Ukranians. But we could also be staring at a major war if this happens.

You are really suggesting American troops are spear heading Ukrainian combat operations?

[Coughdrop addict]

You are really suggesting American troops are spear heading Ukrainian combat operations?

It's easier on Russia's collective ego to pretend that they are being defeated by America/NATO and not Ukrainians. It's slightly less humiliating that way. Of course forming your national and military policy on what you wish were true instead of what you know to be true never works out.

The big danger for everyone else is that the more Russia repeats that lie, the more likely it is they will forget it is a lie and come to believe they really are fighting America/NATO, leading to actual attacks on NATO and WWIII.

[Laser101]

It'd be fine if peace is signed and a few days after Russian withdraw people in Crimea holds a referendum to become Ukrainian, and NATO peacekeepers happen to arrive at the same time.

Though taking all land by force is still a much better option. Putin's loss so far is too little. His serfs are disappointed and angry, not devastated and afraid.

I'm not necessarily convinced, given the demographics, that the Crimean population would agree with that. Unless the Ukrainians intend mass ethnic cleansing of the peninsula after taking it (which is not unlikely), they're going to have to manage the issue of a predominantly Russian population with little attachment to Ukraine.

[Cyclops]

You are really suggesting American troops are spear heading Ukrainian combat operations?

I have a mate, a really decent person, but when he is on the max dose of painkillers he starts telling me how many Israeli snipers were found in [insert war zone here] in their uniforms apparently, does the IDF have special ghillie yarmulkes? Its stock propaganda to discover ZOMG! the Sardaukar were wearing Harkonnen uniforms!

I am told there US, UK and Poland have plenty of bodies near the front line, calling in the coordinates and watching for Russians toeing the red lines , but the fingers on the buttons are all Ukrainian. Saves time that way.

A lot of fog in this war, of course but maybe there's some connection between rear are explosions/deaths and US/NATO defined red lines being crossed by Russia. I have often wondered about the wierd performance of Russian air support and so on, but it may be they have their hands tied by firm NATO ultimata that they have to observe or pay clearly defined prices.

[Stario]

Of course they don't.

But Putin...

We should not treat him as a national leader anymore. He and his circles are rabid dogs with a nuke button and need to be put down by any means possible, breaking diplomatic conventions if necessary.

Same could be said about Zelenskyy and his circles of rabid dogs (except the comedian has no nuke button).
Ukraine has been using prohibited heavy weapons, shelling and terrorising residential areas and deliberately targeting civilian areas with no military targets (this is a war crime) and in violation of Minsk accords. A modest account is 13,000 killed in Ukraine's war in Donbas.
The Azov imbedded w Ukranian forces are Neo-Nazis. So by funding Ukranian forces you are also fund Azov. Even US congress demanded a ceasation to sending weapons to the Azov.
Azov (amongs other war crimes) are accused of point-blank execution of Mariupol residents.
(Source: indepedent Journalist Eva Bartlett who has been covering war in Ukraine and is currently in the DPR).

[Alwyn]

Same could be said about Zelenskyy and his circles of rabid dogs (except the comedian has no nuke button).
Ukraine has been using prohibited heavy weapons, shelling and terrorising residential areas and deliberately targeting civilian areas with no military targets (this is a war crime) and in violation of Minsk accords. A modest account is 13,000 killed in Ukraine's war in Donbas.
The Azov imbedded w Ukranian forces are Neo-Nazis. So by funding Ukranian forces you are also fund Azov. Even US congress demanded a ceasation to sending weapons to the Azov.
Azov (amongs other war crimes) are accused of point-blank execution of Mariupol residents.
(Source: indepedent Journalist Eva Bartlett who has been covering war in Ukraine and is currently in the DPR).

Is that the same Eva Barlett who reportedly "pushed conspiracy theories alleging Syrian rescue workers known as the White Helmets were staging fake attacks during the Syrian civil war" (NBC News) - making claims which according to fact checkers were "almost certainly nonsense" (Channel 4 News) - and whose posts on Facebook reportedly get the disclaimer "may be partially or wholly under the editorial control of the Russian government.” (Facebook/NBC News)?

[Stario]

...making claims which according to fact checkers...

Fact checkers 😋 ye nah...cool story Brah 😎

[mishkin]

Okay, noted that you don't like reality checks.