Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Gaidin]

If Hitler had enough nukes to cause MAD then the alternative to him having the world, in a confrontation, would be the end of the world. Some restraint to avoid such a scenario would have been advisable. There is a reason why the Cold War stayed cold.

You're getting a bit carried away here with this horrible analogy. If we want to assume Hitler's not the kind of crazy person to just use his nukes in the first place, and we were to assume the MAD doctrine would be in place back then, then the 3rd Reich would still be in place because that war would've ended at Hitler's borders, not his bunker. Throwbacks to the 30's style diplomacy is....tiresome.

[Alastor]

Not really. No one's claiming that Russia isn't winning because it's not destroying infrastructure. We all know Russia's there to create a puppet state, not annex. He thinks, however, that Russia can set up a puppet regime that the locals wouldn't resist and overthrow. However we see that in every village and town the Russians enter the locals shout at them, block their way and tell them to leave. Russia isn't wanted there, and neither is any government it tries to force on Ukraine.
I stopped watching the video att the 3 minute mark as it was ridiculous, if there's any other Kremlin propaganda you'd like to share I'm happy to debunk.

You stopped watching at the 3 minute mark, made some inane remark on how wrong it is, yet somehow you debunked it. Yes, of course, that's how debunking stuff works. I can't facepalm your comment enough.

You're getting a bit carried away here with this horrible analogy. If we want to assume Hitler's not the kind of crazy person to just use his nukes in the first place, and we were to assume the MAD doctrine would be in place back then, then the 3rd Reich would still be in place because that war would've ended at Hitler's borders, not his bunker. Throwbacks to the 30's style diplomacy is....tiresome.

I'm not the one getting carried away with this horrible analogy. I didn't raise it and I said repeatedly that it is not apt to make such comparisons and that we should just stop. Then again I also don't see what your disagreement with what I said specifically is. You are reiterating it if anything. Yes if MAD was in place, the war would have ended in Hitler's borders, if there was even a war in the first place, it wouldn't be all or nothing there would be restraint. Hence... Cold War.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

[FONT=Verdana]You stopped watching at the 3 minute mark yet somehow you debunked it. Yes, of course, that's how this works. I can't facepalm your comment enough.

I meant more claims from the rest of the video beyond the ones I addressed in my post.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Hungary will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory

Hungary will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory - FM | Reuters

Orban can't decide, if he is for EU or his buddy Putin.

[bitterhowl]

I meant more claims from the rest of the video beyond the ones I addressed in my post.

After 3 minutes he told for example about sharing guns between locals ordered by officials.
Ofc you may not be interested at listening short witness speech from Kyiv if you're already there now. Otherwise - ?

[nhytgbvfeco2]

After 3 minutes he told for example about sharing guns between locals ordered by officials.

Evidence that it was ordered being? This guys words?

Ofc you may not be interested at listening short witness speech from Kyiv if you're already there now. Otherwise - ?

I have no reason to believe a single word this person says. Does he ever provide proof of even being in Kyiv?

[Alastor]

Evidence that it was ordered being? This guys words?

Zelensky has ordered the men to stay and fight.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/ukrain...s-others-flee/
The claim is anything but farfetched.

I have no reason to believe a single word this person says. Does he ever provide proof of even being in Kyiv?

That is a fair comment, I was wondering the same. Especially since this looked like a repost from a different source. But either way his points sound rational, if it is fake, it would be a minor surprise. Not a major one mind you, I've seen better fakes. Now if only people were this willing to scrutinize our home-made, western takes too. Maybe we'd be much better informed and better off in general.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Zelensky has ordered the men to stay and fight.
https://nypost.com/2022/02/25/ukrain...s-others-flee/
The claim is anything but farfetched.

Not being able to leave the country isn't the same as forcing them to share guns.

[Alastor]

Not being able to leave the country isn't the same as forcing them to share guns.

They were ordered to stay and fight. How will they fight? With their fists? Like I said, the claim is plausible.

[dogukan]

Hungary will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory


Hungary will not allow lethal weapons for Ukraine to transit its territory - FM | Reuters

Orban can't decide, if he is for EU or his buddy Putin.

The whole far right is showing it's true colors: assets of Russian intelligence to divide unified Western reaction.
I just AFD leader criticize NATO and claim legitimacy for Russia's position.

Like I keep saying: Russia exploited the gaps in left vs right of West so good to create an anti-liberal, nationalist, divided West. This only works in the favor of the biggest fish, Russia.

[Vladyvid]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...address-a76653

“Why Do We Need a World if Russia Is Not In It?”: State TV Presenter Opens Show With Ominous Address


one day ago







Rossia 2

I heard russians like to threaten the world with nukes, or nuclear war. Apparently they have no more arguments, only terror. So that is all what Russia is today - a terrorist regime trying to bully the world into submission.

[Alastor]

The whole far right is showing it's true colors: assets of Russian intelligence to divide unified Western reaction.
I just AFD leader criticize NATO and claim legitimacy for Russia's position.

Like I keep saying: Russia exploited the gaps in left vs right of West so good to create an anti-liberal, nationalist, divided West. This only works in the favor of the biggest fish, Russia.

That's a very black and white approach isn't it? If you don't unequivocally condemn Russia and only Russia, you are an anti-liberal, nationalist, divisive Russian stooge. It's not that simple.

Whatever happened to moderation? Whatever happened to open debate?

[bitterhowl]

Evidence that it was ordered being? This guys words?

I have no reason to believe a single word this person says. Does he ever provide proof of even being in Kyiv?

Nope. Just another guy from Kyiv.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ses-to-arm-all

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-ne...ake-advancing/

There were many shootings between groups of those guys at first night even without any Russian troops there. There are many sources in Russian but you don't read in Russian I suppose thus those facts could be avoided.

[PointOfViewGun]

Nope. Just another guy from Kyiv.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ses-to-arm-all

What's wrong with this?

[Sir Adrian]

Putin has nukes. He's already thrown away the cold war rule book. It could be literally 'do or die' for him, in which case he could try a Hiroshima/Nagasaki to force Ukraine on its knees. You think he would be held back by scrupules? It's becoming ever more clear he has his eyes on the history books and damn the consequences. He'll succeed or take his country down with him.

If Putin uses nukes, he gets nuked, and then Russia (and all of humanity) loses big time.

Russia has no hope of winning you say. Then you speak of wishful thinking. Sigh, ok. Do keep in mind that you are evidently wishing for Russia to lose, I'm wishing for the war to end. So the wishful thinking argument, if it even qualifies as one, doesn't really favour you all that much.

I am not sure if you intentionally misread my posts or not but in either case this is top tier concern trolling. And yes, of course I hope Russia loses. Who would want Russia to win? It's a blatant act of blind aggression taken straight from 1940s.

Well, the only way to lose what they have is if it's taken by force. So who will do that? Ukraine? I'm simply taking your point to its logical conclusion. It's not my fault you don't like what that is.

This is not true. Peace between Ukraine and Russia will not involve only Ukraine and Russia. Russia is already collapsing economically. In case of a peace it either accepts the demands of the international community or the sanctions continue. Russia loses the war even if it win on the field of battle.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

Nope. Just another guy from Kyiv.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/...ses-to-arm-all

"President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the government will issue weapons to every citizen who wants to defend Ukraine."
That's not forced. There's nothing wrong with providing weapons to those who want them. Heck, there's also nothing wrong with conscription (Russia does it too, as you well know).

There were many shootings between groups of those guys at first night even without any Russian troops there. There are many sources in Russian but you don't read in Russian I suppose thus those facts could be avoided.

I read Russian, I am Russian, my parents were born in Russia, and for the first time in my life that's a fact that I'm ashamed of, rather than proud.
I don't need Russian state propaganda sources to peddle lies. The shootouts you refer to were with Russian agents working to undermine the democratically elected government in Kiev.

[Alastor]

I am not sure if you intentionally misread my posts or not but in either case this is top tier concern trolling. And yes, of course I hope Russia loses. Who would want Russia to win? It's a blatant act of blind aggression taken straight from 1940s.

Sorry, but I've been called a concern troll in this thread already, you need a more original insult. Neville Chamberlain has also been used FYI.

This is not true. Peace between Ukraine and Russia will not involve only Ukraine and Russia. Russia is already collapsing economically. In case of a peace it either accepts the demands of the international community or the sanctions continue.

I didn't see the international community sitting on the negotiation table. The international community is not a belligerent and I hope it stays that way.

"President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says the government will issue weapons to every citizen who wants to defend Ukraine."
That's not forced. There's nothing wrong with providing weapons to those who want them. Heck, there's also nothing wrong with conscription (Russia does it too, as you well know).

They also said nobody is allowed to leave. That was not a request, that was an order. Come on.

[dogukan]

That's a very black and white approach isn't it? If you don't unequivocally condemn Russia and only Russia, you are an anti-liberal, nationalist, divisive Russian stooge. It's not that simple.

Whatever happened to moderation? Whatever happened to open debate?

Nothing is black and white. The issues the far-right in the West is mobilized against are to an extend real and understandable concerns.

It is the way they are being "geared" that makes Russian involvement clear. This is indeed a very gray area, it is the undisputable weakness of democracies. Ex-KGB agents often mention this. Democracies have these loopholes that can easily be exploited.
It is even more dangerous to start pointing fingers at "agents". Because witch-hunts destroy democracies from inside and if the society falls into that, it again serves the interests of the foreign power that started the disinformation in the first place.

Unfortunately, this is not an issue that is easy to overcome. Because at some point, these become a combination of intelligence planted disinformation and genuine beliefs.

The best way to counter this so far is to be aware of such disinformation campaigns, making the public aware of such actions.
The voters of Trump were all US citizens with genuine concerns. However the social media forces that played certain sub-groups with conspiracies often tie back to Russian intelligence activities.

We have a similar situation in my country. Twitter has recently proven the government-trolls in Turkey and how they perform coodinated disinformation campaigns. The trick with disinformation is that it is designed to create echochambers and prevent common ground for discussion, polarizing society. In that sense, intelligence can target both far right and far left with very different stories.

Again, in my country, there is this certain political-media group that has clearly ties to Russia. In this case it is quite obvious. They are very militarist-nationalist for instance. Fair enough, this is their principles even if I completely disagree with how they present things. But then you see them go against their own principles in certain issues when it favors Russia. This to me gives a clear red flag. (in their case, past juidicial process have already shown their ties to "eurasianist" clique in the military which are tied to Russian intelligence)

The European far right too is an asset for Russians. Just like communist parties during the cold war were assets to USSR. Does that mean people cannot hold communist beleifs and ideals? Putting "bans" on certain ideologies itself is a paradox of a democracy. But it also comes with the "paradox of tolerance".

The decision of Orban is also a clear sign of how his right-wing movement has ties to Russia. Brexit process was also shown to be targetted actively by Russian intelligence. So far one of the best counters to such disinformation operations is to reveal their ties and explain the logic behind Russian intelligence apparatus. Something they've been doing since the USSR.

All of these do not change the reality you mention. But it is also a rational tool for Russia to exploit and we have to be careful with it. And unfrotunately, the best remedy, the most rational reaction to this without compromising democratic values is the reveal the reality at every opportunity. Russians are relentless in their disinformation and conspiracy spreading. West has to be relentless in revealing shady ties. But the information war was going in favor of Russians for so long. The exploit every event to create an anti-liberal ideological movement (the most revent being the "covid-hoax")

[Alastor]

@dogukan
I often read your posts and generally respect your opinion. I do agree with much of what you are saying in this latest post. My problem is that the western response to this disinformation veers increasingly towards the authoritarianism it's supposed to be combatting. You mention the Paradox of tolerance, yes, Popper spoke of a threat to open societies that comes with it. But is the answer then the deliberate disestablishment of this open society by those that should be championing it? if yes, how is it better than letting the Paradox do its job in the first place? The end result is the same.

[Condottiere 40K]

1. If you look at this from the military point of view, something is very wrong with this picture.

2. Most of us know that if you invade Russia, there are certain times of the year to do that.

3. As I understand it, despite the Ukraine being tank country, current conditions are sludge, which is one reason that the Russians are stuck following the highway.

4. Despite this, the Russians should have been much farther along their time schedule.

5. I like studying the Russian military, since I've always assumed that they must know what they are doing, and must know something.

6. For the past five years, we have been inundated with videos showing their new equipment and how training has vastly improved.

7. So, exactly where are the best and brightest of the Russian forces, because they don't appear to be spearheading the Russian invasion.

8. Or, are they?

9. Or, maybe there's an internal resistance in the officer corps, and they are deliberately going slow, if not outright sabotaging the war effort.

A. One thing they do know, is that if they commit war crimes, their boss might get away with it, but they will be hunted down.

B. Going by mythology, the Spetsnaz should have decapitated the Ukrainian leadership by now, destroyed all the command and control centres, and occupied the political and administrative buildings.

C. Exactly why isn't the Russian air force running roughshod over everything that moves on the ground?

D. The Indians are certainly wondering if all that hardware they bought from the Russians is essentially a pig in a poke.

E. Information has trickled out that the invasion was orchestrated and planned from the top.

F. Apparently, Putin actually believed that his troops would be welcomed as liberators.

G. The existence of kill lists would certainly motivate any Ukrainian to fight to the death, since he could either die defending his home, or get executed in a gulag.

H. What should have been a campaign of shock and awe, has devolved into a war of attrition.

I. Every day that the Ukrainians can hold on to their cities, is a day that more military aid will pour in.

J. Every Russian conscript that is killed or wounded, will increase the pressure in Moscow domestically.

K. Every tank and aircraft destroyed will hurt Putin personally, since he won't care about how many troops die.

M. In fact, the Russian military may have over reached in the Ukraine, and may actually wreck itself and never recover.

O. Because Putin is going to have to replace all those dead conscripts and destroyed vehicles, and demographically, that might not be possible for the troops, and financially, nor for the vehicles and weapon systems.

P. The cynical point of supporting the Ukrainian armed forces is to bleed the Russian military white.

Q. This is how it stands at the moment, without considering some possible foreseeable developments.

R. Kiev and Kharkov become this generation's Leningrad and Stalingrad.

S. This stalls Russia's advance indefinitely.

T. The Ukrainians get resupplied from Europe and send in their newly equipped forces to envelope the Russian forces.

U. Or we get Grozny.

V. In which case, possible Russian military mutiny, and a no fly zone due to public pressure.

W. Because this is in Europe, and the difference between Grozny, Sarajevo and Kiev, is that these are white Christians.

X. Speaking of Stalingrad, the Ukrainians have run out of smallarms to distribute, so maybe there will be a reservists following to pick up rifles no longer utilized.