Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[reavertm]

Why haven't the Ukrainians committed ethnic cleansing against the many Russian minorities that still live in Ukraine?

You claimed throughout this thread Ukraine would commit ethnic cleansing and now the Baltics and Poland would be ok with atrocities against Russian minorities or even supportive? Do you any evidence to support these ridiculous claims?

Of course we would, we Poles eat Russian* for lunch.




*dumplings

[Laser101]

Why haven't the Ukrainians committed ethnic cleansing against the many Russian minorities that still live in Ukraine?

The areas with any significant ethnic Russian population (as opposed to Russophone Ukrainians) are still under Russian control.

You claimed throughout this thread Ukraine would commit ethnic cleansing and now the Baltics and Poland would be ok with atrocities against Russian minorities or even supportive? Do you any evidence to support these ridiculous claims?

Because they (for good reason) hate the Russians.
Besides, this is what the Russians have been doing with ethnic Ukrainians, and they'd want to retaliate. I've never claimed that the Ukrainians would do anything to the Russians that the Russians have not already done to them.

[Vanoi]

The areas with any significant ethnic Russian population (as opposed to Russophone Ukrainians) are still under Russian control.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielm...secession/amp/

According to Forbes significant numbers of Russian speaking peoples in Ukraine exist outside of Russian controlled Donbass. 30% in Kyiv alone.

So why are they still there Laser?

Because they (for good reason) hate the Russians.

And yet they fully allow Russian minorities to exist inside their territories and are not being ethnically cleansed out. Odd huh?

Besides, this is what the Russians have been doing with ethnic Ukrainians, and they'd want to retaliate. I've never claimed that the Ukrainians would do anything to the Russians that the Russians have not already done to them.

This is all assumption and nothing more.

[Kyriakos]

Its been decided a long time ago.

Bucharest Summit Declaration
Issued by the Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Bucharest on 3 April 2008



Sweden is behind a wall of NATO countries, they are already safe. Different story.



Of course I seriously believe that it will happen. The EU wants it, Ukraine wants it, it will happen.



You base that on what?



Why would they? Ukraine wants to join the EU so they need to play nice.
Also Ukraine punishes collaboration with 15 years in prison so problematic Crimeans (regardless of ethnicity) wont wait for the recapture of Crimea and will leave on their own.

That's not an argument, "the Eu wants it". To even call it simplistic, would mean exaggerating its complexity. Besides, isn't even your own country's government against Ukraine joining the Eu? (let alone France or Germany). That a slavic group of countries wants it, doesn't mean anything when every country has to approve it.
I also like the thought that "the law that collaborators will be jailed for 15 years" is something that can pass fine in the Eu. Might as well lead them to the desert ala Armenian genocide.
Then again, we were already firmly in fantasy territory with Crimea being controlled by Ukraine. Let's first have the other medium sized euro country currently controlled by Russia in Ukraine, be taken back, before we venture on such imaginings.

[Mithradates]

That's not an argument, "the Eu wants it". To even call it simplistic, would mean exaggerating its complexity. Besides, isn't even your own country's government against Ukraine joining the Eu? (let alone France or Germany). That a slavic group of countries wants it, doesn't mean anything when every country has to approve it.

I am not aware that any EU country is against Ukraine's membership. I believe all EU countries are in favor so yeah, "the EU wants it", simple.

I also like the thought that "the law that collaborators will be jailed for 15 years" is something that can pass fine in the Eu.

Im kind of sure that wartime collaboration carries the same punishment in the EU (here I believe it is 10 years to life)

Then again, we were already firmly in fantasy territory with Crimea being controlled by Ukraine. Let's first have the other medium sized euro country currently controlled by Russia in Ukraine, be taken back, before we venture on such imaginings.

Sure, Kyiv will fall in three days, right?

[Kyriakos]

Where is your proof that "all Eu countries are in favor of Ukraine becoming part of the Eu"? If it's true, should be easy to provide proof.
Not sure what to say to the rest. I don't think such a law is anything but inhumane and intended to drive people off their houses (which you said so yourself was the goal). And I don't get why you think "Kyiv didn't fall!" means "the country-sized area occupied by Russia in Ukraine obviously will be taken back".

[Septentrionalis]

Sure, Turkey has also been in accession talks with the Eu for decades.

What a strange assumption that NATO resolve to incorporate Ukraine in the military union would be somehow tied to another body, the EU, incorporating a different country, Turkey, into a civil union of federal nature. There are many reasons why Turkey is not seen as a fit candidate to EU in its present situation. Those reasons are by no means applicable to NATO wanting to include Ukraine, a country that has shown its ability and willingness to fight against NATO's enemies and to which considerable amount of military support has already been committed.

Of course from a pro-Kremlin point of view it may seem unfathomable that countries would seek mutual safety through voluntary cooperation with no coercion. And how they would extend a helping hand to a nation in peril and to do so only in expectation of friendly reciprocal relations from thereon out. It may be a shocking revelation to some, but countries like the US are not vassalizing countries like Finland. They are not putting up puppet rulers and no one has to fear being poisoned or falling out of a window if all expectations are not met and with a proper display of groveling. If Russia had been the kind of partner the US is, much of Eastern Europe would now be in CSTO instead of NATO.

[Mithradates]

Where is your proof that "all Eu countries are in favor of Ukraine becoming part of the Eu"? If it's true, should be easy to provide proof.

What proof? Nobody is against it, everybody is okay with it. The European Council has already granted Ukraine the status of a candidate for accession to the European Union.

Name one EU country which is against it.

I don't think such a law is anything but inhumane and intended to drive people off their houses (which you said so yourself was the goal).

Collaborators getting what they deserve is "inhumane", okay.

And I don't get why you think "Kyiv didn't fall!" means "the country-sized area occupied by Russia in Ukraine obviously will be taken back".

The Russian winter offensive achieved nothing, the only advance (kind of advance) happens in Bakhmut by Wagner. Yep, the second best army in the world has to rely on a PMC to get things done. The Russian army by now is a mess of unmotivated low morale mobilized civilians, T-55 tanks (for those who doesnt know the 55 refers to the year 1955, it is a museum piece) meanwhile Ukraine almost accidentally is about to encircle Bakhmut and the Ukrainian offensive has not even began yet.

The Russian army is joke, they cant achieve any of their objectives, they will be kicked back to Russia.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

FYI Kyriakos, any area larger than 0.5 square kilometers is country sized.

[Alastor]

What proof? Nobody is against it, everybody is okay with it. The European Council has already granted Ukraine the status of a candidate for accession to the European Union.

Name one EU country which is against it.

Yes, everyone is in favour of it... in theory, while it is some possible future outcome discussion. When it comes to actually doing stuff though, when they are more than just nice words, things tend to get a lot more complicated. I doubt there is much real appetite for Ukraine to actually join. I doubt even hardcore anti-Russian Poland would be content with it as Ukraine joining would undermine their advantages economically within the block. The same goes for places like Romania. I know quite well how beneficial for Poland and Romania outsourcing work there has been in lucrative businesses like technology. I also know quite well how many companies would rather move to Ukraine if not for that pesky little EU membership deficiency. That's just one aspect. The recent friction in regards to farming produce entering Poland from Ukraine freely points to another. Glossing all this over because "Ukraine must join" is simply near-sighted. It will be a long time before Ukraine joins the EU... and that's good news for many disparate interests within the EU.

[Cyclops]

Yes, everyone is in favour of it... in theory, while it is some possible future outcome discussion. When it comes to actually doing stuff though, when they are more than just nice words, things tend to get a lot more complicated. I doubt there is much real appetite for Ukraine to actually join. I doubt even hardcore anti-Russian Poland would be content with it as Ukraine joining would undermine their advantages economically within the block. The same goes for places like Romania. I know quite well how beneficial for Poland and Romania outsourcing work there has been in lucrative businesses like technology. I also know quite well how many companies would rather move to Ukraine if not for that pesky little EU membership deficiency. That's just one aspect. The recent friction in regards to farming produce entering Poland from Ukraine freely points to another. Glossing all this over because "Ukraine must join" is simply near-sighted. It will be a long time before Ukraine joins the EU... and that's good news for many disparate interests within the EU.

Yes its a long road. We could make a Bakhmut joke "they are 95% EU members already" but I think that is played out and you're a serious poster.

I'd say the pragmatic issues are "is the EU and/or NATO plugged into the Ukrainian military architecture effectively". At present expensive transfusions are making Ukraine into a Russian embarrassing machine but the US can do that to a lot of places in the short term. Is this long term sustainable?

My guess is yes, the first steps around allocating leopards and other AFVs, the ammo trail and so on are being put in place. Non-US sources of supply, especially Germany and the rest of the Baltic fringe, are very short runs from the front. Turkey's role is critical, if they firmly choose a side the Russian flank is kicked in, and they have chosen, haven't they?

EU membership will grease this further, and it puts the Russian tanks several steps further back from the Baltic.

If Russia is becoming a Chinese appanage I guess it means NATO morphs into a China restraint device.

[Mithradates]

Yes, everyone is in favour of it... in theory, while it is some possible future outcome discussion. When it comes to actually doing stuff though, when they are more than just nice words, things tend to get a lot more complicated. I doubt there is much real appetite for Ukraine to actually join. I doubt even hardcore anti-Russian Poland would be content with it as Ukraine joining would undermine their advantages economically within the block. The same goes for places like Romania. I know quite well how beneficial for Poland and Romania outsourcing work there has been in lucrative businesses like technology. I also know quite well how many companies would rather move to Ukraine if not for that pesky little EU membership deficiency. That's just one aspect. The recent friction in regards to farming produce entering Poland from Ukraine freely points to another. Glossing all this over because "Ukraine must join" is simply near-sighted. It will be a long time before Ukraine joins the EU... and that's good news for many disparate interests within the EU.

Both Poland and Romania called for immediate candidate status for EU membership for Ukraine, even Hungary wants an accelerated process.
Ukraines accession has 90%+ support in Poland, not everything is about money.

I also know quite well how many companies would rather move to Ukraine if not for that pesky little EU membership deficiency.

Yeah, well, moving companies to Ukraine also have the slightly bigger problems of pontentionaly getting blown up/got stolen by Russian bandits masquerading as an army.

Thanks to Putin and his invasion, a non-EU member, but still a safe place to invest Ukraine is no longer possible.

[Coughdrop addict]

As this before and after comparison of the same street in Bucha shows us, once the bandits are all killed Ukraine will be able to quickly rebuild into a modern state welcomed into NATO and the EU:

https://twitter.com/reshetz/status/1658140219026165766

Amazing what governments can do when there isn't a thuggish dictator hording all of the nation's wealth for himself and his lackeys.

[Alastor]

Both Poland and Romania called for immediate candidate status for EU membership for Ukraine, even Hungary wants an accelerated process.
Ukraines accession has 90%+ support in Poland, not everything is about money.

Yes, words. As I said, words are cheap. Yet a few days ago Poland pressured for a deal that would allow Ukrainian grain to transit to the west without any of it getting in their domestic market. Sth they of course couldn't do if Ukraine was in the EU. Not everything is about money is as naïve a notion as it gets. Either way, even if not everything was about money, most of it still would be. As the good old adage says: "It's the economy, stupid!"

Yeah, well, moving companies to Ukraine also have the slightly bigger problems of pontentionaly getting blown up/got stolen by Russian bandits masquerading as an army.

Thanks to Putin and his invasion, a non-EU member, but still a safe place to invest Ukraine is no longer possible.

Just no. We are talking about an EU Ukraine and that Ukraine won't be on Russia's hitlist or it won't be an EU Ukraine, it would be just Ukraine. So this point is simply moot. If Ukraine was to join the EU it would be perfectly safe for investments, or at least as safe as the likes of Poland is... that supposedly is also under Russian threat.

[Mithradates]

Yes, words. As I said, words are cheap. Yet a few days ago Poland pressured for a deal that would allow Ukrainian grain to transit to the west without any of it getting in their domestic market. Sth they of course couldn't do if Ukraine was in the EU. Not everything is about money is as naïve a notion as it gets. Either way, even if not everything was about money, most of it still would be. As the good old adage says: "It's the economy, stupid!"

You probably cant imagine how surreal it is to see someone arguing that Poland doesnt want Ukraine to join the EU.

Just no. We are talking about an EU Ukraine and that Ukraine won't be on Russia's hitlist or it won't be an EU Ukraine, it would be just Ukraine. So this point is simply moot. If Ukraine was to join the EU it would be perfectly safe for investments, or at least as safe as the likes of Poland is... that supposedly is also under Russian threat.

What I was trying to say: there is only one path for Ukraine to the future, joining the EU.

[Alastor]

You probably cant imagine how surreal it is to see someone arguing that Poland doesnt want Ukraine to join the EU.

Oh of course Poland wants Ukraine to join the EU. At some point, in the future, the far-off indeterminate future.

What I was trying to say: there is only one path for Ukraine to the future, joining the EU.

Except of course for all the other possible paths that don't require that. Again, "it will happen because it must" is not a good argument.

[Kyriakos]

There is an overabundance of "only one" paths. Including for the UK, Scotland in regards to UK, Catalonia etc.
But if the function requires passing your personal wishes, obviously the answer is limited.
At any rate, at the very least wait until the war is over, to start imagining Ukraine will be in the Eu.

[Kyriakos]

After all, neither the US nor Britain are selling energy to EU as a direct result of this war. Help is out of values - gas values, oil values etc.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

That is an interesting way to interpret the world and helps me understand some of the things here. It really must look bleak where no ideal or virtue exists and every action is seen as some sort of selfish attempt for personal gain.

I cannot really blame anyone with that world view for having trouble understanding the western position and the concept of giving billions upon billions in aid to a country under attack. And wanting them rather in EU and NATO than at the mercy of a dictator who has vowed to destroy them as a nation. If solidarity and belief in justice and voluntary cooperation are the stuff of fairytales only, there must be some truly devious world domination plan behind western actions to justify that massive an "investment" with little obvious gain in sight.

We all know that Russia, of course, wouldn't spend billions to help someone. Ask Armenia. Or ordinary Russians, for that matter.

It's what happens when questions of right or wrong are replaced by questions of cash or credit.
What is morality compared to a few rubles to shill for a fascist dictatorship?

[Vanoi]

https://www.businessinsider.com/russ...rce=reddit.com

Three scientists involved in the development of Russia's "unstoppable" Kinzhal missiles have been jailed on charges of treason, in a case that has spread alarm among Russian researchers.

In an open letter Monday, members of Institute of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Siberian Branch, which is based in Novosibirsk, said the arrests were having a chilling effect on research.

The cases showed that "any article or report can lead to accusations of high treason", the open letter said.

"In this situation, we are not only afraid for the fate of our colleagues. We just do not understand how to continue to do our job."

Russian scientists living in fear. The brain drain is very real in Russia.