Russia, US, Ukraine, and the Future

[conon394]

So he got his pound of flesh for showboating but Erdogan should be careful he is not making friends. Russia won't be happy and NATO countries will remain annoyed.

[z3n]

I'm not saying a coup wasn't part of the plan, but that's something you'd have known if you bothered to comprehend what you're reading.
I'll explain what I'm saying this way: I went to the supermarket and bought every single item there. You describe my actions as "Oh, you went to buy milk." I'm saying "No, I didn't go to buy milk, I went to buy every item. Milk was just part of that."

You directly stated that the Russians didn't go for a coup.

None of which even approaches in scale the unjustified Russian invasion of Ukraine. You're comparing punching one person to a mass shooting.

The definition of strategy greatly differs from the definition of scale, I'm quite surprised you don't know this.

What are you on about? Kennedy literally withheld air support to the operation soon after it started.

This claim is both unsourced and easily proven false.

You don't need 5 million soldiers to overwhelm the Baltic states. As for the rest of your hyperbole, many people said the same about a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Heck, I myself didn't think it would happen up until 2 or so weeks before it actually did. I didn't think Putin would be that stupid.

We saw the buildup of troops for months; it was pretty obvious it'd end up happening when negotiations failed.

Sigh. Let's see, invasions of Russia from the west: ww2, maybe ww1 but I wouldn't call that an invasion of Russia, what's next.. Napoleon? And then the time of troubles in the early 17th century? And that's.. literally it. That's all of the "constant invasions of Russia from the west". All other times Russia was fighting in the west were either the result of Russian agression, or involvement in conflicts not in Russian territory.
So yes, I disagree with those particular historians, in that I don't think 4 times in roughly 500 years constitutes a constant.

Yet another claim contradicting military historians, without stating sources. Not really surprised by this point.

It is required when said countries vehemently do not want to be buffer states bordering one of the most aggressive countries in our day and age.

From the official NATO point of view the Baltics are a tripwire as they're very weak militarily speaking and horrible from a strategic perspective, they're simply buffer states that delay any potential advance. The Baltics are strategically natural buffer states, so that's not really surprising.

Obviously the Russians haven't admitted it. What do you want me to quote, american intel? The Americans named February 16th as the date the invasion would start.

Even if you did link something to American sources, which you didn't, only Russian archives can reveal the true state of affairs in 60+ years.

Because they're separatists, but they've been backed by Russia the whole time. They're Russian puppet states, like the DNR and LNR.
Also, civil unrest is not civil war.

That's another unsourced claim you're making. According to my links, they have had aspirations to become independent since being in the USSR.

But you've described territory controlled by South Ossetia and Abkhazia as part of a civil war, and then mentioned 20% controlled by Russia. Where is that 20%? You're speaking of territory controlled by the aformentioned 2 puppet states. This means that the Russian invasion in 2008 changed nothing in regards to this being a "civil war".

Nothing changed? This looks like another unsourced claim. You realize the entire western world called it a Russian invasion in 2008, right? Obviously it became external at that point, else they wouldn't have termed it a Russian invasion.

Russia has no right to decide who Ukraine can and can't ally.

The basic fact is that a Russian military occupation supersedes any talk of rights, and brings things down to "will we look weak or have to go to war, if a state occupied by Russia joins NATO?".

[Pontifex Maximus]

Turkey has finally relented and dropped its opposition to the NATO membership candidacies of Finland and Sweden.

Turkey agrees to back Finland, Sweden NATO bid: Finnish president: Finnish and Swedish leaders met Turkey’s Erdogan ahead of the NATO summit to try to get him to drop objections to them joining the military alliance.

Very well. Pay up, Euros. Your bill is due. We accept most major credit cards, checks.

[Laser101]

Where did I say that Russia would launch such an invasion tomorrow? I've said it multiple times on this thread, Russia goes to war every 6-8 years. There's no threat to the Baltics today, there might in 6-8 years.

At the current rate, I'm not certain they'll be able to replace losses that quickly. The current war has been far more costly in materiel and manpower than all of Russia's previous efforts since 1945 combined.

Ukraine has the same problem, you don't see it invading neighbouring states. The USA's borders with its neighbours are also big wide and open, yet you don't see the US army marching into Ottawa.

Well, that's probably because Ukraine has only existed as an independent state for 30 years, and the paradigm shifts that should have rendered such concerns obsolete is older than that. Unfortunately the Russians never seem to have realized this.

South Ossetia intends to hold a referendum on joining Russia. There's no desire for independence, there's desire to please big daddy.
Abkhazia is the only one that doesn't openly seek to unite with Russia.

True (although it'd probably be more accurate to say they seek unification with North Ossetia rather than Russia as such). Probably the more relevant question is whether or not separation from Georgia has genuine popular support, which to the best of my knowledge is the case.

[Roma_Victrix]

Very well. Pay up, Euros. Your bill is due. We accept most major credit cards, checks.

Sweden and Finland (states that were already part of the EU with its own security guarantees) *pay* into NATO by having their own modern militaries that stand as a bulwark against Russian expansionism. The United States is a superpower and dominant member of NATO, but it is our network of allies that ensures peace, stability, and geopolitical counterweights positioned around western Russia. The Russian Federation has very clearly made itself into an adversary in trying to emulate the fallen USSR. Creating additional alliances with capable states possessing quality military forces like those of Sweden and Finland is a boon to NATO, not some burdensome debt of the USA as you obnoxiously seem to think.

[conon394]

Very well. Pay up, Euros. Your bill is due. We accept most major credit cards, checks.

What exactly do you mean?

I really hope it not some reference to Trumps rhetoric...


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@z3n

Yet another claim contradicting military historians, without stating sources. Not really surprised by this point.

Err so you also support that Lithuanian and Poland have a valid historical fear of Russian aggression and can act accordingly?

[AqD]

@z3n

Err so you also support that Lithuanian and Poland have a valid historical fear of Russian aggression and can act accordingly?

Also Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Czech, Hungary, Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria. And the list does not include Siberian tribes owning rich oil fields but conquered, culture-genocided, deliberately kept poor for centuries and brainwashed to be cannon fodders.

Given the past, of course Putin is afraid - like a serial killer losing the weapon arm and now scared of his victims' families.

Justice is coming.

[z3n]

What exactly do you mean?

I really hope it not some reference to Trumps rhetoric...


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@z3n



Err so you also support that Lithuanian and Poland have a valid historical fear of Russian aggression and can act accordingly?

Poland and Lithuania are a conventional NATO tripwire. Not sure why you want me to support that, but sure, the worlds already destabilized by this point as the 50 western experts predicted.

[Pontifex Maximus]

Sweden and Finland (states that were already part of the EU with its own security guarantees) *pay* into NATO by having their own modern militaries that stand as a bulwark against Russian expansionism. The United States is a superpower and dominant member of NATO, but it is our network of allies that ensures peace, stability, and geopolitical counterweights positioned around western Russia. The Russian Federation has very clearly made itself into an adversary in trying to emulate the fallen USSR. Creating additional alliances with capable states possessing quality military forces like those of Sweden and Finland is a boon to NATO, not some burdensome debt of the USA as you obnoxiously seem to think.

I don't care about some sort of European mega state, commies gonna commie. We could crush Russia without any NATO allies, and our umbrella of protection is the only thing Europe has to stop a Russian advance. Boohoo for Europe, but we are your only salvation. So yes, taking on two more whiny European countries who refuse to pay what they agreed to pay for defense is definitely an added burden on the US, especially when said European states do not pay their dues and then gloat about all their glorious social programs and mock the US when we guarantee your defense and have since 1945. The chickens are coming home to roost.

What exactly do you mean?

I really hope it not some reference to Trumps rhetoric...

Depends, do you mean where NATO "allies" default on their promises and have no consequences or where Trump predicted Germany and eventually all of Western Europe would be reliant upon Russian energy imports and now they are screwed. I don't really need to ask since both of those predictions have come true. I do love the smug European attitude though, two centuries of world wars and genocide has not dampened European arrogance.

[swabian]

How hard is it for us to hang on?

The Russians have an actual genocide-like plan for Ukraine and their wreckage leaks information about their ethical and political stance: It's "Russia has to win, no matter what. Local resistance is to be broken, we russify the Ukrainian population and everyone who opposes us gets destroyed, preferably physically, and we bring along the gear for removing a mass of civilian bodies with us".

There is no ethical question here anymore. Russia has to be humiliated utterly. Do not pity them. They need to be defeated.

[Pontifex Maximus]

How hard is it for us to hang on?

The Russians have an actual genocide-like plan for Ukraine and their wreckage leaks information about their ethical and political stance: It's "Russia has to win, no matter what. Local resistance is to be broken, we russify the Ukrainian population and everyone who opposes us gets destroyed, preferably physically, and we bring along the gear for removing a mass of civilian bodies with us".

There is no ethical question here anymore. Russia has to be humiliated utterly. Do not pity them. They need to be defeated.

Hahaha, oh god. Can't even make this up any more. The memes are alive.

"Russia's threatened attack on Rumania was in the last analysis equally intended to gain possession of an important base, not only of Germany's but also of Europe's economic life, or at least destroy it. The Reich, especially since 1933, sought with unending patience to gain States in Southeast Europe as trading partners. We therefore also had the greatest interest in their internal constitutional consolidation and organization. Russia's advance into Rumania and Greece's tie-up with England threatened to turn these regions, too, within a short time into a general theatre of war."

I will never understand why we, as Americans, continue to insist on intervening in European forever wars. We gain nothing and lose everything. I wish we would leave all the Euros to just destroy themselves in idiot wars. You're beyond redemption.

[swabian]

The US is mortally intertwined in the global market. This alone should bring out the single minded stoic in you in this case. But it's more than this.

[Pontifex Maximus]

We shouldn't be, but sellout America last idiots like Biden have sold us out. But still, no. Europe, for once take care of your own problems without an American bank roll.

[swabian]

The US does act out of self interest already. It always does, surprise.

[Pontifex Maximus]

And I am here to tell you I disagree with and reject whatever "logic" has gone into Euro-intereventionalism. Our corrupt globalist overlords surely act out of self interest.

[swabian]

Neither you or me have any say in it. It's just happening man.

[Mithradates]

The Duma made the proposal that conscripts can now convert directly to contract service immediately upon being drafted, allowing conscripts to be legally eligible to fight in Ukraine immediately.
Normaly the contract can be concluded only three months after the start of the service ie. after finishing basic training.
What could go wrong...

"To send the common people to war untrained is to throw them away." —Confucius.

[nhytgbvfeco2]

You directly stated that the Russians didn't go for a coup.

Man, if only this was addressed in the quote you've provided.

The definition of strategy greatly differs from the definition of scale, I'm quite surprised you don't know this.

This claim is both unsourced and easily proven false.

From the White House, US President John F Kennedy cancelled at the last minute the US air strikes that would have neutralised Castro's aviation."The operation had to be as secret as possible and Kennedy gave the CIA three days to re-elaborate a plan that had been under preparation for a whole year" "Kennedy reduced the aircraft from 16 to 8 and urged the CIA to modify the zone and time for the landing." "With suspicions aroused over US participation, Kennedy cancelled the rest of the air strikes, landing a devastating blow against the objectives of the 2506 Brigade, which was left with insufficient air support."

Do keep talking out of your though.

We saw the buildup of troops for months; it was pretty obvious it'd end up happening when negotiations failed.

I naively thought it was merely an attempt to pressure Ukraine, heck the Ukranians said the same. It'll be pretty obvious next time Russia invades too.

Yet another claim contradicting military historians, without stating sources. Not really surprised by this point.

You want a source for what, exactly? Every war Russia ever fought? Do you perhaps need a source for what I've had for breakfast too?
Find me another invasion of Russia from the west. I've given you all 3/4.

From the official NATO point of view the Baltics are a tripwire as they're very weak militarily speaking and horrible from a strategic perspective, they're simply buffer states that delay any potential advance. The Baltics are strategically natural buffer states, so that's not really surprising.

..And?

Even if you did link something to American sources, which you didn't, only Russian archives can reveal the true state of affairs in 60+ years.

I'll wait with bated breath.

That's another unsourced claim you're making. According to my links, they have had aspirations to become independent since being in the USSR.

Of course, which is why they're so eager to unite with Russia. You're hilarious.

Nothing changed? This looks like another unsourced claim. You realize the entire western world called it a Russian invasion in 2008, right? Obviously it became external at that point, else they wouldn't have termed it a Russian invasion.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

What source bruh? I'm using YOUR logic. Pre 2008 parts of Georgia were occupied by south Ossetia and Abkhazia, no Russia. Post 2008 parts of Georgia are occupied by south Ossetia and Abkhazia, no Russia. Ins't that your claim?
So what changed by Russia invading? All territorial disputes are still with factions seceding from Georgia, not with Russia. They just control a bit more.

The basic fact is that a Russian military occupation supersedes any talk of rights, and brings things down to "will we look weak or have to go to war, if a state occupied by Russia joins NATO?".

Did the EU have to look weak or invade Turkey when Cyprus joined the EU while half of it is occupied by Turkey?

[Morticia Iunia Bruti]

Russia retreats from Snake Island - Odessa port is now free again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/30/w...ke-island.html

[Ludicus]

Turkey pushes Finland and Sweden on extradition after deal

Turkey says it will now be pushing for the extradition of 33 "terror" suspects from Finland and Sweden, under a deal that lifted Ankara's objections to the two Nordic states' bids to join Nato. Turkey would ask them to "fulfil their promises", the justice minister said.

Ukraine war live | World | The Guardian

US president Joe Biden has said that he is in favour of supplying new F-16 fighters to Turkey

Swedish and Finnish concessions to Turkish demands are a denial of the foreign policy of both countries. Sweden, which saw itself as a "humanitarian power", had to end the embargo on arms sales to Turkey, extradite "suspected terrorists" from pro-Turkish organizations (which is an ambiguous issue), and investigate and ban the activity of some of them. Meanwhile, Erdogan has guaranteed the purchase of a few more F-16 fighter jets to bomb the Kurds. Although NATO likes to classify itself as an alliance of democracies, Turkey (and not only this country), does not meet the necessary requirements for this classification to be indisputable. Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO was obtained with the eternal sacrifice of the Kurds.