Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[Alastor]

Prigozhin now is in open revolt. He may still claim this is not a coup, but it is definitely an attempt to do exactly that. This couldn't have come at a worst time for Russia militarily either. Ukraine's offensive was floundering as they couldn't penetrate Russian defenses, now it's a prime opportunity for Ukraine to renew their assault. This alone betrays Prigozhin for the mercenary that he is. Had he actually cared for Russia, as he claimed, he wouldn't have put his ego above his own country. He claims to be better than Shoigu and co, but he is no different than what he claims Shoigu to be. A power hungry oligarch willing to sacrifice his countrymen for his own gain. Then again, I suppose that's not really news.

What is news, is that for what seems to be the first time, Wagner has openly defied Putin personally and called for his removal:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...593004475.html

'Vladimir Putin made wrong choice… Russia will have new president soon', says Wagner Group

[Sar1n]

Prigozhin now is in open revolt. He may still claim this is not a coup, but it is definitely an attempt to do exactly that. This couldn't have come at a worst time for Russia militarily either. Ukraine's offensive was floundering as they couldn't penetrate Russian defenses, now it's a prime opportunity for Ukraine to renew their assault. This alone betrays Prigozhin for the mercenary that he is. Had he actually cared for Russia, as he claimed, he wouldn't have put his ego above his own country. He claims to be better than Shoigu and co, but he is no different than what he claims Shoigu to be. A power hungry oligarch willing to sacrifice his countrymen for his own gain. Then again, I suppose that's not really news.

What is news, is that for what seems to be the first time, Wagner has openly defied Putin personally and called for his removal:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...593004475.html

Yep. I believe it's a mutual annihilation scenario, with one of the oligarchs rising to the top in the aftermath. The amount of destruction and crippling of Russian forces should give them enough pretext to withdraw from Ukraine, not to mention the possibility of revolt in some outlying republics like Chechnya.

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

1917 wasn't any spontaneous revolution; it was brought by Germany desperately trying to win ww1 and to hell with the consequences, so they sent Lenin (formerly imprisoned in Germany) to St. Petersburg with enough money to start mayhem.
And while Germany still lost the war, we ended up with the USSR, so even worse.

That said, Wagner has no popular support, and of course it is a merc group, ie the worst of the worst regarding the people there. best case scenario would be an easy defeat for them, but it's not assured.

And Lenin first coup in spring / summer of 1917 failed, so he flied to Helsinki.

Later he could return to Russia and start the October Revolution, because Kerenski had lost all public support by continuing WW I.

OT: Germany will deliver in the next weeks 15 more Gepards to Ukraine and till the end of the year 30 more. Plus two more Iris T - SLM in 2023 and four more in 2024.


Germany delivers 45 more Gepard tanks to Ukraine

Germany will provide Ukraine with more Gepard anti-aircraft tanks. However, Brigadier General Christian Freuding sees a weak point.

Germany intends to provide Ukraine with 45 more Gepard anti-aircraft tanks in its defense against Russia by the end of the year. This was announced by the head of the Ukraine Situation Center in the Ministry of Defence, Brigadier General Christian Freuding, in Die Welt on Sunday. 34 Gepards have been delivered, 15 more will be added in the coming weeks. "In addition, towards the end of the year we want to deliver up to 30 more Gepard tanks in cooperation with the USA," said Freuding.

The general sees the anti-aircraft defense as a key weakness in the Ukrainian army's current counter-offensive. "We do what we can. But despite all this, does Ukraine have enough air defense and anti-aircraft defenses? Clear no!” said Freuding. In addition to the Gepard tanks, the Iris-T SLM air defense systems are designed to strengthen Ukraine's defense capability. According to Freuding, these have hit rates of "almost 100 percent". Two of them have already been delivered. "Two more will follow this year, four more in 2024," said the general.

https://www.berliner-zeitung.de/news...aine-li.362492

[Condottiere 40K]

I did say this was going to end in a mutiny.

I was just off by a year.

[reavertm]

This alone betrays Prigozhin for the mercenary that he is. Had he actually cared for Russia, as he claimed, he wouldn't have put his ego above his own country.

Actually it's the opposite. Prighozin is the way for Russia to end the war. He's been recently telling how it is, that war in Ukraine is just a blunder and landgrab and not effort to defend anyone.
He admitted that Russia has been provoking all millitary exchanges since 2014 and said, war doesn't serve anyone in Russia.
He should be your anti-war champion.
In this sense, we could say he cares for Russia deeply and doesn't want Russians to die in pointless war. We should all support efforts that make Russians unable to continue war in Ukraine.
In the name of peace. Anyone who supports Putin, Shoigu and others in this coup, is pro-war.

[Cyclops]

Actually it's the opposite. Prighozin is the way for Russia to end the war. He's been recently telling how it is, that war in Ukraine is just a blunder and landgrab and not effort to defend anyone.
He admitted that Russia has been provoking all millitary exchanges since 2014 and said, war doesn't serve anyone in Russia.
He should be your anti-war champion.
In this sense, we could say he cares for Russia deeply and doesn't want Russians to die in pointless war. We should all support efforts that make Russians unable to continue war in Ukraine.
In the name of peace. Anyone who supports Putin, Shoigu and others in this coup, is pro-war.

I think Wagner isn't Russia, and I do not trust their leader. He may be saying what we want to hear, I think that is probably opportunistic.

[Alastor]

Actually it's the opposite. Prighozin is the way for Russia to end the war. He's been recently telling how it is, that war in Ukraine is just a blunder and landgrab and not effort to defend anyone.
He admitted that Russia has been provoking all millitary exchanges since 2014 and said, war doesn't serve anyone in Russia.
He should be your anti-war champion.
In this sense, we could say he cares for Russia deeply and doesn't want Russians to die in pointless war. We should all support efforts that make Russians unable to continue war in Ukraine.
In the name of peace. Anyone who supports Putin, Shoigu and others in this coup, is pro-war.

You seriously think anything Prigozhin has said in an attempt to slander his enemies and justify his revolt is trustworthy? You have got to be joking.

And I don't see how this is a way to end war if it leads to a potentially more catastrophic civil war within Russia. That would be more war, not less.

[Kyriakos]

Indeed. Let's not forget that Wagner was termed nazi by all western media since forever. Pri certainly isn't democratic nor peace-loving, he is the leader of a merc group fcs

[conon394]

Prigozhin now is in open revolt. He may still claim this is not a coup, but it is definitely an attempt to do exactly that. This couldn't have come at a worst time for Russia militarily either. Ukraine's offensive was floundering as they couldn't penetrate Russian defenses, now it's a prime opportunity for Ukraine to renew their assault. This alone betrays Prigozhin for the mercenary that he is. Had he actually cared for Russia, as he claimed, he wouldn't have put his ego above his own country. He claims to be better than Shoigu and co, but he is no different than what he claims Shoigu to be. A power hungry oligarch willing to sacrifice his countrymen for his own gain. Then again, I suppose that's not really news.

What is news, is that for what seems to be the first time, Wagner has openly defied Putin personally and called for his removal:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world...593004475.html

Quibble I not say Ukraine's offensive is floundering - hard to say that unless you expected one week wonders.

On Prigozhin. Look I don't want to say you are wrong in your description but I do think the situation is a bit more subtle. Clearly Wagner made bank on being Mercenaries in the 3rd world. Hiring away ex Russian contract soldiers with a better deal and pay. And in Africa or Syria could run with ROEs that say France or the US would not allow so likely had a easier time in bush war. But he and guys were tossed into WW1. I really don't think he or his men which is his power based signed up for that. The general staff decision to try and take away his independence seems like the operative factor in this (and quite possibly he had some sense that a window was in his future) . He may not be being a loyal Russian but he does seem to be being at least loyal to his men.

[Alastor]

He may not be being a loyal Russian but he does seem to be being at least loyal to his men.

Is he though? He is a mercenary captain who made his fortune throwing prisoners in a meat grinder. i don't see how he values his men as anything more than tools for his own aggrandisement tbh. And before Putin he was just some nobody ex-con, yet he is not loyal to Putin either even though he owes his ascendancy to him. He openly challenged Putin, Russia's legitimate/elected leader, earlier today. It is interesting to note that this is the first time in recent years where Putin is directly challenged like that. This must be a shock for the average Russian watching this. As the old saying goes in Russia "the czar (president) is good, the boyars (oligarchs) around him are bad", to openly defy the leader of the country takes the Russian state down a very dangerous path, both politically/militarily but also psychologically/morally. Prigozhin does not seem to care about any of that. And yes, this is absolutely in part Putin's fault for allowing things to reach this point, but that doesn't make Prigozhin the good guy here.

Either way, going away from that for a moment, I think a better question right now is who backs him? Prigozhin has openly talked about a "new president". So who is this new president that he has in mind? I doubt Prigozhin thinks it can be himself. Unless aside from mercenary he is also delusional.

[Copperknickers II]

The question now is, what chance does Wagner have of putting up a serious fight against Putin? Do they have any backing from oligarchs? Is there any evidence coming in of defectors from the army to Wagner? Do they actually have the firepower to outgun the army, if they stay loyal to the Kremlin? That's the main issue right now. Otherwise this is just going to end in Prigozhin being locked up in the cell next to Navalny (if he's lucky).

Also, what will Ukraine do? Will they go on a counteroffensive? It seems like a good time. On the other hand it might be better for them to wait a bit - the last thing they'd want is to galvanize the Russians into unifying just when they are descending into civil war.

[Kyriakos]

He isn't going to be locked up anywhere. He will die.
That is, I don't wish to contemplate any idea where this doesn't end reasonably soon - for if that happens, you will have a ffa in Russia, which is far more dangerous than the current situation.

[reavertm]

You seriously think anything Prigozhin has said in an attempt to slander his enemies and justify his revolt is trustworthy? You have got to be joking.

And I don't see how this is a way to end war if it leads to a potentially more catastrophic civil war within Russia. That would be more war, not less.

No Russian linked to Kremlin, this includes Prighozin, can be trusted in anything right now so we don't really know what his motives are.
Vlad Vexler, that Russian-Ukrainian-British political philosopher I referred to in some other post, thinks Prighozin wants to in a way legitimise (from legal standpoint, not just as mercenary which is outlawed in Russia) himself within Kremlin. What Vlad doesn't think is possible anytime soon and I think is Prighozin ultimate goal is replacing Shoigu.
That would explain why he went after Shoigu and I think did not explicitly target Putin just yet.
There is information mess right and situation is dynamic so it remains to be seen.
I think Prighozin is opportunistic rather than principled, but his escapades undermine Russian capability to wage war in Ukraine and those who want Russians out of Ukrainie welcome such turn of events. I don't see how it's open to debate. Do you want Russians out of Ukrainie Alastor? I formulated this question carefully, so don't dogde it by "I want peace". Everyone wants peace. You just wanted it so far at Ukraine's expense for some reason.

As for your last point.
Let me put your, EU centric hat, Alastor.
Why should we, EU citizens, care about civil war or more war within Russia. To be more specific why should we care about it more than immigration and economic crisis caused by war in Ukrainie for instance.
If Russia is out of Ukrainie and hypothetically descends into civil war, EU could trade with all sides like Europe did in American Civil War. I don't see it not benefiting EU.
Alastor's hat off :p

I'm not "hopeful" however and think this "coup" will not last very long.

[Copperknickers II]

He isn't going to be locked up anywhere. He will die.
That is, I don't wish to contemplate any idea where this doesn't end reasonably soon - for if that happens, you will have a ffa in Russia, which is far more dangerous than the current situation.

FFA... Forward Freight Agreement? Future Farmers of America? Frustratingly Flat A**? Help me out here, lad.

[dogukan]

Just so we are clear on this right now: Prigozhin, a man who is part of the inner inner circle of Kremlin elite, an oligarch, the coordinator of Russia's foreign adventures in ME, Africa and Latin America as well as Ukraine came out and said what many have been saying for so long:
-this war is not about nazis, nato, american imperialism, Ukranian bombing of Russian people
- this war is about the nationalist fantasies of the military elite
- this war is about the desire to plunder Ukraine's resources due to the dying Russian system

The question now is, what chance does Wagner have of putting up a serious fight against Putin? Do they have any backing from oligarchs? Is there any evidence coming in of defectors from the army to Wagner? Do they actually have the firepower to outgun the army, if they stay loyal to the Kremlin? That's the main issue right now. Otherwise this is just going to end in Prigozhin being locked up in the cell next to Navalny (if he's lucky).

Also, what will Ukraine do? Will they go on a counteroffensive? It seems like a good time. On the other hand it might be better for them to wait a bit - the last thing they'd want is to galvanize the Russians into unifying just when they are descending into civil war.

On what chance Prigozhin has; it looks slim but with turning moments that rapidly grow his chances. This is likely why we are not seeing a decive reaction because if a reaction fails, it will reveal the regime to be even weaker (e.g - a Russian force confronts Wagner, surrenders and switches sides. Such an event can rapidly turn the tide in favour of Wagner as peopl can start to believe things are changing)

First of all, this is very unlikely a spontenous event. Prigozhin did not just went angry at a bombing and decided to race to Moscow. He must have made some planning before he lose all his power (as per Rus MoD's new orders).

He has many sympathizers. He has been shaping Russian information space for the past year, talking about corrupt Russian bureaucracy and how he is a real patriot. This is important because Russian people are quiet scared to make a move on the regime but can show their dissent by rallying behind "another patriot". At least in Russia, that is how opposition has been working so far.

Many people have lost relatives on the battlefields. People are getting sick of war. Soldiers are likely sick of dying in a war that is not defensive and not that "just" given how resistant Ukranians are. So Prigozhin might also be relying on the fact that he is very popular and soldiers as well as people are sick of the way things are.

There are likely many in the Russian elite and military that are not happy with things are. So he must have connections to them as well.

As for the practicality of the process:
- he seized Rostov, the heart of Russian operations in Ukraine in 2 hours. Seized tons of equipment including airfields. He is holding the whole Ukranian front in his hands. He has secured the high ranking generals in Rostov.
Russian army is mostly in Ukraine and they are all tied to Rostov. So the army is stuck and cannot turn back to deal with an internal affair in a few days. This is also happening during Ukr's offensive which likely pins the troops.
There is literally not solid formation inside Russia to stop wagner besides some likely damaging air strikes.
The morale of any resisting force can suddenly disintegrate too. Remember, this is an autocratic, authoritarian regime. People's loyalties are not to a cause but to power.
In that sense, he has a lot of chance.

The problem is that a coup has to be lightning fast. Already much of the elite and perhaps even Putin have fled Moscow. They can easily organize their rule from elsewhere and suppress the putschists if Wagner cannot rally the masses. The media too is still in regime's hand. Taking over media and key government institutions/officials is the most important part of a coup.

[Kyriakos]

FFA... Forward Freight Agreement? Future Farmers of America? Frustratingly Flat A**? Help me out here, lad.

FFA= Free for all ^^ Popular term in online strategy games; "everyone for himself/every faction for itself".

[Alastor]

I think Prighozin is opportunistic rather than principled, but his escapades undermine Russian capability to wage war in Ukraine and those who want Russians out of Ukrainie welcome such turn of events. I don't see how it's open to debate. Do you want Russians out of Ukrainie Alastor? I formulated this question carefully, so don't dogde it by "I want peace". Everyone wants peace. You just wanted it so far at Ukraine's expense for some reason.

You don't get it do you? Ukraine's leadership is not a bunch of innocent bystanders, not by a long shot. I don't care any more if Zelensky remains in power than if Putin does, so long as people don't end up suffering for it. The innocents here are the Ukrainian people in general, caught in the cross-fire of warring interests, but the Russian people are just as innocent. What good is a peace where the Ukrainian people are safe, but even more Russian people suddenly are not? I struggle to see that as a win for humanity, or peace. Unless of course you hate Russians specifically and don't care for their safety. But you don't hate Russians now, do you?

As for your last point.
Let me put your, EU centric hat, Alastor.
Why should we, EU citizens, care about civil war or more war within Russia. To be more specific why should we care about it more than immigration and economic crisis caused by war in Ukrainie for instance.
If Russia is out of Ukrainie and hypothetically descends into civil war, EU could trade with all sides like Europe did in American Civil War. I don't see it not benefiting EU.
Alastor's hat off :p

Right, why would we, as EU citizens, care if our largest neighbour, our largest nuclear armed neighbour no less, descends into chaos and civil war. If Russia descends into civil war, no-one knows what follows. Not you, not me, not anyone. Last time Russia descended into a full-blown civil war, we ended up with the Soviet Union. This time, who knows... but whatever it is, chances that it will be good for us are slim. At best it will be another crisis we'll have to somehow deal with. At worst a prelude to a series of crises and more.

[Kyriakos]

And there isn't any point in believing that if Russia ended up destabilized, there'd be another puppet like Yeltsin rising.
This is grating, because we simply have to wait and see what happens. But imo this has been the most dangerous development in what already had been an far too volatile situation.

[conon394]

@dogukan

Good points. I think its also worth noting that since Putin thought he had an easy win it the National Guard and FSB security troops who absorbed a lot of losses in the Ukrainian success last year. Those are the Guys who were not about to stop the stunt incursions a few weeks ago and should be around now to be loyal and deal with Wagner.

[Copperknickers II]

Reports coming in now that sections of the Russian army are defecting to join Wagner - specifically those in Lipetsk region. However, Kadyrov in Chechnya is standing by Putin. Private jets heading out of Moscow en masse as well as Putin's plane. This is getting interesting.